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Iran - Democracy Movement, The Nuke Deal & The Future (3 Viewers)

GROOT said:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/11/iran-more-than-100-protesters-believed-to-be-killed-as-top-officials-give-green-light-to-crush-protests/
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Verified video footage, eyewitness testimony from people on the ground and information gathered from human rights activists outside Iran reveal a harrowing pattern of unlawful killings by Iranian security forces, which have used excessive and lethal force to crush largely peaceful protests in more than 100 cities across Iran sparked by a hike in fuel prices on 15 November, said Amnesty International today.

At least 106 protesters in 21 cities have been killed, according to credible reports received by Amnesty International. The organization believes that the real death toll may be much higher, with some reports suggesting as many as 200 have been killed. State media have reported only a handful of protester deaths, as well as the deaths of at least four members of the security forces.
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- Per Amnesty. This is from November. Apparently the turning off the internet inside Iran was a part of the strategy to keep this from being an international incident, but the deaths from that day continue to be a driver in the domestic pro-democracy protests inside the country.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
GROOT said:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/11/iran-more-than-100-protesters-believed-to-be-killed-as-top-officials-give-green-light-to-crush-protests/
Click to expand...
Verified video footage, eyewitness testimony from people on the ground and information gathered from human rights activists outside Iran reveal a harrowing pattern of unlawful killings by Iranian security forces, which have used excessive and lethal force to crush largely peaceful protests in more than 100 cities across Iran sparked by a hike in fuel prices on 15 November, said Amnesty International today.

At least 106 protesters in 21 cities have been killed, according to credible reports received by Amnesty International. The organization believes that the real death toll may be much higher, with some reports suggesting as many as 200 have been killed. State media have reported only a handful of protester deaths, as well as the deaths of at least four members of the security forces.
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- Per Amnesty. This is from November. Apparently the turning off the internet inside Iran was a part of the strategy to keep this from being an international incident, but the deaths from that day continue to be a driver in the domestic pro-democracy protests inside the country.
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Kinda brings @Henry Ford 's post asking the benefit of candidates cheering on the protesters into focus, no?

 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/27/mohsen-fakhrizadeh-iranian-nuclear-scientist-reportedly-shot-dead-near-tehran

The killing was seen inside Iran as being as grave as the assassination by US forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani in January.

Fakhrizadeh had been described by western and Israeli intelligence services for years as the leader of a covert atomic bomb programme halted in 2003. He was a central figure in a presentation by the Israeli prime minister, Benajmin Netanyahu, in 2018 accusing Iran of continuing to seek nuclear weapons. “Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh,” Netanyahu said during the presentation.

Fakhrizadeh, on a US sanctions list, was regarded as the main keeper of Iranian knowledge of its nuclear programme. A brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a professor of physics at the guard’s Imam Hussein University, he was cloaked in mystery.

Until April 2018, no photograph of him was publicly available, and after the killing of several other nuclear scientists, a further shield of secrecy and security had been thrown around him, in an effort to protect him against Israeli assassins.
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This WP article had some quotes that pushed back on the notion that this would significantly impact their weapon's program.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/527738-who-killed-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-irans-nuclear-chief-israel-is-the-likely

We await fuller details but photos published on Twitter suggest there were no survivors in his car. Another vehicle appears to have been completely destroyed by a bomb.

Israel, it seems, is back to its policy from 2010 to 2012 of the assassination of Iran’s nuclear scientists, suspended under pressure from the Obama administration so that Iran would agree to being a party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multination nuclear accord that, on paper, constrained its nuclear activities. To tighten pressure on Tehran, the Trump administration exited the JCPOA in 2018. Since then, Iran has increased its production of enriched uranium and the number of operating centrifuges. An assumed Israeli attack in July on the centrifuge assembly plant at the main Natanz facility is thought to have set back, but not stopped, Iran’s ambitions.

