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Is Calvin Johnson - the ultimate Sell High candidate ? (1 Viewer)

StinkyCheeseman

Footballguy
Interested in opinions on whether Megatron is at an all time Sell High point ? Clearly the current value based drafting differentials to other WRs is significant (apart from Welker).

Leaving aside Moss's historic TD season, what was the next best TD scoring season by a WR ?

 
Interested in opinions on whether Megatron is at an all time Sell High point ? Clearly the current value based drafting differentials to other WRs is significant (apart from Welker).

Leaving aside Moss's historic TD season, what was the next best TD scoring season by a WR ?
:hophead: :lmao:
 
Unless a) the rest of your team is average or crappy, and b) someone offers you several quality starters for him, thereby giving you a more well-rounded starting lineup, I think you'd be crazy to trade Megatron right now. He is having what could be a historically outstanding season, and instead of selling high under the assumption that he will suddenly trail off, I would think riding him all the way is the smart move.

 
in a word, no (depending on what you can get, composition of team, hard to answer in a vacuum, but i don't expect his numbers to plummet from this point)...

moss broke record few years ago (23?)...

though rice more impressively had 22 in less than 16 games (12 or 13, strike shortened?)...

 
There is absolutely zero reason to believe Calvin won't continue to produce as one of the top WR. Not sure what you expect to gain by getting rid of a top scorer.

 
Calvin Johnson has always been an elite WR. The problem is the team. Now that Stafford is staying healthy, they have a beast of a DEF, they are set. If Stafford goes down, so do Johnson's stats. I don't know how many times Stafford has been hit. I am sure the coaching has been beat into his head to play like Dilfer in Baltimore: do not lose the game for us. In other words, don't turn it over, don't get injured, and let the DEF keep us in the game. Instead of sitting in the pocket too long or running, take the lost yards without the hit and move on.

I think the DET are a legit threat to the league this year. I don't think they are Superbowl contenders yet. That will be answered when GB and DET play on Thanksgiving day. I will not count their final game because it is Week 17 and both should be well set in their playoff positions. However, if it is for the NFC Champ and home field throughout, watch out in Week 17.

 
Why would you want to get rid of a guy who is dominating on a record pace and has no sign of slowing down?

Isn't the point of any fantasy league to win it? This would be a definite over coaching move.

 
Calvin Johnson has always been an elite WR. The problem is the team. Now that Stafford is staying healthy, they have a beast of a DEF, they are set. If Stafford goes down, so do Johnson's stats. I don't know how many times Stafford has been hit. I am sure the coaching has been beat into his head to play like Dilfer in Baltimore: do not lose the game for us. In other words, don't turn it over, don't get injured, and let the DEF keep us in the game. Instead of sitting in the pocket too long or running, take the lost yards without the hit and move on.I think the DET are a legit threat to the league this year. I don't think they are Superbowl contenders yet. That will be answered when GB and DET play on Thanksgiving day. I will not count their final game because it is Week 17 and both should be well set in their playoff positions. However, if it is for the NFC Champ and home field throughout, watch out in Week 17.
This.Calvin on Monday Night could have had 200 yards receiving if it weren't for Best exploding in the 2nd half. He was getting open with relative ease, will have 1-2 shots for a deep TD every week, and is uncoverable near the goalline. I wouldn't be surprised if he posted a 100/1550/22 season.DET's schedule is pretty favorable as well. SF, ATL, @DEN, bye,@CHI, CAR, GB, @NO, MIN,@OAK, SD, @GB. Most don't play Week 17, so there will be no cold weather games, they play 7 games on the track. From a fantasy perspective, there aren't any really scary defenses. GB was supposed to be good, but they have been average at best and good offenses have shredded them.IMO, Calvin will average 6 rec, 90 yds receiving, and 1 TD every week going forward. (Yes I think he can threaten Moss's record, but he likely will fall short.....I am guessing 20 TDs). In a PPR with no bonuses, that's about 21 points per week. Based on Dodds' forward rankings, I think Calvin is going to score 40-50 points more than an average WR1 in a 12 team league. That's an average WR1.....so WR6 so we're talking about someone like Wallace or Jennings. I can't imagine someone giving Jennings and others to make up a 40 point difference. That's essentially Wallace or Jennings AND another stud player. Won't happen.Therefore, unless your team is so bad, there's no way that you can trade Calvin and actually improve your team. So I think right now he's virutally untradeable.
 
