Is Brady worth Drafting 3rd over all in redraft 6pts TD? (1 Viewer)

[jbalicki10]

I was thinking of flipping a coin between Westy and S. Jax when drafting third. However I think T. Brady could be a better value drafting him third.

1) Westbrook - Philly is very very stingy when reporting injuries and whether he is starting or not. It would be a crap shoot if he gets injured.

2) S. Jackson - Was injured by an ACL or MCL last year. The o-line was suspect as well. I don't think Pace will fix that line up. Or will it? Lots a questions here.

3) Brady is a safe bet for a QB. (Like P. Manning) If he could do 3/4 of what he did last year, he will still beat Westbrook and S. Jax in points being that TD's are 6pts for everyone.

I checked the draft dominator, and the VBD was in Brady's favor. However, I have always used the "Get cheap QBs in the late middle rounds". It works ok, but I miss out monster games from a big time QB.

Any ideas?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I was thinking of flipping a coin between Westy and S. Jax when drafting third. However I think T. Brady could be a better value drafting him third.1) Westbrook - Philly is very very stingy when reporting injuries and whether he is starting or not. It would be a crap shoot if he gets injured.2) S. Jackson - Was injured by an ACL or MCL last year. The o-line was suspect as well. I don't think Pace will fix that line up. Or will it? Lots a questions here.3) Brady is a safe bet for a QB. (Like P. Manning) If he could do 3/4 of what he did last year, he will still beat Westbrook and S. Jax in points being that TD's are 6pts for everyone.I checked the draft dominator, and the VBD was in Brady's favor. However, I have always used the "Get cheap QBs in the late middle rounds". It works ok, but I miss out monster games from a big time QB.Any ideas?

The only way I would even consider Brady anywhere near that high is if you start 2 QBs.

 

[EBF]

Don't chase last year's numbers. Guys who go off the hinges for a career year almost never match it the next season. See: Tomlinson, Alexander, Manning, Culpepper, etc.

What goes up must come down. That doesn't mean Brady shouldn't be the QB1, but I would lower my expectations and treat him roughly the same as I'd treat a healthy Manning.

 

[jbalicki10]

Don't chase last year's numbers. Guys who go off the hinges for a career year almost never match it the next season. See: Tomlinson, Alexander, Manning, Culpepper, etc. What goes up must come down. That doesn't mean Brady shouldn't be the QB1, but I would lower my expectations and treat him roughly the same as I'd treat a healthy Manning.

Your right... I did a double take. I'll flip a coin of Westy or S. Jax.

 

[None_More_Black]

I was thinking of flipping a coin between Westy and S. Jax when drafting third. However I think T. Brady could be a better value drafting him third.1) Westbrook - Philly is very very stingy when reporting injuries and whether he is starting or not. It would be a crap shoot if he gets injured.2) S. Jackson - Was injured by an ACL or MCL last year. The o-line was suspect as well. I don't think Pace will fix that line up. Or will it? Lots a questions here.3) Brady is a safe bet for a QB. (Like P. Manning) If he could do 3/4 of what he did last year, he will still beat Westbrook and S. Jax in points being that TD's are 6pts for everyone.I checked the draft dominator, and the VBD was in Brady's favor. However, I have always used the "Get cheap QBs in the late middle rounds". It works ok, but I miss out monster games from a big time QB.Any ideas?

I'm in the same boat in a big money 10 teamer. With only ten teams, I am really tempted to take Brady. I remember what happened to the guys who drafted manning and Culpepper after their big years so I am somewhat reluctant. Not sure what I'm going to do, leaning towards SJax because his 06 numbers represent a ceiling that I think Westbrook could never hit even though I think Westbrook is the better back.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Don't chase last year's numbers. Guys who go off the hinges for a career year almost never match it the next season. See: Tomlinson, Alexander, Manning, Culpepper, etc. What goes up must come down. That doesn't mean Brady shouldn't be the QB1, but I would lower my expectations and treat him roughly the same as I'd treat a healthy Manning.

Your right... I did a double take. I'll flip a coin of Westy or S. Jax.

Just make sure it ends up on Westy's side...

 

[JHuber77]

Why is Westbrook any more valuable than S. Jackson though? This 3rd pick this year is tough. I have it as well and am running the same thing through my head. LT and Peterson will be gone, so I am left with Westbrook, S. Jackson, or Brady. My league is no PPR, all TD's 6pts. 1 pt for 10 yards rush/rec.

 

[bcr8f]

Add Brady + player you would take in the 8th

and compare to

QB taken in the 8th(Schaub, DelHomme, Garrard) + top 3 RB.

What good RB can you get in the 8th round?

 

[ivnabru]

If the scoring is 1 point/passing yard I'd seriously consider Brady at 3. Otherwise probably not.

Manning was a 1st rounder in the past because he was the only guaranteed top 5 QB. Nowadays we probably have 3 QBs who are guaranteed top 5 in Brady/Peyton/Brees. Don't grab for Brady when you can get Brees 2-3 rounds later. And that's only if you're looking for a clear top 5 guy.

QBs are pretty notorious about big shifts in numbers from year to year. I'd be shocked if Brady didn't throw at least 15 less TDs this year and probably closer to 20.

 

[The Jacket]

Add Brady + player you would take in the 8th and compare toQB taken in the 8th(Schaub, DelHomme, Garrard) + top 3 RB.What good RB can you get in the 8th round?

