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If Republicans won the Presidency, House and Senate in 2020, what would the inflation rate be right now? (1 Viewer)

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Interesting seeing the fiscal conservative 8+’s that don’t believe injecting 2 trillion plus, into an already red hot economy in addition to giving the upper middle class free money in the form of student loan forgiveness, didn’t have a major impact on where we are now. Not even remotely honest. 

 
Of course can you say the same for 8+?
I think estimating it would be similar to what we have is reasonable. Infinitely more so than saying less than 2% :lol:

I wouldn’t trust any politician to have not cut checks in an election coming out of Covid year just different who would be getting it. 

 
I think it would be around 5. I just wanted to see how many people are delusional to think that the stimulus, infrastructure and pausing of student loans for 2 years for the laptop class didn’t drive the number up considerably. If the Republicans remained in office, those 3 things wouldn’t have happened.
On what basis are you assuming republicans wouldn't have spent like drunken sailors?

 
I think estimating it would be similar to what we have is reasonable. Infinitely more so than saying less than 2% :lol:

I wouldn’t trust any politician to have not cut checks in an election coming out of Covid year just different who would be getting it. 
It wouldn’t be and snotbubbles laid out why. 

 
Interesting seeing the fiscal conservative 8+’s that don’t believe injecting 2 trillion plus, into an already red hot economy in addition to giving the upper middle class free money in the form of student loan forgiveness, didn’t have a major impact on where we are now. Not even remotely honest. 
The next time I see a "fiscal conservative" presidency will be the first...at least the first since 1999.

 
The thread title and OP reeks of Democrats' test-driving their midterm "messaging". 

The Blue Team is in charge. It's your problem to solve. You've denied it, contributed to it, were epically slow to react, and now failing to help fix it. In fact it's getting worse by the month under your watch.

Midterms will be a referendum on Dems' performance on economy and inflation since Jan 2021. Period.

Hypothetical "what if scenarios" that blame shift to GOP aren't going to play very well with voters, and so the whole exercise in here is pointless.

 
Snotbubbles said:
I can tell you how I arrived in the 2-3% range.  First I looked at core inflation (removes food/energy from calculation) in the Eurozone it's at 3.8%.  So based on those numbers I figured pandemic driven inflation issues like supply chains and continued lockdowns affecting the world economy would be around regardless of which party was in control since they are factors that the US doesn't control. 

Then I figured, the first two stimulus were already out there before the election so they would add inflationary pressures regardless of which party was in control.  Based on that, I don't think the US would be able to attain a 3.8% core inflation like the Eurozone so it would be slightly higher.  The current core inflation for the US is 6%.  So why is the US 2.2% higher?  The 1.9T Cares Act is certainly one reason.  Our economy is totally different than the Eurozone as well.  Their workers have gone back to work, labor participation rate of nearly 75% compared to 62% in the US.  This has caused the US to have a higher wage growth than the Eurozone, those costs get passed to the consumer.  So without the Cares Act, it's possible that workers would have returned to the Labor Force faster which would help hold wages down which would help reduce the costs of goods.  It's all speculation, but those are some of the things I thought about.
This is a fair analysis. But a question I have for you is with the Cares Act long behind us at this point and we haven’t seen much of an increase in labor participation rates after it wouldn’t it also be fair to say that the cares act didn’t really affect much on that front. Yes it pumped money into the economy but I’m not sure at this point it had a significant impact on whether people came back to work or not, as they really aren’t back yet.  So the wage pressures would have been there regardless.  

 
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Stoneworker said:
The thread title and OP reeks of Democrats' test-driving their midterm "messaging". 

The Blue Team is in charge. It's your problem to solve. You've denied it, contributed to it, were epically slow to react, and now failing to help fix it. In fact it's getting worse by the month under your watch.

Midterms will be a referendum on Dems' performance on economy and inflation since Jan 2021. Period.

Hypothetical "what if scenarios" that blame shift to GOP aren't going to play very well with voters, and so the whole exercise in here is pointless.
Dems will get pounded in November.

This is a political message board though so it’s a great topic for this place. 

 
The infrastructure money STILL isn't in our economy in any meaningful way....why do people keep bringing it up as if it was?

 
All good. What are your thoughts?
It would be lower. Maybe by half. But Trump would have been such a wild card it's impossible to say for certain.

All 50 GOP senators voted against the Rescue Plan. 

17 GOP governors rejected Covid stimulus. So it was in the party's bloodstream.

GOP congressional members have identified inflation as a major issue for well over a year. So there wouldn't have been Biden's denial. They would have acted sooner.

You wouldn't have had an idiot former Fed chief like Yellen as Treasury Secretary shouting "Go Big!" to Congress from the rooftops.

Trump may have made life so bad for Powell that Powell may have gotten so beat down that he acted sooner to raise rates and end QE.

You would have had substantial movement on domestic oil and gas drilling. Potential lag effect on actual prices but still impactful.

