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I'm starting J. J. Nelson over________in the playoffs. (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ack88
- Start date
groin pains
Footballguy
Not sure if I am starting JJ or Kerley yet, but they will be over A Rob!
packersfan
Footballguy
In over Garcon and Robby Anderson with A.J. Green doubtful/out this week. Need the upside play and went Nelson over Anderson with weather looking like it could be an issue tomorrow night. Plus the last time Floyd was out and Nelson got No. 2 WR snaps he put up 8-79-2 so hoping for a similar type of role this week.
CataclysmicThunder
Footballguy
I'm starting J.J. Nelson over Amari Cooper. 
packersfan
Footballguy
Might be a horse apiece with Nelson and Anderson and I might hate myself tomorrow night depending on what Anderson does. Weather issues is what led me to Nelson plus what he did last time Floyd was out. But it's a real close call there for me.
One thing about Garcon - he's been damn good lately and matchup is superb but when Reed's healthy Garcon's targets dip a bit and it looks like Reed might be healthier this week than he was last week. I still think Garcon's a really good WR3, especially in PPR, but maybe the upside isn't quite as high if Reed's healthier this week. Just a little something to consider for those debating on Garcon.
Good point on Reed and Garcon. I just posted a tweet posted on Bloom's page that indicated Reed is looking a lot better this week. I have Reed as well so if I'm starting Reed and that's working against Garcon I'm not sure putting all my eggs in the WASH basket makes sense.
Anderson is tempting though. Nelson is going to share with DJ, Fitz, and Gresham. Anderson's target share is comparable to Mike Evans the last two weeks. Granted, he has a crappier QB throwing to him vs. Palmer for JJ.
packersfan
Footballguy
Yup. Anderson is definitely worth a shot. If weather wasn't a possible issue I probably would go with him. Also in my league we get bonus points for length of TDs. That could work for both guys but seems to be working more for Nelson lately. I also like the Saints' matchup little bit more. But yeah it's really really close. Like I said before I might end up hating myself for this tomorrow night.
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Just watched NYC weather:
http://abc7ny.com/weather/
Looks like rain is drying up late afternoon and temps could rise to 40s. Not bad.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Starting Nelson over Snead. I'm in a hole after the Thursday games and need to go higher risk/reward. I need a guy who can break a couple of long touchdowns in a shootout. I think Nelson at least has a shot with his speed and (probably) a more favorable spot in the pecking order.
branch0095
Footballguy
Trying to decide between the trio of JJ, Robby Anderson, and Landry in a PPR. I had Graham Thursday night but my opponent had Rawls, so that was a wash.
Just not sure what to think about Landry with Matt Moore at QB. Part of me thinks I should avoid it entirely, but another part thinks that a possession WR running short and intermediate routes may be targeted heavily with a backup QB in. Of course Anderson and Petty appear to have a bromance, and JJ is the boom-bust play in a primo matchup with no weather to worry about.
I know this isn't the start-sit advice thread but since we're talking about starting Nelson, I'd appreciate any opinions on these three.
Just not sure what to think about Landry with Matt Moore at QB. Part of me thinks I should avoid it entirely, but another part thinks that a possession WR running short and intermediate routes may be targeted heavily with a backup QB in. Of course Anderson and Petty appear to have a bromance, and JJ is the boom-bust play in a primo matchup with no weather to worry about.
I know this isn't the start-sit advice thread but since we're talking about starting Nelson, I'd appreciate any opinions on these three.
I'm in a similar situation trying to decide between JJ, R. Anderson, and Garcon. Right now I'm leaning R. Anderson. Right now Anderson seem's like lightning in a bottle as he's in a groove with Petty and getting peppered with targets. Miami D is burnable as well.
JJ is a similar boom/bust option and with an even better QB, but I hate that he has so many 2 target games. His floor seems lower than Anderson's while they both may have similar ceilings.
Garcon is a more stable option. Higher floor. Probably get 4-5 receptions, but may not get a TD with so many mouths to feed in Washington.
