I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th (3 Viewers)

[doomsdaydoc]

Of course you do not need a top 10 QB to be a top receiver, but you need some competence at the QB position. Look how bad Randy Moss was in Oakland and how bad TO was in Buffalo. There seems to be a huge difference between Orton and Leinart. Leinart is going to have trouble getting the ball to anyone other than dump off passes to the backs. This offense could be a total disaster. Steve Smith was shut down for most of last season cause of Delhomme's ineffectiveness. I would be very concerned about Fitz this season- He will get his, but if will not be anything like what he has been accustomed to in the past.

 

[Tusken Raider]

We have an offense that will score fewer points, a coach who plans to pass less, a wr who is already dinged up, and a qb who can't (or hasn't ever) passed the ball deep. And we're still projecting this guy as a top 5 wr? Unless this is a ppr league I have no interest in taking this guy anywhere near his ADP.

He still might be a decent pick in the 2nd round of PPR's because he will likely catch a bunch of short passes, but his upsie is 1200 yards and 9 TD's, but more likely 1000 yards and 7, and thats if the knee doent affect his play.

I agree with both of these postings. Nobody's discounting Fitz's talent, only his opportunities at this point in the season. However, there are WRs in the 1st tier whose situations haven't changed as significantly as Fitz's since last season, & have as much upside without as many questions. Based on his history and ADP, you'd still have to pay a high price to get him. If you believe none of the reasons above to be true, & you don't think of him as much of a risk, snag him. If not, grab another WR you feel safer with. I'd love to have him as my WR2, but at this point, would feel uncomfortable with him leading my WR stable.

 

[bostonfred]

From today's fbg email:

ARI - WR Larry Fitzgerald could play in preseason finale

Source: Kent Somers - The Arizona Republic

Arizona Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt is optimistic WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) will not only play in Week 1, but also for the team's preseason finale, according to Kent Somers, of The Arizona Republic. 'The hardest thing with Larry is slowing him down,' Whisenhunt said. 'If Larry had his preference, he would be back playing next week ... I don't think there's any question in any of our minds now that he'll be ready for the first game. I think he'll be ready for the last preseason game, but obviously that's not something we're pushing to do. We'll see where he is next week.'

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

There's really no need to rush Larry Fitzgerald back for the final preseason game. However, Fitz is a big time competitor and if his knee if right then he will likely be out on the field.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

The point is really moot, he won't be there in the 5th, 4th, or even 3rd rounds

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

I guess I see your point. It's like saying I wouldn't take C.Johnson at 1.12. I do have pick 1.12 and I really wouldn't take C.Johnson, because he won't slide past pick 1.01.So this as I posted is about a poster who is just trying to throw something out there and hope it sticks. Good job. On page 5 ....

 

[Wilbur Wood]

The point is really moot, he won't be there in the 5th, 4th, or even 3rd rounds

Just nabbed him at 3.04 in a PPR (for WR/TE only, not RB). I doubt that he would have slid more than 2 or 3 more slots.Thought about him at 2.09 but passed on him for Ryan Matthews.The QB scene is a mess but that also means that AZ will be playing from behind quite a bit this year and Fitz should garner good garbage time stats.

 

[ditka85]

The point is really moot, he won't be there in the 5th, 4th, or even 3rd rounds

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

I guess I see your point. It's like saying I wouldn't take C.Johnson at 1.12. I do have pick 1.12 and I really wouldn't take C.Johnson, because he won't slide past pick 1.01.So this as I posted is about a poster who is just trying to throw something out there and hope it sticks. Good job. On page 5 ....

What happened to your rankings you were going to post, M=S?

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

The point is really moot, he won't be there in the 5th, 4th, or even 3rd rounds

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

I guess I see your point. It's like saying I wouldn't take C.Johnson at 1.12. I do have pick 1.12 and I really wouldn't take C.Johnson, because he won't slide past pick 1.01.So this as I posted is about a poster who is just trying to throw something out there and hope it sticks. Good job. On page 5 ....

This is awful

 

[kutta]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

This is an interesting point to bring up. The "sky is falling" reactions in here have me wondering what projections some of you have for a guy that has averaged 90 receptions, 1,300 yards, and 9 TDs for his career.To me, the amount of targets Fitz is going to get offsets the downgrade at the quarterback position.