Well, I'm actually shopping Megatron this week. My other WRs are Steve Smith/MWTB/Wasshington/D Moore (start 2 WR league w/ 2 FLEX); my RB1 is Beanie freakin' Wells w/ mediocre depth behind him (Greene/McGahee/DWill/Addai). Approached another team who has Welker/Jennings/DJax already, along w/ ADP/FJax as his 2 starting RBs. Floated the idea of my Megatron for his FJax & Jennings. I hate the idea of giving up Megatron, but I need a RB badly. Yes, I know, no one cares. No need for a snide response, just wanted to share a scenario that MIGHT make sense when it comes to trading away Megatron.

 
His value cannot possibly get any higher. From that perspective, it's a good time to trade.

You'd have to decide for yourself whether you can afford to lose him though, as his ppg would be hard to replace.

 
Why is everyone so insistent on selling high? You finally get a difference maker like Calvin who can win you games all on his own, and then you sell him? I don't get it.

 
There is absolutely zero reason to believe Calvin won't continue to produce as one of the top WR. Not sure what you expect to gain by getting rid of a top scorer.
I would expect to gain by trading him for more value than he is currently providing my team :confused: I believe that's the very definition of selling high.
 
Why is everyone so insistent on selling high? You finally get a difference maker like Calvin who can win you games all on his own, and then you sell him? I don't get it.
What's so hard to believe? I guarantee he won't keep with his current pace through the rest of the season. If you can trade to someone who thinks he will, you take advantage of the fish and get more value in return.Honestly, I have no clue why this concept is so difficult for so many of you.I envision you guys having the following conversation with your league mates:You: "No, I won't trade CJ"League mate: "But I'll give you Darren McFadden AND Dwayne Bowe for him!"You: "No! He WON ME SOME WEEKS!"League mate: "Fine, I'll give you McFadden and Hakeen Nicks!"You: " :rant: What part of 'He won me some weeks' don't you understand? *reject*"
 
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If you are trading studs for a quantity of mediocre to good players, you're doing your FF wrong. HTH.

Translation: NO!!! #### NO!!! and again NO!!!!

Why would sell high on a guy that's FINALLY playing up to the potential everyone thought he would? Are YOU high?! Are you allergic to winning or something?!?!?! Shark pool, indeed. :wall:

 
I was reading this thread the other day, and I never really considered trading CJ. Until today in my 12-team Standard scoring 2RB 2WR and a RB/WR flex league I was just offered WR Mike Williams TB, RB DeAngalo Williams, and TE Vernon Davis for Calvin Johnson.

My record is 3-2

My starters right now are:

RB1 Jahvid Best

RB2 Mark Ingram

Flex Mike Thomas

WR1 Calvin Johnson

WR2 Victor Cruz

With no one exciting on my bench Tate, Antonio Brown, Ridley, and Titus Young.

I'm hurting at TE since I have Gates, and I also lost Andre Johnson.

What do you guys think?

 
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If I could get Welker straight up in ppr I'd take it. Calvin can't keep up his pace, and I think Detroit is playing way over their heads right now with the soft early schedule.

 
Why is everyone so insistent on selling high? You finally get a difference maker like Calvin who can win you games all on his own, and then you sell him? I don't get it.
What's so hard to believe? I guarantee he won't keep with his current pace through the rest of the season. If you can trade to someone who thinks he will, you take advantage of the fish and get more value in return.Honestly, I have no clue why this concept is so difficult for so many of you.

I envision you guys having the following conversation with your league mates:

You: "No, I won't trade CJ"

League mate: "But I'll give you Darren McFadden AND Dwayne Bowe for him!"

You: "No! He WON ME SOME WEEKS!"

League mate: "Fine, I'll give you McFadden and Hakeen Nicks!"

You: " :rant: What part of 'He won me some weeks' don't you understand? *reject*"
agree. he's at 1 TD/3.2 REC. that's unsustainable.

yes, he's a freak, but even if he's guaranteed to turn in Randy Moss, just do the math, plug in those numbers, and see if there's a trade that could improve your starting lineup. i bet you'll find one... plus, added bonus since you'd likely be acquiring two starters, cutting down the risk that a single injury wipes out your team.

 
I was reading this thread the other day, and I never really considered trading CJ. Until today in my 12-team Standard scoring 2RB 2WR and a RB/WR flex league I was just offered WR Mike Williams TB, RB DeAngalo Williams, and TE Vernon Davis for Calvin Johnson.My record is 3-2My starters right now are:RB1 Jahvid BestRB2 Mark IngramFlex Mike ThomasWR1 Calvin JohnsonWR2 Victor CruzWith no one exciting on my bench Tate, Antonio Brown, Ridley, and Titus Young.I'm hurting at TE since I have Gates, and I also lost Andre Johnson.What do you guys think? I think I'm going to do it.
I hope you are fishing. That is a lot of swill for Megatron. Both DeAngelo and Tampa Mike are just a hair above waiver wire quality and Vernon Davis is solid, but not elite. You should be able to command a king's ransom and instead you're settling for scraps. But, this feels like fishing to me.
 
