I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP was totally correct on this. I supported him from the start, and I still support it. And even if the draft was held today, and we knew everyone's stats, I'm not sure I would draft Fitz in the 4th round. Look at it this way. Since PPR makes his stats look better, let's use that. He is the #55 overall player in my PPR league. Granted, 17 of those are QB's, so let's remove them and add back in seven, because that's how many realistically would be drafted in the first three to four rounds. That makes Fitz the #45 ranked player overall.So in a 12 team league, the end of the fourth round would give us 48 players. That makes him barely a fourth round pick.

So you're saying the #15 WR in PPR (who also BTW probably has the lowest scoring standard deviation of any WR) isn't worth a fourth round pick? MOP was right to say Fitz wasn't worth a 1st or 2nd pick.He was wrong to say he wasn't worth a 3rd or 4th pick.Seems pretty clear to me.

What %of leagues do you think Fitz was even available in the 4th round? I was being generous at 5% but probably less than 1%...if that's what you want to hang your hat on be my guest.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Oh and by the way Fitz, the subtitle was also about the WR2 and WR3 being black holes which they pretty much have been the entire year. That was a decent chunk of the OP too.

Good luck to you this weekend, I do respect your posts.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

Oh and by the way Fitz, the subtitle was also about the WR2 and WR3 being black holes which they pretty much have been the entire year. That was a decent chunk of the OP too.

WR 1-12: 2WR 13-24: 6WR 25-36: 2WR 30 or better: 9If you can get a WR3 to score those numbers, you should be pretty satisfied. I certainly woudn't call those "black hole" numbers for a WR2 either. They are acceptable.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

What %of leagues do you think Fitz was even available in the 4th round? I was being generous at 5% but probably less than 1%...if that's what you want to hang your hat on be my guest.

So is this why you said you wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 4th round?

 

[KellysHeroes]

wr 16 in PPR.. not that bad.

 

[footballnerd]

both teams I had him on made the playoffs, and he's starting this week. am i totally confident, no, but its a good match up.

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[Boom Switch]

wr 16 in PPR.. not that bad.

He's looking good tonight, blouses....

 

[ceo3west]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

 

[PatytonsGhost]

MOP its time to start WR threads next year, just a thought.

 

[Eastwood]

started him in several leagues this weekend.

 

[nflguru]

started him in several leagues this weekend.

Skelton goes to him so much last week you have to ride him. Expecting dal to be up and arz throwing it was the right move. The defensive tds allowed arz to sit on the ball and Skelton wouldn't even look his way until it was 4th and 15 needing a miracle. Seriously bad start to the championship game but if you take away the defense scores and Kitna ko this would have ended differently.

 

[knickstorm]

started him in several leagues this weekend.

Skelton goes to him so much last week you have to ride him. Expecting dal to be up and arz throwing it was the right move. The defensive tds allowed arz to sit on the ball and Skelton wouldn't even look his way until it was 4th and 15 needing a miracle. Seriously bad start to the championship game but if you take away the defense scores and Kitna ko this would have ended differently.

what a mirage last week's 100+ yard receiving game was, if it wasnt for that he probably would've rode a lot of people's benches this week.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Your not surprised are you?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

 

[Boom Switch]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

I think you were right on the money

 

[Todem]

started him in several leagues this weekend.

Sorry Clint...but it helped your pal out in several leagues.

 

[Todem]

MOP you made a bold and very good call on Fitz this season. I remember our conversation before the season started and you were emphatic about him being a major bust.

Kudos.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

You started this Topic: I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th.Again well worth a 3rd and 4th round pick, so yes you were wrong. It won't be the last time, nor will it be the last time that I was correct.

 

[Instinctive]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

You started this Topic: I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th.Again well worth a 3rd and 4th round pick, so yes you were wrong. It won't be the last time, nor will it be the last time that I was correct.

Man you sound dumb when you say that...Look, I'm not a fan of MoP. I think his weekly RB thread is middle of the road and a bit of a cry for attention. And sometimes he's so far off as to call it LHUCKSian.But the point here was quite obviously "Fitz will bust this year."And he did.

