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Iran - Democracy Movement, The Nuke Deal & The Future (2 Viewers)

He’s easily manipulated, he’s surrounded by hawks and yes men, he contorts his own intelligence, doesn’t understand most of it, and he’s been feeding the KSA conflicts in Qatar & Yemen. He’s creating conditions that increase risk which could cause conflict involving the US. Even when he appears to be withdrawing from conflict - Syria (ignore his reasons for now) - it increases risk of conflict as KSA rushes in and Iran expands. We’re basically riding on luck.
All good points. 

 
There’s very little that I trust about President Trump but one of the few things is this: he does not want any new wars, and despite some of the hawks in his administration he’s not going to get us into war. I hope I’m right. 
If it were any other country, I’d probably agree.  His signature move appears to be blowing a gasket on Twitter and then seeking a more conflict averse resolution to the problem.  He did this with Kim and Assad to a lesser extent (though they will almost certainly get back to instigating a war there too).

But this is what Israel wants.  It’s what Sheldon Adelson and Kristol’s FDD want. It’s what they’ve wanted for decades.  He’s basically turned over the entire State Dept. to them wrt Iran. They’ve already killed Iranians with their abhorrent sanctions regime.  

Unlike the Trump/Putin fairytale, which was a stupid ####### meme the whole time, Trump will serve his Zionist handlers to the bitter end.  

 
If it were any other country, I’d probably agree.  His signature move appears to be blowing a gasket on Twitter and then seeking a more conflict averse resolution to the problem.  He did this with Kim and Assad to a lesser extent (though they will almost certainly get back to instigating a war there too).

But this is what Israel wants.  It’s what Sheldon Adelson and Kristol’s FDD want. It’s what they’ve wanted for decades.  He’s basically turned over the entire State Dept. to them wrt Iran. They’ve already killed Iranians with their abhorrent sanctions regime.  

Unlike the Trump/Putin fairytale, which was a stupid ####### meme the whole time, Trump will serve his Zionist handlers to the bitter end.  
I don’t believe that Israel wants a war between the US and Iran. They want tough pressure on Iran but not a war. That would be terrible for Israel. 

As for the rest of your post- I don’t think you’re an anti-Semite, ren, but you’re using anti-Semitic rhetoric here and it’s unfortunate. Crap like “Trump will serve his Zionist handlers”: that’s some really ugly stuff (and BS too.) I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and guess that you don’t fully realize the implications. But you should. 

 
If it were any other country, I’d probably agree.  His signature move appears to be blowing a gasket on Twitter and then seeking a more conflict averse resolution to the problem.  He did this with Kim and Assad to a lesser extent (though they will almost certainly get back to instigating a war there too).

But this is what Israel wants.  It’s what Sheldon Adelson and Kristol’s FDD want. It’s what they’ve wanted for decades.  He’s basically turned over the entire State Dept. to them wrt Iran. They’ve already killed Iranians with their abhorrent sanctions regime.  ...
I'm not going to fall into this overall trope... but what I've been trying to say to you is that our non-posture posture and non-withdrawal withdrawal in Syria is doing is causing greater risk.

Netanyahu is yes extremely nationalist, he has become much more so under Trump. He is expanding into Golan with Trump's support and he wants to do the same with Palestine. 

But my point is that by removing the buffer in Syria Trump has increased the risk of conflict between Iran and Israel. Israel has attacked Iranian (!) positions in Syria. 

Simultaneously Trump has made arguably illegal arms sales to KSA and KSA has also moved in (via proxy) to eastern Syria... where Iran also is. And we're encouraging the same framework in Qatar and Yemen. 

So what we see is increased conflict and risk of conflict between Israel/Iran and KSA/Iran, and we get dragged in anyway. 

 
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I don’t believe that Israel wants a war between the US and Iran. They want tough pressure on Iran but not a war. That would be terrible for Israel. 

