Is Brady worth Drafting 3rd over all in redraft 6pts TD? (1 Viewer)

[Alias]

How early would you consider taking Brady in a 16 team league? Assume all other picks are RB's until your 2nd pick (at least that is what happened to me last year when I took Manning at 11).

 

[tombonneau]

How early would you consider taking Brady in a 16 team league? Assume all other picks are RB's until your 2nd pick (at least that is what happened to me last year when I took Manning at 11).

Tough call. I was in a competitive 16-team league for awhile that starts 2 RB (and is only 3pt QB TD) and everyone drafts RBs the first two rounds and if you don't fall in line you have to get real lucky later on. If it's a start 2RB I wouldn't draft anything but a RB in the first, but if it's 1RB 2WR 1Flex, I think you have more wiggle room and I'd consider him late first assuming you can get a guy like MJDrew or someone at the top of the second.

 

[Alias]

How early would you consider taking Brady in a 16 team league? Assume all other picks are RB's until your 2nd pick (at least that is what happened to me last year when I took Manning at 11).

Tough call. I was in a competitive 16-team league for awhile that starts 2 RB (and is only 3pt QB TD) and everyone drafts RBs the first two rounds and if you don't fall in line you have to get real lucky later on. If it's a start 2RB I wouldn't draft anything but a RB in the first, but if it's 1RB 2WR 1Flex, I think you have more wiggle room and I'd consider him late first assuming you can get a guy like MJDrew or someone at the top of the second.

it is start 2 RB's which is bonkers (IMO), but pass TD's are 6 and Int's were -3.

 

[RICK ROMO]

Tell me if this is crazy or not. I have the #1 pick in our 12 team league this yr. 6pts for all TD's 1 pt for 25 yds passing and 1 pt for every 3 completions. the RB's get 6 pts for all TD's and 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing or rec. I am actually thinking about taking Brady @ 1. Have I lost my mind? Last year Brady had 720 pts and LT had 336 pts in our league and I fully expect Brady to post monster stats again. I just don't know if the trade off would be worth it. I would have Brady and then a much lesser quality of RB or LT and say Brees or Palmer.

 

[moderated]

Tell me if this is crazy or not. I have the #1 pick in our 12 team league this yr. 6pts for all TD's 1 pt for 25 yds passing and 1 pt for every 3 completions. the RB's get 6 pts for all TD's and 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing or rec. I am actually thinking about taking Brady @ 1. Have I lost my mind? Last year Brady had 720 pts and LT had 336 pts in our league and I fully expect Brady to post monster stats again. I just don't know if the trade off would be worth it. I would have Brady and then a much lesser quality of RB or LT and say Brees or Palmer.

In that league format i couldn't fault you for taking Brady at the 4/5ish pick, but i don't think you can pass on LT/AD at #1.

 

[RICK ROMO]

Tell me if this is crazy or not. I have the #1 pick in our 12 team league this yr. 6pts for all TD's 1 pt for 25 yds passing and 1 pt for every 3 completions. the RB's get 6 pts for all TD's and 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing or rec. I am actually thinking about taking Brady @ 1. Have I lost my mind? Last year Brady had 720 pts and LT had 336 pts in our league and I fully expect Brady to post monster stats again. I just don't know if the trade off would be worth it. I would have Brady and then a much lesser quality of RB or LT and say Brees or Palmer.

In that league format i couldn't fault you for taking Brady at the 4/5ish pick, but i don't think you can pass on LT/AD at #1.

You are probably right but neither RB comes w/o question marks this year. Both were hurt last year and LT didn't even have surgery to fix his injury. Granted he has been very durable and Brady could get hurt just as well. I am still trying to get input on this for it to make better sense to me. There is a 5 pt bonus @ 300 yds passing and a 5 pt bonus @ 100 yds rushing plus a 5 pt bonus for a TD thrown, ran, or caught between 50-99 yds.

