IDP dynasty trade help (1 Viewer)

[willjohnson33]

Dynasty LeagueI was offeredFreddy T. + Pierce for my 1.02 pickI said no, but I was wondering if I should go back with Freddy T. + Toefield + Pierce for my 1.02I really need some help at LB since DJ Williams is my #2 and he might be relegated to SSB this year. We start 2 RBs and either 3 or 4 LBsScoring is pretty much what FBG uses for thier projectionsRBsPortis/Barber/Rhodes/Moore/Buckhalter/Cobbs/Wells/ChatmanIf Portis or Barber go down I am really screwedLBsBarnett/Williams/Lehman/Foreman/June/Thornton/Diggs/Tinoi/PopeAm I better off just hanging tight with taking Caddy at 1.02 and hoping I can get an LB in the rookie draft (I don't have a 2nd rounder but I have 3.02)Thanks

 

[coolnerd]

I would stay 1.02 take what ever RB that I liked as my third. Also, don't panic over the LB thing. You can do a lot worse than DJ williams playing SLB as your 2nd.

 

[Bloom]

thats not even close to the worth of the 1.02 with or w/o toefield

 

[pretender]

I would keep your 1.05 and try and pick up Thurman or Rudd in the 3rd round. Fincher is also looking good and might slip to the 4th or 5th round. My 2 cents

 

[Weiner Dog]

thats not even close to the worth of the 1.02 with or w/o toefield

 

[Rovers]

I would pull the trigger on this, if it included Toefield. Pierce is sure to be a top 10 LB, maybe top five with some luck. He would be your best LB immediately. I still say that there is risk with any rookie pick, and a bird in the hand.... as they say. I would use the 3rd round pick to get Pearman, just to completely cover yourself at RB. That gives you the depth you need at RB, and you get a young stud MLB. The only concern I would have is with Henry floating around out there, but it looks more and more like the Titans will take him. If you start 3 LB's, all the more reason to do this deal. I guess I'm the only one that thinks so, though.

 

[kellumsboys]

keep the 1.2 for sureyou can easily get a LB with your 3rd round pickmabye even 4th too

 

[Bob Magaw]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Rovers]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Interesting. Is Caddy already better than Priest Holmes ever was? Anyone remember Blair Thomas? Or a dozen others I could reel off, like Ron Dane? There is no such thing as a can't miss rookie. I love it when owners in my league overvalue draft picks. I traded 3 second round picks (16 team league) for Clayton this year. Rookie picks are a gamble, I'll take a proven stud vet any day.

 

[Bob Magaw]

taylor is a proven vet stud with gimpy knees who turns 30 inside a year. pierce is a good player, but i don't think you pass on a chance at a young franchise RB for a LB like him. this is one of the best years to get a RB in a few seasons (after RBs like steven jackson, larry brown & william green were first RBs off the board in the second half of the first round)... three RBs went in the top five. a top two choice will probably yield cadillac or benson... of course they aren't sure things, but neither is taylor with the condition his knees are in. the above two RBs (plus ronnie brown) are the highest graded RBs since LT II, & he turned out pretty good. maybe we can't draw too may parallels from actual football to the fantasy world... but do you think any of the teams with top 5 picks that eventually took RBs (MIA, CHI & TB) would even consider for a second coughing up their high first round picks & chance at a franchise RB... for a RB almost thirty that may be damaged goods... & pierce?not saying it is never a good move to parlay a high pick into a stud vet... just not sure taylor is the best exemplar of your point. imo, he has too many question marks to pass on such consensus highly graded prospects.

 

[Rovers]

Bob, it isnt just Taylor, if it was, I'd lay off this trade. However, with Toefield and Pearman, a starting RB is assured. This trade would get him not just Pierce, a young starting MLB who is sure to be a top ten, but the starting RB for Jacksonville. All that for a 1.2? Out of Brown, Benson and Caddy, one is quite possibly going to be a bust, if history is a teacher. I would do this trade, unless my team was in a rebuilding mode, then the risk for a rokie pick would make more sense. With what I view as a weak LB corp, and Tiki and Portis, this is a team that should try to win now. Pierce becomes his best LB straight away, and he gets the RB depth he needs to boot. Now, if his DB's aren't very good, likewise his WR's and QB, then going with the rookie pick again, would make more sense. But, if the rest of his roster is competitve, and he has a shot at the whole enchilada this year, trading the pick makes sense to me.

 

[SkyRattlers]

But Taylor is in all liklihood past his glory days, Toefield doesn't have much hope of ever being a top 10 RB and Pearman only really has the hope of being a solid 3rd down back in the NFL. I'd keep the 1.02.

 

[coolnerd]

My problem is that I am too unsure of what having the Jacksonville running game means. Taylor healthy is a quality RB, but for the unteenth time in his career there are doubts about his health. If he is not healthy, then which of those guys has proven he is not a spare? None. The amount of risk with this group of 4 is the same IMO if not more with whichever RB he likes at 1.02. Even in huge leagues, I don't like taking 4 spots to do the job of 1. Pierce is solid, but IDPs are unpredictable as heck. Was Pierce thought as top 10 at this point last year? I don't think so, but could be corrected there.