I hope you are fishing. That is a lot of swill for Megatron. Both DeAngelo and Tampa Mike are just a hair above waiver wire quality and Vernon Davis is solid, but not elite. You should be able to command a king's ransom and instead you're settling for scraps. But, this feels like fishing to me.
Thanks for the response. Yes I suppose I will keep fishing, but it's hard to believe someone in my league is willing to give me 3 "starters" for 1 player. Even if the 2 are so-so.Btw I am a cheesehead :hey:
 
Sell depending on league settings/team/offer. If selling demand a over the top deal. Holding is fine if nobody would pay that big because hes legit.

I play 1ppr 12man 1qb2rb3wr 1flex. 18man roster

It would honestly take elite rb and wr1 for me in this scoring system. Something along the lines of Foster/Mccoy and Wallace/Fitz. Would anyone pay this high? I am sure theres a few guys.I would possibly take a top tier qb and a rb1/wr1 as well if thats a need.

 
'RockonitsAjay said:
I was reading this thread the other day, and I never really considered trading CJ. Until today in my 12-team Standard scoring 2RB 2WR and a RB/WR flex league I was just offered WR Mike Williams TB, RB DeAngalo Williams, and TE Vernon Davis for Calvin Johnson.What do you guys think?
:lmao: :lmao:
 
Someone offered me Forte in a ppr for Megatron. I will likely hit that.
It all depends on value over replacement. I couldn't make that deal because the increase I get in value of Forte over my RBBC (Wells/Best) is nowhere near what I lose in replacing CJ with the likes of Gaffney/Burleson. I think anyone who drafted CJ with an upside down strategy and hit on a couple RBs is in the same boat.
 
'Warrior said:
There is absolutely zero reason to believe Calvin won't continue to produce as one of the top WR. Not sure what you expect to gain by getting rid of a top scorer.
I would expect to gain by trading him for more value than he is currently providing my team :confused: I believe that's the very definition of selling high.
To me selling high means you think his current numbers are highly inflated and you expect his numbers to drop off significantly in the future. If you have real bad holes in your team which can not be addressed via waiver wire, then by all means trade. If you are only going to marginally improve a couple of positions, I don't see trading megatron.
 
Took over an orphan dynasty team this past offseason with not much on it of worth but Calvin, AJ Green & Crabtree. Was offered Britt + a likely late 1st (team is 5-0 but has holes) in a PPR dynasty. Passed. I like Britt a lot, but would need a much better 2nd piece than a late first.

This is similar to another rebuilding team I have with Rodgers. I get offers of a lesser QB + a late 1st all the time. A late 1st round gamble is not worth the downgrade on a guy that good and that young.

 
I'm on the same boat.

My roster is...

QB - Matthew Stafford

WR - Calvin Johnson

WR - Larry Fitzgerald

RB - Adrian Peterson

RB - Rashard Mendenhall

TE - Jimmy Graham

FLEX - Steven Jackson

K - Jason Hanson

DEF - Detroit Lions

BN - DeAngelo Williams

BN - Vincent Jackson

BN - Greg Little

BN - Andy Dalton

BN - Jackie Battle

It's a standard Y! scoring league and obviously my strength is at WR. I consider my weakness RB being that ADP is my only valid stud. I'm a firm believer in RB > WR so I would like to strengthen my RB core just not sure if I want to do it at the expense of my QBBC with Stafford and Calvin. It's highly possible to get an Foster/Jennings, McCoy/Nicks, or Rice/Wallace combo. What do you guys think?

I think the trade would be worth it but I'm attached to the QBBC. If I didn't have Stafford, I think I would trade in a heartbeat.

 
I'm on the same boat.My roster is...QB - Matthew StaffordWR - Calvin JohnsonWR - Larry FitzgeraldRB - Adrian PetersonRB - Rashard MendenhallTE - Jimmy GrahamFLEX - Steven JacksonK - Jason HansonDEF - Detroit LionsBN - DeAngelo WilliamsBN - Vincent JacksonBN - Greg LittleBN - Andy DaltonBN - Jackie BattleIt's a standard Y! scoring league and obviously my strength is at WR. I consider my weakness RB being that ADP is my only valid stud. I'm a firm believer in RB > WR so I would like to strengthen my RB core just not sure if I want to do it at the expense of my QBBC with Stafford and Calvin. It's highly possible to get an Foster/Jennings, McCoy/Nicks, or Rice/Wallace combo. What do you guys think?I think the trade would be worth it but I'm attached to the QBBC. If I didn't have Stafford, I think I would trade in a heartbeat.
:X
 
Just traded Foster and S. Johnson for Calvin and Ravens D in a 10 team PPR league. Already have Mcfadden and Forte and Saints D. Thin at WR with AJ out. so

 
Why is everyone so insistent on selling high? You finally get a difference maker like Calvin who can win you games all on his own, and then you sell him? I don't get it.
There is a guy in my league who has Calvin Johnson and is 0-5. I can definitely see a reason why he would trade Calvin to upgrade at multiple positions.
 