 

[moderated]

Tell me if this is crazy or not. I have the #1 pick in our 12 team league this yr. 6pts for all TD's 1 pt for 25 yds passing and 1 pt for every 3 completions. the RB's get 6 pts for all TD's and 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing or rec. I am actually thinking about taking Brady @ 1. Have I lost my mind? Last year Brady had 720 pts and LT had 336 pts in our league and I fully expect Brady to post monster stats again. I just don't know if the trade off would be worth it. I would have Brady and then a much lesser quality of RB or LT and say Brees or Palmer.

In that league format i couldn't fault you for taking Brady at the 4/5ish pick, but i don't think you can pass on LT/AD at #1.

You are probably right but neither RB comes w/o question marks this year. Both were hurt last year and LT didn't even have surgery to fix his injury. Granted he has been very durable and Brady could get hurt just as well. I am still trying to get input on this for it to make better sense to me. There is a 5 pt bonus @ 300 yds passing and a 5 pt bonus @ 100 yds rushing plus a 5 pt bonus for a TD thrown, ran, or caught between 50-99 yds.

what was the difference between Brady and guys like Palmer last year in that scoring format?

 

[RICK ROMO]

Tell me if this is crazy or not. I have the #1 pick in our 12 team league this yr. 6pts for all TD's 1 pt for 25 yds passing and 1 pt for every 3 completions. the RB's get 6 pts for all TD's and 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing or rec. I am actually thinking about taking Brady @ 1. Have I lost my mind? Last year Brady had 720 pts and LT had 336 pts in our league and I fully expect Brady to post monster stats again. I just don't know if the trade off would be worth it. I would have Brady and then a much lesser quality of RB or LT and say Brees or Palmer.

In that league format i couldn't fault you for taking Brady at the 4/5ish pick, but i don't think you can pass on LT/AD at #1.

You are probably right but neither RB comes w/o question marks this year. Both were hurt last year and LT didn't even have surgery to fix his injury. Granted he has been very durable and Brady could get hurt just as well. I am still trying to get input on this for it to make better sense to me. There is a 5 pt bonus @ 300 yds passing and a 5 pt bonus @ 100 yds rushing plus a 5 pt bonus for a TD thrown, ran, or caught between 50-99 yds.

what was the difference between Brady and guys like Palmer last year in that scoring format?

Brady~728Romo~480--2nd bestManning~474Farve~470Brees~455Hass~427Palmer~408

 

[moderated]

Tell me if this is crazy or not. I have the #1 pick in our 12 team league this yr. 6pts for all TD's 1 pt for 25 yds passing and 1 pt for every 3 completions. the RB's get 6 pts for all TD's and 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing or rec. I am actually thinking about taking Brady @ 1. Have I lost my mind? Last year Brady had 720 pts and LT had 336 pts in our league and I fully expect Brady to post monster stats again. I just don't know if the trade off would be worth it. I would have Brady and then a much lesser quality of RB or LT and say Brees or Palmer.

In that league format i couldn't fault you for taking Brady at the 4/5ish pick, but i don't think you can pass on LT/AD at #1.

You are probably right but neither RB comes w/o question marks this year. Both were hurt last year and LT didn't even have surgery to fix his injury. Granted he has been very durable and Brady could get hurt just as well. I am still trying to get input on this for it to make better sense to me. There is a 5 pt bonus @ 300 yds passing and a 5 pt bonus @ 100 yds rushing plus a 5 pt bonus for a TD thrown, ran, or caught between 50-99 yds.

what was the difference between Brady and guys like Palmer last year in that scoring format?

Brady~728Romo~480--2nd bestManning~474Farve~470Brees~455Hass~427Palmer~408

Wow, i obviously don't think Brady will repeat last season, but he should be able to put up 80% of his last years numbers which would have gave him 582. But even so LT will probably outscore the RB you get in the next round by quite a bit plus going RB instead of QB 1st gives you more flexibility throughout the rest of the draft.i'd still go LT or AD, but i wouldn't call you an idiot for going Brady.

