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If You Could Draft Trevor Lawrence Today - 1st Round Pick? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
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Jayrok
Footballguy
So then if you were an NFL GM and had the ability to draft him (reserve him) today for a first round pick, you would pass because you aren't sure yet... not enough data. Fair enough and it's your call. I think that your job would be in great jeopardy when your owner sees how Lawrence develops into an NFL star. Let alone the fan base calling for your head for not taking a chance on the guy... and for what, one first round pick? Good luck in future NFL management decisions.
I know better than to get all giddy over a game, a season, that's what know nothings and rookies do. You might freak out over a freshman, I know better.
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Peter Lemonjello
Footballguy
I had the pleasure of watching him all through high school (same school that produced Ronnie Brown). He is obviously an unbelievable talent and that was apparent starting as a high school freshman. His poise and skills are off the chart. I would be shocked if he's not one of the best to ever play the position when it's all said and done.
Jayrok
Footballguy
You remind me of the guy on here who said Jadeveon Clowney was way over-hyped and elevated his draft stock based on the one tackle he made against Michigan in the bowl game. That he'd be an NFL bust, etc.
My point is that you said you'll pass on taking a chance on the guy. And I'm saying that you'd be making a mistake for not wagering a first round pick just to reserve the right to have him. If you're right, you potentially wasted a first round pick. If you're wrong, you may be fired for passing on an opportunity because you wanted to "wait and see how he panned out."
If you think people are giddy over one game or one season, then you're missing the boat there as well. The information is out there. It isn't just one game or one season.
Again, you aren't wagering a first round pick on results of one game or one season. You're taking a chance (the one chance you have, right now) on the potential of a transcendent talent at the most important position in the game. He didn't just appear out of nowhere. Coaches knew what he can do and what he has done his whole football life. Causing other 4 and 5 star QBs to transfer, for instance.
You are talking about sitting back and waiting to see how he pans out in college. That sounds more like a "know nothing" to me because you've never heard of him or seen him play before Monday night. Some of us have seen him before Monday night. Watch and see how many NFL teams try to get that first overall pick in 2021. Barring serious injury of course.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Again, look at the original posted question. You said you would pass.
You're comparing seniors to a freshman who didn't start until the 4th or 5th game in.
First off I've known about the kid since HS and have seen him play numerous times at Clemson. And who said anything about waiting until his college career is over, which could be next season. That's right, not even a junior season, as he just trains and waits.
Seen TONS of young guys who couldn't miss....miss. I can't get too carried away with anyone over high school or...ONE...season where his stats really weren't...OH MY GOD. others have had far better seasons.
What do we really know about this kid, who is he? We know he has a girlfriend, but what else?
Slow your roll my man, give things a little time, ok?
We were given options here right? What I MUST agree with you, really?
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I;m showing you how a guy with a far better season was just a third round pick.
Check out what Jameis Winston did his first college season, totally dwarfs what we saw from Lawrence. Now where is Winston?
Cam Newton in college, a wow~~~~
Johnny Manziel at the NCAA level, amazing.
See how it can go?
Kid appears to have a world of potential, let's see what happens by this time next season.
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Jayrok
Footballguy
That's the beauty of this guy. He doesn't put up stats like Big12 QBs who just throw all over the field. Could he? Absolutely. But this team has lots of talent to spread the ball around (very strong running game). He may not win a Heisman for that reason as well. But who cares? We're talking about the NFL QB position and potential. Not the success he could have in college. And the question is would you give up a first round pick for him right now. I would and gladly. Like you said about "can't miss" guys... there's also can't miss first round picks that don't pan out. I'd give up that pick for Trevor.
Others having far better seasons is irrelevant to this discussion because it isn't about great seasons in college with today's college offenses spreading the field and throwing it around. It's about investing in a guy that looks like the real deal right now.
He'd go #1 overall this April if Freshman were allowed to go one and done like in basketball. If you don't think so then, well, maybe this conversation should end here.
