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If Kevin Smith keeps the #1 RB job all year, he is a top 15 RB (1 Viewer)

DevilintheDetail

Footballguy
Assuming neither Best nor Leshoure end up taking a major role in the offense, is Kevin Smith a top 15 RB? I say yes. He is involved in the passing game, so there seems to be a lot of check-down upside to his game. The offense will be very good and he seems to have a good burst right now.

 
The problem is that you have WAY too many assumptions. First, you presume he will stay healthy (which, FBGs doesn't have a font size large enough for that "if"). Second, you preface it by saying "Assuming neither Best nor Leshoure end up taking a major role in the offense" - which is another assumption that is pretty large.

Most people don't deny Smith has talent - but injury and splitting time WILL hurt his numbers. I will be shocked if this is still a conversation after week 6.

 
Assuming neither Best nor Leshoure end up taking a major role in the offense, is Kevin Smith a top 15 RB? I say yes. He is involved in the passing game, so there seems to be a lot of check-down upside to his game. The offense will be very good and he seems to have a good burst right now.
I think Smith has a great chance at being a weak #1 rb or a very solid #2 and here's why.

1/ I have zero faith that Javid best is going to play a single down in the NFL this season and while it is true that Smith is injury prone, Best is beyond brittle.

2/ Leshoure is coming off a major injury and has almost no experience in the NFL.

3/ Leshoure's style of running does not fit in well with what the Lions want to do. No question he could steal goal line and short yard situations from Smith, but Smith is superior in the open field and catching passes out of the backfield.

4/ Leshoure could actually help Smith in the sense that he would take some wear and tear off the diminutive Smith.

5/ Kevin Smith is making the most of his oppritunity. Smith looked great yesterday as well as the games last season where he came in off the street for Best.

6/ IF (and it's a huge IF) Smith stays healthy all season I believe he will be in the conversation for a top 15 finish.

 
Hey Slugger - LeShoure was ready to play to start the season - the only reason he isn't playing the first two weeks is because of a suspension. He will be back to at a minimum sharing touches with Smith in Week 3

 
I think you could almost pick any RB, and say "If (Tatum Bell) keeps the #1 RB job all year, he is a top 15 RB." Any RB, any team. There are only 32 teams, so just by being healthy all year you're going to top several RBs who aren't the #1RB all year either bc of injury or other players getting promoted above them.

Any RB. Any team. If given the #1 RB job and staying healthy, borderline top 10-15 RB on the season.

 
Not a big limb here - the questions on him are health and LeShoure based. His price reflects both of those very real concerns. If he's the feature back all year he's probably even better, I'd say top 10.

 
even if smith stays healthy(which he never has), leshore will seriously hurt his value in 2 weeks when he takes the goal line carries. I would sell high after next week if i owned smith...

 
Hey Slugger - LeShoure was ready to play to start the season - the only reason he isn't playing the first two weeks is because of a suspension. He will be back to at a minimum sharing touches with Smith in Week 3
LeShoure's injury is one that players don't typically come back from, and if they do they are a shell of their former selves. Granted, we don't know what kind of a player LeShoure WAS, but I feel confident betting on him being a career backup at best.Smith's biggest value is in the passing game, so Best does present a threat. I guess we'll have to see how that plays out. But as far as I'm concerned, Best is Smith's only threat.
 
3/ Leshoure's style of running does not fit in well with what the Lions want to do. No question he could steal goal line and short yard situations from Smith, but Smith is superior in the open field and catching passes out of the backfield.
We obviously haven't seen Leshoure in NFL action, but Leshoure was great in the open field and catching passes in college, so I don't think it's safe to assume Kevin Smith is better in those areas.
 
3/ Leshoure's style of running does not fit in well with what the Lions want to do. No question he could steal goal line and short yard situations from Smith, but Smith is superior in the open field and catching passes out of the backfield.
We don't know yet much about what Leshoure can do out of the backfield but he did have 2 catches for 39 yards in the preseason. Smith caught 3 passes for 28 yards. In college Leshoure averaged 11.9 YPC on 37 career catches and Smith averaged 8.1 YPC on 45.

