IDP's who are for real this year! (1 Viewer)

[stevec]

I'm hoping this gets looked at by some of the new guys in this forum.I'm noticing question about IDP's who are proven commodities and whether they are "for real" or not.My recommendation is to take a look at how these guys scored over the last two years in your league. If you use MFL you can take a look back at last years top 30/60, etc.For the players without track records who are breaking out, have new roles, or are rookies, it's a bit harder to determine. These are the guys we need to discuss heavily to get the edge on our competition.I do realize that leagues using very few IDP's at a position makes things frustrating - sort of like trying to pick the kicker who's going to have a hot week.In those sorts of leagues, I'd recommend trying to decide whether you want to go for steady performance or feast/famine type players. Then find those guys and stick to it.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Feast or Famine. I think this describes Dan Morgan to a tee. I no longer have time for him. Dan Morgan you are voted off the island.

 

[JAA]

I am more interested in learning how IDPs perform over a season. For example, if you have a top 10 RB who starts slow, typically he will even out over time. With an IDP that stats out slow, will he even out over time or stay on average? What are the contributing factors to this?

 

[Bloom]

one thing to watch out for with IDPs is how the game went. i mean, if a defense is only on the field for 35-40 snaps, and more than half of those are passes, its hard for any LB to rack up tackles. likewise, if a team gets blown out, the DEs arent going to get sack opportunities...you get the idea. look beyond the numbers to see what kind of game was played to see if inflation/deflation of numbers has more to do with better/worse play, or just a blip because of a game that was lopsided.

 

[RestoreTheROAR]

Feast or Famine. I think this describes Dan Morgan to a tee. I no longer have time for him. Dan Morgan you are voted off the island.

Same with Sam Co(uch)wart...no time for his injury riddled ### on my roster

 

[stevedug]

unless you want to actually work at spending time looking at stats and reading, the easiest way to track IDP performance is to just look on your leagues point scoring stats or on a similar web site and go with whoever is hot or consistant. or you can come on this site and just ask "who should i play, who should i drop, who should i pick up" otherwise, tracking IDP performance and trying to figure out why things happen takes actual work. looking at the nfl.com gamebook for each week's game is a great tool. if you look at it over the course of a several weeks you can see trends and abberations. as bloom said in this topic, the game flow can effect alot of things. who a team plays can also matter alot. also, injuries play a much bigger role in IDP than for offensive players. IDP's often play with injuries that can lower their stats. they also often get hurt during the course of a game.there are also lots on intangibles that can play a big role. a young player may not be "getting it" early in a season but a light comes on later. an older player may start out strong and wear down or not really do anything wrong and be replaced by "next years starter." or an older player may be a back up and then be strong due to an injury to a starter. alot of this kind of stuff is only in the local papers.

 

[nortobc]

unless you want to actually work at spending time looking at stats and reading, the easiest way to track IDP performance is to just look on your leagues point scoring stats or on a similar web site and go with whoever is hot or consistant.  or you can come on this site and just ask "who should i play, who should i drop, who should i pick up"

otherwise, tracking IDP performance and trying to figure out why things happen takes actual work.  looking at the nfl.com gamebook for each week's game is a great tool.  if you look at it over the course of a several weeks you can see trends and abberations.  as bloom said in this topic, the game flow can effect alot of things.  who a team plays can also matter alot.

also, injuries play a much bigger role in IDP than for offensive players.  IDP's often play with injuries that can lower their stats.  they also often get hurt during the course of a game.

there are also lots on intangibles that can play a big role.  a young player may not be "getting it" early in a season but a light comes on later.  an older player may start out strong and wear down or not really do anything wrong and be replaced by "next years starter."  or an older player may be a back up and then be strong due to an injury to a starter.  alot of this kind of stuff is only in the local papers.

What I always look for in the box score is players who rack up tackles. A player might get 27 points one week and when you check out the box score, he had 2 tackles, 1 assist, an INT and a PD. I don't like to have guys who make their points off of turnovers or sacks because those stats are not consistant. The next game that player might garner 2 takles and 2 assists (8 points).

I always get guys who consistantly get the bulk of their points from tackles. My current defensive starters are:

Julius Peppers

Patrick Kerney

Keith Bulluck

Brian Urlacher

Lemar Marshall

Adrian Wilson

Gibril Wilson

Kerry Rhodes/Will Demps

These guys get tackles and are usually very consistant.

 

[stevec]

I agree that tackles are big inidcators. A player can make a big play playing few snaps, but since there is a tackle on almost every play, it's a better indicator of amount of time spent on the field - you can't rack up big tackle numbers on few snaps.

 

[taylorj99]

I like to crunch the numbers at NFL.com. Take the players you're interested in, throw out everything except tackles. Toss out the highest game and the lowest, and make an average. That's the number I use to compare players at a given IDP position.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

I like to crunch the numbers at NFL.com. Take the players you're interested in, throw out everything except tackles. Toss out the highest game and the lowest, and make an average. That's the number I use to compare players at a given IDP position.

Pretty much what I do, except i don't necessarily throw out the high and low unless they are truly outliers. As the season progresses it becomes easier to determine outliers. Early on if you threw out the high and low you would have no stats.