IDP Position Spotlight: Dolphins Safeties (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Miami Dolphins Safeties: Gibril Wilson, Yeremiah Bell

Gibril Wilson Player Page

Yeremiah Bell Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the player(s)Projections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[therokie0070]

I got bell last year and thought I landed the top DB for this year and then Mia picked up Wilson!!!! I think Bell will still put up good numbers but not the 120 tkls I was counting on.

Bell 80 solo, 17 asisst, 2 INT

Wilson 69 solo, 15 assist, 6 int

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Since Bell is not much of a playmaker with only 1 career interception, it makes more sense for the Dolphins to use him closer to the line while Wilson (13 INTs over past 5 years) can help solidify things in the deep secondary. I expect both players to be active tacklers and finish among the best in the league at their position, but both will also hurt each other’s numbers compared to last season when they had less competition. Joey Porter provides great pressure up front and the return of Jason Taylor should also provide some help on passing downs. I think Wilson is the more talented and thus reliable player of the two, but all things being equal I’d rather have the strong safety so it’s hard to drop Bell outside of the top-5 safeties.

Bell: 84 solos, 22 assists, 1 sack, 0 INTs, 10 PDs, 2 FF, 2 FR

Wilson: 80 solos, 20 assists, 1 sack, 4 INTs, 8 PDs, 2 FF, 1 FR

 

[Jayrod]

I keep seeing over 160 solos projected between these two safeties. I just don't see it happening. Someone's production will not live up to expectations and it could be both. There just won't be enough opportunity for tackles up the middle (despite the weak LB corps).

I think Bell still reaches something like 80-20 with 1 INT, 1 sack, 2 FF & 2 FR's.

Wilson will need some big plays to be worth the price and that's a gamble. His tackle numbers will be lower, but more big plays than Bell. I'm expecting 65-12 with 6 INT's, 2 FF's & 2 FR's for Wilson.

 

[RommelDAK]

I keep seeing over 160 solos projected between these two safeties. I just don't see it happening. Someone's production will not live up to expectations and it could be both.

That's exactly what worries me. It's possible, but am I willing to take that chance? I hate to steer clear fo them both as I had them both last year (and now have that irrational desire to make them part of my team again!). But, I may let someone else take the chance.

 

[corpcow]

I own both (though neither in the same league), so I would love them each to be top 10 DBs but I just don't see that happening as you guys said. (Among other things, I expect some improvement from Crowder in his second year in the middle, and the defense itself played better yesterday).

That said, I have a gut feeling that Bell will be the better guy to own this year (at least in tackle heavy leagues). I don't really have anything substantial to back that up with other than the news of course that he's "more likely" to be in the SS, on-the-line role - but just the dynamics of bringing in the new guy, making it a priority to resign him, etc etc.

The good news is that this deflates Bell's perceived value, so he can at least be had a lot cheaper than he might have been otherwise.

I'm going to say:

Bell 85/20, 6-8 total big plays (FF/FR/INT), 12 PD

Wilson 65/20, 8-10 big plays, 6 PDs

 

[Jene Bramel]

I keep seeing over 160 solos projected between these two safeties. I just don't see it happening. Someone's production will not live up to expectations and it could be both.

That's exactly what worries me. It's possible, but am I willing to take that chance? I hate to steer clear fo them both as I had them both last year (and now have that irrational desire to make them part of my team again!). But, I may let someone else take the chance.

Every team divvies up its tackle opportunity differently.Last season, Dolphin safeties had 162 solo tackles (Bell-100, Hill-62). Channing Crowder had 92 in 15 games. I'm not suggesting that Bell repeats his 100 solo tackle performance by any stretch and I wouldn't feel comfortable projecting his ceiling to more than even 85 solos. The corners may be better this year, but who else projects to significantly cut into that 260 solo tackle projection from those three players last year. I don't think it's unreasonable to project both safeties to 75 or more solos. That's still rarefied air for a defensive back; 75 solos is usually near or within the top ten overall tacklers among defensive backs. With their big play potential, both have very strong arguments to be ranked in the preseason top ten.You can make the same arguments in Carolina (three players above 80 solos last year), San Diego (three players above 75 solos), Chicago (four players above 70 solos, three above 75), Minnesota (three players above 75). All of those instances include two secondary players. Other teams were on similar paces with multiple players at one position added together.Teams average around 840 solo tackles (ranging from 750-910 depending on all sorts of factors) a season. It's unusual but not that unusual for more three or more players in the back seven to each make 10% of their team's solo tackles. From last season's numbers alone, it's clear that having two secondary players with 10% or more of their team's solos happens often enough to not panic over this particular situation.Temper expectations accordingly, but don't over-react here if you like the talent of these guys.