Missing out on monster QB games sucks, but you'll get plenty of monster RB games and solid QB games. If you take Brady at No. 3, you might not see a monster RB game all year unless you get lucky.

 

[Marc Levin]

Everyone's covered this pretty well, but to add the flip side of the coin here - the likely reason our VBD app is now inflating Brady up into the top-5 on a lot of VBD charts is that Manning has fallen off in his EOY projections due to worries about his early season, Where there was Brady #1, Manning #2 <gap> Brees/Romo/Palmer it now goes Brady BIG GAP Manning/Brees/Romo/Palmer

It is similar to a situation where Reggie Wayne, TO, and Larry Fitz all got into a car accident that would cause them to miss the first two games of the season. The gap in EOY projections between them and Moss would be so great that Moss would vault into the top-5 overall in our VBD app.

The reason I bring this up is this: if you genuinely belive Brady will be THAT much better than any QB2, he is worth a pick that high. If any other QBs can approachhis numbers this year, he is not. It's the gap, not the actual numbers, that matter.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Add Brady + player you would take in the 8th and compare toQB taken in the 8th(Schaub, DelHomme, Garrard) + top 3 RB.What good RB can you get in the 8th round?

Missing out on monster QB games sucks, but you'll get plenty of monster RB games and solid QB games. If you take Brady at No. 3, you might not see a monster RB game all year unless you get lucky.

this isn't exactly a good argument though.if you go: QB RB RB RB WR WR WR WRversus: RB RB RB WR WR WR WR QBthe difference can be substantial. it depends on whether you are willing to give up DEPTH for a better starting lineup.

 

[Cass Durham]

Everyone's covered this pretty well, but to add the flip side of the coin here - the likely reason our VBD app is now inflating Brady up into the top-5 on a lot of VBD charts is that Manning has fallen off in his EOY projections due to worries about his early season, Where there wasABrady #1, Manning #2 <gap> Brees/Romo/Palmer it now goes Brady BIG GAP Manning/Brees/Romo/PalmerIt is similar to a situation where Reggie Wayne, TO, and Larry Fitz all got into a car accident that would cause them to miss the first two games of the season. The gap in EOY projections between them and Moss would be so great that Moss would vault into the top-5 overall in our VBD app.The reason I bring this up is this: if you genuinely belive Brady will be THAT much better than any QB2, he is worth a pick that high. If any other QBs can approachhis numbers this year, he is not. It's the gap, not the actual numbers, that matter.

Actually, Brady has been sitting at #2 behind LT well before the Manning knee surgery and Manning's EOY projections deflation.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Unless you expect Brady to throw 50 TDs again (highly unlikely, just look at history) then this is a horrible pick.

Getting a 4000/30 QB at the #3 overall pick practically a BUST.

 

[Sweet Love]

I know this is not the same, but I am in a mock draft right now and grabbed him at 8 just to see what would happen if I drafted Brady in the first round. I was able to get McGahee in the second, but you would probably be looking at Lewis, Turner, Grant or maroney for your first RB (not bad, not great). You mentioned you are not in a PPR (I think), so you would almost have to grab whoever is left out of that crew (if someone is left) or a Graham for your second RB in the third. If you don't, go RB in the third, you'll have to hope that someone like Jacobs falls to you in the late third or else you are getting into FWP territory for a second RB (which is not horrible, but I do not like him when your first is not a bona fide stud.

I lucked out in my mock (it is PPR) and was able to get Kevin Smith in the sixth round and may get Forte in the 7th (for my RB2 and RB3), but that is more of a result of how Antsports lists the players than where they would tradionally go. My point is that unless Brady goes off again for 35+ TDs, you are going to have to hope you have a very strong draft behind him, because you are likely to be behind all of the positional runs as you play catch up.

 

[None_More_Black]

I know this is not the same, but I am in a mock draft right now and grabbed him at 8 just to see what would happen if I drafted Brady in the first round. I was able to get McGahee in the second, but you would probably be looking at Lewis, Turner, Grant or maroney for your first RB (not bad, not great). You mentioned you are not in a PPR (I think), so you would almost have to grab whoever is left out of that crew (if someone is left) or a Graham for your second RB in the third. If you don't, go RB in the third, you'll have to hope that someone like Jacobs falls to you in the late third or else you are getting into FWP territory for a second RB (which is not horrible, but I do not like him when your first is not a bona fide stud.I lucked out in my mock (it is PPR) and was able to get Kevin Smith in the sixth round and may get Forte in the 7th (for my RB2 and RB3), but that is more of a result of how Antsports lists the players than where they would tradionally go. My point is that unless Brady goes off again for 35+ TDs, you are going to have to hope you have a very strong draft behind him, because you are likely to be behind all of the positional runs as you play catch up.

I agree with this, by taking Brady this early you will really lose control of your draft and are forced to take leftovers instead starting player runs. However, the guy who won my league last year had Brady and started bottom of the barrel rb2s and still was able to win comfortably. Having a qb who averages more then 3 tds a game will do that. It comes down to projections. If you think Brady can throw 45+ I think he is the right pick despite making your draft more complicated.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I did it... in a free league.

