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If you have a top 3 pick, who are you targetting on the 2/3 turn? (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Footballguy
This year reminds me of the Priest Holmes days when you had only a few stud running backs and everybody else. I'm sitting with the number one pick in a draft and I'm not so much worried about who to take in round 1, but who to target on the returning 2/3 hook. I think those picks are the most important for this strategy. To me, ideally Graham or Gronk slides in there. Probably a pipe dream. Failing that, I'm hoping Brady or Brees slides in there. Not likely. So now you are getting to the nitty gritty. You can't bag these two picks up. Going off ADP, here is what is left. Assuming you took Foster/Rice/McCoy with that first pick, who do you like in that 24-30 range as a tandem to go with your stud RB?

DeMarco Murray Wes Welker Darren McFadden Adrian Peterson Jamaal Charles Trent Richardson Mike Wallace Steven Jackson A.J. GreenVictor CruzHakeem NicksRoddy WhiteMJD (Assuming he hasn't reported)Fred JacksonJulio JonesFrank Gore Brandon MarshallSteve SmithDarren Sproles Ahmad Bradshaw
Personally I was surprised to see Adrian has slid this far and I think he's the choice here. I also like Sproles in the third if you go with a Welker or Roddy here. In flex leagues, I'd probably go the Adrian then Sproles off that list.

 
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This year reminds me of the Priest Holmes days when you had only a few stud running backs and everybody else. I'm sitting with the number one pick in a draft and I'm not so much worried about who to take in round 1, but who to target on the returning 2/3 hook. I think those picks are the most important for this strategy. To me, ideally Graham or Gronk slides in there. Probably a pipe dream. Failing that, I'm hoping Brady or Brees slides in there. Not likely. So now you are getting to the nitty gritty. You can't bag these two picks up. Going off ADP, here is what is left. Assuming you took Foster/Rice/McCoy with that first pick, who do you like in that 24-30 range as a tandem to go with your stud RB?

Code:
DeMarco Murray	Wes Welker	Darren McFadden	Adrian Peterson	Jamaal Charles	Trent Richardson	Mike Wallace	Steven Jackson	A.J. GreenVictor CruzHakeem NicksRoddy WhiteMJD (Assuming he hasn't reported)Fred JacksonJulio JonesFrank Gore Brandon MarshallSteve SmithDarren Sproles Ahmad Bradshaw
Personally I was surprised to see Adrian has slid this far and I think he's the choice here. I also like Sproles in the third if you go with a Welker or Roddy here. In flex leagues, I'd probably go the Adrian then Sproles off that list.
fyi every mock ive done, Brady, Brees, Stafford, Cam, Mcfadden, Graham, Gronk, and MJD were all gone by the 2/3 turn.
 
Where did you get your ADP? Draftguppies.com? I think it would be a rare draft where DMC is sitting there at the end of the second. FBG has his ADP at 8 and 9 for PPR and non-PPR respectively. I also don't see Murray sitting there that late.

If you have one of the first three picks and you are looking at the 2-3 turn in a 12 team league, that would be spots 22-27. If you like going RB-RB, and Peterson or Stephen Jackson are a good play, and hitting a receiver like AJ Green in the third would give a pretty good start to a team, IMO. I would be happy with that start.. or, since you have a top 3 back, you can afford to take a chance on Mathews and that gives you two stud RBs when he comes back.... assuming he stays healthy.

The beauty of drafting from the top three spots is that you can pretty much do whatever you want around the 2-3 turn and you should have a good start to a team.

 
These guys wont be there:

Gronk

Graham

Brady

Brees

DeMarco Murray

Darren McFadden

MJD

Everyone else is possible. I'll be shooting for Stafford or RB/RB. Not worth grabbing a WR cuz there are so many good ones IMO. 4th & 5th is where Im targeting WRs.

