If the Colts draft a WR (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

The Colts have only drafted 4 WRs since they added Reggie Wayne in 2001:

2007 Anthony Gonzalez (rd 1, pick 32)

2007 Roy Hall (rd 5, pick 169)

2008 Pierre Garcon (rd 6, pick 205)

2009 Austin Collie (rd 4, pick 127)

Even though only 1 of them was an early pick in the NFL draft, 3 of the 4 have been valuable fantasy commodities at some point. Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez have all gone in the first 5 or 6 rounds of redraft leagues (either this year, last year, or the year before). Because Peyton Manning is the quarterback, so someone has to get those numbers.

So if the Colts draft a WR this year, where do you take him in your dynasty rookie draft? Every WR they add is a lottery ticket, and those tickets have had an astoundingly good success rate (especially if you've been willing to sell high, rather than hang on while the value drops again). End of round 1? End of round 2? Later? Earlier?

 

[B Maverick]

IMO, it depends on where Indy takes him. If its a late round guy, I may look at the 3rd rd since he will compete with these guys for time. But as you said, he will have value in that offense.

If they take a WR high enough, he may jump up to 1st or 2nd rd since he may be looked at as the true #2 with future #1 when Reggie is done. A lot like when they added Wayne to Harrison.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

IMO, it depends on where Indy takes him. If its a late round guy, I may look at the 3rd rd since he will compete with these guys for time. But as you said, he will have value in that offense.If they take a WR high enough, he may jump up to 1st or 2nd rd since he may be looked at as the true #2 with future #1 when Reggie is done. A lot like when they added Wayne to Harrison.

Of course with Manning being 35 years old, and Wayne "only" 32 - that gravy train may dry up pretty quickly right when it's just getting started.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I don't see it. They have 3 starters in place who could easily be the starters for the rest of Manning's effective years. Also Gonzalez has been a bust for those that drafted him, so the Colts going WR early doesn't guarantee value.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Even though it's not likely, I wouldn't be surprised to see them select Torrey Smith at #22. His value would jump several spots in most dynasty dratfs. I hope they select an OL at #22.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

According to the Indianapolis Star, the Colts have shown "steady interest" in Troy WR/KR Jerrel Jernigan throughout the draft process.We don't know of any workouts or visits the Colts had with Jernigan, but Indianapolis doesn't show its hand much before the draft. A slot prospect with 4.4 speed, Jernigan is a second- to third-round prospect with homerun ability in the return game. Some teams also project him as a "Z", outside receiver.

 

[loose circuits]

I liked Blair White before last years draft and thought he was a steal when he went undrafted. I think he'll fight off any rookie taken on the 3rd day. If they take someone in 1st 2 days, it will be interesting...

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Even though it's not likely, I wouldn't be surprised to see them select Torrey Smith at #22. His value would jump several spots in most dynasty dratfs. I hope they select an OL at #22.

where should a guy like torrey smith go in rookie drafts if he goes to the colts?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Even though it's not likely, I wouldn't be surprised to see them select Torrey Smith at #22. His value would jump several spots in most dynasty dratfs. I hope they select an OL at #22.

where should a guy like torrey smith go in rookie drafts if he goes to the colts?

If a speedster like Smith went to Indy in Round 1 (which I personally think is a longshot), I could see him going as high as pick 1.6 or 1.7 (as the third WR off the board) in rookie drafts.

 

[loose circuits]

Didn't realize Garcon, Wayne, and Gonzo are all in contract years. Could be a time to rebuild that receiving core for Indy.

 

[Sweet Love]

IMO, it depends on where Indy takes him. If its a late round guy, I may look at the 3rd rd since he will compete with these guys for time. But as you said, he will have value in that offense.If they take a WR high enough, he may jump up to 1st or 2nd rd since he may be looked at as the true #2 with future #1 when Reggie is done. A lot like when they added Wayne to Harrison.

Of course with Manning being 35 years old, and Wayne "only" 32 - that gravy train may dry up pretty quickly right when it's just getting started.

That's my thought too. I just don't see how anyone can crack that lineup quick enough to take advantage of Manning. No idea how long Manning plans on playing, but even if it is another 4 seasons, you are not going to get the best of him (where he is automatic), plus no one has mentioned the TEs in Clark and Tamme. There aren't enough balls to go around as it is today, and the only reason they have what they have today, is due to Manning.

 

[loose circuits]

Didn't realize Garcon, Wayne, and Gonzo are all in contract years. Could be a time to rebuild that receiving core for Indy.

with all 3 of these guys in contract years, is Blair White a 'buy low' with some sneaky potential for 2012?

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Didn't realize Garcon, Wayne, and Gonzo are all in contract years. Could be a time to rebuild that receiving core for Indy.

with all 3 of these guys in contract years, is Blair White a 'buy low' with some sneaky potential for 2012?

I think so. This kid showed some flashes last year, and I think he is a must own in all formats for 2011.

 

[Shutout]

Not that it matters now, but had a NAME WR been taken, I am sure he would have risen faster than Roy Helu in FF drafts and it would likely have been a mistake.

By the time that player really got going, Manning would have been gone and its very very clear to me that once Manning goes, this team will be completely and totally revamped. Which brings me to my REAL point in all this.

The "guys to buy" or the guys that will be "sneaky" adds for the Colts for now and the rest of the Manning era are the same names you already know. I know, its not slick and exciting but thats the way it is. Manning is a HOF, very rare, iconic NFL player who plays for an organization that is very steady and disciplined in the way they run their organization.

Put those types of things together and what you end up with is an organization that knows that its not going to make sense to use Manning's last years on other receivers' developing years. They know that their best chance to win a SuperBowl or two is right here, right now, and its over once Manning hangs them up.

So, they are going to go with what they know will make Manning happiest (and most effective) and that is give him the guys he loves in Wayne and Clark that he trusts. Give him the guys that have shown ability and know the system in Garcon, Collie, and Tamme and White and Addai. Support him with building up that offensive line to keep him safe (we have already seen heavy emphasis in that in the draft). And, in general, don't derail this train until it naturally eases into the station.

All the pieces are in place. Clark is under contract. Wayne knows at his age, the best reasonable money and chance to win combo is to stay. Collie is good to go as are many of the others. Saturday will stay as long as he can and can help. He won't stay one minute after manning..probably will go before. The only real "x" factor I see is Garcon. He may believe he can test the market and cash in...and he might. But I think the colts will be willing to live with that if the money is too much. They may explore some of the guys they have on staff (and that might cause them to hang on toGonzo a bit longer than they want to). But at the end of the day, this reminds me alot of the 90's Bulls. Just keep it rolling and don't mess with it. I jsut hope they don't do likethe Bulls and dismantle it too early.