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IDP Spotlight: Brian Dawkins (1 Viewer)

Aaron Rudnicki

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2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brian Dawkins, S, Denver Broncos

Brian Dawkins Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the playerProjections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Brian Dawkins will turn 36 during the season and is moving to a new team and a new scheme this year. Rumors of his demise are everywhere. But there's plenty to like about him this year. From his roaming free safety role, he was still able to put up 64 solos last year. The big play numbers that usually buoyed those so-so tackle stats rebounded some last year after a shaky 2007 (three sacks, six forced fumbles and six passes defensed). He's moving to a team that should provide plenty of tackle opportunity and he's expected to shift into more of a run support role as the Broncos' likely SS. You could do worse at DB3 late in your draft.

Projection: 67 solos, 19 assists, 1 sack, 3 FF/FR, 2 INT, 6 PD

 
Dawkins has finished as a #1 fantasy safety 5 times in the past 7 seasons and the only two misses (2003, 2007) came during injury-shortened seasons. He’ll turn 36 years old in October, but he finished the 2008 season extremely strong with 28 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles in his last 5 games including 3 in the playoffs. The Broncos defense lacks the personnel to make a quick transition to a 3-4 scheme and will likely struggle both generating pressure and getting off the field. That should help out Dawkins, who will get his fair share of blitzing opportunities and plenty of tackles as a result. He suffered a broken hand that could force him to miss most of the preseason but reports indicate he should be ready to go for the season opener and he’s a veteran who should be able to pick up the new defense pretty quickly.

64 solos, 14 assists, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 8 PD, 2 FF, 1 FR

 

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