 

[Steed]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

You started this Topic: I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th.Again well worth a 3rd and 4th round pick, so yes you were wrong. It won't be the last time, nor will it be the last time that I was correct.

You were right. Jon Stewart's made a fine FB in the league.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

You started this Topic: I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th.Again well worth a 3rd and 4th round pick, so yes you were wrong. It won't be the last time, nor will it be the last time that I was correct.

Man you sound dumb when you say that...Look, I'm not a fan of MoP. I think his weekly RB thread is middle of the road and a bit of a cry for attention. And sometimes he's so far off as to call it LHUCKSian.But the point here was quite obviously "Fitz will bust this year."And he did.

I disagree. 3rd 4th rounder. He didn't say not worth a 1st or 2nd rounder. So MOP was close but still wrong.

 

[Instinctive]

Well if you really want to get into it, there were so many better options in the 3rd and 4th available, and he actually only said that HE wouldn't draft him there, so if he was drafting Roddy in the 3rd and Foster in the 4th, then he was 100% on the money.

If he was saying not to draft him but to take, say, Steve Smith CAR, then you have gained a little ground.

But reading that phrase so incredibly literally as you are and completely missing the point is obviously moro...oh man. I just realized.

You got me hook, line, and sinker. I suppose I won't be back in this thread again...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

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I'm guessing he finally got off suspension and is taking pot shots at me...Jealousy=Speed

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

If you insist on editing your original statement, why don't you? It's a move that has more integrity than parsing it later.

 

[Raider Nation]

The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts

2nd? Okay. 1st? I'm guessing Fitz wasn't a 1st-rounder in many 12-team non-keeper leagues. People knew losing Warner would be huge.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If you insist on editing your original statement, why don't you? It's a move that has more integrity than parsing it later.

I would have written 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th and 12th if it would have fit...do you not understand the theme and what others seem to grasp about the spirit of the thread?He was gone in the 1st or 2nd...anything after that was moot...I wasn't drawing a line in the sand at the 4th round...and others have shown he wasn't a great option there either compared to plays like Adrian Foster. Again, I look forward to a spirited off season with you.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

If you insist on editing your original statement, why don't you? It's a move that has more integrity than parsing it later.

I would have written 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th and 12th if it would have fit...do you not understand the theme and what others seem to grasp about the spirit of the thread?He was gone in the 1st or 2nd...anything after that was moot...I wasn't drawing a line in the sand at the 4th round...and others have shown he wasn't a great option there either compared to plays like Adrian Foster. Again, I look forward to a spirited off season with you.

What %of leagues do you think Fitz was even available in the 4th round? I was being generous at 5% but probably less than 1%...if that's what you want to hang your hat on be my guest.

So is this why you said you wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 4th round?

You never answered this. I look forward to it.

 

[ceo3west]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

You started this Topic: I wouldn't draft Larry Fitzgerald in the 1st...2nd...3rd...4th.Again well worth a 3rd and 4th round pick, so yes you were wrong. It won't be the last time, nor will it be the last time that I was correct.

He is currently WR16 in standard scoring 12 team leagues, and will likely fall to the 18-20 range after today. That is a borderline 4th round pick at best.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Can't believe this topic received so many postings. I thought it was obvious and clear (along with most other commercial projections available) that Fitz was an utter crapshoot this year. Too obvious to give anyone credit for. Gotta shoot higher boyz this circle jerk is ridiculous.

 

[Eastwood]

2nd? Okay. 1st? I'm guessing Fitz wasn't a 1st-rounder in many 12-team non-keeper leagues. People knew losing Warner would be huge.

I drafted him in the first in a dynasty start up. But I also knew it was a risk this year, and assume the Cards will have better options than 3 backup worthy QBs next season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts

2nd? Okay. 1st? I'm guessing Fitz wasn't a 1st-rounder in many 12-team non-keeper leagues. People knew losing Warner would be huge.