Scoring was Very, very QB and TD heavy. I also did the unthinkable and didn't draft an RB until the 4th, in a 14 teamer

Brady scored over 150 more than LT last yr in this league

Scoring

mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

Passing Yards (50 yards per point)

Passing Touchdowns (6)

Interceptions (-2)

Sacks (-1)

Rushing Yards (20 yards per point)

Rushing Touchdowns (6)

Reception Yards (20 yards per point)

Reception Touchdowns (6)*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

My Draft, My team came out ok

mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

Round Pick Player Position

1. (3) Tom Brady QB

2. (26) Steve Smith WR

3. (31) Marques Colston WR

4. (54) Thomas Jones RB

5. (59) Calvin Johnson WR

6. (82) Selvin Young RB

7. (87) Bernard Berrian WR

8. (110) Eli Manning QB

9. (115) Felix Jones RB

10. (138) Chris Johnson RB

11. (143) Jay Cutler QB

12. (166) Donald Lee TE

13. (171) Ronald Curry WR

14. (194) Adrian Peterson RB

15. (199) L.J. Smith TE

16. (222) Tampa Bay DEF

17. (227) Kris Brown K

18. (250) David Harris DL

19. (255) Barrett Ruud DL

20. (278) Tramon Williams DB

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

 

[FUBAR]

Add Brady + player you would take in the 8th and compare toQB taken in the 8th(Schaub, DelHomme, Garrard) + top 3 RB.What good RB can you get in the 8th round?

Missing out on monster QB games sucks, but you'll get plenty of monster RB games and solid QB games. If you take Brady at No. 3, you might not see a monster RB game all year unless you get lucky.

this isn't exactly a good argument though.if you go: QB RB RB RB WR WR WR WRversus: RB RB RB WR WR WR WR QBthe difference can be substantial. it depends on whether you are willing to give up DEPTH for a better starting lineup.

That gets more to the point. I don't know too many people who are drafting their starting RB in the 8th. Maybe Brady, 4th round RB, 8th round WRvs.West/SJ, 4th round WR, 8th round QB Makes a decent comparison

 

[Pickle Rody]

Maybe I'm just stubborn, but no way in helluva am I taking Brady over Westy or SJax. Never. No matter what type of league. Even dynasty.

 

[Lupe]

I got the #3 pick in a league where you can start a QB as flex (so essentially a 2QB league since you probably will always start 2 QB's). I am seriously considering Brady with the #3 pick. There are 4 flex players, so you can also only start 1 RB. Talk me out of picking Brady at #3 overall. I would then look at Garrard/Delhomme/Campbell as my 2nd and 3rd QB in rounds 8-10.

 

[GregR_2]

Add Brady + player you would take in the 8th and compare toQB taken in the 8th(Schaub, DelHomme, Garrard) + top 3 RB.What good RB can you get in the 8th round?

Missing out on monster QB games sucks, but you'll get plenty of monster RB games and solid QB games. If you take Brady at No. 3, you might not see a monster RB game all year unless you get lucky.

this isn't exactly a good argument though.if you go: QB RB RB RB WR WR WR WRversus: RB RB RB WR WR WR WR QBthe difference can be substantial. it depends on whether you are willing to give up DEPTH for a better starting lineup.

You've pretty much shown in a nutshell here what a proper draft strategy should be. People should figure out what the likely consequences are ON THEIR ENTIRE TEAM for any likely decisions they will face, before the draft.And as you point out, saying it's a Brady and an 8th round RB or SJax and an 8th round QB is too simplistic compared to the reality. Not only because you likely won't take your starting RB in the 8th, but because a lot of the other picks in between may get changed as well. You may find yourself needing to take your RB3 or RB4 earlier if you get a worse RB1 or RB2, pushing back several other positions by a round. You may find that one decision will give you added flexibility in some rounds to take advantage of players who have become a value by falling to that round, while other decisions would rope you into pretty much having to take a certain position there to avoid a drop off.

 

[twitch]

I just cant see Brady going in the 3 hole, and passing on a RB until pick 22. Not when I could draft Brees, Palmer, Romo and even Peyton so much later and still get very solid #s from any of those guys. The #1 FF QB changes literally just about every single year. I realize this is no REAL basis of fact or reason to expect Brady wont be #1 again, but Im just not betting against it. The #1 guy is likely to be someone other than Brady, imo. My guess this year would be Manning, considering how consistent he is from year to year. He'll have an absolutely ridiculous arsenal this year with Harrison back in the fold.

 

[twitch]

I got the #3 pick in a league where you can start a QB as flex (so essentially a 2QB league since you probably will always start 2 QB's). I am seriously considering Brady with the #3 pick. There are 4 flex players, so you can also only start 1 RB. Talk me out of picking Brady at #3 overall. I would then look at Garrard/Delhomme/Campbell as my 2nd and 3rd QB in rounds 8-10.

Brady at 3 in this format makes sense. And Im loving Delhomme this year, personally. Of course he has Steve Smith, but they also picked up DJ Hackett who I think has potential there. If Jarrett can actually do something, that passing game could be scary. Theyve got the 2 nice RBs in place for a pretty decent ground game, potentially. Garrard's prospects are a little worrisome right now, with the injuries/surgeries/issues those receivers are having. Good luck.

 

[Aussie Cowboy]

Experts are taking him at #1

 

[Phil Elliott]

Don't chase last year's numbers. Guys who go off the hinges for a career year almost never match it the next season. See: Tomlinson, Alexander, Manning, Culpepper, etc. What goes up must come down. That doesn't mean Brady shouldn't be the QB1, but I would lower my expectations and treat him roughly the same as I'd treat a healthy Manning.

Your right... I did a double take. I'll flip a coin of Westy or S. Jax.