 

[bostonfred]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

That sounds about right. And I think a lot of people predicting Fitz as one of the top WRs agree for the most part - if healthy, he should get enough targets that his floor is in the WR10-20 range. It's just that we see him having enough talent that we see him getting enough TDs and YPR to push him into the top 5 or 10.

 

[Tau837]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

That sounds about right. And I think a lot of people predicting Fitz as one of the top WRs agree for the most part - if healthy, he should get enough targets that his floor is in the WR10-20 range. It's just that we see him having enough talent that we see him getting enough TDs and YPR to push him into the top 5 or 10.

The problem with this is he is generally being drafted high enough that he needs to finish top 4 to return equal value for his draft position. FBG shows his ADP as of 8/23 as 15th overall and WR4. IMO there is a very low probability he will finish in the top 4 WRs or in an appropriate position overall (harder to quantify, since QBs will often be top scorers but not drafted in the top 15).

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

The point is really moot, he won't be there in the 5th, 4th, or even 3rd rounds

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

I guess I see your point. It's like saying I wouldn't take C.Johnson at 1.12. I do have pick 1.12 and I really wouldn't take C.Johnson, because he won't slide past pick 1.01.So this as I posted is about a poster who is just trying to throw something out there and hope it sticks. Good job. On page 5 ....

This is awful

Hey he never said Maroney=analogies

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

I think Lienert is so bad that tis will be like MEGA last year. A few games where his supreme talent shines through, but a lot of frustration and disaapointment.Oh and while u can't necc. predict injuries, I do think that the "lienert hanging him out to dry one too many times" is gonna be the real achilles heel of one of the top 5 WRS in the game talent wise.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

This is an interesting point to bring up. The "sky is falling" reactions in here have me wondering what projections some of you have for a guy that has averaged 90 receptions, 1,300 yards, and 9 TDs for his career.To me, the amount of targets Fitz is going to get offsets the downgrade at the quarterback position.

Hmm, I guess the cards do have more 'weapons' than the lions did last year (ie less chance to 2x/3x team). Any homers chime in on how the cards line is looking?

 

[bostonfred]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

That sounds about right. And I think a lot of people predicting Fitz as one of the top WRs agree for the most part - if healthy, he should get enough targets that his floor is in the WR10-20 range. It's just that we see him having enough talent that we see him getting enough TDs and YPR to push him into the top 5 or 10.

The problem with this is he is generally being drafted high enough that he needs to finish top 4 to return equal value for his draft position. FBG shows his ADP as of 8/23 as 15th overall and WR4. IMO there is a very low probability he will finish in the top 4 WRs or in an appropriate position overall (harder to quantify, since QBs will often be top scorers but not drafted in the top 15).

That's true of most first and second round picks. There aren't many guarantees in fantasy football. Miles Austin has a much bigger risk of falling out of the top 10 imo. He's not the only playmaker on the team anymore. Calvin Johnson wasn't top ten last year. There may be excuses and reasons why not, and people may project him to do very well, but he has a quarterback with even less experience than Leinart, has a new complementary receiver across the field, and a new running back, and has more recent injury issues. There's no guarantee that Calvin does better this year than last, but he's one of the top receivers drafted. How about Wayne with Collie, Garcon and Gonzalez on the field together and Clark arguably taking over as the #1 receiving option on the team? Or Roddy, who sucked out loud the first half of last year and has been consistently decent, but never put up the kind of numbers Fitz has? This is one of those areas where you're separating very similar players, so it's going to come down to personal preference in separating that tier. If nothing had changed last year, Fitzgerald would have stayed in tier one with Andre Johnson and maybe Moss. Now he's in tier two with some of the other guys. I totally understand moving him to the bottom of tier two; that's just not where I'd put him. If people are suggesting he belongs in tier three or four, that's a whole different conversation.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

The point is really moot, he won't be there in the 5th, 4th, or even 3rd rounds

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

I guess I see your point. It's like saying I wouldn't take C.Johnson at 1.12. I do have pick 1.12 and I really wouldn't take C.Johnson, because he won't slide past pick 1.01.So this as I posted is about a poster who is just trying to throw something out there and hope it sticks. Good job. On page 5 ....