 
Where did you get your ADP? Draftguppies.com? I think it would be a rare draft where DMC is sitting there at the end of the second. FBG has his ADP at 8 and 9 for PPR and non-PPR respectively. I also don't see Murray sitting there that late.If you have one of the first three picks and you are looking at the 2-3 turn in a 12 team league, that would be spots 22-27. If you like going RB-RB, and Peterson or Stephen Jackson are a good play, and hitting a receiver like AJ Green in the third would give a pretty good start to a team, IMO. I would be happy with that start.. or, since you have a top 3 back, you can afford to take a chance on Mathews and that gives you two stud RBs when he comes back.... assuming he stays healthy. The beauty of drafting from the top three spots is that you can pretty much do whatever you want around the 2-3 turn and you should have a good start to a team.
ESPN. Sorry my ADP data wasn't up to your standards. Are you saying all of those players will be gone in the 1st 23 picks?
 
These guys wont be there:GronkGrahamBradyBreesDeMarco Murray Darren McFadden MJD Everyone else is possible. I'll be shooting for Stafford or RB/RB. Not worth grabbing a WR cuz there are so many good ones IMO. 4th & 5th is where Im targeting WRs.
Yeah, the VBD app had Calvin rated 18th overall which is poppycock. I'm hoping a back slides to me. I'm not so sure on MJD if he's still holding out. He might be there when I pick, and I'd probably leave him for somebody else. I'm really liking Sjax and Sproles. I think they represent good value there especially, as you said, with wideouts being so deep.
 
Where did you get your ADP? Draftguppies.com? I think it would be a rare draft where DMC is sitting there at the end of the second. FBG has his ADP at 8 and 9 for PPR and non-PPR respectively. I also don't see Murray sitting there that late.If you have one of the first three picks and you are looking at the 2-3 turn in a 12 team league, that would be spots 22-27. If you like going RB-RB, and Peterson or Stephen Jackson are a good play, and hitting a receiver like AJ Green in the third would give a pretty good start to a team, IMO. I would be happy with that start.. or, since you have a top 3 back, you can afford to take a chance on Mathews and that gives you two stud RBs when he comes back.... assuming he stays healthy. The beauty of drafting from the top three spots is that you can pretty much do whatever you want around the 2-3 turn and you should have a good start to a team.
ESPN. Sorry my ADP data wasn't up to your standards. Are you saying all of those players will be gone in the 1st 23 picks?
I just think you should be careful where you get your ADP data. ESPN is a free service and I think my grandmother has a team on there. She called and asked me why she couldn't find Dan Marino on the list. A little friendly humor doesn't hurt. Just trying to help. If you want to use ESPN ADP to plan your draft strategy, then that just makes drafting easier for me. However, since you posted here looking for suggestions, my first one would be to use FBG ADP or find another PAY site to get your info.Some of those players will be there, but I would say that in 99.9% of drafts, DMC and Murray will NOT be.ETA: I did draft from the 4 hole in one draft and MJD fell to me in the second. I took him at that point. I think the longer he holds out, the more he will fall. This draft was over a week ago, so it is feasible he is there even in the third now.
 
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i have the number 2 pick in a 12 team redraft in one league and am thinking about this too. we start 2 RBs, 1 QB, 3 WRs, 1 TE. No flex.

The guy with the 1 pick is going rodgers ;) leaving me foster. very happy about that. As far as rounds 2 and 3 go, I am going to take Stafford or Cam if there but I think they will be gone. Really thinking about taking the 2 top WR on the board. maybe a Fitz/Jennings/White and a Julio/AJ Green. Get a established stud to go with a young stud. Dont think I get another rb here....

 
These guys wont be there:GronkGrahamBradyBreesDeMarco Murray Darren McFadden MJD Everyone else is possible. I'll be shooting for Stafford or RB/RB. Not worth grabbing a WR cuz there are so many good ones IMO. 4th & 5th is where Im targeting WRs.
MJD did fall to me at #20 in a FBG players championship draft. I agree the rest will likely be gone. I don't agree that taking a WR is a bad idea. You are targeting WR/WR in the 4-5, but since you have a LATE 6th, 70-72, which leaves you a pretty low QB. Who do you target as your QB in your scenario? RG3?? Roethlisberger? ickIf you go WR-RB or RB-WR at the 2-3, you have more flexibility at the 4-5. JMO
 
I've been thinking about the same thing...I pick #3 in a 12 team redraft (.5 ppr & 4pts for a passing TD).