So it looks like Brady is off the table for discussion now... I would give the edge to Westy over SJAX. I think Westy is going to be counted on even more this year. Even without PPR, I would take Westy over SJAX this year.

 

[ceo3west]

I was thinking of flipping a coin between Westy and S. Jax when drafting third. However I think T. Brady could be a better value drafting him third.1) Westbrook - Philly is very very stingy when reporting injuries and whether he is starting or not. It would be a crap shoot if he gets injured.2) S. Jackson - Was injured by an ACL or MCL last year. The o-line was suspect as well. I don't think Pace will fix that line up. Or will it? Lots a questions here.3) Brady is a safe bet for a QB. (Like P. Manning) If he could do 3/4 of what he did last year, he will still beat Westbrook and S. Jax in points being that TD's are 6pts for everyone.I checked the draft dominator, and the VBD was in Brady's favor. However, I have always used the "Get cheap QBs in the late middle rounds". It works ok, but I miss out monster games from a big time QB.Any ideas?

Taking Brady there is great if you count last year's numbers this year.Taking a QB in the first round never works out well, and it won't be any different this year IMO.

 

[Boston]

For all the speculation whether to draft Brady the key to this decision (IMO) is what you think his numbers will be. If you look at history QBs with monster years have traditionally taken a pretty big step backwards and have hurt owners who drafted them based on their previous year's numbers. This scenario seems to have almost turned into an equation with many subscribing to it as a gospel since the odds favor this happening regardless of who the QB is. On the flipside if you look at Brady you have a QB in a fantastic fantasy situation...in his prime, is very durable, a pass-first offense, tons of weapons, a topnotch O line and a coach who has zero issues going for the jugular (and what appears to be a favorable schedule). On paper Brady's situation is set up for big time fantasy success.

Therefore you need to put a projection in place. If you think Brady's going to go for 28-35 TDs you could be putting yourself in a tough spot because while those numbers are good they aren't blowing away other QBs and there's a good chance you're going to have exposure at other positions. The fact you'll probably be hindering your draft flexibility doesn't help either. If you think he's going to go for 40+ than I think he's a very legitimate pick since you'll be obtaining a player that will be producing big time points and will be able to win games by himself on a few weeks. The fact that the talent pool seems to be getting deeper at RB could also aid you as there appear to be more RBs with a chance to produce outside of the usual suspects.

The bottomline is do you think Brady's 2007 season is one of those once in a lifetime aberrations or do you see him continue to put up crazy numbers. There's a very legit case to be made for both sides...and how you feel (based on legit projections of Brady as well others you are considering) will greatly aid your decision.

 

[ceo3west]

For all the speculation whether to draft Brady the key to this decision (IMO) is what you think his numbers will be. If you look at history QBs with monster years have traditionally taken a pretty big step backwards and have hurt owners who drafted them based on their previous year's numbers. This scenario seems to have almost turned into an equation with many subscribing to it as a gospel since the odds favor this happening regardless of who the QB is. On the flipside if you look at Brady you have a QB in a fantastic fantasy situation...in his prime, a pass-first offense, tons of weapons, a topnotch O line and a coach who has zero issues going for the jugular (and what appears to be a favorable schedule). On paper Brady's situation is set up for big time fantasy success.Therefore you need to put a projection in place. If you think Brady's going to go for 28-35 TDs you could be putting yourself in a tough spot because while those numbers are good they aren't blowing away other QBs and there's a good chance you're going to have exposure at other positions. The fact you'll probably be hindering your draft flexibility doesn't help either. If you think he's going to go for 40+ than I think he's a very legitimate pick since you'll be obtaining a player that will be producing big time points and will be able to win games by himself on a few weeks. The fact that the talent pool seems to be getting deeper at RB could also aid you as there appear to be more RBs with a chance to produce outside of the usual suspects. The bottomline is do you think Brady's 2007 season is one of those once in a lifetime aberrations or do you see him continue to put up crazy numbers. There's a very legit case to be made for both sides...and how you feel (based on legit projections of Brady as well others you are considering) will greatly aid your decision.

This is exactly right. Also, Brady is set up for a repeat opf last year, but so was Manning & Marino after their big years. The one constant in FF is change, and this year is no different. Brady himself has been quoted as saying something to the effect of what worked last year for them won't necessarily work this season. Fantasy players expecting another record setting season or close to it are in for a dissapointment.

 

[Boston]

For all the speculation whether to draft Brady the key to this decision (IMO) is what you think his numbers will be. If you look at history QBs with monster years have traditionally taken a pretty big step backwards and have hurt owners who drafted them based on their previous year's numbers. This scenario seems to have almost turned into an equation with many subscribing to it as a gospel since the odds favor this happening regardless of who the QB is. On the flipside if you look at Brady you have a QB in a fantastic fantasy situation...in his prime, a pass-first offense, tons of weapons, a topnotch O line and a coach who has zero issues going for the jugular (and what appears to be a favorable schedule). On paper Brady's situation is set up for big time fantasy success.Therefore you need to put a projection in place. If you think Brady's going to go for 28-35 TDs you could be putting yourself in a tough spot because while those numbers are good they aren't blowing away other QBs and there's a good chance you're going to have exposure at other positions. The fact you'll probably be hindering your draft flexibility doesn't help either. If you think he's going to go for 40+ than I think he's a very legitimate pick since you'll be obtaining a player that will be producing big time points and will be able to win games by himself on a few weeks. The fact that the talent pool seems to be getting deeper at RB could also aid you as there appear to be more RBs with a chance to produce outside of the usual suspects. The bottomline is do you think Brady's 2007 season is one of those once in a lifetime aberrations or do you see him continue to put up crazy numbers. There's a very legit case to be made for both sides...and how you feel (based on legit projections of Brady as well others you are considering) will greatly aid your decision.