Jayrok
Footballguy
oof. Again, we aren't talking about seasons in college and success in college.
Cam and Jameis are almost the same guys. Cam is the better athlete but both wear their emotions on their sleaves. When they get down on themselves, they pout and it negatively affects the team. And I'm a Carolina fan and love Cam.
Winston is still having trouble reading defenses. That's something that Trevor excels at. Ask any of his coaches. And I don't think we'll read about Trevor stealing crabs from a supermarket or a laptop from the dorms (Cam in college).
Johnny Manziel? A rich kid who grew up with everyone telling him how great he is and it going to his head. Likes to party, has issues with substance. If you think Trevor is like this then you don't know him or where he came from.
Vince Young was great in college. As was JeMarcus Russell. Do you want to compare them to him too? Ryan Leaf?
Why not Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning? Or DeShaun Watson? In terms of having a level head and being fearless in the pocket, he does compare to Watson. Watson had his own comments about Trevor this week.
Yes, I agree with you that it can go sideways with these guys. I believe that Trevor, based on what I know about his leadership and poise (both on and off the field), will begin to be compared more with Luck and Manning than those other guys going forward. I am certain of it.
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What are you basing everything on, that's right how he looks in the college game so cool this silly ...it's irrelevant, ok? Actually it is everything.
Others have been more impressive early on so don't act like that doesn't matter, hell yes it does.
You are coming off as a fanboy. I don't play that, I give things time experience has taught me that.
Dude, there are a whole gang of posters here who wouldn't take him now check the poll.
Dude, so the kid could have just skipped college and waited until eligible for the draft? Stop it, hell yes his NCAA days matter. withoutthem we aren't talking about him now......right?
Dude, you don't know this kid, you don't know how he will handle some fame on a higher level, so stop with the silliness.
Ok my last say on this...
As of right now the kids appears to be the real deal/total package now we need to see how he handles some success. No rush.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Posters here aren't NFL GMs. Maybe we should poll them. Sure, I'm a fan. I guess time will tell. Again, he doesn't have to be the greatest NFL QB in NFL history. No one is saying that. If he fell somewhere between the top guys today and the middle of the pack QBs today in the NFL, I'm saying it would be worth a first round pick as an investment in that potential. I believe it will be the former not the latter. Let's not act like he won't continue to develop.
Others have been more impressive early on. Of course, yes. We'll have to wait and see. But that wasn't the poll's question. You answered how you'd do and and so have I.
Peter Lemonjello
Footballguy
Why did you select those three guys, with well known character issues, as comparisons and examples of how players may not live up to expectations?
Jayrok
Footballguy
Not saying skip college. Look at NFL teams grabbing up all these young QB whisperer type coaches to be HC. All hoping/wishing they have the next McVay or S. Peyton or Nagy. It's the trend. QB is the most important position on the field and they want one that will be that guy for the next 16 years. I'm certain that these same NFL GMs would jump at the chance to grab what could be a no brainer first pick. All for just one first round pick.
Dude (as you seem to like to call me), this is the point here with this poll question. You think we all should wait and see because there is no rush. In this context, there is a rush because there are many GMs that would say yes to the poll. You will miss out. Someone else won't. You're good with that and that's fine.
Do you really think we have seen all we need to know from a freshman in college, really? How close are you to being who you were then, yep, me either.
Guy has a girlfriend, she is caught cheating on him, he gets pissed, she ends up...............
Things can happen that fast and we never saw it coming.
People freaking out over the kid because he killed Alabama. I simply don't play that, I need time.
Someone else got Joe Montana, Dan Marino, John Elway,Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, Steve Young, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, John Unitas, Otto Graham, all I got was Terry Bradshaw, that seemed to work out ok.
Jayrok
Footballguy
okay.