 

[ceo3west]

I just don't recall seeing any conversation like this after Mannings record breaking year. So why now? Why this year? There was no dispute as to whether Manning was worth the #3 overall after his huge year. He was not. Everyone expected a fall-back year down to average Manning numbers. That is exactly what folks got. For all of you thinking Brady is worth it as the #3 pick O/A.......GO FOR IT. Especially in any league I play in!!

And as far as start 2QB leagues.....(I probably don't know much about the pre-draft ranking structure as I've never really looked at that scenario, or played in one)......to revise my earlier statement, I'll never draft Brady ahead of Westy / SJax in any league except maybe start 2QB leagues.

This is simply untrue - many folks were considering him a first round pick the year after he threw 49 TD's. This thread discusses it at length the year after manning threw 49, and there were many who beleived he was worth the pick.The bottom line is that in order to justify a first round pick, Brady almost certainly will need to throw 40 TD's and everything will need to break right for the Pats again. Be careful about taking Brady in the first - one thing about the NFL is for certain - if it seems obvious, it's obvioulsy wrong. You can spend your first round pick gambling that Brady becomes the second QB to even throw 35 TD's in back to back years, but if he doesn't then your finished. I'd rather get the RB and then take a safe QB later, knowing he doesn't have to carry my team in order to win.

See, I don't agree that he needs to throw 40 TDs to justify a first round pick. Top 3 or 4, *maybe*, but part of picking Brady in the first -- and before him Manning -- is that you are very likely to get a consistent top producer. i.e. barring injuries you are getting a Top 3 QB (in the last 5 years, the lowest Manning has finished is #3).So you are somewhat paying a slight premium for a near guarantee top producer. And you can't say that about the RBs, you'd be taking in the middle first.

Gore? Portis? Barber? Give me a QB who I know will be top 3 with a realistic upside of 40+ TDs over any of those RBs any day of the week.

ETA: Another benefit is the opportunity cost of not having to select a backup QB until the very end, and after the bye you really don't even need a roster spot for another QB.

It's all about value, and the fact is that last year's numbers don't count and you're banking on Brady's value from last year. Not only would you have to get that value from last year, but your RB1 & RB2 will need to pan out because they are really both RB2/RB3 material because of where you're most likely drafting them.Numbers don't lie, and the numbers say Brady won't come close to the value he represented last year.

 

[Marc Levin]

Everyone's covered this pretty well, but to add the flip side of the coin here - the likely reason our VBD app is now inflating Brady up into the top-5 on a lot of VBD charts is that Manning has fallen off in his EOY projections due to worries about his early season, Where there wasABrady #1, Manning #2 <gap> Brees/Romo/Palmer it now goes Brady BIG GAP Manning/Brees/Romo/PalmerIt is similar to a situation where Reggie Wayne, TO, and Larry Fitz all got into a car accident that would cause them to miss the first two games of the season. The gap in EOY projections between them and Moss would be so great that Moss would vault into the top-5 overall in our VBD app.The reason I bring this up is this: if you genuinely belive Brady will be THAT much better than any QB2, he is worth a pick that high. If any other QBs can approachhis numbers this year, he is not. It's the gap, not the actual numbers, that matter.

Actually, Brady has been sitting at #2 behind LT well before the Manning knee surgery and Manning's EOY projections deflation.

Change some scoring and some lineup and the VBD app changes where Brady sits, but I understand your point.

 

[Redhot Poker]

I'm in a similar boat. League is QB weighted with 6 pt TDs and 1 pt per 15 passing yards. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, K, and 11 IDP players. No PPR. Draft Dominator has 4 QBs in top 9, with Brady at #1 with VBD of 164. LT #2 at 141. I have #1 pick.

Opinions? Do I stick with traditional drafting and take the top rated RB, or side with the Draft Dominator and the significant VBD margin?

 

[Cass Durham]

Since we agree that VBD says you don't take Brady at #3 - is it Westy or SJax in a non-ppr? Discussion on SOS between the two?

Actually, in a 6pt TD league, the VBD says to take Brady #2.....and #3 in PPR. And I agree.