In redrafts, there is no way he went 1st round, unless someone was foolishly reaching. So, to keep talking like he was drafted in the first round in many drafts is pretty disingenuous.

Also, I wonder how many Fitz owners are in the Super Bowl this week because they won a close game last week, a week where Fitz had a fantastic week.

Bottom line: if you drafted Fitz in the 2nd or 3rd round, no, he didn't quite do what a guy drafted there should do, but unless you botched the rest of your draft, he wasn't a team killer. I am guessing, based on the number of busts/disappointments/etc. in the first few rounds, most owners missed on one of their early picks.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

If you insist on editing your original statement, why don't you? It's a move that has more integrity than parsing it later.

I would have written 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th and 12th if it would have fit...do you not understand the theme and what others seem to grasp about the spirit of the thread?He was gone in the 1st or 2nd...anything after that was moot...I wasn't drawing a line in the sand at the 4th round...and others have shown he wasn't a great option there either compared to plays like Adrian Foster. Again, I look forward to a spirited off season with you.

Seems to me you can't understand you were MOP=Wrong. Again it's OK. It happens. No one I know drafted Fitz in the first, late 2nd yes. 3rd and 4th round yes. Do you now see why you were not correct?

 

[Tau837]

He is currently WR16 in standard scoring 12 team leagues, and will likely fall to the 18-20 range after today. That is a borderline 4th round pick at best.

A problem with this thread reflects a general problem with the postings on draft position on this site. People insist on talking about draft rounds rather than draft position. Draft round is too nebulous... league sizes vary from 8 to 16, or maybe in rare cases even beyond those limits... scoring varies, such as PPR vs. non-PPR, bonuses for long scores and/or 100 yard games, differing scoring for other positions that affect positional drafting tendencies, etc... and there is a big difference when talking a given round whether you draft at the beginning, middle, or end of the round.That said, the bottom line is that Fitz is currently #16 and will very likely be passed by at least 3 players in the remaining games this week. He was a bust this year, plain and simple. To debate use of the term "bust" vs. "disappointment" etc. is merely debating semantics.Despite the unfortunate use of draft rounds in the OP, MOP was spot on with this thread, and he deserves kudos for it. There were plenty who agreed, so it's not like he was a lone voice predicting this. But it was still a minority opinion, and he was right, and he is the one who went so far as to create this thread to put it on the record.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Final 2010 stat line:

90-1,137-6

 

[plyka]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

Just a question for people who use this line of reasoning, but what percentage of 1st rounders do you believe "live up to expectations" which infer being in the 1st round production wise?In my PPR league, here is how the RB position scored out:1) Foster2)ADP3) Jamaal Charles4) Hillis5) CJ2k6) Mcfadden7)MccoyI'm guessing roughly 7 RBs went in the 1st round of most 12 team drafts. Meaning that only the 1st and 2nd overall pick "lived up to expectations." Other guys like Rice, MJD, Turner, Gore, Mendenhall, et al didn't live up to expectations right?This idea that if you pick someone in round 2 and if they don't give you round 2 production then it was a bust is not really correct in my book. Sometimes consistancy may be as important as overall production. Sometimes accuracy may be as important as overall production. For instance, if Fitzgerald has a 90% chance of scoring in 3rd level production area or higher vs Randy Moss who has a 10% chance of scoring in 1st round level, but only 25% of scoring in 3rd round level (or higher) I may want fitzgerald over Moss and it would be the right pick even if Moss had come through on that 10% and scored in round 1 level of production. Even if i had to take Fitz in the 2nd round.Basically, this whole thread is out of place. Fitz was selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Where is his production? At worst 3rd-4th round level? Aren't there bigger fish to fry in the sea? I am a Fitz owner in all my leagues (3 of them 2 money leages (ie leagues i'm "serious about")), and am very happy with his production, especially on my CHAMPIONSHIP KEEPER LEAGUE haha...sorry, i just like writing that last sentence...

 

[Shutout]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today.

Cheers

Just a question for people who use this line of reasoning, but what percentage of 1st rounders do you believe "live up to expectations" which infer being in the 1st round production wise?