Peter Lemonjello
Footballguy
Yes, I think I have. As stated earlier, I've watched this guy throughout high school. I've seen him standing out in the cold at 7 AM opening car doors for K-2 grade drop off, I've seen him show up at kid's birthday party and play with them for an hour, I've seen him give a pregame talk and sign autographs for a 10U rec football team.
Will he continue to grow, mature and change? Of course, but he's not going to suddenly become someone other than who he's always been. He wasn't on SI covers prior to this week, but he's been a celebrity in Cartersville, GA for the past 4 years and he's as grounded as anyone I've ever met.
Jayrok
Footballguy
This is a good point and one that should be pointed out. I was a dreamer and had no idea about life or what I wanted out of it.
This guy already prepares, studies, practices and plays like a 5th year senior. Mature for his age, especially in terms of athletics. And these are not my observations. He's 6'6 215 (freshman skinny). When his draft day comes he'll be 6'6 230 or so and already has a better arm than most NFL QBs we see playing now (not my words).
Ron Dayne needed a nickname like...
Truck
Tank
Thunder
Smash
Bus
while at Wisconsin, the guy was a monster.
What happened?
Johnny Rodgers was a...WOW~~~~~ like Dayne a Heisman winner, why did he end up in the CFL?
Peter Warrick was incredible, then...........
Truck
Tank
Thunder
Smash
Bus
while at Wisconsin, the guy was a monster.
What happened?
Johnny Rodgers was a...WOW~~~~~ like Dayne a Heisman winner, why did he end up in the CFL?
Peter Warrick was incredible, then...........
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Derrick Florence ran a HS record 10.13, no HS kid in history had ever ran faster he was going to be the next great American sprinter. Off to Texas A&M, he never broke 10.20 and did nothing.
Carter Suggs ran the HS record 9.3 yards, numerous times, he was going to be the next great American sprinter. Off to Eastern Carolina. and....poof~~~
Trendarvis Friday ran an alien/outerwordly....10.00....in HS, that;s sci fi. he's going to be the next.......................the guy did nothing.
And it goes on and on and on...................
Just give things a little time, which really is great advice,
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Jayrok
Footballguy
You don't think a good GM will do his/her due diligence and check on the guy's off the field history before making a decision? How he conducts himself and the activities he supports? Talk with or look into those around him, coaches/teachers/community? Come on.
You are comparing checking into things as living around the guy like Peter? Big difference.
What we really need is some respect for what others with a ton of experience think about this. I used to jump into things also, then learned how things are really done.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Don't you see? Your comments do not change the fact that he guy has and is doing those off field things? Or are you calling Peter a liar?
Peter is telling us what he has seen. Liar???????????????
So if I want to see some more of this kid I can't because you wouldn't, come on guy, hahahaha~~
Jayrok
Footballguy
Finally, something we agree on. I'd be happy to default to said experts. The poll question was what would "we" do. And we responded. I'd take a shot on, what I consider to be, a transcendent talent at the most important position in the NFL. If I was wrong, I'd lose a first round pick (it didn't even say it had to be the #1 overall pick... could be late first round).
Let me ask you, is there anyone in the list of QBs you mentioned above (Montana, Favre, Bradshaw, etc,) you'd spend a first round pick on? I would.
Jayrok
Footballguy
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Jayrok
Footballguy
You've compared him to Ron Dayne, Derrick Florence, Carter Suggs, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel... Trendarvis Friday. Don't forget Willie Gault and Skeets Nehemiah.
I wouldn't compare him to any of those or any college QBs that have video game stats based on offenses in college today. If he played at OU or Texas Tech, maybe. He doesn't play in a system that just throws it all over the field the whole game. I'd compare him more to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, because I think he has the ability and QB IQ that those two have/had.
Andrew Luck at Stanford:
288/404 for 3517 yds. 37 TD, 10 INT.
Peyton Manning at Tennessee:
287/477 for 3819 yds. 36 TD, 11 INT.
