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IDP Rookie Spotlight: Safeties (1 Viewer)

Aaron Rudnicki

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2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Which rookie safety will make the biggest impact in 2009?

Here are the highest rated ones, but feel free to make a case for someone else:

William Moore (ATL) Player Page

Patrick Chung (NE) Player Page

Louis Delmas (DET) Player Page

Michael Mitchell (OAK) Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the player(s)Projections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Let's use this thread as the focal point for discussion on the rookie safeties this year.

To get us started, here are some guidelines:

1. Pick one safety who you think will have the biggest impact THIS year (can talk about dynasty potential as well, but 2009 is the focus)

2. Explain your reasoning

3. Provide your statistical projections for that player

 
I chose William Moore.

It comes down to Delmas and Moore for me, as I think Chung and Mitchell have more competition for a starting job, and I think Delmas will play more of a FS role, and see less tackles.

Safeties led the Falcons in tackles last year, as Coleman and Milloy were 1-2 for ATL.

66 tackles, 10 assists, 2 INT

 
I think for the 2009 season William Moore is easily in the best position to produce.

With his only competition for the SS job being Thomas DeCoud, he is almost assured to start, if not from Day 1 then quickly thereafter.

The same can be said for Mitchell, however those who expect him to replicate Wilson's numbers from 08 may want to take a closer look at the changing DC situation. Plus, Tyvon Branch may be more competition than he is generally expected.

Delmas will play more of a center field role.

Chung may be a 3rd safety for a significant chunk of the season.

Due to a stable defensive coaching staff and being an in the box SS Moore seems like the safest possible choice.

65 tackles, 2 Int, 1 sack

For dynasty purposes Chip Vaughn would be a close second to me.

 
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Moore's the safe pick, his risk is centered around a potential Roy Williams syndrome.

Delmas has big play potential and if he doesn't win a starting job given his competition something's wrong. I think he may be the most inconsistent of the four though.

Mitchell's the riskiest as he is a big unknown on the field, but I also think he has the highest ceiling.

PT and a dominating offense may be issues for Chung, but I think he's the most talented of the four. I would think he'd get a bump in return yardage leagues based on his skillset but I haven't read anything to lead me to believe he'll be on those units.

For this season I'm deciding between Moore and Mitchell and taking the one that better fits my team (Mitchell - if I'm deep and can take a chance, Moore - if I need someone I probably have to rely on)

 
I like Delmas even though Moore is a safer pick. He's all over the field making plays in camp and I think that will continue when the season starts.

Lions | Delmas only solid starter at safety (Wed Jul 1, 01:55 AM) - Tom Kowalski, of Mlive.com, reports Detroit Lions rookie S Louis Delmas is the only solid starter at safety for the Lions right now. The Lions play left and right safeties under their new scheme, they do not run with free and strong safety positions.

Our View: Safety Kalvin Pearson has been running as the other starter, but the Lions view him more as a backup player. Daniel Bullocks and Marquand Manuel are competing with Pearson for the starting safety spot opposite rookie Louis Delmas.

 
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At this point, given the indications from New England that Chung is likely to be groomed for a season before assuming a larger defensive role, this is a three man competition.

While I like Delmas, I'm not sure he has the upside at FS that Moore and Mitchell have at SS. Michael Griffin has been productive in a Jim Schwartz defense, but that production has been heavily big play related. There will be more tackle opportunity for Delmas, but it's hard to count on similar big play numbers. Mitchell is extremely intriguing as a hitter likely to earn playing time early with plenty of tackle opportunity. Ignore the fuss over his selection in the second round and look at the bigger picture. But I still favor Moore out of this group. The position has been productive and Moore has the talent to match what Lawyer Milloy has done in recent seasons. I'm not buying into the Thomas DeCoud at SS rumors. I think Moore starts opening weekend and sticks.

William Moore 73 solos, 16 assists, 0 sacks, 2 FF/FR, 1 INT, 5 PD

Michael Mitchell 70 solos, 20 assists, 0 sacks, 2 FF/FR, 0 INT, 2 PD

Louis Delmas 55 solos, 14 assists, 0 sacks, 1 FF/FR, 2 INT, 6 PD

 
Kevin Ellison has a good chance to start at strong safety in San Diego. Wouldn't be surprised if he is the #2 rookie safety behind Moore.
Not a bad call. He's in a good spot. I question the talent however.I'm not at all sure he represents an upgrade to Hart, who was horrible last year.
 
I like Delmas even though Moore is a safer pick. He's all over the field making plays in camp and I think that will continue when the season starts.Lions | Delmas only solid starter at safety (Wed Jul 1, 01:55 AM) - Tom Kowalski, of Mlive.com, reports Detroit Lions rookie S Louis Delmas is the only solid starter at safety for the Lions right now. The Lions play left and right safeties under their new scheme, they do not run with free and strong safety positions.Our View: Safety Kalvin Pearson has been running as the other starter, but the Lions view him more as a backup player. Daniel Bullocks and Marquand Manuel are competing with Pearson for the starting safety spot opposite rookie Louis Delmas.
If we're talking about on the field impact, I think Delmas will be a force. But I don't want to count on him in FF. I'll take Mitchell actually.
 
Kevin Ellison has a good chance to start at strong safety in San Diego. Wouldn't be surprised if he is the #2 rookie safety behind Moore.
Not a bad call. He's in a good spot. I question the talent however.I'm not at all sure he represents an upgrade to Hart, who was horrible last year.
Ellison appears too coverage challenged to make it as a safety in todays NFL. A 4.87 forty at the combine didn't help. Had surgurey on the left knee twice and right once. Just don't see how he can play on the back end, he'll struggle to keep up with TEs.
 
Hope most of these calls are right. I'm rebuilding an IDP dynasty team and selected both Moore and Mitchell in our rookie draft this year. My woeful team could really use the help.

 
I just grabbed Mitchell after Delmas and Moore went in the 2 picks before me...Kind of forced my hand, but I hope I get lucky.

 
A little update on Delmas. He will be playing corner in the nickle pacage ala Madue Williams. This guy will be on the field a ton. And if they pick on rookie corners then they will almost for sure go at a rookie safty lined up as corner. I think we get four solid safeties from the draft this year. Moore, Mitchell, Delmas, and Chung. Some may not start right out, but in 2010 all these guys will be fantasy worthy. Pick for this year is Delmas. I would project 65 solos, 12 assists, 1 sack, 3 INT, 3 FF, 1FR, and 10 PD.

 
I think Mitchell will be the #1 scoring rookie safety as I think the Raiders will be playing him regardless unless he absolutely sucks. The updates from camp I have read so far, did not sound like that was the case.

Moore was a complete liability in the passing game in college, very unlikely he improves that in the pro's, as someone else stated I think regardless of what kind of tackler you are, if you can't cover anyone (See Roy Williams) you will not be starting. Moore was also hurt in and had minor surgery which could set him back several weeks.

 
While players like Moore, Chung, and Mitchell all have higher upside because they are competing for a starting strong safety spot on their respective teams, Delmas should outperform all of them this year. He seems certain to start from the beginning and he is a better player in coverage than the other two so the team will be able to keep him on the field in all situations

Projection: 62 solos, 16 assists, 0 sacks, 2 INTs, 9 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR

 

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