IDP Spotlight: Julius Peppers (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

2009 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 20-30 players, which should account for many of the most interesting IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Julius Peppers, DL, Carolina Panthers

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/PeppJu99-1.php

Julius Peppers Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player or players in question, and your expectations for said player(s)
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the playerProjections should include the following categories at minimum:

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Moniker]

Peppers is a tough one to call this year. Even though he's in a contract year, I don't see him in the top 5 of the DL this year again. He's just too erratic and has never posted back to back double digit sack seasons. I'll put him about 15 by the end of the year with:

Solo - 43

Assists - 10

Sacks - 9

PD - 5

FF - 4

FR - 1

INT - 1

 

[Jene Bramel]

There's no science behind it, but I believe the career highs and improved game-to-game consistency from Peppers last season were in large part motivated by the prospect of a big contract. That motivation is back again after Peppers signed a franchise tender without a long term deal clearly on the horizon. A motivated and healthy Peppers is a monster. The only potential blemish is his relatively weak run support totals over the past two seasons.

Projection: 43 solos, 11 assists, 13 sacks, 5 FF/FR, 0 INT, 6 PD

 

[maxwelledison]

There's no science behind it, but I believe the career highs and improved game-to-game consistency from Peppers last season were in large part motivated by the prospect of a big contract. That motivation is back again after Peppers signed a franchise tender without a long term deal clearly on the horizon. A motivated and healthy Peppers is a monster. The only potential blemish is his relatively weak run support totals over the past two seasons.Projection: 43 solos, 11 assists, 13 sacks, 5 FF/FR, 0 INT, 6 PD

Jene, what percentage of his mediocre run-support is a function of his overall game vs. his overall effort? As a follow up, do you think there is any chance that improves or is this a what-you-see-is-what-you-get situation for the remainder of his career? My $.02 - I know a lot of DEs age gracefully but a material change to someone's motor/effort or approach may be a bit much to ask. I'm not sure I see Peppers aging like Strahan.

 

[Jene Bramel]

There's no science behind it, but I believe the career highs and improved game-to-game consistency from Peppers last season were in large part motivated by the prospect of a big contract. That motivation is back again after Peppers signed a franchise tender without a long term deal clearly on the horizon. A motivated and healthy Peppers is a monster. The only potential blemish is his relatively weak run support totals over the past two seasons.Projection: 43 solos, 11 assists, 13 sacks, 5 FF/FR, 0 INT, 6 PD

Jene, what percentage of his mediocre run-support is a function of his overall game vs. his overall effort? As a follow up, do you think there is any chance that improves or is this a what-you-see-is-what-you-get situation for the remainder of his career? My $.02 - I know a lot of DEs age gracefully but a material change to someone's motor/effort or approach may be a bit much to ask. I'm not sure I see Peppers aging like Strahan.

I like to look at a simple metric like solos less sacks to get some idea of how much an end contributes as run support. Generally speaking, the stud two way ends have an SLS number of 30+, with some pushing 40 or more.Peppers SLS numbers since his rookie season:2002 172003 322004 422005 28.52006 362007 282008 25.5Fairly solid numbers, but certainly nothing special. I think he's begun to take plays off at times, which hurts his pursuit numbers. I don't think there's anything specific in his skill set or scheme that would limit his run support potential. I think a 50 solo season isn't out of the question for him. However, if we didn't see it in during a contract year that should've provided plenty of motivation, I don't think it's coming.

 

[maxwelledison]

Thanks, Jene.

 

[J Giles Band]

I'm in agreement with Jene that the career highs and improved game-to-game consistency from Peppers last season were in large part motivated by the prospect of a big contract. That said, I would add the move to DRE likely played a role as well. Regardless a 15 sack, 5 fumble forced season is elite by any standard.

What's changed: Peppers requests to be traded... Peppers drops his trade request and signs franchise tender... as of this writing Peppers indicates he's willing to consider a long term deal with the Panthers

Prediction: working on the assumption that a long term deal won't be reached, Peppers should be plenty motivated again in 2009. His inconsistency (especially in the tackle department) will again be frustrating to his owners, but the big play sack bonanzas should remain. Expect Peppers to remain a DL1, albeit an inconsistent one. His fluctuation will continue and he is not without risk. His DL1 status may be more tenuous than most. A DL2/DL3 year would not come as a complete surprise.

41 solos, 10 assists, 12 sacks, 3 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 5 PDs

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Ive built an IDP dynasty team or two around Peppers, and wow is he frustrating. Hot and cold from game to game, hot and cold within a game. I think that the contract motivation theory is a decent one, but I'm a little worried about Carolina's schedule. Last year, five of Peppers 14.5 sacks, and three of his five forced fumbles, came against bottom dwellers Oakland and Detroit. No such luck in the schedule this year, in fact the Panthers get the AFC and NFC East + Minnesota and Arizona when they aren't playing divisional foes. I still have him ranked very highly (top 5) because of the talent, but expect things like the total goose egg he put up against Denver in week 15, which is sort of important in fantasy football terms as weeks go. Peppers is only two years removed from a season when Paul Spicer and Stylez White were better options than him (finished as DE27), and if the team struggles, his production could fall to something closest to that disaster of a year than his DE3 season from last year.