IDP Spotlight: Chris Horton (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Horton, S, Washington Redskins

Chris Horton Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the playerProjections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Larry Thomas]

Like Quintin Demps/Sean Jones, the ChrisHorton/Reed Doughty is a another intersting IDP position battle to watch this summer. IMO Landry should be the SS, but he is their best cover guy. Horton looked impressive at times last year, but his lack of coverage skills may have been exploited as the season progressed. Coming out of UCLA, some scouts felt he may be better suited to bulk up and play WLB in the pros so his coverage limitaions could be masked. I know it sounds like a broken record, but in todays NFL the SS needs to have better cover skills than in the past. If Reed Doughty can return fully healthy from back surgery, this could turn out to be an ugly platoon situation. I expect Horton to win out here, he has nice upside, but comes with some risk. Needs to improve in coverage to be the long term answer.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Despite entering the league a year ago as an unheralded 7th round rookie safety, Horton started week 2 against the Saints and made a huge contribution with 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. He followed that up with another interception in week 4 that started off an impressive 6-week stretch of games where he was one of the most productive IDPs in the league. His production became more inconsistent later in the year but he showed enough potential to give fantasy players hope that he could be a headed for a breakout season this year. With LaRon Landry patrolling the deep secondary, Horton is allowed to play up closer to the line of scrimmage. The additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo should allow the Redskins to be more aggressive up front and help create plenty of great opportunities for this young playmaker.

70 solos, 24 assists, 2 sacks, 3 INTs, 8 PDs, 2 FF, 2 FR

 

[Jayrod]

I read an article on Horton that mentions his propensity to study the playbook.

Apparently last year he was constantly trying to learn the defenses while fighting for playing time....yet he managed to get 53-19 with 5 big plays.

His drive and willingness to learn has not been lost on the coaching staff. This year he's more comfortable and the likely starter from day 1. Haynesworth will make the entire defense better, but that Washington offense will still have its struggles.

I can see 75-25 tackles with about 8 big plays scattered in. A low end DB1 or top end DB2 depending on scoring.

 

[T Bell]

Like Quintin Demps/Sean Jones, the ChrisHorton/Reed Doughty is a another intersting IDP position battle to watch this summer. IMO Landry should be the SS, but he is their best cover guy. Horton looked impressive at times last year, but his lack of coverage skills may have been exploited as the season progressed. Coming out of UCLA, some scouts felt he may be better suited to bulk up and play WLB in the pros so his coverage limitaions could be masked. I know it sounds like a broken record, but in todays NFL the SS needs to have better cover skills than in the past. If Reed Doughty can return fully healthy from back surgery, this could turn out to be an ugly platoon situation. I expect Horton to win out here, he has nice upside, but comes with some risk. Needs to improve in coverage to be the long term answer.

Doughty doesn't have the athleticism that Horton does, and Horton is now much more sound within the scheme than he was last year. Doughty's also not been able to hold up under the rigors of a full NFL season as a starter. They'll have more confidence putting Horton back in coverage this year, and they've already said that Landry will be playing more "in the box".

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'd be interested to hear any recent news on Doughty, as well as any possible scheme changes.

I was a little curious about Horton, so I'll go through and list his week by week participation:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_team.ph...ts=&gameid=

wk1 - 12% of snaps -- mostly big nickel

wk2 - 98% (Doughty out w/flu)

wk3 - 43% -- mostly big nickel (Doughty 80%)

wk4 - 77% (Doughty 60%)

wk5 - 96%

Doughty out for year -- pinched nerve ---> back surgery

wk6 - 73%

wk7 - 93%

wk8 - OUT (Mike Green 95%)

wk9 - 72%

wk11 - 92%

wk12 - 60%

wk13 - 95%

wk14 - 27% (knocked out in 2nd quarter?)

wk15 - OUT (Mike Green 97%)

wk16 - 94%

wk17 - 55% (knocked out in 3rd quarter?)

I think those 60-80% participation games are them pulling him in nickel and leaving the linebackers in, so that's just scheme.

I'll add up his significant participation weeks (2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17(x1.5) -- 11 weeks) then project out over 16 games:

83-26 tackles, and about 7 pd with a few picks and a couple sacks.

 

[Gators]

I'd be interested to hear any recent news on Doughty, as well as any possible scheme changes.