 
Hey Slugger - LeShoure was ready to play to start the season - the only reason he isn't playing the first two weeks is because of a suspension. He will be back to at a minimum sharing touches with Smith in Week 3
LeShoure's injury is one that players don't typically come back from, and if they do they are a shell of their former selves. Granted, we don't know what kind of a player LeShoure WAS, but I feel confident betting on him being a career backup at best.Smith's biggest value is in the passing game, so Best does present a threat. I guess we'll have to see how that plays out. But as far as I'm concerned, Best is Smith's only threat.
Maybe true ten years ago. I think technology has advanced tremendously. Case in point Demaryius Thomas.
 
If I win the lottery tonight, I will be rich.
Alright, alright. Maybe this isn't helpful. If not, then fine. But I don't think it is that big of an assumption at this point to assume Kevin Smith keeps the #1 RB job. Certainly not so big of an assumption that it isn't work considering his value if that holds true. Best may never play a down this year (he's still not cleared from a concussion from last year and has had several brutal concussions during his football career) and Leshoure is completely unproven, is coming off a terrible Achilles injury (much worse than a torn ACL), hasn't shown he can pass protect, and hasn't shown much of anything in the preseason. Everyone around here loves to anoint guys like Leshoure, David Wilson, and Hillman before they've proven anything and even if they have a solid guy in front of them. The Lions have SuperBowl aspirations and a franchise QB that has been hit/injured quite a bit in the past. It makes sense that a solid vet that can protect Stafford like Smith would keep the job if he's playing as well as he did during Week 1.
 
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So we're basically saying to SELL Smith NOW for whatever you can for him? Sounds like his stock will only go down from this point- SF next week, LeShoure returning after that...sell sell sell...although, i doubt a savvy owner would give up much for Smith...

Maybe its best to just hold on to him, as long as you temper your expectations. We very well may have seen Smith's best game of 2012. But I think he can still be useful when LeShoure comes back. Not sure how the Lions plan on utilizing the tandem, but its not inconceivable for Smith to still be a useful Fantasy RB while sharing the load. But unless LeShoure bombs or gets hurt again, we probably won't see Smith have another game like he did in Week 1.

 
This thread isn't really saying much. Any feature running back that plays 16 games is likely to finish as a top 15 running back, especially one on a high-powered offense like Detroit.

Smith wasn't drafted as a non top 15 back because people didn't think he'd put up any points if he was the feature guy in Detroit. He was drafted lower because people were concerned he would share time and/or get injured yet again. Removing those doubts via a simple qualifying statement removes the entire reason that he wasn't a lock as a top 15 running back in the first place, and thus isn't really saying anything.

 
IF Matt Ryan throws 50 TDs, and IF he throws less than 10 TDs, and IF he stays healthy, he will be a top QB this season.

Not really going out on a limb when you include so many improbably "IFs", are you?

 
In a ppr league would you start kevin smith over michael bush next week?
I'd say always go with the guy who you know will be the workhorse back. Hard to predict how many opportunities Bush will get at the Goal Line, and since that's basically his value then its hard to feel comfortable starting him over a guy who will get all of his team's carries. Kevin Smith may not get a lot of yards on the ground against that stingy SF run defense, but I can see him catchin 5 or 6 balls for around 40-50 yards...add that to 50 or so yards on the ground with the possibility of a TD, and that will make him a better option than Bush.
 
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IF Matt Ryan throws 50 TDs, and IF he throws less than 10 TDs, and IF he stays healthy, he will be a top QB this season.Not really going out on a limb when you include so many improbably "IFs", are you?
Not trying to go out on a limb, trying to have a discussion about his value if this happens. Also, I don't think the "ifs" are that improbable.
 
Hey Slugger - LeShoure was ready to play to start the season - the only reason he isn't playing the first two weeks is because of a suspension. He will be back to at a minimum sharing touches with Smith in Week 3
LeShoure's injury is one that players don't typically come back from, and if they do they are a shell of their former selves. Granted, we don't know what kind of a player LeShoure WAS, but I feel confident betting on him being a career backup at best.Smith's biggest value is in the passing game, so Best does present a threat. I guess we'll have to see how that plays out. But as far as I'm concerned, Best is Smith's only threat.
Maybe true ten years ago. I think technology has advanced tremendously. Case in point Demaryius Thomas.
I wouldn't be so fast to assume this. I think it is more related to if it was a partial or full tear. I can't find that info on either LeShoure or Thomas.All I could find was this from another thread. No idea where this guy got his info from:
Thomas partially tore his Achilles, while LeShoure fully ruptured his.
 