In my PPR league, here is how the RB position scored out:

1) Foster

2)ADP

3) Jamaal Charles

4) Hillis

5) CJ2k

6) Mcfadden

7)Mccoy

I'm guessing roughly 7 RBs went in the 1st round of most 12 team drafts. Meaning that only the 1st and 2nd overall pick "lived up to expectations." Other guys like Rice, MJD, Turner, Gore, Mendenhall, et al didn't live up to expectations right?

This idea that if you pick someone in round 2 and if they don't give you round 2 production then it was a bust is not really correct in my book. Sometimes consistancy may be as important as overall production. Sometimes accuracy may be as important as overall production. For instance, if Fitzgerald has a 90% chance of scoring in 3rd level production area or higher vs Randy Moss who has a 10% chance of scoring in 1st round level, but only 25% of scoring in 3rd round level (or higher) I may want fitzgerald over Moss and it would be the right pick even if Moss had come through on that 10% and scored in round 1 level of production. Even if i had to take Fitz in the 2nd round.

Basically, this whole thread is out of place. Fitz was selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Where is his production? At worst 3rd-4th round level? Aren't there bigger fish to fry in the sea? I am a Fitz owner in all my leagues (3 of them 2 money leages (ie leagues i'm "serious about")), and am very happy with his production, especially on my CHAMPIONSHIP KEEPER LEAGUE haha...sorry, i just like writing that last sentence...

This thread is so long that its probably been missed several times but there are a handful of us that have made this point and its really the bottom line. I have no idea how people can say "kudos" or props on a recommendation to avoid Fitz so long. In what has been one of the craziest NFL seasons ever, he's FAR FROM UNIQUE in that he performed outside his usual expectaiton, but at the end of the day, he was WR11 in my PPR and averaged about 2 points less/game than Reggie Wayne (WR5, with his usual "put it in the bank typical production). He fell victim to his own success and standards but you could have done FAR FAR worse than taking Fitz high this year. Had you avoided Fitz and taken a lot of the "other guys" that were being recommended, you actually would have faired much worse (Austin/Moss/DJAX/Marshall/Welker/Q, etc, etc) and that's just the WRS. Toss in all the RBs that flopped miserably in relation to where they were drafted and Fitz still seems like what a lot of us said he was; a know talent that will still do you well.

Half the top ten at the RB and WR position where nowhere on people's top ten boards going into the year (Loyd, Hillis, McFadden, Foster, Forte, Bowe, Wallace, Stevie Johnson) so its even more unlikely anyone would have used the pick wisely had they forgone drafting Fitz (e.g., you may have said "ok, I'll pass on Fitz//just to draft DWIL).

The proof in the pudding is simple:

-Fitz finished right outside top 10 WR, which is highly normal at the position. We have seen Wayne and Moss and Calvin and Roddy and Welker, etc, etc all in this top 3-top 10 range over the past few years.

-Fitz was on a lot of championship teams. THere was a post here a few weeks ago asking people to post their championship rosters and Michael Vick and Fitz were on a ton of those teams. Of course, that doesn'ttell the story of HOW a team got Fitz or where he was drafted, but it does tell the story that a lot of people were using him as a starter (as they listed) and were getting solid points from him.

In any given year, you can list a guy and say the sky is falling but if you're griping that Mr. perrenial #1 is going to suddenly becom Mr. 8 one year, then its not worth saying. We all know that the biggest risk/reward can come from the top 2 picks you make, so its like an obvious statement that doesn't need repeating. Fitz fell about 70 points off the top WR this year. Chris Johnson fell about 110 off the top RB. SO, at the end of the day, wouldn't it have made more sense to warn people about the overall #1 pick falling short more than it would have been to warn people about a 1st rounder finishing top 20 RB/WR?

 

[Go deep]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today.