What happened to your rankings you were going to post, M=S?

It would of taken 5 pages for me to explain why I had Fitz ranked 15 at WR.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

This thread is a JOKE!

Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.

-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb

-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.

-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the best

Fitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly.

The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.

Fitz has,

Awsome Hands

is one of the best route runners

will see 150 targets

Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

 

[Exit 1]

This thread is a JOKE!Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the bestFitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly. The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.Fitz has,Awsome Handsis one of the best route runnerswill see 150 targets Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

His broken knee doesn't bother you, home skillet?

 

[Tau837]

This thread is a JOKE!Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the bestFitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly. The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.Fitz has,Awsome Handsis one of the best route runnerswill see 150 targets Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

Fitz had awesome hands and was one of the best route runners when he played with Leinart in the past, yet he didn't perform at a top 5 level with Leinart at QB. See my previous post on this.What has changed in your opinion?

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

This thread is a JOKE!Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the bestFitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly. The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.Fitz has,Awsome Handsis one of the best route runnerswill see 150 targets Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

Fitz had awesome hands and was one of the best route runners when he played with Leinart in the past, yet he didn't perform at a top 5 level with Leinart at QB. See my previous post on this.What has changed in your opinion?

Experience, different coach/scheme, more targets w/o BoldinLets really dig into this. Leinart started game 5 (1st start) in 2006 Fitz was injured 1st quarter and DID NOT COME BACK until week 10so lets take week 10 2006 with FITZ comming off a 5 week injury, (week 10 threw week 17) 8 full games played together6-802-3011-1725-46-17-79-15-774-93-14-33-1 This over a full seaon would be 88-1220-8 keep in mind he was coming off a 5 week injury week 10 and as you can see after a couple weeks Fitz was almost avg a TD a game. This is also with Boldin getting targets and NO running game to speak of.The situation in Arizona is MUCH better than it was in 2006 and I fail to see why regression to the above stats would take place. However I do believe better coaching and Fitz fine tunning his game will result in an uptick to the above stats.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

This thread is a JOKE!Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the bestFitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly. The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.Fitz has,Awsome Handsis one of the best route runnerswill see 150 targets Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

Are we skipping the points I made earlier? That Leinart has a terrible ypa (meaning he can't/won't throw deep)? That the HC has said they're going to run more? How about the fact that no matter how good Leinart may be, he's a huge downgrade from Warner (a HoF caliber qb)?

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

This thread is a JOKE!

Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.

-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb

-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.

-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the best

Fitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly.

The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.

Fitz has,

Awsome Hands

is one of the best route runners

will see 150 targets

Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

Are we skipping the points I made earlier? That Leinart has a terrible ypa (meaning he can't/won't throw deep)? That the HC has said they're going to run more? How about the fact that no matter how good Leinart may be, he's a huge downgrade from Warner (a HoF caliber qb)?

lolLets start with the deep ball Fitz had 90+ catches and didnt break 1100 yards if you paid attention to Warner last year the deep ball was not there.

They will run the ball more GOOD that doesnt change the fact Fitz WILL get 150 targets so the balance helps out. Maybe Breaston/Doucet suffer but Fitz will get his targets.

As I ststaed above Fitz did just fine with Leinart as QB. It's not an unknown and I can back mine up with REAL stats.

 

[big0mar]

Also guys, keep in mind that Arizona has one of the better coaching staffs in the NFL. They'll figure out a way to get Fitzgerald the ball.

 

[Tau837]

As I ststaed above Fitz did just fine with Leinart as QB. It's not an unknown and I can back mine up with REAL stats.

This is false. I already posted the comprehensive real stats for Fitz's splits with Leinart in post 70:

OK, because of the fact that Leinart split time in multiple games, I actually went through the game logs and determined what Fitz's performance has been while playing with Leinart. Here is the data.