even if smith stays healthy(which he never has), leshore will seriously hurt his value in 2 weeks when he takes the goal line carries. I would sell high after next week if i owned smith...
I'd sell high this week, actually - the Lions are playing at SF next week, which isn't going to help his value at all.
 
even if smith stays healthy(which he never has), leshore will seriously hurt his value in 2 weeks when he takes the goal line carries. I would sell high after next week if i owned smith...
I'd sell high this week, actually - the Lions are playing at SF next week, which isn't going to help his value at all.
Good advice. Exactly what I was going to write. If you are determined to move him, do it now. As excited/pleased as I was with his performance yesterday, he is virtually unstartable this week unless you simply have NO other options for some reason. This is going to be an ugly outing against the Niners defense.My advice would be to bench him if you can for W2, pray he stays healthy, then ride him going forward.
 
Here's the play by play for Leshoure during the Lions final preseason game and only his second time seeing action. A lot of one and two yard carries but he never lost yardage and had a TD as well as 7 and 10 yard carries. He also added a 33 yard reception.

The series I liked was Leshoure getting the ball on 1st and goal at the 9, gaining 7 yards and on the next play getting into the endzone.

1st and 10 at DET 20 M.Leshoure left tackle to DET 22 for 2 yards (N.Barnett; C.Kelsay).

2nd and 8 at DET 22 M.Leshoure left tackle to DET 27 for 5 yards (K.Sheppard; C.Kelsay).

3rd and 3 at DET 27 (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to M.Leshoure pushed ob at BUF 40 for 33 yards (J.Byrd).

1st and 10 at BUF 40 M.Leshoure right tackle to BUF 39 for 1 yard (N.Barnett).

1st and 10 at BUF 24 M.Leshoure up the middle to BUF 24 for no gain (K.Sheppard).

2nd and 10 at BUF 24 (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to M.Leshoure.



1st and 9 at BUF 9 DET #14- S. Hill now in at QB. (Shotgun) M.Leshoure up the middle to BUF 2 for 7 yards (Sp.Johnson).

2nd and 2 at BUF 2 (No Huddle) M.Leshoure up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1st and 10 at BUF 40 M.Leshoure left end to BUF 30 for 10 yards (J.Rogers).

1st and 4 at BUF 4 (No Huddle) M.Leshoure left tackle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (D.Searcy; D.Howell).

2nd and 2 at BUF 2 M.Leshoure right tackle to BUF 1 for 1 yard (N.Bradham).
 
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Here's the play by play for Leshoure during the Lions final preseason game and only his second time seeing action. A lot of one and two yard carries but he never lost yardage and had a TD as well as 7 and 10 yard carries. He also added a 33 yard reception.

The series I liked was Leshoure getting the ball on 1st and goal at the 9, gaining 7 yards and on the next play getting into the endzone.

1st and 10 at DET 20 M.Leshoure left tackle to DET 22 for 2 yards (N.Barnett; C.Kelsay).

2nd and 8 at DET 22 M.Leshoure left tackle to DET 27 for 5 yards (K.Sheppard; C.Kelsay).

3rd and 3 at DET 27 (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to M.Leshoure pushed ob at BUF 40 for 33 yards (J.Byrd).

1st and 10 at BUF 40 M.Leshoure right tackle to BUF 39 for 1 yard (N.Barnett).

1st and 10 at BUF 24 M.Leshoure up the middle to BUF 24 for no gain (K.Sheppard).

2nd and 10 at BUF 24 (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to M.Leshoure.



1st and 9 at BUF 9 DET #14- S. Hill now in at QB. (Shotgun) M.Leshoure up the middle to BUF 2 for 7 yards (Sp.Johnson).

2nd and 2 at BUF 2 (No Huddle) M.Leshoure up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1st and 10 at BUF 40 M.Leshoure left end to BUF 30 for 10 yards (J.Rogers).

1st and 4 at BUF 4 (No Huddle) M.Leshoure left tackle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (D.Searcy; D.Howell).

2nd and 2 at BUF 2 M.Leshoure right tackle to BUF 1 for 1 yard (N.Bradham).
tried to buy him in the one league I didn't own him but couldn't get it done. Hoping Smith's performance will lower the price a bit.
 