Cheers

Just a question for people who use this line of reasoning, but what percentage of 1st rounders do you believe "live up to expectations" which infer being in the 1st round production wise?In my PPR league, here is how the RB position scored out:

1) Foster

2)ADP

3) Jamaal Charles

4) Hillis

5) CJ2k

6) Mcfadden

7)Mccoy

I'm guessing roughly 7 RBs went in the 1st round of most 12 team drafts. Meaning that only the 1st and 2nd overall pick "lived up to expectations." Other guys like Rice, MJD, Turner, Gore, Mendenhall, et al didn't live up to expectations right?

This idea that if you pick someone in round 2 and if they don't give you round 2 production then it was a bust is not really correct in my book. Sometimes consistancy may be as important as overall production. Sometimes accuracy may be as important as overall production. For instance, if Fitzgerald has a 90% chance of scoring in 3rd level production area or higher vs Randy Moss who has a 10% chance of scoring in 1st round level, but only 25% of scoring in 3rd round level (or higher) I may want fitzgerald over Moss and it would be the right pick even if Moss had come through on that 10% and scored in round 1 level of production. Even if i had to take Fitz in the 2nd round.

Basically, this whole thread is out of place. Fitz was selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Where is his production? At worst 3rd-4th round level? Aren't there bigger fish to fry in the sea? I am a Fitz owner in all my leagues (3 of them 2 money leages (ie leagues i'm "serious about")), and am very happy with his production, especially on my CHAMPIONSHIP KEEPER LEAGUE haha...sorry, i just like writing that last sentence...

This thread is so long that its probably been missed several times but there are a handful of us that have made this point and its really the bottom line. I have no idea how people can say "kudos" or props on a recommendation to avoid Fitz so long. In what has been one of the craziest NFL seasons ever, he's FAR FROM UNIQUE in that he performed outside his usual expectaiton, but at the end of the day, he was WR11 in my PPR and averaged about 2 points less/game than Reggie Wayne (WR5, with his usual "put it in the bank typical production). He fell victim to his own success and standards but you could have done FAR FAR worse than taking Fitz high this year. Had you avoided Fitz and taken a lot of the "other guys" that were being recommended, you actually would have faired much worse (Austin/Moss/DJAX/Marshall/Welker/Q, etc, etc) and that's just the WRS. Toss in all the RBs that flopped miserably in relation to where they were drafted and Fitz still seems like what a lot of us said he was; a know talent that will still do you well.

Half the top ten at the RB and WR position where nowhere on people's top ten boards going into the year (Loyd, Hillis, McFadden, Foster, Forte, Bowe, Wallace, Stevie Johnson) so its even more unlikely anyone would have used the pick wisely had they forgone drafting Fitz (e.g., you may have said "ok, I'll pass on Fitz//just to draft DWIL).

The proof in the pudding is simple:

-Fitz finished right outside top 10 WR, which is highly normal at the position. We have seen Wayne and Moss and Calvin and Roddy and Welker, etc, etc all in this top 3-top 10 range over the past few years.

-Fitz was on a lot of championship teams. THere was a post here a few weeks ago asking people to post their championship rosters and Michael Vick and Fitz were on a ton of those teams. Of course, that doesn'ttell the story of HOW a team got Fitz or where he was drafted, but it does tell the story that a lot of people were using him as a starter (as they listed) and were getting solid points from him.

In any given year, you can list a guy and say the sky is falling but if you're griping that Mr. perrenial #1 is going to suddenly becom Mr. 8 one year, then its not worth saying. We all know that the biggest risk/reward can come from the top 2 picks you make, so its like an obvious statement that doesn't need repeating. Fitz fell about 70 points off the top WR this year. Chris Johnson fell about 110 off the top RB. SO, at the end of the day, wouldn't it have made more sense to warn people about the overall #1 pick falling short more than it would have been to warn people about a 1st rounder finishing top 20 RB/WR?

Fitz finished 17th in non-ppr. Also, i dont think anyone was projecting Fitz to have 70 receptions, 900 yards and 4 TD's. Most of the Fitz nay-sayers were right on with their projections. Anyone who drafted Fitz with a late first to mid 2nd round pick was surely hoping for more than 1140 yards and 6 TD's. One more thing, Just because Fitz was on a team that won a championship proves nothing. As a matter of fact, Fitz probably cost more teams championships than he helped with his week 16 performance of 1 catch for 26 yards.