 

[Rovers]

No, Pierce want even an MLB at this time last year! I know what a risk taylor is, i'm sure it's very unlikely he gets through the year without a lot of injury time. In my mind, it boils down to whether or not this roster is built to win now, with guys that are long in the tooth like Tiki, or does it need rebuilding? I think with the LB corp as is, it doesn't look good, but...... dynasty leagues rarely have a team that can get on a roll like the Pats in the NFL have. I think one has to pick a year to make a run. If this team isn't solid enough to make a run now, then take the rookie RB. If it is , then I like the trade, simple as that.

 

[redman]

With IDP's it's all about opportunity cost. The problem with LB's and CB's is that you can almost always find one or two FA's in a given year who will end up as top 15 at their position. It's just the nature of those positions that, quite often, talent has but little to do with production. That more than concerns about his talent or success in NY is why I wonder whether Pierce is worth the trade. Now, Fred T. and Toefield gets more interesting. I agree with Rovers that this depends upon whether you want to rebuild or win now. It's ambiguous given that you have a young Portis and an old Barber at RB. If you go through with the trade, in three years you'll likely have two RB's, Barber and Taylor who are over the hill, and frankly who knows how long Portis will last? I have no faith in Toefield being any good as an heir to Taylor. IMHO, keep the pick and take Caddy, and then go with Ruud, Thurman or Crowder with your 3.02. All three of those guys may still be there. You'll get what you want (barring bust of course, but vets fall apart too sometimes) and you'll have youth too.

 

[Bob Magaw]

hey rovers,its good to put out your rationale... more important that who is "right" or "wrong" in an individual case is the larger process of having others being able to look at the broader scope of the thread with multiple perspectives, viewpoints, insights...like yours... you are right to draw a distinction between win now or later... this is one of the most interesting & non-trivial things about dynasty... there is no right or wrong in the sense that there is not just one "right" way to construct a champion or a long-term contender.i didn't mention it, but one reason i would advise keeping the pick is that i think cadillac & benson have a chance to be special (taylor is/was special, but is aging & injury prone). this is obviously a matter of personal preference, & everybody will have to use their own judgement to make that value tradeoff nalysis. despite being smaller than brown, williams was known for having the superior inside vision, he has the skills of a more mature runner (patience to let blocks & play develope), the ability to make ankle breaker fakes in the open field & string moves together (a rare ability even for some of the top vets), & he runs strong for his size... he is sometimes called small, but played at about 205 & bulked up to around 215 for the combine... a lot of past & current backs enjoyed great success at that size. injury history at auburn is a concern... but for me, his talent, pedigree & opportunity (he is instantly by far the most talented RB on the roster) are compelling & supersede said concerns.benson is supposedly like a smaller eddie george... about 225... but he looks to me like he has a lot more wiggle & maybe more short area burst (the kind good for breaking free into the second level) than george had even in his prime. with his size & toughness, that could be a nasty combination. the bears were awful last year, but the wheels came off after grossman got hurt. he has questions, but he owns the ncaa record for most passing yards in first two seasons (fresh-soph), & muhammad, gage, berrian & bradley could be an under-rated set of WRs. there defense has great potential... lovie smith worked wonders for the rams, & key members such o-gun, uhrlacher, mike brown & peanut tillman all missed SIGNIFICANT time last year.others made good points upthread...toefield not a sure thing, nor is pearman (who he doesn't have)...the third rounder he would spend on pearman could be used on thurman, ruud or crowder (i concur with redman)...bummer to have to use three roster spots for one position...good point that it is better to add youth in cadillac (or benson) with portis & tiki... taylor would tip balance into the geezer spectrum. also, when i took a closer look at things, i really like his LBs... nick barnett is potential top 10... & i think there are a lot of people who would not trade DJ straight up for pierce. DJ is a monster who could be rare SLB that is most dangerous & important LB on his team... like arrington b4 last season. tino might be top 5 LB from same class as barnett (briggs & boss bailey also from class of '03) & lehman could be top 5 from class of '04 along with DJ (also like vilma, watson & daryl smith a lot). plus you probably add thurman or ruud... or thomas davis or alex smith (TE) or chris henry? how many teams could he possibly face that have two top 10 LBs... maybe a couple? he might be better positioned to take those teams out if his LBs are almost as good but his RBs are better... if say, taylor's knee is worse than advertised & he can't go. i happen to like pierce a lot... i think top 10 is well within his ability & potential... some scouts said he should have garnered pro bowl recognition he played so well.