I was a little curious about Horton, so I'll go through and list his week by week participation:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_team.ph...ts=&gameid=

wk1 - 12% of snaps -- mostly big nickel

wk2 - 98% (Doughty out w/flu)

wk3 - 43% -- mostly big nickel (Doughty 80%)

wk4 - 77% (Doughty 60%)

wk5 - 96%

Doughty out for year -- pinched nerve ---> back surgery

wk6 - 73%

wk7 - 93%

wk8 - OUT (Mike Green 95%)

wk9 - 72%

wk11 - 92%

wk12 - 60%

wk13 - 95%

wk14 - 27% (knocked out in 2nd quarter?)

wk15 - OUT (Mike Green 97%)

wk16 - 94%

wk17 - 55% (knocked out in 3rd quarter?)

I think those 60-80% participation games are them pulling him in nickel and leaving the linebackers in, so that's just scheme.

I'll add up his significant participation weeks (2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17(x1.5) -- 11 weeks) then project out over 16 games:

83-26 tackles, and about 7 pd with a few picks and a couple sacks.

Great stuff.

 

[T Bell]

Like Quintin Demps/Sean Jones, the ChrisHorton/Reed Doughty is a another intersting IDP position battle to watch this summer. IMO Landry should be the SS, but he is their best cover guy. Horton looked impressive at times last year, but his lack of coverage skills may have been exploited as the season progressed. Coming out of UCLA, some scouts felt he may be better suited to bulk up and play WLB in the pros so his coverage limitaions could be masked. I know it sounds like a broken record, but in todays NFL the SS needs to have better cover skills than in the past. If Reed Doughty can return fully healthy from back surgery, this could turn out to be an ugly platoon situation. I expect Horton to win out here, he has nice upside, but comes with some risk. Needs to improve in coverage to be the long term answer.

Doughty doesn't have the athleticism that Horton does, and Horton is now much more sound within the scheme than he was last year. Doughty's also not been able to hold up under the rigors of a full NFL season as a starter. They'll have more confidence putting Horton back in coverage this year, and they've already said that Landry will be playing more "in the box".

I'm quoting this in follow up to my statement that Landry will be playing more in the box:

Blache expects big things from Landry

By David Elfin on Aug. 19, 2009 into Redskins 360

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Redskins defensive coordinator Greg Blache expects free safety LaRon Landry to play this season like the sixth pick in the draft that he was in 2007.

"This could be a real breakout year for him. He's healthy. He's got the position figured out. We'd like to see the big plays. We'd like to see LaRon with six, eight picks, with some of those big hits, with some big [pass] breakups. We'd like to see LaRon really create fear in the hearts of quarterbacks where they don't want to throw the ball deep down the middle or even down the sideline."

-- David Elfin

Note that Blache says nothing about Landry making an impact in the offensive backfield - he's talking exclusively about coverage, which may mean that he's not going to play up very often, just like last year.

 

[dgreen]

And then there's Reed Doughty who reportedly has had a great camp:

Doughty Will Have Major RoleEven if Chris Horton starts at strong safety, Reed Doughty is expected to play a major role on defense and special teams."He's always been a [John] Havlicek for us," defensive coordinator Greg Blache said. "He has no problem coming off the bench, being that sixth guy, making plays, helping win ballgames, without having to a starter. The one thing we talk about here, in this day and age in the National Football League, your starters are just the first 11 guys that run out on the field. It doesn't mean that they're necessarily the most intricate portion of your whole football team. You can't function without the Reed Doughtys ... because nobody can play the whole game."It's not like when guys could come and play the game from start to finish at all positions. It's such a physical game that you have to have a lot of people, even on that second level and on special teams. Reed has always been a dynamic special-teams player for us. He comes in on our 'Cobra' package [three safeties] ... there are packages that we'll have Reed on the field that'll help us match up. He's a true professional. ... He's had a good camp, and we're expecting a big year from Reed. And one thing about our business, you're one play away from being a starter."

Horton is tough to figure out this year. I don't see Blache going with conventional personnel and lineups. For example, they are going to play Orakpo at SLB just to get him on the field. But, I doubt he plays a typical SLB role. Similarly, Smoot is working at FS some in camp. Moving him back to FS on some plays will allow Landry play in the box as already mentioned. With Doughty, and probably Kareem Moore, in the picture too, what does that mean for Horton? It's hard to figure out.