 

[Tau837]

He is currently WR16 in standard scoring 12 team leagues, and will likely fall to the 18-20 range after today. That is a borderline 4th round pick at best.

A problem with this thread reflects a general problem with the postings on draft position on this site. People insist on talking about draft rounds rather than draft position. Draft round is too nebulous... league sizes vary from 8 to 16, or maybe in rare cases even beyond those limits... scoring varies, such as PPR vs. non-PPR, bonuses for long scores and/or 100 yard games, differing scoring for other positions that affect positional drafting tendencies, etc... and there is a big difference when talking a given round whether you draft at the beginning, middle, or end of the round.That said, the bottom line is that Fitz is currently #16 and will very likely be passed by at least 3 players in the remaining games this week. He was a bust this year, plain and simple. To debate use of the term "bust" vs. "disappointment" etc. is merely debating semantics.Despite the unfortunate use of draft rounds in the OP, MOP was spot on with this thread, and he deserves kudos for it. There were plenty who agreed, so it's not like he was a lone voice predicting this. But it was still a minority opinion, and he was right, and he is the one who went so far as to create this thread to put it on the record.

Repeating this post in light of a couple recent posts that came afterwards.First off, there is apparently a divide in his performance between PPR and non-PPR. I play in all non-PPR leagues, and in standard non-PPR scoring, Fitz finished as WR #16. And in points per game, he was even lower, at WR #21.Given these facts, and despite the unfortunate continued use of draft rounds rather than relative draft position, MOP was generally correct with this thread, at least for non-PPR leagues. To debate whether end of 4th round matters, to debate the word bust, etc. is just debating semantics. The vast majority of those who drafted Fitz expected more than they got from him.Does that happen with other players, too? Of course, but this thread isn't about other players, it's about Fitz.

 

[Saint]

First off, I want to hand it to MOP, for providing his input and thoughts all season. While there are a lot of garbage threads in here about MOP and his commentaries throughout the year, I'll just call y'all haters. Fact is, I look forward to hearing someone else's point of view, especially where we differ. That's what makes it a good perspective. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm not. None of us are 100% right all the time. That's life.

Anyway as for this post, I would say MOP was 75/25 according to my league scoring. 12-team PPR league. Before the season, he was projected at WR 8. After the season, he finished at WR 16. In my redraft league, there were 3 WR in Round 1, 3 WR in Round 2, 7 WR in Round 3 and 6 WR in Round 4. So finishing at WR 16 put him in Round 4, or better to speak late 3rd, early 4th.

So MOP was right in saying don't take him 1-2-3. He was wrong in saying the 4th round. But let's be honest, how many drafts were you all involved where he went in the top 3 rounds? 100% more or less I would imagine.

Still, a ballsy call and almost 100% right, but if made some of you hold off a little bit later and snag him in the 3rd if he was available... well... then I can say MOP's post was a benefit to many of us.

I'll give the guy a bone, nice job and I look forward to next year's predictions! :X

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Props to MOP for this. Tough to put yourself out there and make these calls, but successful owners know when to avoid a player.

He was wrong.

Obviously many others feel differently. You were one that harped on the fine print. The title of the thead was meant to avoid Fitz more than debate if he was worth a 3rd or 4th round selection. He was drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of most drafts and he didn't live up to expctations for many of the reasons I outlined. On the biggest week of the season he vanised. Look forward to reading your threads next fall, good luck in any leagus you are in today. Cheers