This is exactly right. Also, Brady is set up for a repeat opf last year, but so was Manning & Marino after their big years. The one constant in FF is change, and this year is no different. Brady himself has been quoted as saying something to the effect of what worked last year for them won't necessarily work this season. Fantasy players expecting another record setting season or close to it are in for a dissapointment.

What scares me is that I agree about the constant being change...and in this case the change could actually be a QB putting up the big numbers instead of falling back to the pack.

 

[twitch]

For all the speculation whether to draft Brady the key to this decision (IMO) is what you think his numbers will be. If you look at history QBs with monster years have traditionally taken a pretty big step backwards and have hurt owners who drafted them based on their previous year's numbers. This scenario seems to have almost turned into an equation with many subscribing to it as a gospel since the odds favor this happening regardless of who the QB is. On the flipside if you look at Brady you have a QB in a fantastic fantasy situation...in his prime, is very durable, a pass-first offense, tons of weapons, a topnotch O line and a coach who has zero issues going for the jugular (and what appears to be a favorable schedule). On paper Brady's situation is set up for big time fantasy success.Therefore you need to put a projection in place. If you think Brady's going to go for 28-35 TDs you could be putting yourself in a tough spot because while those numbers are good they aren't blowing away other QBs and there's a good chance you're going to have exposure at other positions. The fact you'll probably be hindering your draft flexibility doesn't help either. If you think he's going to go for 40+ than I think he's a very legitimate pick since you'll be obtaining a player that will be producing big time points and will be able to win games by himself on a few weeks. The fact that the talent pool seems to be getting deeper at RB could also aid you as there appear to be more RBs with a chance to produce outside of the usual suspects. The bottomline is do you think Brady's 2007 season is one of those once in a lifetime aberrations or do you see him continue to put up crazy numbers. There's a very legit case to be made for both sides...and how you feel (based on legit projections of Brady as well others you are considering) will greatly aid your decision.

Boston, I just cant get enough of your takes. No matter how rare they seem to come these days. Stay active this season.

 

[theToes]

I'm glad someone put thios question out there because I am in the same boat of deciding whether to pick Brady in the 1st round (5th overall).

My league scoring system is very qb friendly and qb's go fast.

all td's 6

1 pt 25 yds rush/pass/rec

ppr

It's not unusual to see 6 or 7 qb's go off the board by the end of round 2.

Based on this scoring system there were 2 Rb's in the top 30 last season.

I'm thinking brady and a mid level rb may not be a bad way to go in the 1st and 2nd round this year in my league.

 

[Boston]

For all the speculation whether to draft Brady the key to this decision (IMO) is what you think his numbers will be. If you look at history QBs with monster years have traditionally taken a pretty big step backwards and have hurt owners who drafted them based on their previous year's numbers. This scenario seems to have almost turned into an equation with many subscribing to it as a gospel since the odds favor this happening regardless of who the QB is. On the flipside if you look at Brady you have a QB in a fantastic fantasy situation...in his prime, is very durable, a pass-first offense, tons of weapons, a topnotch O line and a coach who has zero issues going for the jugular (and what appears to be a favorable schedule). On paper Brady's situation is set up for big time fantasy success.Therefore you need to put a projection in place. If you think Brady's going to go for 28-35 TDs you could be putting yourself in a tough spot because while those numbers are good they aren't blowing away other QBs and there's a good chance you're going to have exposure at other positions. The fact you'll probably be hindering your draft flexibility doesn't help either. If you think he's going to go for 40+ than I think he's a very legitimate pick since you'll be obtaining a player that will be producing big time points and will be able to win games by himself on a few weeks. The fact that the talent pool seems to be getting deeper at RB could also aid you as there appear to be more RBs with a chance to produce outside of the usual suspects. The bottomline is do you think Brady's 2007 season is one of those once in a lifetime aberrations or do you see him continue to put up crazy numbers. There's a very legit case to be made for both sides...and how you feel (based on legit projections of Brady as well others you are considering) will greatly aid your decision.

Boston, I just cant get enough of your takes. No matter how rare they seem to come these days. Stay active this season.

Thanks Twitch...hopefully there will be a little more activity in the Pats thread as it's been pretty slow the last few months.

 

[ceo3west]

What scares me is that I agree about the constant being change...and in this case the change could actually be a QB putting up the big numbers instead of falling back to the pack.

It very well could happen that way, but I'm not gambling a first round pick that it will...

 

[Judge Smails]

I also have the #3 pick in a 12 team redraft, no PPR, all TD's 6 points league (1 QB start). As sexy as it is to have Brady on your roster, I'm leaning towards Westbrook. Mostly because in a coin flip between SJax and Westy I like Westy's schedule MUCH better. He's poised for a monster year. Sure, you'd have to deal with him being questionable every week, but this year more than any I think there are injury question marks with most of the big backs. LT got tweaked for the first time last year. ADP has had his issues. SJax injured last year, etc. No safe bets out there. So Brady is intriguing. I do think defenses will adjust and his numbers will come down, but they will still throw a ton. I do have a feeling that they may not pass when up 52-7 with 2 minutes left this year, so his numbers will be deflated for that reason alone. Still, he's looking at 35+ TD's and a ton of yards.