For some reason, Trump had succeeded in deterring Putin from invading Ukraine. Maybe he would have appeased Putin by pulling a Neville Chamberlain and simply giving him the Donbas. Who knows. But I doubt the economic sanctions would have been nearly as drastic.

 
Philo Beddoe said:
Interesting seeing the fiscal conservative 8+’s that don’t believe injecting 2 trillion plus, into an already red hot economy in addition to giving the upper middle class free money in the form of student loan forgiveness, didn’t have a major impact on where we are now. Not even remotely honest. 
It was WAY more than $2T pumped into the economy at "red hot" stage.  The Trump Tax cuts were more than that alone, then there was the money printing in 2020 which dumped trillions more in.  Then there were the first two rounds of "covid stimulus" that pumped trillions more in, then there were the tillions you are talking about.  We were well into inflation problems prior to the loan forgiveness stuff that was just approved in May.

I don't think things would be meaningfully different on the inflation side, but I do agree with some of the mentions here that the GOP wouldn't have injected this last round of funds.  All that likely does is put us in a recession faster.  Recession is inevitable IMO....would have just come sooner.

 
I don't think things would be meaningfully different on the inflation side, but I do agree with some of the mentions here that the GOP wouldn't have injected this last round of funds.  All that likely does is put us in a recession faster.  Recession is inevitable IMO....would have just come sooner.
While I generally agree with this, I'm not so sure about an actual recession. Yes. At this point it is definitely inevitable.

But much of the stimulus and loose monetary policy fed the economy in the form of liquidity and/or wealth effects from the stock market. If both a) stimulus was cut off end of 2020 and b) Fed tightened sooner, then the stock market would not gotten nearly as out of control and lack of liquidity would mean consumer spending would have dried up sooner.

Not saying the GOP was smart enough to pull that off...but a guy with Larry Summers' insights guiding policy and an administration that listened could have avoided most of the current mess.

 
sho nuff said:
I believe my post was worthy.  You seemed to agree with me...by stating that money printing started prior to Trump with Obama...that it was an issue that contributes to our current inflation.  We continued that style of printing money in the 4 years of Trump...as well as thus far under Biden. 

Do you agree...that fiscal policy that dates back at least to Obama, includes Trump and Biden...have contributed to our current record inflation?  That it was not just created in the last 18 months or so?
We don’t agree on much but all those commie bailouts under trump going to companies who should have been allowed to fail contributed to inflation. Same as when Obama did it after that walking human disaster Bush. Same as when Clinton bailed out long term capital management in 98 with Greenspan. The uni-party has brought us here. They all got rich selling our jobs and national security to China. Ross Perot was right. You hear that giant sucking sound? Well corporate America sure sucked us dry with congressional approval every step of the way and a complicit un federal reserve.

 
It would be lower. Maybe by half. But Trump would have been such a wild card it's impossible to say for certain.

All 50 GOP senators voted against the Rescue Plan. 

17 GOP governors rejected Covid stimulus. So it was in the party's bloodstream.

GOP congressional members have identified inflation as a major issue for well over a year. So there wouldn't have been Biden's denial. They would have acted sooner.

You wouldn't have had an idiot former Fed chief like Yellen as Treasury Secretary shouting "Go Big!" to Congress from the rooftops.

Trump may have made life so bad for Powell that Powell may have gotten so beat down that he acted sooner to raise rates and end QE.

You would have had substantial movement on domestic oil and gas drilling. Potential lag effect on actual prices but still impactful.

For some reason, Trump had succeeded in deterring Putin from invading Ukraine. Maybe he would have appeased Putin by pulling a Neville Chamberlain and simply giving him the Donbas. Who knows. But I doubt the economic sanctions would have been nearly as drastic.
I think any political will was in opposing the Dems (just as they do). I don’t see either party seriously willing to show restraint in spending especially when elections are coming up and we are / coming out of a global pandemic. Where and how the money is spent perhaps but all these guys have found out that shelling out cash is popular…until this confluence of events (supply chain, pandemic, war, money pumped into the bloodstream) exacerbated inflation to these crazy levels. 

Not identifying inflation as a big issue publicly is a political calculation IMO - akin to accepting things are negative - something no politician ever does. 

By half seems very generous but to your original points who knows and it will cost the Dems harshly.

 
sho nuff said:
Pretty close...within any margin of error yeah.

Its almost as if it really didn't happen overnight and took years to build up.  Its almost as if on here and another board there were not warnings for years of hyperinflation and how we just kept kicking the can down the road.

Biden pushed us over the edge with the stimulus and yeah the policy to try and reign in our reliance on oil.  But to act as if its all him seems illogical
Biden has done nothing to reduce our reliance on oil. He is making Russia rich with his attack on domestic oil production. Much like Hillary and Obama have done when they signed over uranium one to Russia. His climate change zealotry is known as communist change in enlightened circles. It has been for a long time. https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-a-back-door-to-communism-and-the-united-nations-admits-it/

 
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I think any political will was in opposing the Dems (just as they do). I don’t see either party seriously willing to show restraint in spending especially when elections are coming up and we are / coming out of a global pandemic. Where and how the money is spent perhaps but all these guys have found out that shelling out cash is popular…until this confluence of events (supply chain, pandemic, war, money pumped into the bloodstream) exacerbated inflation to these crazy levels. 