Just a question for people who use this line of reasoning, but what percentage of 1st rounders do you believe "live up to expectations" which infer being in the 1st round production wise?In my PPR league, here is how the RB position scored out:1) Foster2)ADP3) Jamaal Charles4) Hillis5) CJ2k6) Mcfadden7)MccoyI'm guessing roughly 7 RBs went in the 1st round of most 12 team drafts. Meaning that only the 1st and 2nd overall pick "lived up to expectations." Other guys like Rice, MJD, Turner, Gore, Mendenhall, et al didn't live up to expectations right?This idea that if you pick someone in round 2 and if they don't give you round 2 production then it was a bust is not really correct in my book. Sometimes consistancy may be as important as overall production. Sometimes accuracy may be as important as overall production. For instance, if Fitzgerald has a 90% chance of scoring in 3rd level production area or higher vs Randy Moss who has a 10% chance of scoring in 1st round level, but only 25% of scoring in 3rd round level (or higher) I may want fitzgerald over Moss and it would be the right pick even if Moss had come through on that 10% and scored in round 1 level of production. Even if i had to take Fitz in the 2nd round.Basically, this whole thread is out of place. Fitz was selected in the 2nd or 3rd round. Where is his production? At worst 3rd-4th round level? Aren't there bigger fish to fry in the sea? I am a Fitz owner in all my leagues (3 of them 2 money leages (ie leagues i'm "serious about")), and am very happy with his production, especially on my CHAMPIONSHIP KEEPER LEAGUE haha...sorry, i just like writing that last sentence...

you are hilarious. I guess in PPR's he did ok, but in a non ppr league he wasn't worth drafting in the 4th. Even though in most leagues he went in the 2/3rd. At the end of the day he was a low-teen WR, which is not what you want or are happy to get out of your 4th round pick, generally. Now he wasn't Randy Moss Bad/Bust, but the OP/MOP contention was that this was a year to avoid LF. Before you sit here and wax poetic about the inherent values of wr relative to other busts etc, why don't you go READ what the 'haters'/people who disagreed with MOP said in the preseason etc, instead of trying to split hairs over semantics. These threads when done in the offseason usually aim to guide your draft. Odds are if you avoided LF you probably were better off than taking him where you would have had to get him, because many other people did not believe guys like the OP/MOP.Now you are right in some respect that in PPR leagues LF would be serviceable, and maybe worth a 4. But there is NO WAY IN HELL due to his talent/past performance/role in that offense with Boldin moving on, that you were gonna get LF in the 4th in a PPR league, because in those leagues he went much higher.for comparissonin my 12 team PPR league he went 2.2.in my 12 team redraft non ppr league he went 3.3 (and a guy traded late 3rd and 5th to get him thinking he was 'sliding value' as he almost took him in the second.in my 10 non ppr he went 2.2in 2 of the leagues he went before roddy white

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm not there in 2012 yet but I really thought Kolb would get it together and the early returns from last night are not looking good.

2008: 96/1431/12

2009: 97/1092/13

Those were mostly with Warner

2010: 90/1137/6...TD dropped in half

2011: 80/1411/8...his ypc was a career high 17.6 which is a full 3.5 yds over his career avg so I don't think you can expect that again. In fact it makes his stats look pretty helter skelter.

I'm open to what you all are thinking right now...

 

[Ghost Rider]

In 8 games with Kolb last year:

37-658-2

In 8 games with Skelton last year:

42-753-6

So, yeah, if you are a Fitz owner, bring on Skelton.

 

[Warrior]

One of the safest WR picks possible. He has a very high floor, even with a bad QB. The ceiling isn't as high as Andre Johnson, but the risk is much much lower, and the first couple of rounds are all about avoiding risk.

 

[Ghost Rider]

One of the safest WR picks possible. He has a very high floor, even with a bad QB. The ceiling isn't as high as Andre Johnson, but the risk is much much lower, and the first couple of rounds are all about avoiding risk.

Fitz has double digit TDs in four of his eight NFL seasons; AJ has NEVER hit double digit TDs.

Fitz has 1,400 yards plus in four of his eight seasons; AJ has done that twice in nine seasons.

Fitz has averaged 93 catches a seasons his last five seasons; AJ averages more catches when he is healthy (106 catches a seasons in his last three full seasons).

Fitz almost never misses games due to injury; AJ has missed 19 games out of 80 in the last five seasons.