Trevor Lawrence at Clemson:
259/397 for 3280 yds. 30 TD, 4 INT
The stats for Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are from their senior years. Their freshman years weren't as good or comparable. Lawrence didn't start until the 5th game this season, but he did have an extra game due to the playoffs.
But yes, of course, things may not pan out. I'm not foolish enough to not realize that. I'm only saying that I would take a chance on this guy right now. I believe he will only get better in terms of leadership and decision making required to be a successful QB. I think he has a great start already and will continue to grow into a fine NFL QB. And I still say that some fan base is going to be very happen in 2021.
I wouldn't compare him to any of those or any college QBs that have video game stats based on offenses in college today. If he played at OU or Texas Tech, maybe. He doesn't play in a system that just throws it all over the field the whole game. I'd compare him more to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, because I think he has the ability and QB IQ that those two have/had.
Andrew Luck at Stanford:
288/404 for 3517 yds. 37 TD, 10 INT.
Peyton Manning at Tennessee:
287/477 for 3819 yds. 36 TD, 11 INT.
Trevor Lawrence at Clemson:
259/397 for 3280 yds. 30 TD, 4 INT
The stats for Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are from their senior years. Their freshman years weren't as good or comparable. Lawrence didn't start until the 5th game this season, but he did have an extra game due to the playoffs.
But yes, of course, things may not pan out. I'm not foolish enough to not realize that. I'm only saying that I would take a chance on this guy right now. I believe he will only get better in terms of leadership and decision making required to be a successful QB. I think he has a great start already and will continue to grow into a fine NFL QB. And I still say that some fan base is going to be very happen in 2021.
Gault and Nehemiah don't fit, but I get ya know a couple track cats.
Bottom line...
There have been a TON of amazing QB's, we are seeing how many future HOFers right now? At least a half dozen teams with the best QB ever for that franchise. There is no such thing as.....OH MY GOD THIS KID IN A MUST HAVE RIGHT NOW.....hell no he's not. I totally doubt he'll ever be on a level with the very elite we have right now, no Russel Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Brady.
I can wait.
I listened to Move the Sticks Podcast after the game and DJ and Bucky both said after spending a few days watching TL and Justin Fields up close in 7 on 7 tourney's last year they thought Fields was better. Just putting that out as it's not crazy to think if Fields blows up in 2020 he could put some heat on TL for first QB in 2021. Obviously way to early to know.
Also I believe every team in the NFL would at least spend a late first round pick on TL right now. It's a simple risk/reward situation where reward craps all over risk of a late first. It's to me more of a question of how high of a first would a team go knowing they had to wait two years. We've had teams like the Jets go almost 40 years without a franchise QB. I'm a Steeler fan and went over 20 years for my franchise QB. Browns look like they their first one since they returned to the NFL. The entire Brady/NE run it' arguable that the best QB the Jets, Dolphins and Bills could muster was Chad Pennington, that's like 50 seasons between those 3 teams. Two years is really not a lot in the grand scheme of things.
Also I believe every team in the NFL would at least spend a late first round pick on TL right now. It's a simple risk/reward situation where reward craps all over risk of a late first. It's to me more of a question of how high of a first would a team go knowing they had to wait two years. We've had teams like the Jets go almost 40 years without a franchise QB. I'm a Steeler fan and went over 20 years for my franchise QB. Browns look like they their first one since they returned to the NFL. The entire Brady/NE run it' arguable that the best QB the Jets, Dolphins and Bills could muster was Chad Pennington, that's like 50 seasons between those 3 teams. Two years is really not a lot in the grand scheme of things.
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Jayrok
Footballguy
Fair enough. I didn't use all caps to shout that I must have him right now. I answered the poll and said yes, absolutely I'd give up a first round pick for him. Interesting comment on the "half dozen teams with the best QB ever for that franchise", and that's what I think Trevor will be for some franchise. There are lots of franchises right now that haven't had a good QB for a very long time. If he even fit into the good QB that will lead a team for a decade category, I'd think he'd be worth a first round pick right now. Anything near Rodgers, Brees and Brady... well that's gravy that I'd also take a chance on. It's awful early, for sure, but I think he'll be mentioned among the elite at some point. Just my opinion.