As for the rest of your post- I don’t think you’re an anti-Semite, ren, but you’re using anti-Semitic rhetoric here and it’s unfortunate. Crap like “Trump will serve his Zionist handlers”: that’s some really ugly stuff (and BS too.) I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and guess that you don’t fully realize the implications. But you should. 
Only if you automatically conflate "Zionists" with "Jews".  Which is kind of weird in itself.  A lot of Jewish people don't support the idea of a genocidal, supremacist state and it's unfair to them to characterize them otherwise.  Some of the most dedicated Zionists in the US are Christians.  

Look at how far right and emboldened Israel has become with Trump's backing.  Moving the embassy to Jerusalem, murdering Palestinian protesters in broad daylight, US as the lone wolf on Israel's behalf at the UN, brutal sanctions on Iran, withdrawing from the Iran deal.  I'm not sure what nicer way there is to say Trump's administration is ridiculously beholden to Zionists, and neoconservatives with a bizarre soft spot for Israel.  

 
Just another thought about Trump and wars: Trump ran for 1.5 years, transitioned for another .5, and has been president 2.5 years. We still don't know what his ideology is beyond nationalism. He doesn't hold facts in his head, we know that too. He recently said no one knew what Vietnam was in 1968. He said that because it suited him, it's not strictly a lie to him because it's real in his head. And he didn't oppose the Vietnam war, he was in a military school for crying out loud, he just didn't want to risk his neck.

Trump does not appear to have any real view on war. He opposes international structures and organizations and traditions designed to prevent war, we know that. He bulls through good policy and does what he wants and creates greater risk of war, we know that.

The only reason to think he doesn't want war is that he seems to think people don't want war. His base doesn't want it, he doesn't want it. If he says something bellicose and the polls come back bad, he doesn't like that and denies he said it. 

Has Trump ever said anything positive or negative about Khameini? He has said loads about Putin, KJU, Maduro, Duterte, Bolsanaro, Xi... he likely doesn't think about Khameini at all because he probably doesn't think Americans care about him or knows who he is.

Same guy said 'Who's that?' when Macron brought up the negotiations his nuke deal negotiator Brian Hook had been doing for a year.

Trump could dislike a war today and like it tomorrow if a US ship is hit. There's nothing inherently pro-war or anti-war about him. He could make anti-war noises and then cause a false sense of security by Iran to push the envelope over and over again, and then feel personally offended by something that Khameini told Abe and then sell sophisticated arms to MSB. Anything can happen.

 
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These are heady days for casino billionaire and megadonor Sheldon Adelson.

A passionate and hawkish advocate for Israel with close ties to its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Adelson was in Jerusalem today for a celebration of the U.S. embassy’s relocation to that city, a longstanding priority for the mogul. Similarly, Adelson had pushed hard for President Donald Trump to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, which happened last week.

And the day after that announcement, Adelson quietly slipped into the White House for a private meeting with Trump and three top administration officials: Vice President Mike Pence, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and an Adelson favorite, National Security Adviser John Bolton, according to two conservative sources familiar with the previously unreported private event.

Both the embassy move and the withdrawal from the 2015 pact that coupled the lifting of sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran’s dismantling of its nuclear program have sparked controversy and criticism from some key American allies. On Monday, Palestinian officials said at least 52 Palestinians were killed by Israelis as they tried to break through a fence separating Gaza and Israel, in part to protest the embassy's relocation. The White House actions partially are testament to Adelson’s clout and that of like-minded pro-Israel conservatives, many observers believe. //

But Adelson’s cash also helped elect Trump — even though during the campaign Trump often asserted his independence of big donors to portray himself as a self-styled populist.

“I don’t need anybody’s money,” he said in mid-June 2015. “I’m using my own money…I’m really rich.”

In 2016, Adelson gave almost $83 million in publicly disclosed funds to Republican groups and candidates, including $20 million to Future 45, a super PAC that backed Trump. He also threw in a record $5 million to the inaugural committee, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

During the inaugural parties last January, Adelson received a special shout-out from the president himself.

