I'm thinking he does. He'll be the bellcow there. Sproles is nice but change of pace/3rd down only. Spiller is the more dynamic talent, but part of his value is dependent upon where he is drafted, if he goes to a middling, committee type situation and Matthews goes to the Chargers, I'm taking Matthews first.
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If Ryan Matthews goes to SD (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ack88
- Start date
ScottyFargo
Footballguy
SD has changed to being a passing focus w/ Rivers. SD wouldn't really mean he'd be getting a lot of feature work when the offense isn't geared to run through him, imo.
lynx4ben
Footballguy
Spiller to Seattle and Mathews to the chargers would make the 1.1 a very interesting debate. Throw in Dez to Denver if you want to further complicate things
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Blackjacks
Footballguy
let's say spiller to houston, matthews to sd and best to seattle (throw in dez to denver)
where'd u rank them?
where'd u rank them?
A
awesomeness
Guest
Mathews is the #1 pick wherever he ends up imo.
Garts
Footballguy
agreed....Houston would be great too for Mathews.
I really think most want SD but that will be a lousy landing spot unless TD heavy league. I see about 3.5 yds per carry behind that OL and Sproles getting more plays for sure as the reliable guy
xenith
Footballguy
I couldn't quite go that far, ya never know if some random team will grab him as BAA and put him in a time share. Say Philly, SanFran, probably won't happen, just sayin...But I agree in principle w/ your point, 100%. San Diego, Houston, Seattle, no Q in my mind he's the top rookie, by a wide margin!If Chargers or Texans in particular draft him, I'm very interested.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
What if he goes in the second round to Detriot? If SD passes on him, he could fall that far.
Would be a fantastic situation if Kevin Smith isnt healthy. Thats going to be an above average offense this year.
A
awesomeness
Guest
He's most definitely the #1 pick if he ends up in Detroit. Stafford/Megatron to keep the D honest, improving O-line, little competition = good spot to land.
noleinfrance
Footballguy
Matthews
Dez
Spiller
Best
As the owner of this years 1.3 and 1.4 in our rookie draft, I am feeling pretty good about the prospects of owning any two of these four, assuming nothing totally bizare in terms of landng spots.
Dez
Spiller
Best
As the owner of this years 1.3 and 1.4 in our rookie draft, I am feeling pretty good about the prospects of owning any two of these four, assuming nothing totally bizare in terms of landng spots.
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nightmare
Footballguy
When LT went to San Diego they were a lousy team. People were arguing
(myself included) that M Bennett with the Vikes was the better pick.
Matthews is the 1.1, doesn't matter were he goes. You could make a case
for D Bryant(if you have a RB1 already) or Spiller in PPR. Guys were
hesitant about F Gore because K Barlow was also there-don't make
that mistake. Edited to add -also the injury concern.
In a rookie dynasty draft C Williams, C Benson R Brown, and JJ Stinkin
Arrington went in the first 4 picks. Gore went some where in the 2ND after
QB's Smith, Rodgers, WR's Clayton, Williams, Williamson, Brown, And White
(myself included) that M Bennett with the Vikes was the better pick.
Matthews is the 1.1, doesn't matter were he goes. You could make a case
for D Bryant(if you have a RB1 already) or Spiller in PPR. Guys were
hesitant about F Gore because K Barlow was also there-don't make
that mistake. Edited to add -also the injury concern.
In a rookie dynasty draft C Williams, C Benson R Brown, and JJ Stinkin
Arrington went in the first 4 picks. Gore went some where in the 2ND after
QB's Smith, Rodgers, WR's Clayton, Williams, Williamson, Brown, And White
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FUBAR
Footballguy
although I doubt he'll be a Lion and KSmith will have a role once healthy, that would not be a reason to drop him in your rankings.FWIW, I truly believe you're better off in the long run having your list pre-draft and at most making minor adjustments based on situation - or none at all. There have been too many examples like LT, Deuce, Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson, etc. dropping because of "bad team" or "guy in front of him", but that short term thinking keeps you at the bottom of the pile in dynasty. Granted, it took DWill some time before he was worth the pick but he was eventually worth it. Mathews is either #1 right now or he isn't and won't be. IMO it's a coin flip in most leagues vs. Dez, but that's because I'm even bigger on Dez than many are - his bust potential is high though, so the safe bet is Mathews no matter where they all go.
