IDP Rookie Spotlight: Defensive Ends (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Which rookie DEFENSIVE END will make the biggest impact in 2009?

Here are the highest rated players, but feel free to make a case for someone else:

Everette Brown (CAR) Player Page

Aaron Maybin (BUF) Player Page

Brian Orakpo (WAS) Player Page

Michael Johnson (CIN) Player Page

Connor Barwin (HOU) Player Page

Robert Ayers (DEN) Player Page

Lawrence Sidbury (ATL) Player Page

Tyson Jackson (KC) Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the player(s)Projections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Let's use this thread as the focal point for discussion on the rookie defensive ends this year.

To get us started, here are some guidelines:

1. Pick one defensive end who you think will have the biggest impact THIS year (can talk about dynasty potential as well, but 2009 is the focus)

2. Explain your reasoning

3. Provide your statistical projections for that player

 

[therokie0070]

Micheal Johnson for Cin only because all my top picks are being labeled LB faster than they can get on the field orakpo,maybin,Ayers. Johnson is in a good situation on a line that has struggled to stay healthy, dont see him getting a ton of sacks but should see 60+ tackles if he starts and stays in for 3 downs.

 

[lord_helmet]

You had me untill demand 3.

 

[therokie0070]

You had me untill demand 3.

Why if he starts but comes out on passing downs he will still do well just loss some looks thats all3 down 45 solo, 22 assist, 8 sacks2 down 38 solo, 12 assist, 4 sacks

 

[bcr8f]

I like Ayers if he's listed as a DE. He will play some OLB and I see 50 tackles, 14 assists, 2 sacks, 2 FF.

Passes defensed for DL instead of forced fumbles?

 

[pinda]

Ayers

Defense sorely lacking playmakers up front, 3 down player, most likely will play OLB on passing downs so he will have some opportunity get sacks.

38 tackles, 10 assists with 4-5 sacks.

Similar to Darnell Dockett's numbers last year.

 

[therokie0070]

like I said Orakpo, Maybin and Ayers are studs but just like Suggs for Balt even if they start as DE it will only be a matter of time before they are labled as LB. The three are trash as LB but could be top 10 DE in tkl heavy leagues.

 

[Birdie048]

I rank them as follows for 2009:

Orakpo Was- will play both DE & LB. Currently listed as DE in MFL. If he holds that status, he is a solid everydown player in a Defense that needs playmakers. He could be the Nitrous needed to make that engine run. They have alot of the pieces in place, but are missing the gear to make it all work. He could be that piece.

Projection: 48 tackles, 21 assists, 8 sacks, 4 FF, 1 FR, 2 PD, 0 Int

Maybin Buf - Scheobel will draw all the attention and leave the speedy Maybin opportunity to create havok in the backfield. This kid is fast. IIRC, 4.52? The LB's will draw enough attention to give him good tackle numbers.

Projection: 37 tackles, 26 assists, 7 sacks, 2 FF, 3 FR, 0 PD, 0 Int with a possible safety this year.

Brown Car - big, strong and complete package of DE. Will play in a rotating basis with Peppers and company. The DL will be the heart of the Panthers Def. It will all start there.

Projection: 28 tackles, 16 assists, 4 sacks, 2 FF, o FR, 0 PD, 0 Int

 

[awesomeness]

The projected tackle numbers for Maybin in this thread look really high to me. is there a quote form a Buffalo coach saying that Maybin will be anything more than a 3rd down specialist this year? Because Schobel and Kelsay are both good run defenders for DE's, and Maybin was a poor run defender at Penn State and i don't think he will be able to improve that drastically in just his first season in the NFL.

For this year only, i think Orakpo and Ayers are the 2 guys to have as both should be on the field often and should get playing time as both DE's and OLB's. I'll give the slight edge to Ayers because i think teams will be running on Denver all day long.

 

[Larry Thomas]

The projected tackle numbers for Maybin in this thread look really high to me. is there a quote form a Buffalo coach saying that Maybin will be anything more than a 3rd down specialist this year? Because Schobel and Kelsay are both good run defenders for DE's, and Maybin was a poor run defender at Penn State and i don't think he will be able to improve that drastically in just his first season in the NFL.

For this year only, i think Orakpo and Ayers are the 2 guys to have as both should be on the field often and should get playing time as both DE's and OLB's. I'll give the slight edge to Ayers because i think teams will be running on Denver all day long.

There has been some talk of Maybin gettin snaps at LB. Ayers and Orakpo both may be listed as LBs.