I appreciate the conversation.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Fields is an amazing talent and I believe he'll show that at OSU when he gets the chance. He's a better QB in terms of athleticism. I think TL is and will be a better pocket passer and game manager as he develops. Fields will have a good chance to prove himself on very big stages. I think Trevor already has... at least so far.
The second paragraph is essentially my take as well. That he's worth the risk of a first round pick with or without the two years. I mentioned teams longing for a franchise QB in a previous post. It isn't easy to find that one guy. NE dominates the AFC East partly for that reason. The other teams just don't have that guy. Since Kelly left Buffalo and Marino left Miami. Can't remember that last really good QB the Jets had. Brady and NE own that division and it results in them having a first round bye in the playoffs every year.
A kid who has never thrown an NFL pass, faced an NFL offense will someday be among the NFL elite???
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Joe Montana
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
John Unitas
Otto Graham
Trevor Lawrence
Ok, that's it.
Jayrod, come on guy now you;re getting ridiculous.
You never know....he may get ejected from a game a refuse to leave the sidelines...then what? Hmmmmm..........hahahahahha
Teams where Trevor Lawrence could end up the best in franchise history.
Arizona Cards.....Warner was a Ram.
No...Rams,Seahawks, Niners.
Chicago Bears......while Sid Luckman is a HOFer, hmmmm?
No....Packers, Vikes, Lions.
Forget the NFL East,
Buc;s.....a very real possibility.
No....Saints, Panthers, Falcons.
Forget the AFC West
Forget the AFC East
No he's never going to surplant Otto Graham.
Bengals...hmmmm?
Ravens....????
No Steelers.
Colts...nope.
Here we go....yep, Texans, Jags and techinically the Titans, we'll shine Warren Moon and the Oilers.
Arizona Cards.....Warner was a Ram.
No...Rams,Seahawks, Niners.
Chicago Bears......while Sid Luckman is a HOFer, hmmmm?
No....Packers, Vikes, Lions.
Forget the NFL East,
Buc;s.....a very real possibility.
No....Saints, Panthers, Falcons.
Forget the AFC West
Forget the AFC East
No he's never going to surplant Otto Graham.
Bengals...hmmmm?
Ravens....????
No Steelers.
Colts...nope.
Here we go....yep, Texans, Jags and techinically the Titans, we'll shine Warren Moon and the Oilers.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Being a franchise QB and the best/greatest QB in a team's franchise history are two different things. You are a Steelers fan. Is Bradshaw or Ben the greatest QB in their history? I'd say Bradshaw but that doesn't mean that Roethlisberger isn't a franchise QB and has been since he's been there. I believe TL will be a franchise QB for some city and successfully lead them for over a decade.
I consider Ben elite in the QB group today. But he isn't the greatest QB in Steeler history.
I consider Ben elite in the QB group today. But he isn't the greatest QB in Steeler history.
Tau837
Footballguy
I agree that if NFL teams could draft rights to college players early, they would do so quite often. Not just at QB, but at all positions. Lawrence would certainly be one of them. I agree it becomes a question of how high a team would go with 2 years to wait, especially if he was going to play as Clemson's starter throughout those 2 years. (It would be an interesting corollary to imagine how much influence teams would have on that, and how much they might shut down their players from continuing to play.)