Fitz playing with Leinart from 2006-2009:

- Approximately 59.5 quarters of play

- 119 targets, 70 receptions, 982 receiving yards (14.0 ypr), 5 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 128 targets, 75 receptions, 1056 receiving yards, 5.4 TDs

SSOG has suggested that we shouldn't count Leinart's rookie season, so here are the numbers for Fitz playing with Leinart from 2007-2009:

- Approximately 26.5 quarters of play

- 59 targets, 29 receptions, 409 receiving yards (14.1 ypr), 1 TD

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 142 targets, 70 receptions, 988 receiving yards, 2.4 TDs

So it turns out that it doesn't help Fitz's numbers to eliminate Leinart's rookie season. I suspect that the 5 game stretch SSOG earlier referred to as 2005 was really the first 5 games of 2007, during which Fitz had 34/448/1... but only 15/212/0 of that was from Leinart, so counting his full production for those games skewed the numbers so they looked better after Leinart's rookie season.

However, to be fair, Fitz's playing time with Leinart after Leinart's rookie year was sporadic, with plenty of mopup time and other short stints, which might distort the numbers. They played 3 full games together since Leinart's rookie year in which Leinart played the entire game at QB. Here are Fitz's numbers in those games:

- 3 games

- 27 targets, 14 receptions, 141 receiving yards (10.1 ypr), 0 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games yields: 144 targets, 75 receptions, 752 receiving yards, 0 TDs

It just keeps getting worse...

Now, Leinart could be better with more experience and an entire offseason, training camp, and preseason working as the #1 QB. (If that holds true.) But those numbers sure are unexpectedly bad. IMO a few things stand out about the numbers:

- Plenty of targets, so that is good.

- But an unimpressive catch percentage, particularly since Leinart's rookie year. I'm sure that is on Leinart and not Fitz, based on what we know about Fitz's hands and high skill level.

- Very low on TDs. Leinart had 35 red zone passing attempts in 2006, and Fitz caught 5 of them for TDs. Since then, Leinart only had 11 red zone passing attempts, with Fitz catching 1 for a TD. This doesn't look great for Fitz. For one thing, Leinart will likely be less effective at getting the team into the red zone... and then he and Fitz will have to improve on these numbers or Fitz won't be getting double digit TDs.

Some people have dissected the numbers as Warner vs. others (and without generally separating the split time games), but I think it more appropriate to look at it like Leinart vs. others, since he is currently Fitz's QB. So that's what I've done here. If you think Anderson will beat out Leinart, or will replace Leinart at some point, then perhaps these numbers become a bit less relevant. But they are the most relevant numbers available at this point IMO.

Fitz's numbers with Leinart have been significantly worse than they have been with other QBs.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

This thread is a JOKE!

Fitz is a supreme talent and his QB situation will not keep him out of the top 5.

-Calvin Johnson was top 5 With Cullpepper/Stanton as qb

-Braylon Edwards was top 5 With Leinart's backup throwing him the ball.

-Antonio Bryant finished top 10 bucs with a few different QB's Garcia bein the best

Fitz is in the prime of his career and will see 150 targets to suggest he has a better chance of finishing #20 vs.#2 is plain silly.

The talk of Boldin leaving hurts Fitz? Really?? So Boldin was drawing the double coverage..lol I dont think so. Fitz will see the same coverage w/ Boldin gone but will probably get some of his targets.

Fitz has,

Awsome Hands

is one of the best route runners

will see 150 targets

Becasue Leinart was 4 for 6 in pre season I. LOOK at Warners pre season last year, it makes Leinart look like Manning right now.

Are we skipping the points I made earlier? That Leinart has a terrible ypa (meaning he can't/won't throw deep)? That the HC has said they're going to run more? How about the fact that no matter how good Leinart may be, he's a huge downgrade from Warner (a HoF caliber qb)?

lolLets start with the deep ball Fitz had 90+ catches and didnt break 1100 yards if you paid attention to Warner last year the deep ball was not there.

They will run the ball more GOOD that doesnt change the fact Fitz WILL get 150 targets so the balance helps out. Maybe Breaston/Doucet suffer but Fitz will get his targets.

As I ststaed above Fitz did just fine with Leinart as QB. It's not an unknown and I can back mine up with REAL stats.