Still - I can't pull the trigger on any QB that early. Looking back in our league's history, I don't think anybody's ever won with the #1 rated QB. In the old days, Favre, Steve Young etc routinely went #1 overall. Lots of owners took Peyton in the first round. None ever walked away with the title. I don't think that's coincidence.

Plus - I really don't like having a guy who might be trying to throw in a blizzard in the playoffs be my best hope for points when it really matters.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Maybe I'm just stubborn, but no way in helluva am I taking Brady over Westy or SJax. Never. No matter what type of league. Even dynasty.

Try a 2 QB league

 

[Cass Durham]

What is unique in this situation is the fact that we are talking about the best QB/WR combo EVER. And I mean EVER. And they accomplished what they did last year in their first year of working together. Could they build better chemistry?

Brady and Moss have always been good at putting up stats even without the best surrounding talent. Moss put up some great stats with Culpepper tossing up the rock to him. Brady put up 28 TDs in a year in which his best WRs left to free agency. But after last year we all saw what 2 of the best at their position EVER can do when put on the same team.

There is absolutely no reason why Brady won't put up 40+ TDs this year in that offense minus an injury to Brady or Moss. And in a QB heavy league, Brady is a no-brainer at #2 overall. Yes, it feels weird not taking a RB that early, but when your QB scores as much as your stud RB and a WR combined... I mean, come on. There is your flexibility.

 

[twitch]

What is unique in this situation is the fact that we are talking about the best QB/WR combo EVER. And I mean EVER. And they accomplished what they did last year in their first year of working together. Could they build better chemistry?

Brady and Moss have always been good at putting up stats even without the best surrounding talent. Moss put up some great stats with Culpepper tossing up the rock to him. Brady put up 28 TDs in a year in which his best WRs left to free agency. But after last year we all saw what 2 of the best at their position EVER can do when put on the same team.

There is absolutely no reason why Brady won't put up 40+ TDs this year in that offense minus an injury to Brady or Moss. And in a QB heavy league, Brady is a no-brainer at #2 overall. Yes, it feels weird not taking a RB that early, but when your QB scores as much as your stud RB and a WR combined... I mean, come on. There is your flexibility.

Words like "absolutely no reason" fall into the 'famous last words' category. Do you really think there is zero chance New England throws everyone a curve ball this year and actually returns to offensive balance? For my money, the bottom line is winning the Superbowl. And the 50TDs and the offensive fireworks all season didnt contribute to them winning a Superbowl. People can argue all day about whether that's relevant, but its a fact. Theyve won 3 Superbowls with offensive balance and NOT relying on any one person or formula to win. They were too one dimensional last year. Brady got a little dinged in the SD game, the Oline has a bad day at the office and its game over. Brady dropped back to pass over 50 times in the Superbowl. A game they led most of the way, and only lost by 3. That's just absurd.

Things are changing this season. Itll take seeing to make believers out of people, but count on some balance. Im not saying 40TDs isnt possible. Imo, it just isnt likely.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Maybe I'm just stubborn, but no way in helluva am I taking Brady over Westy or SJax. Never. No matter what type of league. Even dynasty.

Try a 2 QB league

I'd still wait in a start 2QB league. I'll take two QB's later to put up decent stats each week instead of shooting myself in the foot at RB or WR early.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Maybe I'm just stubborn, but no way in helluva am I taking Brady over Westy or SJax. Never. No matter what type of league. Even dynasty.

Try a 2 QB league

I'd still wait in a start 2QB league. I'll take two QB's later to put up decent stats each week instead of shooting myself in the foot at RB or WR early.

But then you'd be shooting yourself in the foot at qb. And qb's typically score more than any other position.

 

[sprtbuf]

What is unique in this situation is the fact that we are talking about the best QB/WR combo EVER. And I mean EVER. And they accomplished what they did last year in their first year of working together. Could they build better chemistry?

Brady and Moss have always been good at putting up stats even without the best surrounding talent. Moss put up some great stats with Culpepper tossing up the rock to him. Brady put up 28 TDs in a year in which his best WRs left to free agency. But after last year we all saw what 2 of the best at their position EVER can do when put on the same team.

There is absolutely no reason why Brady won't put up 40+ TDs this year in that offense minus an injury to Brady or Moss. And in a QB heavy league, Brady is a no-brainer at #2 overall. Yes, it feels weird not taking a RB that early, but when your QB scores as much as your stud RB and a WR combined... I mean, come on. There is your flexibility.

Words like "absolutely no reason" fall into the 'famous last words' category. Do you really think there is zero chance New England throws everyone a curve ball this year and actually returns to offensive balance?

For my money, the bottom line is winning the Superbowl. And the 50TDs and the offensive fireworks all season didnt contribute to them winning a Superbowl. People can argue all day about whether that's relevant, but its a fact. Theyve won 3 Superbowls with offensive balance and NOT relying on any one person or formula to win. They were too one dimensional last year. Brady got a little dinged in the SD game, the Oline has a bad day at the office and its game over. Brady dropped back to pass over 50 times in the Superbowl. A game they led most of the way, and only lost by 3. That's just absurd.

Things are changing this season. Itll take seeing to make believers out of people, but count on some balance. Im not saying 40TDs isnt possible. Imo, it just isnt likely.