In terms of significance, the killing of Fakhrizadeh is on par with the January killing by U.S. forces in Baghdad of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander who coordinated Tehran’s destabilizing activities in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Tehran has sworn to avenge that attack but has yet to do so. Iran’s habitual preference to wait for an opportunity now has to be balanced against an urge to lash out in revenge. 
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Good read here also: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/irans-top-nuclear-scientist-assassinated-what-we-know.html

The New York Times reports that “one American official — along with two other intelligence officials — said that Israel was behind the attack on the scientist.” The Times also points out that Fakhrizadeh “had long been the No. 1 target of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service.” Israel has declined to comment on the attack, but Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert assassination and sabotage operations targeting nuclear scientists and facilities inside Iran over the past decade — though Israel has never directly admitted responsibility for those efforts. A few weeks ago, the Times reported that in August, Israel had killed, at the bequest of the U.S., a top Al Qaeda leader who had been hiding in Iran.

It is not clear whether or not the U.S. had any involvement in, or advance knowledge of the strike on Fakhrizadeh. White House, Pentagon, and CIA officials all declined to comment about the attack on Friday, while President Trump retweeted an Israeli journalist calling Fakhrizadeh’s death “a major psychological and professional blow for Iran.” Earlier this month, Trump reportedly asked his senior advisers if there were any military options for striking Iran’s main nuclear site, but was apparently dissuaded after he was warned that such a strike could lead to broader conflict. At the time, however, Trump administration officials told the Times that the outgoing president might still be considering other options for striking Iranian assets. The Wall Street Journal adds that:

As far as what impact the killing of Fakhrizadeh will have on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Journal reports that:

Fakhrizadeh’s death won’t dent Iran’s ability to continue to accrue enriched uranium, which can be refined into weapons-grade nuclear fuel, or its work on ballistic missiles potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. But officials who have been involved in nuclear diplomacy with Iran say Mr. Fakhrizadeh was a crucial figure in Iranian nuclear work over the past two decades, with unparalleled knowledge of who had done what and the full trust of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They said he was effectively the manager of Iran’s nuclear-weaponization program, deciding where to put people, how to recruit them, how to keep the program secret and how, after Iran shelved its main nuclear-weapons effort, to retain knowledge and capabilities.

Speaking with the Washington Post on Friday, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, added that “Fakhrizadeh likely knew more about Iran’s nuclear program than any living human. Losing his leadership, knowledge and institutional memory is undoubtedly a blow to the Islamic Republic.” However, Atlantic Council fellow Holly Dagres noted that “Iran’s nuclear know-how isn’t dependent on one man,” and she doubted that his death would do any permanent damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
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Don't Toews Me said:
Guessing this was another Mossad op (Kidon being the unit that took out the al Qaeda fighter a couple months back) with cooperation from the CIA and others. 

The previous assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists back in 2010-2013ish were not as high profile as this recent one. 
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I should make clear this was an assumption on my part, not confirmed. Whether the US knew or had advanced knowledge or played a role has not been confirmed. 

Edit: Additionally, unclear if the US had advanced knowledge (or cooperated) in the assassinations back in 2010-2012. 

 
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BigJim® said:
Did the US announce involvement in this? 
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No nothing was announced. 

Said that in the gun battle that happened after 3 of the people involved were killed.  So it should not be difficult to find out where they are from.

 
No reason we shouldn't get along with Iran. We need to apologize for all of our past meddling, resume formal diplomatic relations, and put in effort to rebuild our relationship. Huge country with a fairly progressive (for the region) and well educated population that views American people favorably. We're so off in terms of our perception of Iran. We are on the wrong side of history on this one. 

 
Da Guru said:
No nothing was announced. 

Said that in the gun battle that happened after 3 of the people involved were killed.  So it should not be difficult to find out where they are from.
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Ahh ok, thought I'd missed something when credit was being given.

 
Moe. said:
No reason we shouldn't get along with Iran. We need to apologize for all of our past meddling, resume formal diplomatic relations, and put in effort to rebuild our relationship. Huge country with a fairly progressive (for the region) and well educated population that views American people favorably. We're so off in terms of our perception of Iran. We are on the wrong side of history on this one. 
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The reason we shouldn't get along with them is so their nuclear energy program doesn't allow them to flood the market with more of their oil in exchange for non-USD currencies.  Being sarcastic here but we have been on the wrong (ethical) side of pretty much every conflict in the ME as our involvement  usually stems from us propping up the petro-dollar.