As I also mentioned earlier, Fitzgerald had 13 touchdowns last year. He was 15th in receiving yards amongst all wr's. If his td's drop to a still reasonable 8 he drops out of the top 10.Are you telling me it's unreasonable to think going from a HoF caliber qb with one of the quickest releases we've ever seen to Matt Leinart isn't going to cause the team to score fewer points? You think Fitz will still easily have 13+ touchdowns?

 

[Tau837]

Also, from post 72:

In the dynasty rankings thread, SSOG had a conversation about this and I reasoned out what seems to be a reasonable expectation for targets in the short term. I think Fitz is likely to get around the same number of targets he got in 2009 in the next year or two (too hard to project further than that). That fits the bigger piece of the smaller pie scenario.So the real question is how much his productivity per target drops. Per my post above, with Leinart, Fitz has averaged approximately 1 point per target so far in his career (non PPR FBG scoring). With all other QBs combined, he averaged 1.44 points per target. One can quibble with the methodology I used for separating games, but IMO it is clear that we should expect his productivity to drop. I guess that's not exactly earth shattering considering the move from Warner to Leinart... but if it was to drop by as much as 1.44 to 1, it could be enough to put him near the bottom of the top 20. (Last year it would have put him around 17th).Perhaps Leinart will improve with maturity and more practice time as the starter... perhaps Fitz is still improving or has improved since some of those previous games with Leinart... but IMO he is far from the lock to finish top 10 that others think he is. To me, this makes him overrated at this time.

And none of this addresses whether or not Fitz will be bothered by his knee injury.

 

[bostonfred]

Are you telling me it's unreasonable to think going from a HoF caliber qb with one of the quickest releases we've ever seen to Matt Leinart isn't going to cause the team to score fewer points?

Who was the HoF caliber QB throwing to him last year? Was it the guy who threw for 3753/26/14? Those numbers sound more like Drew Bledsoe than Tom Brady. Arizona isn't going from a "HoF caliber QB" in 2009 to Matt Leinart - they're going from a decent, borderline pro bowl level QB to Leinart. It's perfectly reasonable to think that there will be a dropoff, but it's not as steep as it would have been if Warner had retired a year earlier.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

As I ststaed above Fitz did just fine with Leinart as QB. It's not an unknown and I can back mine up with REAL stats.

This is false. I already posted the comprehensive real stats for Fitz's splits with Leinart in post 70:

OK, because of the fact that Leinart split time in multiple games, I actually went through the game logs and determined what Fitz's performance has been while playing with Leinart. Here is the data.

Fitz playing with Leinart from 2006-2009:

- Approximately 59.5 quarters of play

- 119 targets, 70 receptions, 982 receiving yards (14.0 ypr), 5 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 128 targets, 75 receptions, 1056 receiving yards, 5.4 TDs

SSOG has suggested that we shouldn't count Leinart's rookie season, so here are the numbers for Fitz playing with Leinart from 2007-2009:

- Approximately 26.5 quarters of play

- 59 targets, 29 receptions, 409 receiving yards (14.1 ypr), 1 TD

- Scaling up to 16 games (64 quarters) yields: 142 targets, 70 receptions, 988 receiving yards, 2.4 TDs

So it turns out that it doesn't help Fitz's numbers to eliminate Leinart's rookie season. I suspect that the 5 game stretch SSOG earlier referred to as 2005 was really the first 5 games of 2007, during which Fitz had 34/448/1... but only 15/212/0 of that was from Leinart, so counting his full production for those games skewed the numbers so they looked better after Leinart's rookie season.

However, to be fair, Fitz's playing time with Leinart after Leinart's rookie year was sporadic, with plenty of mopup time and other short stints, which might distort the numbers. They played 3 full games together since Leinart's rookie year in which Leinart played the entire game at QB. Here are Fitz's numbers in those games:

- 3 games

- 27 targets, 14 receptions, 141 receiving yards (10.1 ypr), 0 TDs

- Scaling up to 16 games yields: 144 targets, 75 receptions, 752 receiving yards, 0 TDs

It just keeps getting worse...

Now, Leinart could be better with more experience and an entire offseason, training camp, and preseason working as the #1 QB. (If that holds true.) But those numbers sure are unexpectedly bad. IMO a few things stand out about the numbers:

- Plenty of targets, so that is good.