That's my rationale at 7 AM EST. This could change several times in the next few hours as I over analyze the situation.
packersfan
Footballguy
He's absolutely a boom-or-bust play. If you're comparing to someone like Anderson I'd say Anderson is safer especially with the massive targets he's been getting the last two games. However, and this is potentially huge, in the game where Floyd didn't play and Nelson played as the No. 2 WR (which is what should happen this week), Nelson got 12 targets. So the perceived target edge for Anderson may be neutralized this week. Nelson's matchup is also terrific, especially with Breaux now out. I also like how Nelson is closer to someone like Tyreek Hill and Taylor Gabriel in skill set so he can score as both a runner and receiver as we've seen so he can be used in diverse ways offensively. Arians is real creative with how he's using Nelson and I doubt that will change now.
Again, though, there's no denying he's a boom-or-bust play so you have to take that into consideration. For me, he'll be my WR4 behind three potential Top 10-15 WR plays this week so I'm looking for an upside WR play. Anderson would certainly fill the bill too without question but Nelson's big play potential fits my league's scoring format a bit more plus I trust Palmer more than Petty. It is a very close call especially since both matchups are incredibly great. But I think Nelson is in a prime spot to do well and I think his floor is higher than normal this week. Whether he hits on the big plays he's been hitting on lately is obviously unknown right now but he's in a great position to do well so I'm taking the shot.
Just read this morning that in weeks 13 and 14 M. Floyd's snap rates were 99% and 92% respectively while JJ Nelson's were 45% and 31% these last two games. That opens up a ton of snaps for JJ Nelson.
It's also my understanding that in week 8, when JJ Nelson last blew up, this same thing took place -- Floyd out, Nelson snap rate jumped big time.
Can anyone confirm?
This is important because he's had several 1 or 2 catch games and my assumption is these games align with Floyd being active with high snap rates and JJ with the opposite.
If this is confirmed, I think I may lean towards Nelson now (lord help me). I just read that the Jets o-line is seriously banged up so the risk of total offensive disaster is higher with R. Anderson, not to mention he's playing with a rookie QB (and potentially in iffy weather).
It's also my understanding that in week 8, when JJ Nelson last blew up, this same thing took place -- Floyd out, Nelson snap rate jumped big time.
Can anyone confirm?
This is important because he's had several 1 or 2 catch games and my assumption is these games align with Floyd being active with high snap rates and JJ with the opposite.
If this is confirmed, I think I may lean towards Nelson now (lord help me). I just read that the Jets o-line is seriously banged up so the risk of total offensive disaster is higher with R. Anderson, not to mention he's playing with a rookie QB (and potentially in iffy weather).
groin pains
Footballguy
Yup. Just looked at the game logs. This game is the outlier and it coincides with Floyd being banged up with a hamstring injury.
So this would appear to be good news.
Some bad news is Gresham's emergence. He's consistently getting targets and receptions the last three games. Back to good news, J. Brown's snaps and targets have been awful.
I think it's fair to say that Nelson will be much more involved this week. Should raise his floor at minimum to avoid a 1-8 type of game.
packersfan
Footballguy
Brown's snaps are down because the team is managing his sickle cell condition. His role isn't likely to change the rest of the season even with Floyd gone.
Gresham has become more of a factor lately but again no Floyd means a massive increase in snaps for somebody at WR and with Brown being physically limited that somebody is almost certainly going to be Nelson. I've been citing the no-Floyd game all along as one the primary reasons why I am starting him. He put up 8-79-2 that week with 12 targets. Whether we'll see that type of target number tomorrow is uncertain but I think the one thing that can be predicted is Arians will find a way to dial up some big plays of some kind for Nelson. He's been doing that consistently lately and they've been working so I don't know why he'd stop doing that this week vs. a defense that's prone to giving up big plays in the secondary nearly all season long.
Gresham has become more of a factor lately but again no Floyd means a massive increase in snaps for somebody at WR and with Brown being physically limited that somebody is almost certainly going to be Nelson. I've been citing the no-Floyd game all along as one the primary reasons why I am starting him. He put up 8-79-2 that week with 12 targets. Whether we'll see that type of target number tomorrow is uncertain but I think the one thing that can be predicted is Arians will find a way to dial up some big plays of some kind for Nelson. He's been doing that consistently lately and they've been working so I don't know why he'd stop doing that this week vs. a defense that's prone to giving up big plays in the secondary nearly all season long.
One point on the game where Floyd was out and Nelson outperformed...if I remember correctly that was against CAR back when they were healthy on D. They shut down D. Johnson on the ground big time (although I believe he caught a ton of passes). This may have forced Palmer to the air more than normal.