 

[Cass Durham]

What is unique in this situation is the fact that we are talking about the best QB/WR combo EVER. And I mean EVER. And they accomplished what they did last year in their first year of working together. Could they build better chemistry?

Brady and Moss have always been good at putting up stats even without the best surrounding talent. Moss put up some great stats with Culpepper tossing up the rock to him. Brady put up 28 TDs in a year in which his best WRs left to free agency. But after last year we all saw what 2 of the best at their position EVER can do when put on the same team.

There is absolutely no reason why Brady won't put up 40+ TDs this year in that offense minus an injury to Brady or Moss. And in a QB heavy league, Brady is a no-brainer at #2 overall. Yes, it feels weird not taking a RB that early, but when your QB scores as much as your stud RB and a WR combined... I mean, come on. There is your flexibility.

Words like "absolutely no reason" fall into the 'famous last words' category. Do you really think there is zero chance New England throws everyone a curve ball this year and actually returns to offensive balance?

For my money, the bottom line is winning the Superbowl. And the 50TDs and the offensive fireworks all season didnt contribute to them winning a Superbowl. People can argue all day about whether that's relevant, but its a fact. Theyve won 3 Superbowls with offensive balance and NOT relying on any one person or formula to win. They were too one dimensional last year. Brady got a little dinged in the SD game, the Oline has a bad day at the office and its game over. Brady dropped back to pass over 50 times in the Superbowl. A game they led most of the way, and only lost by 3. That's just absurd.

Things are changing this season. Itll take seeing to make believers out of people, but count on some balance. Im not saying 40TDs isnt possible. Imo, it just isnt likely.

With a healthy Maroney, yes there should be "more" balance on O this year. That's why I am projecting a return to about 4200 yards for Brady. But with a Randy Moss catching passes, Tom Brady will still have around 40 TDs because of Moss' incredible redzone talents. No matter what happens, they will still be a pass-first offense this year just as they always have. It works. It works well. The only difference between last year and years past was the fact that Brady finally had true weapons at WR.

 

[Cass Durham]

Everyone's covered this pretty well, but to add the flip side of the coin here - the likely reason our VBD app is now inflating Brady up into the top-5 on a lot of VBD charts is that Manning has fallen off in his EOY projections due to worries about his early season, Where there wasABrady #1, Manning #2 <gap> Brees/Romo/Palmer it now goes Brady BIG GAP Manning/Brees/Romo/PalmerIt is similar to a situation where Reggie Wayne, TO, and Larry Fitz all got into a car accident that would cause them to miss the first two games of the season. The gap in EOY projections between them and Moss would be so great that Moss would vault into the top-5 overall in our VBD app.The reason I bring this up is this: if you genuinely belive Brady will be THAT much better than any QB2, he is worth a pick that high. If any other QBs can approachhis numbers this year, he is not. It's the gap, not the actual numbers, that matter.

Actually, Brady has been sitting at #2 behind LT well before the Manning knee surgery and Manning's EOY projections deflation.

Change some scoring and some lineup and the VBD app changes where Brady sits, but I understand your point.

True, in a 6pt TD league with PPR, Brady falls to #3. Nevertheless, it has been this way for the last month or so.

 

[dirtywaters20]

How about in a 12 team 2qb, 2rb, 4wr/te with a flex league with 6pts for all touchdowns?

Brady lists far & away as the top overall choice in this format according to the DD based on Dodds projections (close to 4100 yrds & 40 tds). I still struggle with how much his stats will regress (which I feel is a virtual certainty) & with the flex spot; pretty much 32 running backs start in a given week.

In a 1 qb league....I don't touch Brady in the 3 hole even if it's 6pts.

 

[komments]

I have seen a lot of people projecting 40+ TDs for Tom Brady this season. I don't see it.

http://www.ffreport.com/?p=49

In the history of the NFL 40 TDs has been achieved a total of five times. Dan Marino is the only QB to have done it twice.

Prior to last season, Brady's best year was 28 and he averaged 24.5 in his five years starting.

My projection - 4300 yards and 35 TDs.