I'm on the same boat.My roster is...QB - Matthew StaffordWR - Calvin JohnsonWR - Larry FitzgeraldRB - Adrian PetersonRB - Rashard MendenhallTE - Jimmy GrahamFLEX - Steven JacksonK - Jason HansonDEF - Detroit LionsBN - DeAngelo WilliamsBN - Vincent JacksonBN - Greg LittleBN - Andy DaltonBN - Jackie BattleIt's a standard Y! scoring league and obviously my strength is at WR. I consider my weakness RB being that ADP is my only valid stud. I'm a firm believer in RB > WR so I would like to strengthen my RB core just not sure if I want to do it at the expense of my QBBC with Stafford and Calvin. It's highly possible to get an Foster/Jennings, McCoy/Nicks, or Rice/Wallace combo. What do you guys think?I think the trade would be worth it but I'm attached to the QBBC. If I didn't have Stafford, I think I would trade in a heartbeat.
I don't know, do you think the other team in your league would trade with you?
 
OFfered LeSean and Garcon for Megatron. The guy is struggling at RB, but I still expect to be rejected.

 
i offered brady(all td's 6pts), gore, eric decker for matt ryan, and calvin. the guy that has calvin is 1-4 and was starting ahmad bradshaw AND brandon jacobs for a while. he hasnt responded but like others im expecting a rejection just based on the hype for calvin.

 
Ok. Either you don't know what QBBC means, or I don't.

QB by committee, correct? What does that have to do with having Stafford and Megatron?

Maybe I'm just confused.

 
Got an offer of Miles Austin, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Starks in a 14 teamer. Contemplating it.

I've been rolling with the redskins RBs and Ingram all year ( :X ) so I could use the RB help.

 
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'R Dizzle said:
OFfered LeSean and Garcon for Megatron. The guy is struggling at RB, but I still expect to be rejected.
That's a lot better than the ridiculous Garcon/Tolbert offer I got. I would still reject it... but a lot closer.
 
I'm on the same boat.My roster is...QB - Matthew StaffordWR - Calvin JohnsonWR - Larry FitzgeraldRB - Adrian PetersonRB - Rashard MendenhallTE - Jimmy GrahamFLEX - Steven JacksonK - Jason HansonDEF - Detroit LionsBN - DeAngelo WilliamsBN - Vincent JacksonBN - Greg LittleBN - Andy DaltonBN - Jackie BattleIt's a standard Y! scoring league and obviously my strength is at WR. I consider my weakness RB being that ADP is my only valid stud. I'm a firm believer in RB > WR so I would like to strengthen my RB core just not sure if I want to do it at the expense of my QBBC with Stafford and Calvin. It's highly possible to get an Foster/Jennings, McCoy/Nicks, or Rice/Wallace combo. What do you guys think?I think the trade would be worth it but I'm attached to the QBBC. If I didn't have Stafford, I think I would trade in a heartbeat.
Maybe I'm missing another QB there, but I don't see how you have a QBBC. It looks like Stafford's your every week starter. You don't really rotate him with Dalton, do you?In any case, how does you going with a QBBC have anything to do with whether you'd trade Calvin Johnson?
 
haha, sorry, i totally misunderstood what QBBC was. I meant i didn't want to give up the stafford/johnson combo.

where am i getting my terminology? >_<

 
Terry Bradshaw is on Jay Leno tonight telling us that Bradford is the QB of Detroit. Downgrade Megatron immediately. ;)

 
A lot of people in this thread don't understand the principle of buy low and sell high. There is no way Calvin Johnson's next 5 games will be as good as his first 5. Considering that no one has been on this pace in the history of the league, it is a virtually certainty that his numbers will drop (but still be great). With that said, should you trade him? If you are in first place and don't have bye week/injury issues, then no. However, if you are middle of the pack, and could use 2 or 3 more pieces to propel yourself, then yes, now would be the time. If you are in the basement, then you have nothing to lose and Calvin Johnson would be the first piece that is expendable since you will get the most value for him. Hope that helps.

 

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