Now NO's D is much improved on D, but I'd still expect a pretty balanced attack against NO.
packersfan
Footballguy
Palmer hasn't thrown fewer than 30 passes in a game the entire season. Even with Johnson having a sensational year Arians loves to sling it. If Brees shows up at all tomorrow that will help push the pass attempt total up even more.
I'm in the same boat. Don't want to hijack the thread but I'm having a hard time trying to decide what to do with Landry myself. I love Nelson's potential this week but he burned me once this year already. I can't help but like his big play potential though. I'm in a full pt ppr league so sitting Landry might not be the best choice but would anyone out there play Nelson over
Edelman vs tough Denver D
Adams in Chi with a 0 degree temp and a banged up Rodgers
Landry with Matt Moore
Inman who might come crashing back to earth any game now.
Leaning Nelson over Inman or Landry right now.
My smarter half says stay with who got you here but the other half says Nelson might be a target monster, no Breux(sp) now, and no Floyd and Gresham with the Q designation and we get a bonus 5 pts for TD's over 50 yds.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Julio Jones and AJ Green.
groin pains
Footballguy
Think it's either JJ or Garcon for me now.
May wait till 1 pm games are over on Sunday.
If I'm down and opponent is outscoring his projections, I'll know I need ceiling -- so JJ would be the choice.
If I'm outscoring my projections and my opponent is underscoring his, I'd play it safe and go Garcon.
May wait till 1 pm games are over on Sunday.
If I'm down and opponent is outscoring his projections, I'll know I need ceiling -- so JJ would be the choice.
If I'm outscoring my projections and my opponent is underscoring his, I'd play it safe and go Garcon.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
I going with R Anderson over JJ, heres why
I don't trust Drew to have a quality game on the ROAD vs a quality defense. I see this game being the AZ def/Johnson game, in a AZ blowout
Gresham is playing, I see him getting the additional targets this week
Not enough documented playing time to determine JJ role, only a few big plays, not the guy I want in the playoffs in PPR
The weather is good for Anderson, and he is the apple in the eye for his QB
good luck to everyone in the playoffs
I don't trust Drew to have a quality game on the ROAD vs a quality defense. I see this game being the AZ def/Johnson game, in a AZ blowout
Gresham is playing, I see him getting the additional targets this week
Not enough documented playing time to determine JJ role, only a few big plays, not the guy I want in the playoffs in PPR
The weather is good for Anderson, and he is the apple in the eye for his QB
good luck to everyone in the playoffs
grouse
Footballguy
Similar ppr spot here myself. My wr group includes Edelman, Adams, Inman, Thielan, JJ Nelson and Rishard Matthews. FWIW, I am boldly currently going with Inman, Thielan and JJ Nelson in my lineup. I am playing against a better team in my semi-final and feel I need to swing for upside. Weather and Denver D makes me feel Edelman and Adams have low ceilings this week. I feel Inman, Thielan and Nelson are all in good weather spots and playing in games where script, opportunity and matchups all look good. I may totally look back in hindsight and kick myself for not playing regular starters Edelman/Adams, but right now, I'm shying away.
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It would be tough for me to sit Edelman and Adams. Edelman's been a target monster and Adams been catching TD's and getting yards. I was thinking of putting JJ in for Landry who I think is a crapshoot with Moore at QB but he could get peppered with targets tonight though. I think Inman is solid with both Benjamin and Williams still banged up a little. I'm sure whoever I leave out for JJ will blow up on my bench. I'll need to look into the match ups a little closer for Edelman and Adams and might sit one of them down. CBS says I'm a favorite to win but they're hardly ever right.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Brown doesn't look like he even needs to be taken into consideration. It looks like at best he'll see 4 targets but he could just as easily see zero like he did last week.
I'm actually slightly worried about Gresham after I saw that he hadn't turned in a single full practice this week. His knee if definitely bothering him to some extent. For instance, Nelson who is also dealing with a knee injury was able to turn in a full practice Friday.
Floyd quite clearly owned a relevant piece of the pie whenever he saw legitimate snaps, even as recent as week 13. Last week in fact looks to be an outlier and I suppose is rather fitting.
I feel comfortable saying that Nelson will be utilized 6-8 times this week. Once you hit a certain volume threshold with him he really needs to be on the radar because of his big play ability. This also may not be the best match-up (essentially neutral) but NO's improving pass defense doesn't mean it's a match-up to avoid. There just not a sieve anymore.