 

[pinda]

The projected tackle numbers for Maybin in this thread look really high to me. is there a quote form a Buffalo coach saying that Maybin will be anything more than a 3rd down specialist this year? Because Schobel and Kelsay are both good run defenders for DE's, and Maybin was a poor run defender at Penn State and i don't think he will be able to improve that drastically in just his first season in the NFL.

For this year only, i think Orakpo and Ayers are the 2 guys to have as both should be on the field often and should get playing time as both DE's and OLB's. I'll give the slight edge to Ayers because i think teams will be running on Denver all day long.

There has been some talk of Maybin gettin snaps at LB. Ayers and Orakpo both may be listed as LBs.

I read the plan was for Ayers to be on the line 1st and 2nd down and standing up on 3rd down. If that's the case, he will be a DE. That and for MFL who uses Roto, Orakpo is already listed as SLB and Ayers is as a DE. Hopefully that sticks for Ayers.

 

[Crippler]

This one is tough as the season nears, I fully expect Orakapo and Ayers to be listed at LB

So that leaves me Maybin by default as long as he stays at DE. I think Schobel is done and he could take his spot. So 32 T 9 S in the end. Micheal Johnson has chance to see good playing time. I think 30 tackles, 7 sack type of season. Sidbury is interesting and could get lots of sacks as situational player though. Jackson will see the most snaps but as most know a 3 DE is not very good statistically. Maybe 40 but like 3 sacks on the year. Barwin is future but alot see good things for Antonio Smith. Barwin is so raw so nothing early but by end of season he should pass the underachieving Smith. Brown I think does not much this year as I really like a young Charles Johnson to start all year opposite of Peppers. Brown could replace Peppers come next year though.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

any updated thoughts on these players heading into the season?

 

[bcr8f]

This one is tough as the season nears, I fully expect Orakapo and Ayers to be listed at LBSo that leaves me Maybin by default as long as he stays at DE. I think Schobel is done and he could take his spot. So 32 T 9 S in the end. Micheal Johnson has chance to see good playing time. I think 30 tackles, 7 sack type of season. Sidbury is interesting and could get lots of sacks as situational player though. Jackson will see the most snaps but as most know a 3 DE is not very good statistically. Maybe 40 but like 3 sacks on the year. Barwin is future but alot see good things for Antonio Smith. Barwin is so raw so nothing early but by end of season he should pass the underachieving Smith. Brown I think does not much this year as I really like a young Charles Johnson to start all year opposite of Peppers. Brown could replace Peppers come next year though.

Orakpo is SLB isn't he?

 

[T Bell]

This one is tough as the season nears, I fully expect Orakapo and Ayers to be listed at LBSo that leaves me Maybin by default as long as he stays at DE. I think Schobel is done and he could take his spot. So 32 T 9 S in the end. Micheal Johnson has chance to see good playing time. I think 30 tackles, 7 sack type of season. Sidbury is interesting and could get lots of sacks as situational player though. Jackson will see the most snaps but as most know a 3 DE is not very good statistically. Maybe 40 but like 3 sacks on the year. Barwin is future but alot see good things for Antonio Smith. Barwin is so raw so nothing early but by end of season he should pass the underachieving Smith. Brown I think does not much this year as I really like a young Charles Johnson to start all year opposite of Peppers. Brown could replace Peppers come next year though.

Orakpo is SLB isn't he?

Yes, for now. Or that's what he should be listed as. Long term I think he'll be a DE unless they switch to a hybrid scheme or he excels in the LB role.

 

[bcr8f]

This one is tough as the season nears, I fully expect Orakapo and Ayers to be listed at LBSo that leaves me Maybin by default as long as he stays at DE. I think Schobel is done and he could take his spot. So 32 T 9 S in the end. Micheal Johnson has chance to see good playing time. I think 30 tackles, 7 sack type of season. Sidbury is interesting and could get lots of sacks as situational player though. Jackson will see the most snaps but as most know a 3 DE is not very good statistically. Maybe 40 but like 3 sacks on the year. Barwin is future but alot see good things for Antonio Smith. Barwin is so raw so nothing early but by end of season he should pass the underachieving Smith. Brown I think does not much this year as I really like a young Charles Johnson to start all year opposite of Peppers. Brown could replace Peppers come next year though.

Orakpo is SLB isn't he?

Yes, for now. Or that's what he should be listed as. Long term I think he'll be a DE unless they switch to a hybrid scheme or he excels in the LB role.

3-4 defensive ends don't do too well in my leagues. We don't give many pts for sacks but he could get a few FF.