I love that I'll get one of the Big 3 RBs, but then don't know what direction to go in rounds 2 & 3. I really think you have to go best available players - it would be ridiculous of Brees or Brady fell there...and who knows if Graham or Gronk could be there (I prefer Graham). If not I'd love to grab a receiver like Julio or Roddy, and my 2nd RB especially if a top 15 back is there

 
I have the #1 overall pick this year in a start 2 QB league (4pts passing) and after taking either Foster/Rice/McCoy in the 1st, i am thinking of taking the best available QB and another RB, hopefully someone in the likes of Fred Jackson.

 
I've been thinking about the same thing...I pick #3 in a 12 team redraft (.5 ppr & 4pts for a passing TD).I love that I'll get one of the Big 3 RBs, but then don't know what direction to go in rounds 2 & 3. I really think you have to go best available players - it would be ridiculous of Brees or Brady fell there...and who knows if Graham or Gronk could be there (I prefer Graham). If not I'd love to grab a receiver like Julio or Roddy, and my 2nd RB especially if a top 15 back is there
I dont know about the rb there. I am thinking most would be gone. maybe a lynch or mathews falls. maybe FJAX or SJAX. But really would you take one of those over a top 10 WR? I think WR/WR or QB/WR for sure here....
 
Where did you get your ADP? Draftguppies.com? I think it would be a rare draft where DMC is sitting there at the end of the second. FBG has his ADP at 8 and 9 for PPR and non-PPR respectively. I also don't see Murray sitting there that late.If you have one of the first three picks and you are looking at the 2-3 turn in a 12 team league, that would be spots 22-27. If you like going RB-RB, and Peterson or Stephen Jackson are a good play, and hitting a receiver like AJ Green in the third would give a pretty good start to a team, IMO. I would be happy with that start.. or, since you have a top 3 back, you can afford to take a chance on Mathews and that gives you two stud RBs when he comes back.... assuming he stays healthy. The beauty of drafting from the top three spots is that you can pretty much do whatever you want around the 2-3 turn and you should have a good start to a team.
ESPN. Sorry my ADP data wasn't up to your standards. Are you saying all of those players will be gone in the 1st 23 picks?
I just think you should be careful where you get your ADP data. ESPN is a free service and I think my grandmother has a team on there. She called and asked me why she couldn't find Dan Marino on the list. A little friendly humor doesn't hurt. Just trying to help. If you want to use ESPN ADP to plan your draft strategy, then that just makes drafting easier for me. However, since you posted here looking for suggestions, my first one would be to use FBG ADP or find another PAY site to get your info.Some of those players will be there, but I would say that in 99.9% of drafts, DMC and Murray will NOT be.ETA: I did draft from the 4 hole in one draft and MJD fell to me in the second. I took him at that point. I think the longer he holds out, the more he will fall. This draft was over a week ago, so it is feasible he is there even in the third now.
I agree, but to be honest at that point, only 23 pick into a draft, I don't think it matters much what the ADP of guys is. I am going to have a very solid list of 30 guys I want in order at that point. I don't think it's hard to list 30 guys in order. So the ADP was just thrown in there.
 
I have the #1 overall pick this year in a start 2 QB league (4pts passing) and after taking either Foster/Rice/McCoy in the 1st, i am thinking of taking the best available QB and another RB, hopefully someone in the likes of Fred Jackson.
In a 2QB, you take Aaron Rodgers #1. Because you are going to be looking at guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the like coming back. I can't stress enough how it skews the draft. There is a good chance you can go RB-QB on the hook coming back and have a very strong start. QBs are consistent as heck in scoring compared to other spots. Seriously consider Rodgers at the top (or Brady if he's your preference).
 
These guys wont be there:GronkGrahamBradyBreesDeMarco Murray Darren McFadden MJD Everyone else is possible. I'll be shooting for Stafford or RB/RB. Not worth grabbing a WR cuz there are so many good ones IMO. 4th & 5th is where Im targeting WRs.
MJD did fall to me at #20 in a FBG players championship draft. I agree the rest will likely be gone. I don't agree that taking a WR is a bad idea. You are targeting WR/WR in the 4-5, but since you have a LATE 6th, 70-72, which leaves you a pretty low QB. Who do you target as your QB in your scenario? RG3?? Roethlisberger? ickIf you go WR-RB or RB-WR at the 2-3, you have more flexibility at the 4-5. JMO
I said im targeting stafford in the 2nd
 
Good thread topic....I have the 3rd pick in a 12 team PPR.