The o/u for this game is 50.5 with ARI favored by 3 so their team total is essentially 27 points. It certainly seems like Nelson will have the opportunity to contribute to those points. It's a tough call but at the very least, I think the consensus rankings of him are too low this week (~WR40).
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
Brown
57%
42%
57%
91%
94%
62%
0%
54%
38%
81%
39%
28%
37%
4
3
11
16
4
7
0
4
4
4
2
1
0
Floyd
95%
80%
90%
45%
34%
48%
81%
41%
75%
72%
64%
92%
99%
7
6
11
7
3
2
7
0
6
5
5
8
3
Fitz
97%
89%
98%
94%
91%
87%
98%
79%
87%
97%
97%
92%
97%
10
11
12
8
8
9
14
11
18
7
4
11
9
Nelson
0%
0%
0%
5%
4%
21%
80%
92%
62%
41%
56%
45%
31%
0
0
0
1
1
4
7
12
6
5
4
2
3
Gresham
36%
36%
22%
49%
84%
95%
86%
89%
86%
80%
94%
95%
79%
4
1
1
1
1
2
4
5
6
2
10
6
7
I'm actually slightly worried about Gresham after I saw that he hadn't turned in a single full practice this week. His knee if definitely bothering him to some extent. For instance, Nelson who is also dealing with a knee injury was able to turn in a full practice Friday.
Floyd quite clearly owned a relevant piece of the pie whenever he saw legitimate snaps, even as recent as week 13. Last week in fact looks to be an outlier and I suppose is rather fitting.
I feel comfortable saying that Nelson will be utilized 6-8 times this week. Once you hit a certain volume threshold with him he really needs to be on the radar because of his big play ability. This also may not be the best match-up (essentially neutral) but NO's improving pass defense doesn't mean it's a match-up to avoid. There just not a sieve anymore.
The o/u for this game is 50.5 with ARI favored by 3 so their team total is essentially 27 points. It certainly seems like Nelson will have the opportunity to contribute to those points. It's a tough call but at the very least, I think the consensus rankings of him are too low this week (~WR40).
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
Brown
57%
42%
57%
91%
94%
62%
0%
54%
38%
81%
39%
28%
37%
4
3
11
16
4
7
0
4
4
4
2
1
0
Floyd
95%
80%
90%
45%
34%
48%
81%
41%
75%
72%
64%
92%
99%
7
6
11
7
3
2
7
0
6
5
5
8
3
Fitz
97%
89%
98%
94%
91%
87%
98%
79%
87%
97%
97%
92%
97%
10
11
12
8
8
9
14
11
18
7
4
11
9
Nelson
0%
0%
0%
5%
4%
21%
80%
92%
62%
41%
56%
45%
31%
0
0
0
1
1
4
7
12
6
5
4
2
3
Gresham
36%
36%
22%
49%
84%
95%
86%
89%
86%
80%
94%
95%
79%
4
1
1
1
1
2
4
5
6
2
10
6
7
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I guess I'll definitely be starting Nelson now over Adams as I'll need the high upside because it looks like Landry will let me down tonight.
packersfan
Footballguy
I wasn't feeling great about my choice early on tonight but Anderson didn't end up going off even after his big first-quarter TD so I'm still feeling really good about my Nelson choice. I think he can top what Anderson put up on in my league or at least the difference shouldn't be significant assuming he gets the No. 2 WR snaps as expected in a super plus matchup.
SpruceGoose
Footballguy
I want to really believe in the Nelson love...but over guys in that Adams, M. Thomas, etc... tier?
Floyd was only getting like 3 targets before he was cut. The past few weeks in Arizona its been nothing but Gresham, Fitz, and Johnson.
Why does everyone think Nelson is going to get a major bump? The issue in Arizona seems to be that Palmer doesnt have much time to throw..so he has to dump it off for quick throws.
Thats my 2 cents.
Im honestly looking for reasons to play him. Adams scares me a bit...but so does Nelson.
Floyd was only getting like 3 targets before he was cut. The past few weeks in Arizona its been nothing but Gresham, Fitz, and Johnson.
Why does everyone think Nelson is going to get a major bump? The issue in Arizona seems to be that Palmer doesnt have much time to throw..so he has to dump it off for quick throws.
Thats my 2 cents.