In those winning Superbowl years, they were one of the better/best teams, and they had a real running back named Dillon. Last year they were a historic team far and away above everyone else, going undefeated until the last game of the year playing a team of destiny. I would suspect they'd rather be like last year and win every game going into the Super Bowl, than having a balanced offense and not be as dominate.Their ground game has not been upgraded like the air attack the year prior. Lamont/Sammy/Larry won't cut it to have a balanced attack. It will be a 70-30 split in air to ground with Brady passing for the 44's (4400/44).

I also draft 3rd in a redraft. QBs also dominate our top ten list of best performers at year's end. I would take Brady in a heartbeat after LT and AD.

 

[twitch]

What is unique in this situation is the fact that we are talking about the best QB/WR combo EVER. And I mean EVER. And they accomplished what they did last year in their first year of working together. Could they build better chemistry?

Brady and Moss have always been good at putting up stats even without the best surrounding talent. Moss put up some great stats with Culpepper tossing up the rock to him. Brady put up 28 TDs in a year in which his best WRs left to free agency. But after last year we all saw what 2 of the best at their position EVER can do when put on the same team.

There is absolutely no reason why Brady won't put up 40+ TDs this year in that offense minus an injury to Brady or Moss. And in a QB heavy league, Brady is a no-brainer at #2 overall. Yes, it feels weird not taking a RB that early, but when your QB scores as much as your stud RB and a WR combined... I mean, come on. There is your flexibility.

Words like "absolutely no reason" fall into the 'famous last words' category. Do you really think there is zero chance New England throws everyone a curve ball this year and actually returns to offensive balance?

For my money, the bottom line is winning the Superbowl. And the 50TDs and the offensive fireworks all season didnt contribute to them winning a Superbowl. People can argue all day about whether that's relevant, but its a fact. Theyve won 3 Superbowls with offensive balance and NOT relying on any one person or formula to win. They were too one dimensional last year. Brady got a little dinged in the SD game, the Oline has a bad day at the office and its game over. Brady dropped back to pass over 50 times in the Superbowl. A game they led most of the way, and only lost by 3. That's just absurd.

Things are changing this season. Itll take seeing to make believers out of people, but count on some balance. Im not saying 40TDs isnt possible. Imo, it just isnt likely.

In those winning Superbowl years, they were one of the better/best teams, and they had a real running back named Dillon. Last year they were a historic team far and away above everyone else, going undefeated until the last game of the year playing a team of destiny. I would suspect they'd rather be like last year and win every game going into the Super Bowl, than having a balanced offense and not be as dominate.Their ground game has not been upgraded like the air attack the year prior. Lamont/Sammy/Larry won't cut it to have a balanced attack. It will be a 70-30 split in air to ground with Brady passing for the 44's (4400/44).

I also draft 3rd in a redraft. QBs also dominate our top ten list of best performers at year's end. I would take Brady in a heartbeat after LT and AD.

70/30? It was a little under 60 last year. During the record season. So, they get a RB back who missed 13 games last year, and just added Lamont Jordan. Now, I understand NO upgrade compares to adding Randy Moss. But theyve clearly upgraded their running game. The ratio youre suggesting is a little nuts.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Maybe I'm just stubborn, but no way in helluva am I taking Brady over Westy or SJax. Never. No matter what type of league. Even dynasty.

Try a 2 QB league

I'd still wait in a start 2QB league. I'll take two QB's later to put up decent stats each week instead of shooting myself in the foot at RB or WR early.

But then you'd be shooting yourself in the foot at qb. And qb's typically score more than any other position.

Exactly. You can't have it both ways in a 2QB league. If you wait on QBs to get WR or RB, then you'll be stuck with starting Kyle Orton and Chris Redman.

 

[Geaux Cowboys]

In this case, I go with gut instinct over past facts as my basis. What did I see last year?

I saw an offense that nobody figured out (or moreso nobody had the matchups in their favor or really near even across the board) until a great pressuring front 4 in the Superbowl slowed it down. I saw an angry little jerk on the sidelines orchestrating the whole thing, running up scores and turning himself into more of a genius than even his ego exudes. I saw a team of destiny in all facets motor along through the season, only to have it destroyed in the pinnacle game.

What will we see this year? An even angrier hooded psycho genius on the sidelines, trying to finish what he started last year. Ready to scheme even more to better 2007, and preparing to truly go undefeated.

I don't believe we will see a team that sits on the ball if they're up 30...I believe they will look to score 40 on every team if they can. If they went undefeated last year, I could see Bellicheck taking his foot off the throttle even if he didn't admit it...but they didn't accomplish everything they set out to accomplish yet. I do NOT see Brady dropping off this year...no matter how Marino or Manning or anyone has done in the past. I EXPECT 40+ TD's, with a ceiling of just over 50 again. Brady is accurate. Moss is truly uncoverable without 2 blankets. Welker finds the spots in the D. One of Gaffney, Jackson or Washington will have a big game almost every game this year due to lack of coverage...and that's if say Chad Jackson doesn't turn the light switch on and break out into being a 1st round talent at WR that he is. Maroney and Faulk have good hands and the ability to rack up yardage after the catch with safeties playing deep. Ben Watson and Marcus Pollard add even another element. The O-Line is in tact and gives Brady all day to pick and choose how he wants to beat you.

I would take Brady #3, grab RB's in the 20's, and don't look back. Nobody likes bucking trends, and we all know RB's are the value early on typically...but this is one case that my instinct will lead me to take Brady if I have the chance that early.