I like to use Fantasy Football Calculator's scenario tab to give me a % of chance that the player is there at the 2/3 turn.

Lets Break this down looking at the percentage of chance that a guy makes it back to 2.10:

QB

Stafford 14% chance of being at 2.10

Newton 48%

Analysis: Depending on your love for Cam it is about a coin flip that he will be there...I think I prefer to wait on QB

TE

Graham 14%

Gronkowski 56%



Analysis: Gronk looks like a coin flip as I think people are worried about him getting the same amount of touches, and I would love to snag him at 2.10

RB

Peterson 1%

Charles 4%

Lynch 33%

Jackson 35%

Mathews 54%

Richardson 76%

Analysis: Assuming Gronk isn't there, I think this is the best value. I am a gambler, and I really like the thought of pairing a top 3 back(Foster,McCoy,Rice) with Ryan Mathews...You have the potential to have 2 top 5 backs on your team and set yourself up to dominate your league....you could also go the safer route with Stephen Jackson. I don't like Lynch here because of the pending suspension. Richardson could be interesting, I am just worried about the offense surrounding him.

WR

J.Jones 5%

Fitzgerald 28%

A.Johnson 71%

Jennings 86%

Marshall 91%

Analysis: You pretty much have your choice at WR. I have to think people are WAYYYY overvaluing Julio Jones based on the 1st preseason game. His ADP lately has shot out of a cannon. That stinks because I really liked him this year before he blew up in preseason....but now every guppy fantasy player with a TV is high on him pushing him to overrated....I almost hope that any player I am high on does nothing in preseason because of the stupid guppy that only likes what he sees and can't think for himself...now off my rant:

I see WR as so deep, but I would like to snag one at this turn, probably at the 3.03. I could see Marshall in the top 3 WR's.

So in conclusion:

My two dream scenario here:

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Gronkowski

3.03-B.Marshall

or

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Mathews

3.03-B.Marshall

I think in either scenario you have the potential to be the top team in your league depending on how the rest of your draft plays out and injuries.

 
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Good thread topic....I have the 3rd pick in a 12 team PPR.

I like to use Fantasy Football Calculator's scenario tab to give me a % of chance that the player is there at the 2/3 turn.

Lets Break this down looking at the percentage of chance that a guy makes it back to 2.10:

QB

Stafford 14% chance of being at 2.10

Newton 48%

Analysis: Depending on your love for Cam it is about a coin flip that he will be there...I think I prefer to wait on QB

TE

Graham 14%

Gronkowski 56%



Analysis: Gronk looks like a coin flip as I think people are worried about him getting the same amount of touches, and I would love to snag him at 2.10

RB

Peterson 1%

Charles 4%

Lynch 33%

Jackson 35%

Mathews 54%

Richardson 76%

Analysis: Assuming Gronk isn't there, I think this is the best value. I am a gambler, and I really like the thought of pairing a top 3 back(Foster,McCoy,Rice) with Ryan Mathews...You have the potential to have 2 top 5 backs on your team and set yourself up to dominate your league....you could also go the safer route with Stephen Jackson. I don't like Lynch here because of the pending suspension. Richardson could be interesting, I am just worried about the offense surrounding him.

WR

J.Jones 5%

Fitzgerald 28%

A.Johnson 71%

Jennings 86%

Marshall 91%

Analysis: You pretty much have your choice at WR. I have to think people are WAYYYY overvaluing Julio Jones based on the 1st preseason game. His ADP lately has shot out of a cannon. That stinks because I really liked him this year before he blew up in preseason....but now every guppy fantasy player with a TV is high on him pushing him to overrated....I almost hope that any player I am high on does nothing in preseason because of the stupid guppy that only likes what he sees and can't think for himself...now off my rant:

I see WR as so deep, but I would like to snag one at this turn, probably at the 3.03. I could see Marshall in the top 3 WR's.