At one big inaugural gala, Trump thanked Adelson publicly for donating, along with his wife, an Israeli-born physician, $120 million to numerous outside groups and candidates in 2016 to help put him in the White House and keep the GOP majority in Congress, two people who heard the remarks told McClatchy. The larger figure likely includes funds given by Adelson to politically active nonprofit groups that don’t have to disclose their donors.

Still, Adelson and his allies had to keep up the pressure on Trump to achieve both of their recent successes. Adelson was upset that Trump didn’t act to move the embassy early on in his tenure, as he’d pledged during the campaign. Likewise, Trump took a long time to decide to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.

But the Las Vegas billionaire — currently rated the 16th richest man in the world with a net worth of $42. 5 billion, according to Forbes — isn’t shy about expressing his views to political heavyweights; at one point, he even offered to help pay for construction of a new embassy building if Trump made the move.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article211098039.html

 
Both the embassy move and the withdrawal from the 2015 pact that coupled the lifting of sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran’s dismantling of its nuclear program have sparked controversy and criticism from some key American allies.
I have a question - why do you think Trump supporters are so enthusiastic about these moves? Clearly it's not zionism.

 
I have a question - why do you think Trump supporters are so enthusiastic about these moves? Clearly it's not zionism.
Some of them have also supported the Assange indictments (after being rightly on his side), escalation with NK because it was "spicy," de-escalation with NK because he's 'shaking it up' or whatever, I mean the dyed in the wool true believers will support anything he does.  

The same thing happened with Bush, Obama, etc.  It's really not new imo.  

 
Did he mention how Iran has attacked the US in the first place (for it to be retaliatory)?

The "Front Altair" flies Marshall Island flag and is owned by Frontline, a company listed in Bermuda, mostly owned by a Norwegian. The cargo was going to Taiwan

The "Kokuka Courageous" flies the Panamanian flag and is owned by a Japanese company. The cargo was going to Singapore.

I struggle to see how the US has been attacked by whomever is behind this

 
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The US government claimed without evidence that Iran was responsible for supposed “attacks” on the vessels. Trump administration officials accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of damaging a Japanese tanker with a mine.

But by the morning of Friday, June 14, the narrative had been debunked, with the Japanese cargo company Kokuka Sangyo telling journalists that the US government’s version of the story was simply bogus.

“The crew is saying that it was hit by a flying object,” explained the president of the company, Yutaka Katada. “They are saying that something came flying.”

“To put a bomb on the side is something that we are not thinking,” he added, in comments at a press conference.

The US military published video of what it claims is an Iranian boat crew removing an unexploded mine from the hull of the Japanese tanker Kokuka Courageous.

But the company’s president insisted in remarks reported by Reuters that it was not an Iranian mine but rather two “flying objects” that damaged the ship.

“The crew told us something came flying at the ship, and they found a hole,” Katada reiterated. “Then some crew witnessed the second shot.”

US gov narrative blaming Iran for oil tanker attacks falls apart in hours

 
msommer said:
Did he mention how Iran has attacked the US in the first place (for it to be retaliatory)?
Well, let's put this way. We had the Maine incident, which ostensibly was an attack by Spain on a US ship, and we had the Tonkin incident, which ostensibly was an attack by North Vietnam on a US ship...

...and following Cotton's logic we have the Hormuz incident which ostensibly was an attack on a Japanese ship which {checking notes here...} is an attack on the US.

 
msommer said:
Did he mention how Iran has attacked the US in the first place (for it to be retaliatory)?

The "Front Altair" flies Marshall Island flag and is owned by Frontline, a company listed in Bermuda, mostly owned by a Norwegian. The cargo was going to Taiwan

The "Kokuka Courageous" flies the Panamanian flag and is owned by a Japanese company. The cargo was going to Singapore.

I struggle to see how the US has been attacked by whomever is behind this
I suspect they are referring to the rockets fired at the US drone.

