Lets keep this simple-
1) Some plans were non compliant and had to be cancelled.
a) In some case carriers were willing and able thanks to insurance commissions offer early renewals
b) In some cases carriers were willing, but insurance commissions were not
c) In some cases carriers were not willing and we will never know about insurance commissions
I'm willing to give you that 1b and 1c were "mandated" cancellations.
2) There were other reasons plans were cancelled
a) Aetna already had too small of a market share and was going to lose 30% of that in California so it opted out all together
b) United's market share was even smaller
c) Some old grandfathered plans were just bad deals for customers and new plans just served them better
d) Some old grandfathered plans were just bad deals for the carriers under the new regulations and the carriers dropped them
None of these were because the "ACA mandated" cancellations. Maybe the ACA changed things such that these were obvious, not much debate changes but they were not mandated changes.
My claim was/is that group of cancellations in group 2 is significant enough that any claim that "all of the cancellations were mandated" is at least as misleading as "if you like your plan you can keep it". So arguing that "all of the cancellations were mandated" while calling the president a liar creates a double standard for those making such claims.
Good post, truly, now we're getting somewhere....
1a plans
haven't been canceled yet, obviously, so they shouldn't even be in this discussion, right? You can't count them as canceled plans if they haven't been canceled. Anyway, 1a just means that they were offered an early renewal in 2013, but that they couldn't be renewed in 2014 - so they will end up being canceled in 2014 rather than at the end of 2013. The
only reason they were given the offer of an early renewal was to prevent the cancellation for as long as possible, but it's inevitable either way. I mean, why would the carriers go through all that trouble (getting at least one carrier, Humana, fined for their effort) if they had the ability to just renew the plan in 2014 like normal?
1b and 1c were very, very big numbers.
2a and 2b are such small numbers (something like 49k and 8k, total of 57k), that they only represent about 1.1% of all those who were canceled. Even though had those carriers stayed in the market, a very good chuck of thier would have been canceled (either via your 1a, 1b or 1c example). Assuming half were grandfathered and half weren't, it means that we're talking about .55% of all those canceled may have been able to remain on their coverage had those carriers stayed.
2c makes no sense, as a business. If they were a bad deal for the customer, wouldn't that mean they were a good deal for the carrier? Why would the carriers shoot themselves in the foot and cancel out a good deal for them?
2d also doesn't make sense, because it couldn't happen. Those older grandfathered plans were "guaranteed renewable" (definition -
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/guaranteed_renewable_policy.asp), and because they were grandfathered the ACA didn't affect them. Do you know the lawsuits that would be filed against the carriers if they dropped grandfathered plans out from under people (assuming they didn't have to because they left the market like in your 2a or 2b)? Assuming the carrier remained in the market, they couldn't drop grandfathered plans from people.
So if you're going to give me 1b and 1c, then when the policy date for all the 1a policies comes around in 2014, you'll have to give me those as well - because they will all turn into 1b type policies. Also 2a and 2b are such a small number, you can pretty much throw them out - or we could take the number from 100% to 99.5%, if you wish. 2c and 2d both don't make sense.