So in conclusion:

My two dream scenario here:

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Gronkowski

3.03-B.Marshall

or

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Mathews

3.03-B.Marshall

I think in either scenario you have the potential to be the top team in your league depending on how the rest of your draft plays out and injuries.
:goodposting: :goodposting: Wasn't aware of that site. I'll have it open during my online draft for sure.
 
I'm agreeing on the Matthews/WR move in the 2nd/3rd. I think you set yourself up REALLY well if you do this strategy

If Stafford was there, I'd probably go that route, but I'd probably take Matthews first.

 
I'm agreeing on the Matthews/WR move in the 2nd/3rd. I think you set yourself up REALLY well if you do this strategyIf Stafford was there, I'd probably go that route, but I'd probably take Matthews first.
I have the 3 spot and really like going Mathews/WR in the 3rd. In the mocks I've done on ESPN McFadden was often falling a few days ago but no longer. But I was loving teams that had one of the top 3 Rbs along with McFadden and Mathews at the flex. Since the weekend though McFadden is almost never there and Mathews is starting to go much earlier in the 2nd too.If neither of them is there I usually take a WR like Julio/Welker/Andre and then RBs like S-Jax or Lynch. If Gronk/Graham slide there I feel like I have to take them but I've liked my teams much better taking Gates in the 5th.Stafford is certainly worthy of consideration in the 2nd but not a route I'm interested in going this year.
 
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I'm agreeing on the Matthews/WR move in the 2nd/3rd. I think you set yourself up REALLY well if you do this strategyIf Stafford was there, I'd probably go that route, but I'd probably take Matthews first.
You know, both are pretty soft players. I'd probably go Mathews there and in a RB/WR Flex, maybe Fred Jackson or Peyton Hillis coming back.
 
'Sabertooth said:
This year reminds me of the Priest Holmes days when you had only a few stud running backs and everybody else. I'm sitting with the number one pick in a draft and I'm not so much worried about who to take in round 1, but who to target on the returning 2/3 hook. I think those picks are the most important for this strategy. To me, ideally Graham or Gronk slides in there. Probably a pipe dream. Failing that, I'm hoping Brady or Brees slides in there. Not likely. So now you are getting to the nitty gritty. You can't bag these two picks up. Going off ADP, here is what is left. Assuming you took Foster/Rice/McCoy with that first pick, who do you like in that 24-30 range as a tandem to go with your stud RB?

Code:
DeMarco Murray	Wes Welker	Darren McFadden	Adrian Peterson	Jamaal Charles	Trent Richardson	Mike Wallace	Steven Jackson	A.J. GreenVictor CruzHakeem NicksRoddy WhiteMJD (Assuming he hasn't reported)Fred JacksonJulio JonesFrank Gore Brandon MarshallSteve SmithDarren Sproles Ahmad Bradshaw
Personally I was surprised to see Adrian has slid this far and I think he's the choice here. I also like Sproles in the third if you go with a Welker or Roddy here. In flex leagues, I'd probably go the Adrian then Sproles off that list.
I'm in a 10 team league with 2nd pick so the turn for me is 19, 21. I'm targetting Graham or Gronk at 19 and then a guy like Charles at 21. We'll see what happens. Its a 2QB league though so could be some good RB's and WR's left still.
 
'Sabertooth said:
'death of the cool said:
Good thread topic....I have the 3rd pick in a 12 team PPR.

I like to use Fantasy Football Calculator's scenario tab to give me a % of chance that the player is there at the 2/3 turn.

Lets Break this down looking at the percentage of chance that a guy makes it back to 2.10:

QB

Stafford 14% chance of being at 2.10

Newton 48%

Analysis: Depending on your love for Cam it is about a coin flip that he will be there...I think I prefer to wait on QB

TE

Graham 14%

Gronkowski 56%



Analysis: Gronk looks like a coin flip as I think people are worried about him getting the same amount of touches, and I would love to snag him at 2.10

RB

Peterson 1%

Charles 4%

Lynch 33%

Jackson 35%

Mathews 54%

Richardson 76%

Analysis: Assuming Gronk isn't there, I think this is the best value. I am a gambler, and I really like the thought of pairing a top 3 back(Foster,McCoy,Rice) with Ryan Mathews...You have the potential to have 2 top 5 backs on your team and set yourself up to dominate your league....you could also go the safer route with Stephen Jackson. I don't like Lynch here because of the pending suspension. Richardson could be interesting, I am just worried about the offense surrounding him.