Here's the play by play for Leshoure during the Lions final preseason game and only his second time seeing action. A lot of one and two yard carries but he never lost yardage and had a TD as well as 7 and 10 yard carries. He also added a 33 yard reception.

The series I liked was Leshoure getting the ball on 1st and goal at the 9, gaining 7 yards and on the next play getting into the endzone.

1st and 10 at DET 20 M.Leshoure left tackle to DET 22 for 2 yards (N.Barnett; C.Kelsay).

2nd and 8 at DET 22 M.Leshoure left tackle to DET 27 for 5 yards (K.Sheppard; C.Kelsay).

3rd and 3 at DET 27 (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to M.Leshoure pushed ob at BUF 40 for 33 yards (J.Byrd).

1st and 10 at BUF 40 M.Leshoure right tackle to BUF 39 for 1 yard (N.Barnett).

1st and 10 at BUF 24 M.Leshoure up the middle to BUF 24 for no gain (K.Sheppard).

2nd and 10 at BUF 24 (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to M.Leshoure.



1st and 9 at BUF 9 DET #14- S. Hill now in at QB. (Shotgun) M.Leshoure up the middle to BUF 2 for 7 yards (Sp.Johnson).

2nd and 2 at BUF 2 (No Huddle) M.Leshoure up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1st and 10 at BUF 40 M.Leshoure left end to BUF 30 for 10 yards (J.Rogers).

1st and 4 at BUF 4 (No Huddle) M.Leshoure left tackle to BUF 2 for 2 yards (D.Searcy; D.Howell).

2nd and 2 at BUF 2 M.Leshoure right tackle to BUF 1 for 1 yard (N.Bradham).
I was at that game and he had a couple nice plays - the 33 yard catch and set up the TD. But his ypc was bad, granted it was pre-season. Im thinking K.Smith starts and LeShoure gets worked in.

Lions need the depth, and I wouldnt count on Best for anything

 
If he stay's healthy and keeps the #1 RB job, he's likely a top 10 RB in PPR. There was a ton of room for him in the flat with defenders focusing on Megatron and the passing game.

 
even if smith stays healthy(which he never has), leshore will seriously hurt his value in 2 weeks when he takes the goal line carries. I would sell high after next week if i owned smith...
That's not true.
Solid point. He stays healthy when he isn't playing football.
He was a major workhorse in college, and iirc, had two solid, injury-free years for some truly terrible lions teams. And yes, he had some injuries after that. But the point that he never stayed healthy is ridiculous.
 
Anyone know how Leshoure has been in pass protection? Safe to say he's not going to get much time, even if healthy, unless he is pretty solid in that department. Few rookies are.

 
'DevilintheDetail said:
Anyone know how Leshoure has been in pass protection? Safe to say he's not going to get much time, even if healthy, unless he is pretty solid in that department. Few rookies are.
Actually Leshoure was one of the few rookie backs that was a really good pass blocker.
 
IF Matt Ryan throws 50 TDs, and IF he throws less than 10 TDs, and IF he stays healthy, he will be a top QB this season.

Not really going out on a limb when you include so many improbably "IFs", are you?
Snark works better when it makes sense. Nice job.
 
I will start with this assumption: Best will be a non-factor. As someone else posted, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't play a down this year, or maybe ever.

If you agree with that, why not try to add Leshoure rather than selling Smith?

Most people in this thread seem to be saying they think Smith will be very good until he gets hurt. But if he gets hurt and Best is a non-factor, doesn't that imply Leshoure could be just as good as Smith?

The question becomes which is better value - getting what you can in selling Smith or paying what you have to pay to acquire Leshoure. In many cases, the better value may be to add Leshoure.

 
I will start with this assumption: Best will be a non-factor. As someone else posted, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't play a down this year, or maybe ever.If you agree with that, why not try to add Leshoure rather than selling Smith?Most people in this thread seem to be saying they think Smith will be very good until he gets hurt. But if he gets hurt and Best is a non-factor, doesn't that imply Leshoure could be just as good as Smith?The question becomes which is better value - getting what you can in selling Smith or paying what you have to pay to acquire Leshoure. In many cases, the better value may be to add Leshoure.
I've locked down their backfield in two leagues with K.Smith and Leshoure. It was honestly a minor investment even though it does require some extra bench space. I'm dreading the likely timeshare though.
 

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