- But an unimpressive catch percentage, particularly since Leinart's rookie year. I'm sure that is on Leinart and not Fitz, based on what we know about Fitz's hands and high skill level.

- Very low on TDs. Leinart had 35 red zone passing attempts in 2006, and Fitz caught 5 of them for TDs. Since then, Leinart only had 11 red zone passing attempts, with Fitz catching 1 for a TD. This doesn't look great for Fitz. For one thing, Leinart will likely be less effective at getting the team into the red zone... and then he and Fitz will have to improve on these numbers or Fitz won't be getting double digit TDs.

Some people have dissected the numbers as Warner vs. others (and without generally separating the split time games), but I think it more appropriate to look at it like Leinart vs. others, since he is currently Fitz's QB. So that's what I've done here. If you think Anderson will beat out Leinart, or will replace Leinart at some point, then perhaps these numbers become a bit less relevant. But they are the most relevant numbers available at this point IMO.

Fitz's numbers with Leinart have been significantly worse than they have been with other QBs.

Are you seriously going to add in spot duty quarters?? Wow

Thats is totally unfair and does NOT project out quality starts. Why not use the 8 straight weeks they played and practiced together consistently.

The stats you put together reflect him being trown into a game w/o practicing with the first team. As weel all know timing is HUGE for a QB an WR

anyone can play with numbers and make projection come out poorly. You did that by adding in games he was never prepaired as the starter.

 

[Instinctive]

Are you telling me it's unreasonable to think going from a HoF caliber qb with one of the quickest releases we've ever seen to Matt Leinart isn't going to cause the team to score fewer points?

Who was the HoF caliber QB throwing to him last year? Was it the guy who threw for 3753/26/14? Those numbers sound more like Drew Bledsoe than Tom Brady. Arizona isn't going from a "HoF caliber QB" in 2009 to Matt Leinart - they're going from a decent, borderline pro bowl level QB to Leinart. It's perfectly reasonable to think that there will be a dropoff, but it's not as steep as it would have been if Warner had retired a year earlier.

And here was I thinking that was almost exactly Brady's career average...did I miss something?

 

[bostonfred]

Are you telling me it's unreasonable to think going from a HoF caliber qb with one of the quickest releases we've ever seen to Matt Leinart isn't going to cause the team to score fewer points?

Who was the HoF caliber QB throwing to him last year? Was it the guy who threw for 3753/26/14? Those numbers sound more like Drew Bledsoe than Tom Brady. Arizona isn't going from a "HoF caliber QB" in 2009 to Matt Leinart - they're going from a decent, borderline pro bowl level QB to Leinart. It's perfectly reasonable to think that there will be a dropoff, but it's not as steep as it would have been if Warner had retired a year earlier.

And here was I thinking that was almost exactly Brady's career average...did I miss something?

Brady's career averages since becoming a full time starter are 4000 yards, 29.5 TDs, 12.5 INTs, which is substantially better in every category, and he had neither the greatest show nor the turf. Warner's career numbers are harder to talk about, because he's only played a full 16 games three times. All three of those times, including 2008, he put up over 4000 yards and 30+ TDs. In 11 games in 2000, he was on pace for 4988 yards and 31 TDs.

This is important because we shouldn't be talking about what happens to Fitz with the dropoff from the great Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart. We've already seen what happened to Fitz with the dropoff from the great Kurt Warner to the good Kurt Warner. We're still looking at another dropoff, but it's only from the good Kurt Warner to Leinart. That's still a meaningful dropoff, but it's nowhere near as steep as it sounds.

 

[Instinctive]

I hate to be "that guy" but of course, if we set aside the magical year it's pretty damn close.

Whereas with a guy like Manning, the magic year has much less impact because most of his years are so much better.

I suppose what I'm saying is, tough to say 3700/26/14 doesn't sound like Brady when he's only hit 3800+ in 3 seasons out of 8 (I tossed rookie year and his injury year...you could cut it to 7 if you wish, but he wasn't going to throw for 950 yards if he had started the other one and a half games of his second year anyway...) and he's only had more than 30 TDs once. In fact, over the course of his career, 27 seems like a damn good bet, considering he has like three 28s, an 18 (in 14.5 games) and 3 seasons under 27....plus of course the completely aberrational 50.