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kremenull
Footballguy
This scenario would make it a clear-cut choice, IMO.......Spiller without hesitation!
az_prof
Footballguy
I wouldn't take Dez over any of these RBs. Not sold on him at all. As far as Matthew being the #1 I think it might also depend on your scoring reqs. In PPR Spiller and Best could be better.
Garts
Footballguy
Don't know what to think about Spiller. If he goe to a place and it allows him to stay out of a foggy RBBC....he might be hard to pass at #1...especially in a ppr dynasty league...his highlight tape is pretty eye catching.
OTOH, Mathews looks like a bellcow and a possible 15 TD guy who will be a great #1 RB in my line-up for 5 years.
Hmmm...can't wait until Thursday!
OTOH, Mathews looks like a bellcow and a possible 15 TD guy who will be a great #1 RB in my line-up for 5 years.
Hmmm...can't wait until Thursday!
Logically, I see Matthews being the easy #1 pick in rookie drafts (league scoring not being considered). Matthews seems the most NFL ready as an "every down back" as much I hate using that term. With a guy like Spiller, his value is going to depend on how a team uses him and how versatile the offense is. I feel as though Matthews is going to get his carries regardless of where he winds up with a chance to be the immediate starter.
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
I don't think SD is drafting Matthews. There's a better chance they go with someone like Gerhart, Dixon, or Tate.
So what happens if one of those 3 RB's are drafted? Do their values skyrocket?
AJ Smith has an interesting draft philosophy - he likes to draft the RB's late and almost all his 1st rds have been on the defensive side- he's never drafted one in the 1st or 2nd rd. Look at Sproles/Michael Turner.
So what happens if one of those 3 RB's are drafted? Do their values skyrocket?
AJ Smith has an interesting draft philosophy - he likes to draft the RB's late and almost all his 1st rds have been on the defensive side- he's never drafted one in the 1st or 2nd rd. Look at Sproles/Michael Turner.
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Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Finally, a guy who thinks similiar to myself. I seriously feel like I just came out of a cave or something, all this talk about Matthews is #1 and it's a no brainer talk is scary, when did this talk happen, it feels like I just came outta the twilight zone.I think in PPR that Dez is #1, this from a guy who doesn't play PPR leagues. I have no horse in the PPR leagues so I really don't care.In the Non PPR leagues which is what I play I really don't see a debate about who #1 should be, it's CJ Spiller.Scenarios - CJ to SD, Matthews to Seattle = Spiller, not closeCJ to Seattle, Matthews to San Diego = Spiller, not closeCJ to SD, Matthews to SF = Spiller, not closeNow a scenario like Spiller to SF and Matthews to SD would be interesting and would actually spark an internal debate. I do consider Gore a top 5 back. If Spiller went to a team where more than likely Gore would get 60%+ of the carries then it would be hard to have confidence in a Spiller choice, you can't have less than half the carries and like that in fantasy no matter what the guy does with those touches it's just not enough touches. I would have to weigh if I want the instant gratification of Matthews or wait 2 years to have the superior production for the next 6-7 years after that, it is a tough call if this is the scenario.kremenull said:
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
In non-ppr it's even more clearcut.....Mathews.Spillers forte(no pun) is catching the ball, returning kicks, and running to the outside. In non-ppr, only one of those really counts(i know yardage....but you know what I mean).Mathews will get the ball at the goalline more often....can run between the tackles much better....and will have more carries than Spiller.20 more pounds and runs with power vs losing .15 in a 40 yard dash.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I see your points and I think Spiller gets way less credit for his inside runs than he should. Spiller is an elite talent and the draft shows, critical analysis gets way overblown to find the smallest of flaws, to me it's nitpicking to a point that doesn't show the true picture. I'm just not onboard with going with the way less talented back, I see this as a slightly smaller LT/Michael Bennett situation.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
We can agree to disagree.here is espn insider(hope it's okay to post) info on Spiller running inside- They rate him a 3 which is average.Inside Runner 3 Lacks the leg drive necessary to push the pile in short-yardage situations. Not a downhill runner and can get caught dancing in the hole but has excellent balance and does a good job of sifting through traffic when defenders fail to wrap him up. Explodes upfield when gets a seam and can hit the second level going full speed. They have Mathews as a 1 in inside running.