 

[*****]

Since we agree that VBD says you don't take Brady at #3 - is it Westy or SJax in a non-ppr? Discussion on SOS between the two?

Actually, in a 6pt TD league, the VBD says to take Brady #2.....and #3 in PPR. And I agree.

I am seeing the same thing, even with Brady projected to have 35 TDs in my projections.

 

[Longshot88]

I am drafting a team now the zealots masters league, and I took Brady at 1:5, Yeah my rbs are very weak, Like to take chances, but everywhere else im stacked

Welcome, Z16 Indianapolis Colts (Logout)

Learn more...

Zealots Masters Challenge 2008 Rosters

Z16 Indianapolis Colts

Player YTD Pts Bye Drafted

Brady, Tom NEP QB - 4 1.05

Garcia, Jeff TBB QB - 10 18.08

Betts, Ladell WAS RB - 10 16.08

Booker, Lorenzo PHI RB - 7 13.05

Hall, Andre DEN RB - 8 19.05

Jones, Thomas NYJ RB - 5 4.08

Taylor, Chester MIN RB - 8 8.08

Edwards, Braylon CLE WR - 5 2.08

Evans, Lee BUF WR - 6 6.08

Johnson, Chad CIN WR - 8 3.05

Meachem, Robert NOS WR - 9 20.08

Williams, Roy DET WR - 4 5.05

Cooley, Chris WAS TE - 10 7.05

Kampman, Aaron GBP DE - 8 11.05

Umenyiora, Osi NYG DE - 4 9.05

Briggs, Lance CHI LB - 8 12.08

Tatupu, Lofa SEA LB - 4 10.08

Tillman, Charles CHI CB - 8 21.05

Winfield, Antoine MIN CB - 8 17.05

Sanders, Bob IND S - 4 15.05

Wilson, Gibril OAK S - 5 14.08

21 Total Players

 

[Longshot88]

one more thing, i drafted brady 1:5 over addai, fully expecting his production to drop 20% from last year....and as a colts fan it really does kill me to take a hated pat over a colt. but the #s dont lie. and lookin over the team i drafted i believe 100% this is a better team overall than if i would have started rb,rb... of course it does not hurt to draft well..i see one pick that i sliped on, and reached..booker at 13.05

 

[FFdork]

I apologize for not reading every response, but I'm always posting this the year after a big season for a QB. If your league has fairly standard rosters and scoring, you win FF championships by getting QBs in their career years at a discount (i.e. after you've drafted at least 1 or 2 players). If Brady repeats last year, he's obviously worth a first round pick, but as I'm sure people have covered the odds are he comes back to earth to some degree.

The Pats certainly have enough RBs to run the ball more and try to slow down the rush on Brady (I'm sure every team will be trying to copy the Giants as best they can).

Say he puts up 80% of last years stats, which is a reasonable projection. What if there's a Culpepper to his Manning this year, if you follow me? A second QB that has a career year. Then you've really gained little advantage at one of the deepest positions on the board while spending the 1st round pick on a QB has put you behind the 8 ball to fill out your roster with solid starters at the RB and WR positions, especially if you start 3 WRs. Every team that didn't select a QB in the 1st round will theoretically start with better players at those harder to fill positions.

You will essentially have to strike gold with multiple value and sleeper RB/WR picks. The only way I consider Brady in the first round is if you think there are several home run value guys you could pick later (e.g. a lot of us loved getting AP in the 4th/5th round last year). The problem is that I don't see an Adrian Peterson lurking in the 4th for Tom Brady drafters this year.

 

[Longshot88]

To Be honest Utill last year, I was always a RB, RB and even RB kinda guy. Clearly the Rb is still the most valueable Position, the problem is the are less and less "Workhorse" Backs or even dependable safe Backs.. So my aprroch has changeed. Depending on the scoring of course, this is the only case I have ever taken a QB in the first round. But if you can get Top players at every postion besides Rb you can draft a winning team ,usually the top wr and qbs are more reliabe, forsure safe picks.. I also find it maniputaes the draft in your favor.