 
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The Z Machine said:
The US is not at war with Iran.  He was not an enemy.
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Retired General Tony Thomas had a quick twitter thread that your post made me think of: https://twitter.com/TonyT2Thomas/status/1332338759543689216

A decade ago I had a conversation with a prominent leader in the Mideast about Iran. I offered that we (US) were not at war with them and only pushing economic sanctions. He aggressively countered by saying “you may think you aren’t at war but Iran does.”

He went on to say “you conducted a cyber attack on them with STUXNET that spilled over to more than the intended target, and you someone like you (Israel) have assasinated several of their lead scientists on the streets of Tehran.” Changed my perspective on the state of affairs.
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The vehicle seems like it's in pretty good condition for an assassination.  Blowing the vehicle up seems like it would have been a more effective solution than sniping the driver.

 
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-revolutionary-guards-commander-reported-killed-in-drone-strike/

^Iranian Commander killed along border of Syria and Iraq. 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37882/lets-talk-about-remote-controlled-gun-turrets-and-the-killing-of-irans-top-nuclear-scientist

The remote controlled turret theory could be possible, but not entirely clear. The story out of Iran, whatever that may be worth considering the origin is state media, has changed a few times now. 

 
timschochet said:
I didn’t hear it. Conservative pundits sure make it sound like there was.

But hear is my prediction, based on my “Trump Doctrine” theory: During the next 12 days Trump will continually threaten to pull the plug on the agreement, and even announce that he is going to do so- though he won’t actually do it. During that time he is counting on France and Germany to pressure Iran into offering a concession- if that happens Trump will declare victory and his supporters will shout “MAGA!” Trump will accept the concession no matter what it is. 

If however Iran refuses to concede, Trump will find a way to delay ending the agreement. And what’s important here is follow the news very carefully: Trump will announce that he is ending the agreement, and the headlines will say he has ended it, but Trump’s actual words will leave some sort of wiggle room- he will end the agreement next week unless...etc. 
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👀

 
timschochet said:
Back in my naive days when I believed there were still guardrails keeping Trump from behaving too crazily with regard to foreign policy. 
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New posters in these forums probably don’t believe that you used to be a conservative!  

Much respect for you tim.  Proof that one can revisit and change their priors if they are open to new information.  👍

 
tommyGunZ said:
New posters in these forums probably don’t believe that you used to be a conservative!  

Much respect for you tim.  Proof that one can revisit and change their priors if they are open to new information.  👍
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Thanks but I rather would have been right the first time.

In many ways I still am a conservative. I’m not in love with a lot of these leftists in the Democratic Party these days trying to steer us towards socialism. I like liberalism but not leftism. Still with the GOP having lost their souls what can I do? I honestly don’t believe I can currently vote Republican and maintain an image of myself as a moral person. 

 
timschochet said:
Thanks but I rather would have been right the first time.

In many ways I still am a conservative. I’m not in love with a lot of these leftists in the Democratic Party these days trying to steer us towards socialism. I like liberalism but not leftism. Still with the GOP having lost their souls what can I do? I honestly don’t believe I can currently vote Republican and maintain an image of myself as a moral person. 
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I too was once a conservative Tim.  I wasn’t too far in though so my transformation (conservative > libertarian > liberal)  was pretty quick.  Those of you who were deeper in have a longer time in that libertarian/moderate liberal phase.  👍

 
timschochet said:
Thanks but I rather would have been right the first time.

In many ways I still am a conservative. I’m not in love with a lot of these leftists in the Democratic Party these days trying to steer us towards socialism. I like liberalism but not leftism. Still with the GOP having lost their souls what can I do? I honestly don’t believe I can currently vote Republican and maintain an image of myself as a moral person. 
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I can vote for anyone I want and be moral.  

 
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