 

[kutta]

The whole world knows Leinart sucks. Everyone in Phoenix right now is talking about what we are going to do at QB. There's even talk that we might keep all four QB's on the roster "just in case" Leinart doesn't work out and we don't want to let Skelton or Hall get picked up on waivers. There's all kinds of talk nationally about it too. You can try to cherry pick certain games from Leinart and twist those stats to make yourself believe whatever you want. You can say Warner was no good last year and the drop off won't be a big deal. But it is a big deal, and Leinart is going to fall on his face. All you have to do is watch a game and you'll see it.

The Rams were 0-8 at home last year and 1-15 overall and they are starting a rookie QB, and the Cardinals are only favored by 3.5 points to open the season. The Rams obviously are not going to score a ton of points. Looks like the odds makers don't think the Cardinals are going to be scoring a ton of points either.

 

[nyy45]

If I were Matt Leinart, and I know I am terrible, the first person I'm zoning in on is my big play reciever. Fitz was productive last year without any big yardage plays. Leinart is terrible which tells me that the ball will be heading Fitz's way quite often. Larry doesnt need the 'big play' to be a top reciever, as he proved last year. As long as the ball is headed in his direction, his talents are too unbelievable that I like his chances of coming down with enough passes to make him a productive WR1, just not a low risk WR1 like he has been in the past. Naturally, and righteously, his value took a hit when Leinart took over under center but the injuy seemed to be the real killer and his value plunged exponentially because of it. This is why he has value. You don't have to use a first round pick to get him and in some cases even not a 2nd rounder. This leaves him with a tremendous amount of upside IMO. I don't want to draft a guy when their value is at its peak, because that is not value thats market rate. I'll gladly take Fitz in the 3rd round at a discount because he's still Larry Fitzgerald who, amazingly enough, hasn't even hit his prime yet. He turns 27 in 6 days. Player value that spiral's out of control is what I like to look for when drafting because the upside is significant as long as you can hedge the risk involved. Either way, because of the significant hit to his value, I believe Fitz's upside outweighs his risk at this point.

 

[Colts-Freak]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

 

[wadegarrett]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

You should be arrested for this.

 

[Colts-Freak]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

You should be arrested for this.

Pretty sure you're a bit confused....totals by year by my leagues scoring below. Only went back to 2008(McFadden's Rookie year)

2008

Fitz & McFadden=298.5

Marshall & Bush=311.0

2009

Fitz & McFadden=213

Marshall & Bush=289

Looks to me like I made the shark move. Think before you post, TEX!

 

[kutta]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

You should be arrested for this.

Pretty sure you're a bit confused....totals by year by my leagues scoring below. Only went back to 2008(McFadden's Rookie year)

2008

Fitz & McFadden=298.5

Marshall & Bush=311.0

2009

Fitz & McFadden=213

Marshall & Bush=289

Looks to me like I made the shark move. Think before you post, TEX!

Speaking of thinking before you post, I think he was complimenting you.

 

[Colts-Freak]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

You should be arrested for this.

Pretty sure you're a bit confused....totals by year by my leagues scoring below. Only went back to 2008(McFadden's Rookie year)

2008

Fitz & McFadden=298.5

Marshall & Bush=311.0

2009

Fitz & McFadden=213

Marshall & Bush=289

Looks to me like I made the shark move. Think before you post, TEX!

Speaking of thinking before you post, I think he was complimenting you.

 

[C-Bound]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

You should be arrested for this.

Pretty sure you're a bit confused....totals by year by my leagues scoring below. Only went back to 2008(McFadden's Rookie year)

2008

Fitz & McFadden=298.5

Marshall & Bush=311.0

2009

Fitz & McFadden=213

Marshall & Bush=289

Looks to me like I made the shark move. Think before you post, TEX!

Speaking of thinking before you post, I think he was complimenting you.

lol yea...he was implying you stole something...