Im honestly looking for reasons to play him. Adams scares me a bit...but so does Nelson.
In trying refined a reason to put him in my lineup over one of Mike Evans, jordy, or tyreek.
Evans has slumped last 2-3 games, but has a great matchup tomorrow night. Wr1s like him do ll against Dallas.
Tyreek hill is just as explosive and has a great matchup vs tenn. and he's streaking.
Jordy is playing Chicago in Chicago, beyond freezing weather. High winds. And Tracy porter shut him down in their matchup earlier in the season. I think it was week 7. Jordy has been a monster since then and leads the league in tds. Hard to sit. Esp BC my opportunity has Rodgers. Jordy kind of offsets if Rodgers has a huge game for him.
How can i put Nelson in for any of these guys? I'd be nuts right?
Evans has slumped last 2-3 games, but has a great matchup tomorrow night. Wr1s like him do ll against Dallas.
Tyreek hill is just as explosive and has a great matchup vs tenn. and he's streaking.
Jordy is playing Chicago in Chicago, beyond freezing weather. High winds. And Tracy porter shut him down in their matchup earlier in the season. I think it was week 7. Jordy has been a monster since then and leads the league in tds. Hard to sit. Esp BC my opportunity has Rodgers. Jordy kind of offsets if Rodgers has a huge game for him.
How can i put Nelson in for any of these guys? I'd be nuts right?
Landry ended up being huge. Thanks Jets D. Now I have to decide if I'll still go with Nelson over Adams or Edelman.
branch0095
Footballguy
I ended up starting Robby Anderson and Landry over JJ. I was starting Anderson either way, so my decision was Landry over Nelson. I was kicking myself for that until Landry's night was bailed out by the long TD.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Tough call today over Golden Tate
Gabriel and Garçon are top 20 the last 5-6 weeks so they gotta be played.
WR3 vs soft Saints. Tate 21 targets last 2 weeks no Theo Red either but the Giants are really good.
Gabriel and Garçon are top 20 the last 5-6 weeks so they gotta be played.
WR3 vs soft Saints. Tate 21 targets last 2 weeks no Theo Red either but the Giants are really good.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Chickened out...now it's between Nelson and Garçon for the WR3 spot. Tate and Gabriel starting in the one and two holes.
I did the unthinkable. Last minute I benched JORDY for JJ Nelson.
My logic: Rodgers hurting. His whole game is scrambling and creating extra time to find a guy like Jordy. Freezing temperatures. And Tracy porter on Jordy most of the day. Porter shut down Jordy earlier in the year held him to 9 yards.
Beter weather for Ari/ no. Floyd gone. Delvin breaux out. JJ nelson been scoring. Should only beer involved.
Huge, insane, bold move. But I needed max points. So far not killing me as Jordy not doing much. We will see.
My logic: Rodgers hurting. His whole game is scrambling and creating extra time to find a guy like Jordy. Freezing temperatures. And Tracy porter on Jordy most of the day. Porter shut down Jordy earlier in the year held him to 9 yards.
Beter weather for Ari/ no. Floyd gone. Delvin breaux out. JJ nelson been scoring. Should only beer involved.
Huge, insane, bold move. But I needed max points. So far not killing me as Jordy not doing much. We will see.
Well, he certainly didn't hurt you if you started him. He could have had a monster day had he not dropped that bomb from Palmer. That was sure fire 2nd td.
One thing I've noticed now. Every time the spotlight is on him and he becomes focal point of the offense he seems to shrink. I don't think he's a guy who is ready to be a focal point of an offense. Yet.
One thing I've noticed now. Every time the spotlight is on him and he becomes focal point of the offense he seems to shrink. I don't think he's a guy who is ready to be a focal point of an offense. Yet.
Sat him for Lee, which fortunately only cost me a point. Question is whether he's startable next week. He actually had some good numbers in the first Seattle game. But I agree he's probably not the guy who will put up big numbers when defenses are focusing on him.
My other options (Tyrell, Lee, Gabriel, Mitchell) all have good match-ups, so I will probably sit him again. But he's making it a tough decision with his recent play.
I left both Adams and Edelman in and it cost me a trip to the Superbowl in my league. Adams 4 pts and Nelson 14 pts. I should have known Adams is an every other week hands of pure stone(dropped 2 TD's) performer. Sad thing was that I picked Nelson up this week to start him and then pu$$ied out.
