What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

IDP Spotlight: Eric Weddle (1 Viewer)

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Staff
2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eric Weddle, S, San Diego Chargers

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/WeddEr99-1.php

Eric Weddle Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the playerProjections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I've been leading the E-Dub bandwagon since he was drafted....therefore understand that these projections may be slightly biased.

Weddle seems like the consomate professional who makes up his lack of measureables with heart, preparation, and intelligence. Plain and simple, he's a football player who is always around the ball and never takes a play off. A good drinking game you could probably play during San Diego games is "Where's Weddle". Who ever finds #32 first after any San Deigo tackle is safe, the rest have to drink. (you'll need plenty of beer as he is always in or around the pile somewhere).

I'm also placing a high value on character here...there's also a piece of mind you have with owning Eric Weddle versus the constant anxiety you have owning guys like Brandon Marshall, or Marshawn Lynch (whom I also own... :thumbup: ). Weddle will not hold out of camp, he will not get arrested, he will not show up out of shape (he may looked ripped like a bag of milk but he is in shape!!), and he will constantly work on his craft to get better every day.

Ok, ok, I'll stop swinging from his nuts and come down for a couple of minutes to give some projections.

As tackle opportunities is an extremely important stat in forecasting performance, its safe to say that Weddle's tackle opportunities will most likely be lower with Merriman and company back. Therefore I believe there will be a drop in Weddle's solo tackles. With his motor however, I personally see an increase in assists. Also, having a full year as a starter under his belt, Weddle's the type of guy that can draw on that experience and should be able to think less about the system and react a little faster causing more big plays.

Not many people will argue that Weddle is more valuable in tackle heavy leagues than big play leagues. I'm a believer that this year, he will be a great option in big play leagues aswell.

Solo 85

Assist 26

Sack 1

Int 4

FF 3

FR 1

PD 8

 
For much the same reasons as stated above (he's going to have less opportunities for tackles this year), my projections for Weddle are about the same as has already been said, although I do agree that with the added pass rush SD should have this year his big play numbers should increase a bit:

Solo - 82

Assist - 23

Sacks - 1

INT - 3

PD - 9

FF - 2

FR - 0

 
Ok, first of all this isn't any kind of in depth or meaningful numerical analysis --- it's mostly a half assed listing of stats, but I was getting curious about them because of all the mentions of lost tackle opps.

So, I will consult this site....

http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_team.ph...ts=&gameid=

....and list a few comparisons between '07 and '08 --- Note: there are some games missing from the site, so I'll fill out a bit using playoff games, and all tackle #'s are also taken from this site.

2007

wk1 CHI

38 total solo tackles

weddle played 13 snaps

leading tackler: cooper 7 solos

edit: (see end of post)

FS plays faced - 53

SS - 53

BS - 13

wk2 @Pats

50 st

weddle - 36 plays

cooper 7 st

jammer 6 st

FS 71 plays

SS 71

BS 36

wk4 KC

43 st

weddle 31 plays

merriman 7 st

polk (LOLB) 6 st

florence 6 st

FS 62

SS 62

BS 31

wk6 OAK

44 st

weddle - 37 plays

phillips 6st

florence 5 st

weddle 5 st

FS 75

SS 75

BS 37

wk10 IND

58 st

weddle - 46 plays

hart 10 st

wilhelm 8 st

cooper 7 st

FS 92

SS 92

BS 46

wk11 @JAX

45 st

weddle OUT

phillips 10 st

mcree (FS) 7 st

FS 64

SS 64

BS 32

wk 13 @KC

45 st

weddle 23 plays

phillips 6 st

cooper 6 st

cromartie 5 st

FS 69

SS 77

BS 23

wk14 @TEN

52 st

weddle 34 plays

wilhelm 8 st

hart 6 st

FS 67

SS 67

BS 34

WC TEN

46 st

weddle 14 plays

phillips 10 st

FS 65

SS 64

BS 14

DIV @IND

49 st

weddle 51 plays

cooper 14 st

FS 70

SS 70

BS 51

conf champ @Pats

47 st

weddle 24 plays

cromartie 7 st

weddle 6 st

cooper 5 st

mcree 5 st

FS 67

SS 66

BS 24

total solos - 517 over 11 games = 47 st/game

weddle total plays - 309 over 10 games = 30.9 plays/game (didn't count the game he was out)

of 11 games, I believe only 2 weeks was the leading tackler from the secondary.