WR

J.Jones 5%

Fitzgerald 28%

A.Johnson 71%

Jennings 86%

Marshall 91%

Analysis: You pretty much have your choice at WR. I have to think people are WAYYYY overvaluing Julio Jones based on the 1st preseason game. His ADP lately has shot out of a cannon. That stinks because I really liked him this year before he blew up in preseason....but now every guppy fantasy player with a TV is high on him pushing him to overrated....I almost hope that any player I am high on does nothing in preseason because of the stupid guppy that only likes what he sees and can't think for himself...now off my rant:

I see WR as so deep, but I would like to snag one at this turn, probably at the 3.03. I could see Marshall in the top 3 WR's.

So in conclusion:

My two dream scenario here:

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Gronkowski

3.03-B.Marshall

or

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Mathews

3.03-B.Marshall

I think in either scenario you have the potential to be the top team in your league depending on how the rest of your draft plays out and injuries.
:goodposting: :goodposting: Wasn't aware of that site. I'll have it open during my online draft for sure.
FFCalculator is essential. Best ADP site out there. Shows trends and allows you to jump into mock drafts pretty much any minute of the day. I'm upset that my work decided to block both the calculator and footballguys in the last month for me. I've been on them for 2 years now and they finally decided it was block worthy. Bastards. Of course doing mock drafts all day probably cut into my productivity. :unsure:
 
'death of the cool said:
Good thread topic....I have the 3rd pick in a 12 team PPR.

I like to use Fantasy Football Calculator's scenario tab to give me a % of chance that the player is there at the 2/3 turn.

Lets Break this down looking at the percentage of chance that a guy makes it back to 2.10:

QB

Stafford 14% chance of being at 2.10

Newton 48%

Analysis: Depending on your love for Cam it is about a coin flip that he will be there...I think I prefer to wait on QB

TE

Graham 14%

Gronkowski 56%



Analysis: Gronk looks like a coin flip as I think people are worried about him getting the same amount of touches, and I would love to snag him at 2.10

RB

Peterson 1%

Charles 4%

Lynch 33%

Jackson 35%

Mathews 54%

Richardson 76%

Analysis: Assuming Gronk isn't there, I think this is the best value. I am a gambler, and I really like the thought of pairing a top 3 back(Foster,McCoy,Rice) with Ryan Mathews...You have the potential to have 2 top 5 backs on your team and set yourself up to dominate your league....you could also go the safer route with Stephen Jackson. I don't like Lynch here because of the pending suspension. Richardson could be interesting, I am just worried about the offense surrounding him.

WR

J.Jones 5%

Fitzgerald 28%

A.Johnson 71%

Jennings 86%

Marshall 91%

Analysis: You pretty much have your choice at WR. I have to think people are WAYYYY overvaluing Julio Jones based on the 1st preseason game. His ADP lately has shot out of a cannon. That stinks because I really liked him this year before he blew up in preseason....but now every guppy fantasy player with a TV is high on him pushing him to overrated....I almost hope that any player I am high on does nothing in preseason because of the stupid guppy that only likes what he sees and can't think for himself...now off my rant:

I see WR as so deep, but I would like to snag one at this turn, probably at the 3.03. I could see Marshall in the top 3 WR's.

So in conclusion:

My two dream scenario here:

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Gronkowski

3.03-B.Marshall

or

1.03-L.McCoy

2.10-R.Mathews

3.03-B.Marshall

I think in either scenario you have the potential to be the top team in your league depending on how the rest of your draft plays out and injuries.
I have the 1.03 in a 12-team PPR Keep 2 league (my keepers this season will be Ray Rice and Gronk). Some of the "unkept" players I'm considering targeting if they are available to me at 3.03 (in order of preference):AJ Green (doubt he'll be available)

Julio Jones (doubt he'll be available)

Drew Brees (it's a 4 pt/passing TD league but he'll probably be gone)

Matt Stafford (figure a 50/50 chance he'll be available)

Ryan Matthews (could be available if the injury scares other owners away)

Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall (any of these likely to be available)

 
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