Just saw a mock (NFLdraftblitz- free content) that has Spiller going to the Giants. If that happens, and Matthews goes to San Diego, I just don't see how you take Spiller. Don't get me wrong, I think Spiller has more talent, but if he goes to the Giants and has to split w/ Jacobs and Bradshaw he's going to lack opportunity to play nearly as frequently as Matthews.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Spiller's going to bust.
I could probably justify taking Bradford in my league at 1.01. Last year 22 of the top 25 players were QB's.
0.1 ppyard passing and 6pt per td.
I could probably justify taking Bradford in my league at 1.01. Last year 22 of the top 25 players were QB's.
0.1 ppyard passing and 6pt per td.
Warpig
Footballguy
I really don't see how Bryant can be a 1.01 pick if he goes to Denver. McD has shown the inability to deal with players that may need kid gloves. Yes Bryant is talented and possibly the best game breaker in this draft class, but if he were to go to Denver I'd really have to think twice about taking him with the 1.01. McD would ruin that kid.
If Bryant went to Denver, and say Mathews went to Houston and Spiller went to SD...then I'd certainly have to pick either Spiller or Mathews. And I think I'd be leaning towards Spiller simply because he brings more to the table than Mathews does. In the scenario I just mentioned it would be:
1. Spiller
2. Mathews
3. Bryant
If Bryant went to Denver, and say Mathews went to Houston and Spiller went to SD...then I'd certainly have to pick either Spiller or Mathews. And I think I'd be leaning towards Spiller simply because he brings more to the table than Mathews does. In the scenario I just mentioned it would be:
1. Spiller
2. Mathews
3. Bryant
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Credentials? Crystal ball? Gotta love these posts.Donsmith753 said:
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Sorry I should rephrase that I went a bit too far. Spiller isn't worth a top 20 NFL pick, top 5 FF draft pick. Just my opinion.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
that's short-sighted. If you think Spiller has more talent, you take him. Jacobs and Bradshaw showed absolutely nothing last year to make anyone think their jobs are safe. The NYG starting RB in 2011 probably isn't on the roster right now.Ack88 said:
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AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
EBF
Footballguy
I think he'll go 1.01 in most leagues now no matter where Dez gets drafted and I don't think it will be a bad pick. He's going to be a solid Mendenhall type of producer when healthy. Other guys might have better careers, but he's the top redraft rookie and the safest bet to hold top 20 value a year from now in dynasty startups.
duece2626
Footballguy
Why?
dmac37
Footballguy
He is the top 1 or 2 RB's and in a GREAT situation, not to often does a top RB go to a situation like SD.
duece2626
Footballguy
Matthews has been mocked since day 1 going to either Houston or SD.
dmac37
Footballguy
Mock and reality are completely different, I think the value really starts to soar. I have no dog in this fight JMHO.
EBF
Footballguy
Both. He's the slam dunk 1.01 in non-PPR.
dmac37
Footballguy
The value of 1.2 now also goes WAY up!
Mark Davis
Footballguy
For me it's now:
1.01 R Mathews
1.02 D Bryant
1.03 CJ Spiller
1.01 R Mathews
1.02 D Bryant
1.03 CJ Spiller
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
I actually think the 1.03 has increased in value. Spiller is in a good spot, and so is the pair of WRs. If either Best or Dwyer go to a good spot, the 1.03 could go thru the roof
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
Best in Detroit makes the 1.03 very interestingJeff Tefertiller said:
Garts
Footballguy
MathewsBryant for surethen Spiller or Best hmmmmthen the bangers Gerhart and Dwyer...one in Seattle or Houston