1857 safety plays faced over 22 safety/games = 84.4 plays/safety/game (see below edit)

2008

wk1 CAR

51 total solos

weddle - 75 plays

hart 8 st

weddle 8 st

FS 75

SS 75

BS 17

wk2 @DEN

52 st

weddle - 84 plays

jammer 10 st

gregory (43 plays FS) 8 st

FS 84

SS 72

BS 43

wk3 NYJ

42 st

weddle - 70 plays

cromartie 6 st

hart 6 st

weddle 5 st

FS 70

SS 56

BS 44

wk4 OAK

43 st

weddle - 72 plays

weddle 6 st

jamal williams 5 st

FS 72

SS 72

BS 17

wk5 Miami

57 st

weddle - 72 plays

cromartie 8 st

dobbins (RILB) 8 st

weddle 7 st

FS 72

SS 72

BS 4

wk6 Pats

44 st

weddle - 70 plays

weddle 10 st

FS 70

SS 70

BS 5

wk8 @NO

49 st

weddle - 72 plays

dobbins 7 st

FS 72

SS 72

BS 9

wk11 @PIT

59 st

weddle - 78 plays

jammer 10 st

weddle 8 st

cooper 7 st

FS 78

SS 78

BS 32

wk12 IND

53 st

weddle - 74 plays

jammer 9 st

weddle 8 st

jamal williams 8 st

FS 74

SS 74

BS 32

wk13 Atl

54 st

weddle - 70 plays

jammer 8 st

weddle 7 st

FS 70

SS 22

BS 52

wk14 OAK

33 st

weddle - 53 plays

gregory (SS) 6 st

*hart OUT

FS 53

SS 53

BS 2

WC IND

44 st

weddle - 71 plays

jammer 6 st

weddle 6 st

cooper 6 st

*hart only managed 17 plays, and it looks like they were playing mostly nickel

FS 71

SS 54

BS 16

BS 17

DIV @PIT

50 st

weddle - 73 plays

cooper 10 st

weddle 8 st

FS 73

SS 48

BS 26

BS 13

631 total solos over 13 games = 48.5 st/game

weddle total plays - 934 over 13 games = 71.8/game

if I counted right, it looks like about only 1 extra st per game from this limited sampling, although the secondary led the way w/a leading tackler (or co-leader) in 11 of 13 weeks, which is quite a difference from '07.

2081 total safety plays over 26 safety/games = 80 plays/safety/game

about 4 fewer than last year --- being that this whole thing is kind of hamfisted, I'd call that about even.

total plays might be a more interesting stat than total solos, but I'm kind of burnt out on it right now -- if anybody has them handy?

edit: ok, I got my second wind, so what I'll do is go back and edit in the # of plays listed on that site for each safety spot

free (FS)

strong (SS)

bench or other (BS)

*note: 2007 lists weddle as bench cb a couple times, but I'll count him at bs.

then I'll add up all the plays and divide them over TWO safety spots per game.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There's a statistical argument here that suggests that even if you believe that Weddle's numbers drop significantly with Stephen Cooper there for a full season, the expected improvement in pass rush and possibly at RILB and elsewhere in the secondary there's room for Weddle to still be productive. The question is how much do you think the numbers will drop. Drop Weddle's numbers by 20% from last season and he's still an 80 solo tackle player. That's very often good enough to finish in the top five.