 

[Rovers]

I also can't imagine any of the big three RB's busting. But, we all know it happens. I also happen to be high on Pierce as well. There are some guys that will produce at MLB year in, year out, I think he is one of them. (Imagine a Jet homer saying that about a Giant!) After looking at the RB's on this roster, I really don't think carrying three to cover the Carolina situation is an issue. Again, I would look at this as a one year deal, as far as the Carolina RB's go. I frankly don't think that Ruud, Crowder, DJ, Thurman, even Pollack or guys like Spears or Merriman last until his third round pick. Thomas Davis went at 1.9 in my dynasty, fer cryin out loud! (That guy had a slew of 1st rounders though, it made sense) . So, I don't buy into the "you can get an LB later scenario". not with a third round pick, you can't. In my IDP dynasty league, again, 16 teams, so if this is a 12 team league, it might play out differently, the first round was 13 O players. The second round was more like 14 D players. Additionally, I don't think Barnett is a sticker. I think he's a top twenty, but I'm not sure he can maintain even that over the long haul. I think he falls into the category of IDP that redman referred to. So, a lot of trade valuations are subject to each of our own player evaluations too. I doubt that the RB of the future is on the Panthers roster yet, but there is also a chance that he is, as well. Maybe Pearman surprises, and becomes a Westbrook type. I am certanly not predicting that, but I wouldn't rule it out either. I also don't think Toefield is all that, but I thought that about Holmes too, way back when. If it were me faced with this trade, I'd probably do what I could to get more value.... but I do think I would stare at the cieling some, too! I wanted to also go against the common thought process, and look it it a bit differently. The truth is, in a deal like this, unless I knew all of the rosters, how many teams, how close i was to the holy league grail and understood the IDP scoring, I might well change my mind. But, given the limited info, I had a gut feel i'd look at this hard, and probably pull the trigger, with said caveats.

 

[redman]

I frankly don't think that Ruud, Crowder, DJ, Thurman, even Pollack or guys like Spears or Merriman last until his third round pick. Thomas Davis went at 1.9 in my dynasty, fer cryin out loud! (That guy had a slew of 1st rounders though, it made sense) . So, I don't buy into the "you can get an LB later scenario". not with a third round pick, you can't. In my IDP dynasty league, again, 16 teams, so if this is a 12 team league, it might play out differently, the first round was 13 O players. The second round was more like 14 D players. Additionally, I don't think Barnett is a sticker. I think he's a top twenty, but I'm not sure he can maintain even that over the long haul. I think he falls into the category of IDP that redman referred to. So, a lot of trade valuations are subject to each of our own player evaluations too.

Not saying you're wrong - every draft is of course different - but this is how my 14-team rookie IDP draft went FYI through the end of Round 4:

2.07 21 Johnson, Derrick o. KCC LB

2.08 22 EWare, Demarcus DAL DE

2.09 23 Merriman, Shawne SDC LB

3.02 30 Pollack, David CIN DE

3.04 32 James, Erasmus MIN DE

3.09 37 Rolle, Antrel ARI CB

3.11 39 Jones, Adam TEN CB

3.13 41 Ruud, Barrett TBB LB

4.02 44 Spears, Marcus DAL DE

4.03 45 Crowder, Channing MIA LB

4.04 46 Roth, Matt MIA DE Mon

4.05 47 Cody, Dan BAL DE

4.06 48 Jackson, Marlin IND CB

4.08 50 Rogers, Carlos WAS CB

4.09 51 Thurman, Odell CIN LB

4.11 53 Tatupu, Lofa SEA LB

4.14 56 Babineaux, Jonathan ATL DT

 

[Rovers]

Well, knowing your league can help you here too.... Crowder went at 3.2 in my league, and he was the last of the LB's. That includes the 'tweeners like Merriman and Ware. I think only Erasmus James was left.

 

[Dolfan34]

every rookie draft has been extremely different from what ive seen. although i agree that a lb is likely to last for him into the 3rd, it is by far a given. if you find some of the threads on these boards that show the zealots drafts, each and every one is WAAAY different. Ive seen guys get taken in the 3rd round in one league and the same player taken in the 6th in another. pearman went early second to the taylor owner in my league. as far as the trade is concerned... i dont have the time or the patience to give a detailed answer, but I wouldnt do it.

 

[Tenacious D]

However, with Toefield and Pearman, a starting RB is assured.

Yeah, but not necessarily a good one. Not too mention, nothing is assured. Greg Jones starts pounding away here and there while Toefield and Pearman (who isn't a lock to last to 3.02, dunno how big the league is, but as news on Taylor gets no better, he goes higher) are ineffective and the FB experiment ends promptly. Similarly, it's far from a lock Pierce is a top 10 LB. We see guys with more proven track records sign the big contract, move to another team, and disappear. What about Pierce makes you so confident it isn't remotely possible it happens to him?The POV that one of the top 3 rookie RBs busts factoring in the decision looses a lot of steam when, by comparison, you're agreeing Taylor brings and inordinate amount of risk, but suggesting going all in on a couple of fourth round RBs, one which you don't even have on your roster yet, both with a history of knee problems and a possible one-year wonder LB remaining a stud is sufficient to cover. I'll take the risk of one of the top 3 rookie RBs vs. all the stars aligning for the other situation to work for me.

Bottom line, that high of a pick has too much value. Even if you don't like the rookie RB choices, you can do much better than that trade.