 
  1. Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai, via Bandar Abbas, that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser of the United States Navy.
  2. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed, and all 290 people on board, including 66 children, were killed. The jet was hit while flying over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, along the flight's usual route
  3. Vincennes had entered Iranian territory after one of its helicopters drew warning fire from Iranian speedboats operating within Iranian territorial limits.
  4. "...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..." As part of the settlement, even though the U.S. government did not admit legal liability or formally apologize to Iran, it still agreed to pay US$61.8 million on an ex gratia basis, amounting to $213,103.45 per passenger, in compensation to the families of the Iranian victims.[
  5. In 1990, Capt. Rogers was awarded the Legion of Merit decoration "for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ... from April 1987 to May 1989." The award was given for his service as the Commanding Officer of the Vincennes, and the citation made no mention of the downing of Iran Air 655.
:doh:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

 
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  1. Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai, via Bandar Abbas, that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser of the United States Navy.
  2. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed, and all 290 people on board, including 66 children, were killed. The jet was hit while flying over Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf, along the flight's usual route
  3. Vincennes had entered Iranian territory after one of its helicopters drew warning fire from Iranian speedboats operating within Iranian territorial limits.
  4. "...the United States recognized the aerial incident of 3 July 1988 as a terrible human tragedy and expressed deep regret over the loss of lives caused by the incident..." As part of the settlement, even though the U.S. government did not admit legal liability or formally apologize to Iran, it still agreed to pay US$61.8 million on an ex gratia basis, amounting to $213,103.45 per passenger, in compensation to the families of the Iranian victims.[
  5. In 1990, Capt. Rogers was awarded the Legion of Merit decoration "for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ... from April 1987 to May 1989." The award was given for his service as the Commanding Officer of the Vincennes, and the citation made no mention of the downing of Iran Air 655.
:doh:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Americans have conveniently forgotten about this horrific incident. https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2017/07/03/the-forgotten-us-shootdown-of-iranian-airliner-flight-655­/

 
Iran passes the threshold set in the agreement which means the current approach isn't working and we are worse off today as a global community than we were just two years ago.  Sanctions aren't slowing them in any meaningful way and they continue to move forward.

Raise your hand if you didn't see this coming.

 
Iran passes the threshold set in the agreement which means the current approach isn't working and we are worse off today as a global community than we were just two years ago.  Sanctions aren't slowing them in any meaningful way and they continue to move forward.

Raise your hand if you didn't see this coming.
It remains to be seen what the remaining signatories (the EU, at least) will do now. They may choose to renew the sanctions that the deal made obsolete. Not sure that will happen now for various reasons, though.

 
This is what is going to happen. 

1. We are going to accept Iran as a nation with nuclear weapons. 

2. We are going to accept North Korea as a nation with nuclear weapons. 

This is tremendously concerning for the future of the planet. Perhaps both was always inevitable but at least in the case of Iran we might have been able to delay this outcome for decades, perhaps. We screwed up. All of that effort by Obama and Hillary completely down the drain, tossed away for short term political goals. 

And yeah I’m ####### pissed. And I know who to blame. 

 
This is what is going to happen. 

1. We are going to accept Iran as a nation with nuclear weapons. 

2. We are going to accept North Korea as a nation with nuclear weapons. 

This is tremendously concerning for the future of the planet. Perhaps both was always inevitable but at least in the case of Iran we might have been able to delay this outcome for decades, perhaps. We screwed up. All of that effort by Obama and Hillary completely down the drain, tossed away for short term political goals. 

And yeah I’m ####### pissed. And I know who to blame. 
There's still hope with the 2020 election. Maybe this accelerates the world's independence from the dollar, which is even worse for the USA. 

Would Iran and Israel become MAD partners, ala India and Pakistan?

More nuclear states is bad. At one point, Trump suggested Japan and SK should have nukes and their own nuclear umbrella.  Pakistan worries me as much as Iran. 

 
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timschochet said:
This is what is going to happen. 