 

[[icon]]

This is what happens when you let 13-day-olds post

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

If I were Matt Leinart, and I know I am terrible, the first person I'm zoning in on is my big play reciever. Fitz was productive last year without any big yardage plays. Leinart is terrible which tells me that the ball will be heading Fitz's way quite often. Larry doesnt need the 'big play' to be a top reciever, as he proved last year. As long as the ball is headed in his direction, his talents are too unbelievable that I like his chances of coming down with enough passes to make him a productive WR1, just not a low risk WR1 like he has been in the past. Naturally, and righteously, his value took a hit when Leinart took over under center but the injuy seemed to be the real killer and his value plunged exponentially because of it. This is why he has value. You don't have to use a first round pick to get him and in some cases even not a 2nd rounder. This leaves him with a tremendous amount of upside IMO. I don't want to draft a guy when their value is at its peak, because that is not value thats market rate. I'll gladly take Fitz in the 3rd round at a discount because he's still Larry Fitzgerald who, amazingly enough, hasn't even hit his prime yet. He turns 27 in 6 days. Player value that spiral's out of control is what I like to look for when drafting because the upside is significant as long as you can hedge the risk involved. Either way, because of the significant hit to his value, I believe Fitz's upside outweighs his risk at this point.

If *I* were Arizona's qb I'd target Fitzgerald. It doesn't mean I'd be good enough to get him numbers that would catapult him into the top fantasy wr's. He's still going as a top 5 (usually top 3) wr off the board...how is his value spiraling out of control? How is that the slightest hit to his value? How is that his upside outweighing his downside?

Did you think before you posted any of this?

 

[wadegarrett]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

You should be arrested for this.

Pretty sure you're a bit confused....totals by year by my leagues scoring below. Only went back to 2008(McFadden's Rookie year)

2008

Fitz & McFadden=298.5

Marshall & Bush=311.0

2009

Fitz & McFadden=213

Marshall & Bush=289

Looks to me like I made the shark move. Think before you post, TEX!

Speaking of thinking before you post, I think he was complimenting you.

Think you were looking for this: , TEX!

 

[Statler & Waldorf]

I think a lot of us predicting the "demise if Fitz" are really just predicting that he will fall out of the top 10 WR's this year, and will be mixed in with the pack of the guys in the 10-20 range. So that's still decent. It's not like Fitz is going to finish as WR 40. It's just that I think he has a better chance of finishing as the WR 20 than the WR 2.

I think Lienert is so bad that tis will be like MEGA last year. A few games where his supreme talent shines through, but a lot of frustration and disaapointment.Oh and while u can't necc. predict injuries, I do think that the "lienert hanging him out to dry one too many times" is gonna be the real achilles heel of one of the top 5 WRS in the game talent wise.

Calvin was hurt for a good portion of last season. Without that injury, he probably would still have put up 1,200 yards and a few more touchdowns. But if you're saying the numbers will be the same, not the situation, then I can understand that view point. But I still think Fitz will do alright, just not as good as in years past.

 

[Garts]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

I dealt Fitz and M. Bush for Smith (NYG) and the #1 (Mathews).couldn't be happier actually.

 

[Winky the tunnel ferret]

I agree with the OP! I traded Fitz about 2 weeks ago in my PPR keeper league.

The trade was Fitz & McFadden for R. Bush & B. Marshall.

I dealt Fitz and M. Bush for Smith (NYG) and the #1 (Mathews).

couldn't be happier actually.

 

[Colts-Freak]

This is what happens when you let 13-day-olds post

I'm a veteran, guy! take the "-" out.

 

[cvnpoka]

da is good for fitzs value.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Through week 3 Fitz has received the third most targets of anyone in the nfl.

However unlike the other top 15 target receivers who are catching about 60% of those passes, he is only catching 35% of them.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Not much to say here accept if you drafted him you can't sit him (based on where you took him) and secondly you won't get fair trade value for him.

You just have to ride it out - his schedule gets much easier. Can DA get him the ball - that one I have no idea.

 

[Koya]

Looking like the OP had a point - to a point.

If you used a 2nd or 3rd on Fitz, you are hurting. Then again, as noted, Fitz is getting a ton of targets. The QB situation is not helping and the injury is still affecting Fitz's play.

That said, he has been far from useless and for those teams that are able to wade through these early weeks, we know his upside if things get a little better.

Drafting today, for the rest of the season, you really think Fitz would not present value in the 4th round or beyond? And if things do turn for the better, that could be raised quickly.