Given all of that, how is AJ's ceiling higher? Okay, Fitz only has 14 touchdowns in his last two seasons (which is a bit low for him), but that is still only a tad less than AJ's best two back to back seasons total of 17.

In other words, IF both stay healthy, AJ might catch a few more balls, but Fitz is more than likely to catch more touchdowns and have more yards. And that is a big IF on AJ staying healthy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

In 8 games with Kolb last year: 37-658-2In 8 games with Skelton last year: 42-753-6So, yeah, if you are a Fitz owner, bring on Skelton.

Good stats GR, I just am not sure I put a lot of stock from Skelton yet.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

One of the safest WR picks possible. He has a very high floor, even with a bad QB. The ceiling isn't as high as Andre Johnson, but the risk is much much lower, and the first couple of rounds are all about avoiding risk.

Fitz has double digit TDs in four of his eight NFL seasons; AJ has NEVER hit double digit TDs.

Fitz has 1,400 yards plus in four of his eight seasons; AJ has done that twice in nine seasons.

Fitz has averaged 93 catches a seasons his last five seasons; AJ averages more catches when he is healthy (106 catches a seasons in his last three full seasons).

Fitz almost never misses games due to injury; AJ has missed 19 games out of 80 in the last five seasons.

Given all of that, how is AJ's ceiling higher? Okay, Fitz only has 14 touchdowns in his last two seasons (which is a bit low for him), but that is still only a tad less than AJ's best two back to back seasons total of 17.

In other words, IF both stay healthy, AJ might catch a few more balls, but Fitz is more than likely to catch more touchdowns and have more yards. And that is a big IF on AJ staying healthy.

We're talking about 2012, not their careers. I also think that Andre Johnson has a higher ceiling than Randy Moss... this year.Especially the bolded; even if Andre is guaranteed to miss a game or two, I still take hom over Fitz. Andre has Schaub; Fitz has the mess that is Kolb/Skelton. I think you;re missing the point.

 

[Ghost Rider]

One of the safest WR picks possible. He has a very high floor, even with a bad QB. The ceiling isn't as high as Andre Johnson, but the risk is much much lower, and the first couple of rounds are all about avoiding risk.

Fitz has double digit TDs in four of his eight NFL seasons; AJ has NEVER hit double digit TDs.

Fitz has 1,400 yards plus in four of his eight seasons; AJ has done that twice in nine seasons.

Fitz has averaged 93 catches a seasons his last five seasons; AJ averages more catches when he is healthy (106 catches a seasons in his last three full seasons).

Fitz almost never misses games due to injury; AJ has missed 19 games out of 80 in the last five seasons.

Given all of that, how is AJ's ceiling higher? Okay, Fitz only has 14 touchdowns in his last two seasons (which is a bit low for him), but that is still only a tad less than AJ's best two back to back seasons total of 17.

In other words, IF both stay healthy, AJ might catch a few more balls, but Fitz is more than likely to catch more touchdowns and have more yards. And that is a big IF on AJ staying healthy.

We're talking about 2012, not their careers. I also think that Andre Johnson has a higher ceiling than Randy Moss... this year.Especially the bolded; even if Andre is guaranteed to miss a game or two, I still take hom over Fitz. Andre has Schaub; Fitz has the mess that is Kolb/Skelton. I think you;re missing the point.

Look at it this way: Houston's running game is dominant, and their defense is really good now, so the Texans tend to not be in as many shootouts, and many of AJ and Schaub's best statistical games over the years were those 31-28 games the Texans always seemed to be involved in. I had AJ in 2010 and it seemed like so many of his big games came in high-scoring shootouts, so with those not as prevalent as before with Houston, his numbers won't be as astronomical, even if he does stay healthy. The fact that Fitz is still putting up top WR numbers with Kolb and Skelton is very telling (over 1,400 yards last year with those two...are you kidding me).

 

[Sabertooth]

I was able to send Sam Bradford away this season for Larry Fitzgerald Straight up in a start 2QB league this offseason to a crappy owner. Just thought you guys should know.