1. We are going to accept Iran as a nation with nuclear weapons. 

2. We are going to accept North Korea as a nation with nuclear weapons. 

This is tremendously concerning for the future of the planet. Perhaps both was always inevitable but at least in the case of Iran we might have been able to delay this outcome for decades, perhaps. We screwed up. All of that effort by Obama and Hillary completely down the drain, tossed away for short term political goals. 

And yeah I’m ####### pissed. And I know who to blame. 
We paid North Korea to develop nuclear weapons.  That was really stupid.

 
Iran nuclear deal breaches not yet significant, EU says

"Technically all the steps that have been taken, and that we regret have been taken, are reversible," Ms Mogherini said, following a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

She said none of the signatories to the deal considered the breaches to be significant, and so they would not be triggering its dispute mechanism which could lead to further sanctions.

The meeting in Brussels was focused on reducing tensions with Iran and ensuring the nuclear deal remains in place.
It seems Mr Trump is on his own...

 
In much of the corporate media coverage of Iran, they fail to mention how:

-Iran has been in the crosshairs of Western imperialism for decades

-Iran has seen many of its neighbors invaded/destroyed/occupied by U.S. forces

-sanctions make life hell for ordinary Iranians

 
ren hoek said:
In much of the corporate media coverage of Iran, they fail to mention how:

-Iran has been in the crosshairs of Western imperialism for decades

-Iran has seen many of its neighbors invaded/destroyed/occupied by U.S. forces

-sanctions make life hell for ordinary Iranians
So, what's the end goal for Western imperialism?

 
https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1169289821774405633

Amazing the stuff that doesn’t even register a blip in the news anymore: US state dept offered multimillion dollar bribe to captain of Iranian oil tanker if he would divert the ship to a country where the US could seize it.  

Then appeared to threaten the captain if he didn’t.  
It is the worst, and the dumbest, administration I can recall.

Link to the FT article:
https://www.ft.com/content/20188064-cefb-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

 

Four days before the US imposed sanctions on an Iranian tanker suspected of shipping oil to Syria, the vessel’s Indian captain received an unusual email from the top Iran official at the Department of State.

“This is Brian Hook . . . I work for secretary of state Mike Pompeo and serve as the US Representative for Iran,” Mr Hook wrote to Akhilesh Kumar on August 26, according to several emails seen by the Financial Times. “I am writing with good news.”  The “good news” was that the Trump administration was offering Mr Kumar several million dollars to pilot the ship — until recently known as the Grace 1 — to a country that would impound the vessel on behalf of the US. To make sure Mr Kumar did not mistake the email for a scam, it included an official state department phone number.

The remarkable outreach by such a high-ranking official was not an isolated case. Mr Hook, who heads the state department’s Iran Action Group, has emailed or texted roughly a dozen captains in recent months in an effort to scare mariners into understanding that helping Iran evade sanctions comes at a heavy price. “Iran knows that the success of our pressure campaign depends on vigorous enforcement of oil sanctions,” Mr Hook told the FT. “We have collapsed Iran’s oil exports in a short period of time. We are working very closely with the maritime community to disrupt and deter illicit oil exports.”

The offer to Mr Kumar marks a new front in the US “maximum pressure” campaign designed to starve Iran of cash and persuade Tehran to come to the table to negotiate a broader deal than the nuclear accord that Iran signed with the Obama administration and world powers in 2015.

In response to the FT story, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, tweeted: “Having failed at piracy, the US resorts to outright blackmail — deliver us Iran’s oil and receive several million dollars or be sanctioned yourself.”

Mr Hook’s message to Mr Kumar came 11 days after the Iranian tanker was released by Gibraltar, where it had been at the centre of a stand-off between Iran and the west. The vessel was seized by British commandos off Gibraltar in July on suspicions that it was carrying Iranian oil to Syria in breach of EU sanctions. After Iran said the oil would not go to Syria, a court in the British territory ordered its release last month despite a last-minute US legal bid to seize the vessel.

