IDP Spotlight: Tamba Hali (Group 2) (1 Viewer)

[Aaron Rudnicki]

2008 IDP Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The IDP Forum here has grown quickly over the past few years and is probably the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things related to IDPs. In what we hope to make an annual tradition, the IDP Spotlight series will be a key part of our preseason effort this year. As many of you know from what has been done with offensive players over the years, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we hope to publish IDP Spotlights for approximately 50-60 players, which should account for most of the key IDP starters for this year and possibly years to come.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week (or possibly longer) of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways.

1) At the end of the week (or longer when necessary), we will tally the projections into a consensus.

2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tamba Hali, DE, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Tamba Hali Player Page

Each published article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, we request that you provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For DLs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, PD
For LBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PD
For DBs: Solos, Assists, Sacks, INT, PDNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jayrod]

I had Tamba Hali on my team in a tackle heavy league last season and found his season disappointing. He finished as the #23 DL in total points, but his biggest game was in week 17 (which was the top DL score that week). When it mattered, he wasn't even in the top 24 and I drafted him as the 13th DL off the board.

For some odd reason, his play dropped after Jared Allen came back from his 2-game suspension. In a 4 week stretch (wks 4-7) he posted a combined 4 solos, 2 assists & 0.5 sacks. Then came the bye week which was followed by 2 good weeks (15 & 17), 6 average weeks and then one other bad week (10). Basically, he wasn't even a DL2 for the majority of the season when he was really expected to be high end DL2 and possible DL1. With no injury or major team changes I was left to simply scratch my head and wonder whether to hold onto him or cut bait during that really bad stretch of games.

While he was a pleasant surprise his rookie year and finished as the #15 DL, he seemed to experienced a sophomore slump. While he earned praise as a hustling high-motor guy in year 1, he just didn't seem to get much done in year 2. While his rankings appear to be fairly high on many draftboards, there are some serious doubts about what his production will be this season.

So here we are in his 3rd year and FBG's currently has him ranked at #12 in redraft and #10 in dynasty. He no longer has Jared Allen on the other side, but he now has what many consider to be the best defensive player from this year's draft in Glenn Dorsey starting inside at D-tackle. How will this effect his numbers? Will he rebound and return to his 2006 form, or have opponents figured him out and is 2007 really the trend? Can he improve?

After looking at his numbers, the biggest differences were the big plays (FF, FR's & INT's). He had six in 2006, but only two in 2007. His tackle numbers and sacks were extremely consistant between the two years.

I have no real idea where things will go for him. My projections fall down the middle for him between the two prior years.

45 solos, 14 assts, 1 FR, 3 FF's, 7.5 sacks

That's good enough for a mid-range DL2 in most formats. I believe his potential is much higher (top 10 possible), but we could see an even worse year than last year if Dorsey doesn't play well and he becomes the only real threat on the D-line. Odds are, I won't be drafting him this season (but maybe that's just sour grapes talking).

 

[Rozelle]

KC has moved Hali over to Jared Allen’s RDE position. How much will the loss of Allen affect Hali’s production?

Will RDE be his home, or is he just keeping it warm for someone like a Brian Johnston?

Will the fact the Chiefs plan to play more man coverage this year than last, have an impact? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It would help if Dorsey lines up at RDT, but from what I’ve read, it’s likely to be LDT. I’m not sold on Hali ever being an elite pass rusher.

 

[pretender]

I think that Dorsey will take some double teams and allow Hali more room to maneuver as the RDE I see an increase in his sacks. I think most DE need seasoning and it takes a few years to really learn the position and the scheme. I see somewhat a breakout for Hali - he may not be another Allen but he will be better than he has been.

50 solo

15 assists

5 forced fumbles

1 fumble recover

0 interceptions

10.5 sacks

3 PD

 

[Jene Bramel]

KC has moved Hali over to Jared Allen’s RDE position. How much will the loss of Allen affect Hali’s production?

Will RDE be his home, or is he just keeping it warm for someone like a Brian Johnston?

Will the fact the Chiefs plan to play more man coverage this year than last, have an impact? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It would help if Dorsey lines up at RDT, but from what I’ve read, it’s likely to be LDT. I’m not sold on Hali ever being an elite pass rusher.

Got a link for this?Given that the undertackle is traditionally a RDT, this would be significant for Dorsey's potential value.

 

[pretender]

KC has moved Hali over to Jared Allen’s RDE position. How much will the loss of Allen affect Hali’s production?

Will RDE be his home, or is he just keeping it warm for someone like a Brian Johnston?

Will the fact the Chiefs plan to play more man coverage this year than last, have an impact? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It would help if Dorsey lines up at RDT, but from what I’ve read, it’s likely to be LDT. I’m not sold on Hali ever being an elite pass rusher.