Unfortunately, the same argument could have been made for a guy like Jonathan Vilma once upon a time. I think there are two primary questions to ask yourself with Weddle this year. First, will the RILB and SS positions be improved enough to steal some pursuit tackle opportunities from Weddle? Even one tackle a game is significant. Second, how much of Weddle's production in 2008 derived from an unusually high percentage of pass completions within the Charger tackle opportunity? With the potential for an improved pass rush dropping the total snaps and a natural regression toward norms in run-pass distribution opportunity, Weddle's numbers may easily drop more than 20%.

For now, Kevin Burnett, Clinton Hart and Shawne Merriman all remain sizable question marks. Weddle is a fundamentally solid, rangy player. I think he's more likely to finish with 80 solos than 65, which keeps him in the top five with the current DB group so full of question marks. However, it's very hard to project another 90+ solo season here.

Projection: 77 solos, 18 assists, 1 sack, 2 FF/FR, 2 INT, 8 PD

 
I outlined my problems with Weddle in my ranking comments:

- San Diego faced 605 passing attempts vs 408 rushing attempts last year - artificially inflating Weddle's tackle numbers

- Whether it's Clinton Hart or Kevin Ellison at strong safety, Eric Weddle is going to have to handle deep coverage responsibilities

- For all of the pass attempts against and tackle opps Weddle had, he only had 1 INT, 1 FR, and 5 PD

- Weddle is not a quick twitch guy and has to play very far from the LoS to be able to defend the deep pass.

- He's not powerful SS, not a ballhawking FS, I think he could eventually become a player without a home position.

I would definitely let someone make Weddle the cornerstone of their secondary in IDP leagues this year.

 
As was already noted… Weddle faced a lot of pass attempts. SD gave up a league leading 25.7 completions per game, six more than the league average (19.7), and 4.6 more than they did in ’07. The Chargers could see a large number of pass attempts faced again this year, but expect the completions to come down to the 20-21 range.

In 2007 the San Diego defense was mid pack in tackle ops with a 49.8 per game (the same as the league average) and the Charger LBs led the league in total tackles and solos, no defensive back topped 70 solos.

LB play is most likely the key here. Weddle should still have solid numbers; I’ll go with 74-16-1 with 3 picks and 9 PDs.

 
Weddle's struggles after the first two weeks, is this a trend? Or is it the product of not having a lot of opportunities from facing the Chiefs and Jags?

 
dddeals said:
Weddle's struggles after the first two weeks, is this a trend? Or is it the product of not having a lot of opportunities from facing the Chiefs and Jags?
Was he a FS or SS last year?Clearly a FS this year, and though I did not see yesterday's game, he was rarely in the play against the Chiefs.
 
dddeals said:
Weddle's struggles after the first two weeks, is this a trend? Or is it the product of not having a lot of opportunities from facing the Chiefs and Jags?
Was he a FS or SS last year?Clearly a FS this year, and though I did not see yesterday's game, he was rarely in the play against the Chiefs.
I am contemplating dropping him for TJ Ward? What do you guys think?
 
dddeals said:
Weddle's struggles after the first two weeks, is this a trend? Or is it the product of not having a lot of opportunities from facing the Chiefs and Jags?
Was he a FS or SS last year?Clearly a FS this year, and though I did not see yesterday's game, he was rarely in the play against the Chiefs.
they moved him over from ss to fs --- gregory's ss, I believe, that's why he's racking up the tackles weddle used to get.jene -- is there something intrinsic about sd's scheme that feeds these guys tackles, because I honestly wouldn't think they'd have greater opps than a guy on cle, for instance.
 
Weddle's struggles after the first two weeks, is this a trend? Or is it the product of not having a lot of opportunities from facing the Chiefs and Jags?
Was he a FS or SS last year?Clearly a FS this year, and though I did not see yesterday's game, he was rarely in the play against the Chiefs.
they moved him over from ss to fs --- gregory's ss, I believe, that's why he's racking up the tackles weddle used to get.jene -- is there something intrinsic about sd's scheme that feeds these guys tackles, because I honestly wouldn't think they'd have greater opps than a guy on cle, for instance.
Drop Weddle and roll with Gregory the rest of the way?
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top