Mr Hook’s emails showed the US was not giving up. His offer to Mr Kumar, whose vessel is now known as Adrian Darya 1, came under “Rewards for Justice” — a 1984 programme to combat terrorism. According to US officials, the US has recently started using the programme in its efforts to target Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and will offer rewards of up to $15m for information that helps the US disrupt Iranian illicit activities.

“With this money you can have any life you wish and be well-off in old age,” Mr Hook wrote in a second email to Mr Kumar that also included a warning. “If you choose not to take this easy path, life will be much harder for you.”

In the intervening two days, the US had watched as the Adrian Darya 1 made “doughnut” shape manoeuvres at sea that suggested Mr Kumar might have been deciding how to react. After the captain failed to respond, Mr Hook emailed him to say that the US Treasury had imposed sanctions on him. Mr Kumar did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The US campaign comes as Iran threatens to take more steps by Friday to breach commitments made in the 2015 accord if Europe does not provide the financial rewards Tehran was guaranteed under the deal. While France, Germany and the UK are desperate to prevent Iran from going down that route, they are hamstrung by US sanctions. The US effort to warn mariners about working with Iran comes as it looks for novel ways to pressure Tehran after imposing a raft of harsh sanctions during the past year. The US official said Washington intended to start focusing even more on enforcement and would offer inducements to urge captains and crew to co-operate, while also threatening to revoke their US visas, which would prevent them from entering US waters, if they did not co-operate. “We are trying to dry up their labour pool to move illicit oil,” said the official.

Several of the Adrian Darya 1 crew did not return to work after its release last month, according to a second US official. The US has also warned shipping companies and their crews that they face possible prosecution for helping the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has been designated a “foreign terrorist organisation” by the Trump administration.

The US Treasury on Wednesday unveiled a fresh swath of sanctions aimed at clamping down on the ability of the Revolutionary Guards to use shipping networks to evade American sanctions. Washington is also warning ports around the world that they are putting themselves at risk by accepting Iranian ships, partly because of the threat of US sanctions but also because Iranian vessels are no longer able to obtain international insurance. “We have been telling them that this is like a drunk driver driving without insurance and that they will be on the hook,” said the US official.

At the weekend, the tanker turned off its transponder in waters off the Syrian coast, making it harder to track. But the US, which is monitoring its movements via satellite, says it is close to the port of Tartus. It expects the ship to unload its crude via ship-to-ship transfers since Syrian ports are unable to accommodate such as large tanker.  The US viewed the UK as naive after it accepted Mr Zarif’s assurance that the ship was not bound for Syria. “It was a big mistake to trust Zarif,” Mr Pompeo said.

The US official said that if the ship delivered its cargo of 2.1m barrels of oil to Syria, it would “expose the Iranian regime for failing to keep its word” to the international community. “It will force the Iranians into the broad daylight,” the official said.

 
It is the worst, and the dumbest, administration I can recall.

Link to the FT article:
https://www.ft.com/content/20188064-cefb-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f
Just abhorrent.  I mean it’s actually repulsive that they’d have the nerve to label it ‘illicit oil’.  What?  How is it illicit for a country to trade oil with another country.  

Kind of an interesting note here, not to make it a Hillary thing either, Clinton also wanted to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization back in 2007.  Pompeo saying IRAN is the one that can’t be trusted.  

The absolute gall of these people, it’s unreal.  I keep trying to understand why the US pursues policy like this.  I imagine it must be a confluence of US oil interests and pro-Israel/anti-Iranian regime changers.   Very dark times.  

 
Just abhorrent.  I mean it’s actually repulsive that they’d have the nerve to label it ‘illicit oil’.  What?  How is it illicit for a country to trade oil with another country.  

Kind of an interesting note here, not to make it a Hillary thing either, Clinton also wanted to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization back in 2007.  Pompeo saying IRAN is the one that can’t be trusted.  

The absolute gall of these people, it’s unreal.  I keep trying to understand why the US pursues policy like this.  I imagine it must be a confluence of US oil interests and pro-Israel/anti-Iranian regime changers.   Very dark times.  
Yeah, the label isn’t the problematic part for me. 

 

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