Got a link for this?Given that the undertackle is traditionally a RDT, this would be significant for Dorsey's potential value.

no link - pay site - it was quoted on a question and answer that "Hali simply because he will be playing right next to Dorsey. He won't see a double team all year."

 

[Jene Bramel]

KC has moved Hali over to Jared Allen’s RDE position. How much will the loss of Allen affect Hali’s production?

Will RDE be his home, or is he just keeping it warm for someone like a Brian Johnston?

Will the fact the Chiefs plan to play more man coverage this year than last, have an impact? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It would help if Dorsey lines up at RDT, but from what I’ve read, it’s likely to be LDT. I’m not sold on Hali ever being an elite pass rusher.

Got a link for this?Given that the undertackle is traditionally a RDT, this would be significant for Dorsey's potential value.

no link - pay site - it was quoted on a question and answer that "Hali simply because he will be playing right next to Dorsey. He won't see a double team all year."

The only recent note I've seen on Dorsey was a KC Star story that got picked up and incorrectly summarized by Rotoworld (as is so often the case) saying that Dorsey was being made into a read-and-react tackle, when the primary source said exactly the opposite. It may be that the other site ran with that and drew the same incorrect conclusion.It seems clear to me (see this article posted by Bob Magaw last month) that Dorsey is the RDT/UT. It's subtle, but I'm a stickler for details and there's a significant ripple effect on the KC defensive line if things have changed.

 

[jah2707]

I don't think it has been mentioned yet but, Last year Tamba had either a foot or leg injury most of the year. So far all reports from camp said he is 100% I see him getting:

45 solo

15 assists

5 forced fumbles

1 fumble recover

0 interceptions

10 sacks

3 PD

 

[Rozelle]

KC has moved Hali over to Jared Allen’s RDE position. How much will the loss of Allen affect Hali’s production?

Will RDE be his home, or is he just keeping it warm for someone like a Brian Johnston?

Will the fact the Chiefs plan to play more man coverage this year than last, have an impact? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It would help if Dorsey lines up at RDT, but from what I’ve read, it’s likely to be LDT. I’m not sold on Hali ever being an elite pass rusher.

Got a link for this?Given that the undertackle is traditionally a RDT, this would be significant for Dorsey's potential value.

I'm tryin' to find it.

 

[Rozelle]

KC has moved Hali over to Jared Allen’s RDE position. How much will the loss of Allen affect Hali’s production?

Will RDE be his home, or is he just keeping it warm for someone like a Brian Johnston?

Will the fact the Chiefs plan to play more man coverage this year than last, have an impact? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It would help if Dorsey lines up at RDT, but from what I’ve read, it’s likely to be LDT. I’m not sold on Hali ever being an elite pass rusher.

Got a link for this?Given that the undertackle is traditionally a RDT, this would be significant for Dorsey's potential value.

I'm tryin' to find it.

This has to be it ...Rookie tackle Glenn Dorsey is expected to start immediately, likely alongside veteran Ron Edwards or Turk McBride.

My bad ... I seen McBride and assumed they were talkin DE, I obviously didn't read it close enough. Sorry bout that.

Kansas City Star

 

[Jayrod]

I don't think it has been mentioned yet but, Last year Tamba had either a foot or leg injury most of the year.

I'd really like to know if this is true or not, because it makes a signifigant difference when looking at last years numbers. I thought he was healthy last year and just regressed. If he really had some physical issues, that changes my outlook for him this year.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

bump to try and get some more responses/projections before we write this one up for the website

 

[The Jacket]

Probably far too late and worthless now, but as a new guy to IDP and Chiefs homer, I will add some thoughts.

- As mentioned above, Hali was injured last year. It was actually a pretty significant injury but being the type of guy he is he played through the pain without any complaints. Obviously, though, it hurt his production. He lacked two things -- perhaps the two most important things a DE needs -- an initial burst and functional strength/leverage. He simply got bullied by the bigger OTs, while playing well against the more undersized ones.

- Everything I've read suggests Dorsey will be lining up next to Hali. They want to get as much pressure as they can on that right side. I have a feeling teams will run at this side, too, which could increase Hali's tackle numbers, because the LDT-LE spots should be occupied by Tank Tyler/Ron Edwards and Alfonso Boone/Turk McBride - two nose tackles, a DT playing DE and a solid 280lb. DE/DT tweener.

- I, like others, question Hali's ceiling. I'm not sure he'll ever get 15 sacks in his career. He's a really solid player, but in some games against the bigger, elite tackles, he's a complete non-factor against the pass. He hustles and you can see his name pop up every now and then, but he isn't closing the deal and getting consistent pressure. If you're the type of owner who likes to take a chance, I don't think Hali is your guy. Because of his motor and natural talent, I think he has a high floor, but also a low ceiling.

My projection:

60 tackles (45 solo)

10.5 sacks

2 PD

2 FF

0 FR

0 INT