 

[Pickle Rody]

I just don't recall seeing any conversation like this after Mannings record breaking year. So why now? Why this year? There was no dispute as to whether Manning was worth the #3 overall after his huge year. He was not. Everyone expected a fall-back year down to average Manning numbers. That is exactly what folks got. For all of you thinking Brady is worth it as the #3 pick O/A.......GO FOR IT. Especially in any league I play in!!

And as far as start 2QB leagues.....(I probably don't know much about the pre-draft ranking structure as I've never really looked at that scenario, or played in one)......to revise my earlier statement, I'll never draft Brady ahead of Westy / SJax in any league except maybe start 2QB leagues.

 

[tombonneau]

This doesn't really say whether or not he is worth the #3, but I have #8 in a 14-team 6pt Passing TD and in doing mocks am experimenting what it looks like if Brady is there and I take him. My team thus far (bearing in mind that in mocks RBs seem to go much faster than they do in my actual real draft):

1 - QB Brady

2 - WR Wayne

3 - RB Willie Parker

4 - RB Edge

5 - WR M. Harrison

6 - TE T. Gonzaelez

I think the key with taking Brady in the first is looking at the RBs that are available later on. And frankly, I think there is are plenty of good RBs available in Rounds 3 & 4. In a 12 team league this is even more true.

In my other mocks, going with a RB in the first I find the team looks much weaker on paper.

I'll have no problem taking Brady in the first. To me, you can't win your league in the first, but you can lose it. And there are too many shaky RBs in the first.

 

[ceo3west]

I just don't recall seeing any conversation like this after Mannings record breaking year. So why now? Why this year? There was no dispute as to whether Manning was worth the #3 overall after his huge year. He was not. Everyone expected a fall-back year down to average Manning numbers. That is exactly what folks got. For all of you thinking Brady is worth it as the #3 pick O/A.......GO FOR IT. Especially in any league I play in!!

And as far as start 2QB leagues.....(I probably don't know much about the pre-draft ranking structure as I've never really looked at that scenario, or played in one)......to revise my earlier statement, I'll never draft Brady ahead of Westy / SJax in any league except maybe start 2QB leagues.

This is simply untrue - many folks were considering him a first round pick the year after he threw 49 TD's. This thread discusses it at length the year after manning threw 49, and there were many who beleived he was worth the pick.The bottom line is that in order to justify a first round pick, Brady almost certainly will need to throw 40 TD's and everything will need to break right for the Pats again. Be careful about taking Brady in the first - one thing about the NFL is for certain - if it seems obvious, it's obvioulsy wrong. You can spend your first round pick gambling that Brady becomes the second QB to even throw 35 TD's in back to back years, but if he doesn't then your finished. I'd rather get the RB and then take a safe QB later, knowing he doesn't have to carry my team in order to win.

 

[greyone]

IIRC, 24 of top 30 players in 6pt TD non ppr leagues are quarterbacks.

24 of the top 30. After considering the "GAP" Marc Levin mentioned, there are alot of qbs to select from. 24 minus brady, peyton, romo and brees leaves 20 other qbs who are top 30 scorers.

Something to chew on.

 

[tombonneau]

I just don't recall seeing any conversation like this after Mannings record breaking year. So why now? Why this year? There was no dispute as to whether Manning was worth the #3 overall after his huge year. He was not. Everyone expected a fall-back year down to average Manning numbers. That is exactly what folks got. For all of you thinking Brady is worth it as the #3 pick O/A.......GO FOR IT. Especially in any league I play in!!

And as far as start 2QB leagues.....(I probably don't know much about the pre-draft ranking structure as I've never really looked at that scenario, or played in one)......to revise my earlier statement, I'll never draft Brady ahead of Westy / SJax in any league except maybe start 2QB leagues.

This is simply untrue - many folks were considering him a first round pick the year after he threw 49 TD's. This thread discusses it at length the year after manning threw 49, and there were many who beleived he was worth the pick.The bottom line is that in order to justify a first round pick, Brady almost certainly will need to throw 40 TD's and everything will need to break right for the Pats again. Be careful about taking Brady in the first - one thing about the NFL is for certain - if it seems obvious, it's obvioulsy wrong. You can spend your first round pick gambling that Brady becomes the second QB to even throw 35 TD's in back to back years, but if he doesn't then your finished. I'd rather get the RB and then take a safe QB later, knowing he doesn't have to carry my team in order to win.

See, I don't agree that he needs to throw 40 TDs to justify a first round pick. Top 3 or 4, *maybe*, but part of picking Brady in the first -- and before him Manning -- is that you are very likely to get a consistent top producer. i.e. barring injuries you are getting a Top 3 QB (in the last 5 years, the lowest Manning has finished is #3).So you are somewhat paying a slight premium for a near guarantee top producer. And you can't say that about the RBs, you'd be taking in the middle first.

Gore? Portis? Barber? Give me a QB who I know will be top 3 with a realistic upside of 40+ TDs over any of those RBs any day of the week.

ETA: Another benefit is the opportunity cost of not having to select a backup QB until the very end, and after the bye you really don't even need a roster spot for another QB.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I saw an offense that nobody figured out.

Philly and Baltimore did. But both couldn't get it done on offense in their games. The Giants used the blueprints from those games in the SB. More teams will be taking that approach this year.

 

[Judge Smails]

Since we agree that VBD says you don't take Brady at #3 - is it Westy or SJax in a non-ppr? Discussion on SOS between the two?