Not identifying inflation as a big issue publicly is a political calculation IMO - akin to accepting things are negative - something no politician ever does. 

By half seems very generous but to your original points who knows and it will cost the Dems harshly.
The Blue Team's best scenario is a hard landing recession as soon as possible. Deep clean the system and start growing again by late 2023.

Otherwise it's persistent stagflation, and the midterms will be just be setting the stage for another Red Wave presidential/Congress landslide in 2024.

 
The Blue Team's best scenario is a hard landing recession as soon as possible. Deep clean the system and start growing again by late 2023.

Otherwise it's persistent stagflation, and the midterms will be just be setting the stage for another Red Wave presidential/Congress landslide in 2024.
So the great reset ala Klaus Schaub. Then build back better a Davos catch phrase. Agenda 2030 rolls forward.

 
So the great reset ala Klaus Schaub. Then build back better a Davos catch phrase. Agenda 2030 rolls forward.
No. What I suggested is absolutely nothing at all like Davos and the great reset. Just a standard business cycle whose boom period has been artificially inflated and prolonged and therefore the bust will be proportional.

 
No. What I suggested is absolutely nothing at all like Davos and the great reset. Just a standard business cycle whose boom period has been artificially inflated and prolonged and therefore the bust will be proportional.
Seen a lot of cycles. They’re late. It was supposed to be Agenda 21. While we did get a lot of fireworks leading up to 2021 it wasn’t the full culmination of the plan. I will say this I thought 2000-2002 was bad then we got 2008. I thought 2008 was bad then we got the lockdowns. I thought 2020 was bad. Never thought I would see checkpoints at state lines but wow. What is this cycle going to bring?

 
While I generally agree with this, I'm not so sure about an actual recession. Yes. At this point it is definitely inevitable.

But much of the stimulus and loose monetary policy fed the economy in the form of liquidity and/or wealth effects from the stock market. If both a) stimulus was cut off end of 2020 and b) Fed tightened sooner, then the stock market would not gotten nearly as out of control and lack of liquidity would mean consumer spending would have dried up sooner.

Not saying the GOP was smart enough to pull that off...but a guy with Larry Summers' insights guiding policy and an administration that listened could have avoided most of the current mess.
We need to remember that just about every single economist worth their salt (conservative and liberal alike) were predicting recession between 2022 and 2024 JUST from the printing of money in 2020 and the tax break bill in 2018.  At that point it was to be relatively moderate, but noticeable.  

 
This is a fair analysis. But a question I have for you is with the Cares Act long behind us at this point and we haven’t seen much of an increase in labor participation rates after it wouldn’t it also be fair to say that the cares act didn’t really affect much on that front. Yes it pumped money into the economy but I’m not sure at this point it had a significant impact on whether people came back to work or not, as they really aren’t back yet.  So the wage pressures would have been there regardless.  


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Maybe, maybe not.  The child tax prepayments ended in December 2021 so we're only 5 months removed from free money.  Since the end of those payments, the participation rate has been trending upward.  It's all speculation.  

 
nobody knows

I think Trump would have tried to make deals to keep Putin out of Ukraine

I think Trump would have made deals with US oil to get more production and keep it in the USA

Biden is anti-energy and seems to have no deal making abilities ... for a 50 years experienced President, he seems to be blindsided every week with new obstacles. That wasn't supposed to happen, that wasn't what he was sold as 

I can't give a %  

 
nobody knows

I think Trump would have tried to make deals to keep Putin out of Ukraine

I think Trump would have made deals with US oil to get more production and keep it in the USA

Biden is anti-energy and seems to have no deal making abilities ... for a 50 years experienced President, he seems to be blindsided every week with new obstacles. That wasn't supposed to happen, that wasn't what he was sold as 

I can't give a %  
They sure like to announce that Biden is going to talk to Saudi Arabia about more production.   This isn’t taking place until next month.

Come on Man.

 
I think it would be lower - this is assuming there wouldn’t have been a 2nd stimulus.  It’s a fair question.  The optics from the left just frustrate too many, just gives the appearance that they don’t care and it’s out of their hands. Maybe it is.

 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Maybe, maybe not.  The child tax prepayments ended in December 2021 so we're only 5 months removed from free money.  Since the end of those payments, the participation rate has been trending upward.  It's all speculation.  
It is certainly all speculation, but I have a very hard time believing the child credit free money had any real effect on peoples employment status.  

 
It is certainly all speculation, but I have a very hard time believing the child credit free money had any real effect on peoples employment status.  


Not solely from those payments, but when you add those payments to other benefits like SNAP, TANF, CHIP, etc. then staying home can be pretty lucrative.  Once you go take a 40 hour a week job working, your benefits either get reduced or eliminated altogether especially with the wage growth that has occurred in the past 12 months.    

 

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