As for Lawrence being such a sure thing, I am more skeptical. He may or may not be as good as his proponents think. In the past 10 drafts, 30 QBs have been drafted in the first round:
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield
2018 1 3 Sam Darnold
2018 1 7 Josh Allen
2018 1 10 Josh Rosen
2018 1 32 Lamar Jackson
2017 1 2 Mitchell Trubisky
2017 1 10 Patrick Mahomes
2017 1 12 Deshaun Watson
2016 1 1 Jared Goff
2016 1 2 Carson Wentz
2016 1 26 Paxton Lynch
2015 1 1 Jameis Winston
2015 1 2 Marcus Mariota
2014 1 3 Blake Bortles
2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel
2014 1 32 Teddy Bridgewater
2013 1 16 EJ Manuel
2012 1 1 Andrew Luck
2012 1 2 Robert Griffin
2012 1 8 Ryan Tannehill
2012 1 22 Brandon Weeden
2011 1 1 Cam Newton
2011 1 8 Jake Locker
2011 1 10 Blaine Gabbert
2011 1 12 Christian Ponder
2010 1 1 Sam Bradford
2010 1 25 Tim Tebow
2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford
2009 1 5 Mark Sanchez
2009 1 17 Josh Freeman
At least half of those guys failed to live up to expectations. While the past 3 drafts look better, the jury is really still out on some of those QBs. And the teams who drafted these QBs had a lot more film to review on most of these guys than exists for Lawrence as of today. Now add to that normal draft bust risk the fact that Lawrence would be unavailable for 2 years, either playing, at risk for injury, or sitting out altogether, which is unprecedented.
Not saying teams wouldn't take the risk, just providing some perspective.
As for Lawrence being such a sure thing, I am more skeptical. He may or may not be as good as his proponents think. In the past 10 drafts, 30 QBs have been drafted in the first round:
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield
2018 1 3 Sam Darnold
2018 1 7 Josh Allen
2018 1 10 Josh Rosen
2018 1 32 Lamar Jackson
2017 1 2 Mitchell Trubisky
2017 1 10 Patrick Mahomes
2017 1 12 Deshaun Watson
2016 1 1 Jared Goff
2016 1 2 Carson Wentz
2016 1 26 Paxton Lynch
2015 1 1 Jameis Winston
2015 1 2 Marcus Mariota
2014 1 3 Blake Bortles
2014 1 22 Johnny Manziel
2014 1 32 Teddy Bridgewater
2013 1 16 EJ Manuel
2012 1 1 Andrew Luck
2012 1 2 Robert Griffin
2012 1 8 Ryan Tannehill
2012 1 22 Brandon Weeden
2011 1 1 Cam Newton
2011 1 8 Jake Locker
2011 1 10 Blaine Gabbert
2011 1 12 Christian Ponder
2010 1 1 Sam Bradford
2010 1 25 Tim Tebow
2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford
2009 1 5 Mark Sanchez
2009 1 17 Josh Freeman
At least half of those guys failed to live up to expectations. While the past 3 drafts look better, the jury is really still out on some of those QBs. And the teams who drafted these QBs had a lot more film to review on most of these guys than exists for Lawrence as of today. Now add to that normal draft bust risk the fact that Lawrence would be unavailable for 2 years, either playing, at risk for injury, or sitting out altogether, which is unprecedented.
Not saying teams wouldn't take the risk, just providing some perspective.
He will dominate in the NFL. Don't see him going Ryan Leaf nuts in the NFL. He appears to be level headed and motivated. He's accurate as a freshman and will hone his skills for at least 2 more seasons. He can make all the throws. Not sure of his current ability to read defenses but I believe he will have that mastered as well as anyone ever coming out of college. Teams will be lining up to give the world for that #1 pick but only 1 team will hit the jackpot. He would be the #1 pick this year if he was allowed to come out. He's as big a can't miss prospect as Peyton Manning.
elguapo07
Footballguy
Years ago Red Auerbach drafted a college player with the 6th overall pick yet that player opted to return to college and play his Sr year with the Celts knowing they might lose exclusive rights to him if they didn't sign him before the next draft. Said player led his team the next year to the Final Four. Just after the season ended the Celtics were able to sign said player. Worked out ok for the Celtics in the long run as the player was Larry Bird
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