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Is Cam Newton the 1.01 pick in dynasty startups? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
It's only a matter of time before they start letting him kick field goals too.
bonesman
Footballguy
bonesman
Footballguy
There, there. Don't give up. Cam Newton isn't "a player".
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He could lead the league in rushing TDs. Scary.
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
Newton, Cam CAR QB
at Buccaneers Sun 1:00 p.m. ET
CAR 38, TBB 19
4.00 1 Passing TDs
18.00 3 Rushing TDs
5.40 54 Rushing Yards
2.70 27 Receiving Yards
0.00 0 Interceptions
8.16 204 Passing Yards
1.00 106.1 Passer Rating
-0.90 9 Sack Yards Lost
1.00 1 Receptions
39.36 Subtotal
Just freakish stats for a QB. Depends on the league scoring system, but he's got to be in the conversation for #1. I would still put him behind Rodgers though.
at Buccaneers Sun 1:00 p.m. ET
CAR 38, TBB 19
4.00 1 Passing TDs
18.00 3 Rushing TDs
5.40 54 Rushing Yards
2.70 27 Receiving Yards
0.00 0 Interceptions
8.16 204 Passing Yards
1.00 106.1 Passer Rating
-0.90 9 Sack Yards Lost
1.00 1 Receptions
39.36 Subtotal
Just freakish stats for a QB. Depends on the league scoring system, but he's got to be in the conversation for #1. I would still put him behind Rodgers though.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
That's pretty much what I've been saying too, and I don't understand how this thread generated so much arguing.I'd still put Rodgers at #1 on my Dynasty QB list, and I don't see it as a snub to put Cam at #2.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I was contemplating the idea of Newton "breaking down" as RBs do and would like other's opinions on this.
"Breaking down" in terms of being a RB is simply losing half a step. The average RB isn't good enough to do that, and still be as effective as the other RBs on his roster, or effective enough to move the football in a way that helps his team. But what about QBs?
I think we can all agree that Cam will eventually lose half a step. But what will that mean for his future production on the ground? Cam, minus half a step, is still one of the better athletes to play the position. Cam minus half a step is still enough of a threat to run that he will be used, if only to keep a defense busy having to account for the threat.
My opinion - and again, we don't have much to go off of - is that a 29-31 year old Cam is still faster than a guy like Tebow, who is able to break 10-20 yard runs. He is still a threat from 1-4 yards out, although the 7+ yard TD runs are cut down. I think we would be able to count on 25 yards rushing and 0.33-0.5 TD/game, instead of 50 yards and 1 TD. That would equate to a 5-6 point advantage over non-running QBs, as opposed to 12.
Any thoughts on when Cam breaks down and what it looks like when he does?
"Breaking down" in terms of being a RB is simply losing half a step. The average RB isn't good enough to do that, and still be as effective as the other RBs on his roster, or effective enough to move the football in a way that helps his team. But what about QBs?
I think we can all agree that Cam will eventually lose half a step. But what will that mean for his future production on the ground? Cam, minus half a step, is still one of the better athletes to play the position. Cam minus half a step is still enough of a threat to run that he will be used, if only to keep a defense busy having to account for the threat.
My opinion - and again, we don't have much to go off of - is that a 29-31 year old Cam is still faster than a guy like Tebow, who is able to break 10-20 yard runs. He is still a threat from 1-4 yards out, although the 7+ yard TD runs are cut down. I think we would be able to count on 25 yards rushing and 0.33-0.5 TD/game, instead of 50 yards and 1 TD. That would equate to a 5-6 point advantage over non-running QBs, as opposed to 12.
Any thoughts on when Cam breaks down and what it looks like when he does?
thehornet
Footballguy
Alright man. We get it. You've pretty much ruined this thread. You need to work on being less argumentative.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Any opinion on the question I asked?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
QBs are less sensitive to losing a step because their runs are often in open space instead of tight spaces. Steve Young had 450 rushing yards in a season when he was in his late 30s. Mike Vick could still run for 1000 yards as long as his body held up.
Some QBs get older and stiffer and just lose the ability. Like McNabb and McNair. Randall tore his ACL and lost most of his athleticism. He had that one great year in Minnesota but he couldn't run anymore.
Whether Cam still runs for 6-700 yards when he's in his thirties is more due to gameplan and health than getting older.
Some QBs get older and stiffer and just lose the ability. Like McNabb and McNair. Randall tore his ACL and lost most of his athleticism. He had that one great year in Minnesota but he couldn't run anymore.
Whether Cam still runs for 6-700 yards when he's in his thirties is more due to gameplan and health than getting older.
thehornet
Footballguy
I'm just trying to give you some advice. You seem to be very pationate about the hobby which is cool but sometimes you yell when others dont agree with you. Like anyone, the body wears down in age. As Cam gets older, I feel like he will be less and less of a running threat. He will probably be above average as a runner into his early 30's barring injury. Yes, this will always be an asset and something that defenses needs to gameplan for each week.
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
I have stafford who is no slouch but would like to get Cam from the Rodgers owner. Gotta think he'd move him when Cam is simply his bye week filler. What would people move for Cam?
dynastyguru32
Footballguy
I don't think I can put Cam on the 1.1 pedestal. I think that 12 games to start a career isn't enough to make that case just yet. He does have unbeleivable talent. I think that after teams have a year to look at Cam's work this year they will be better able to plan for him. Look at Derek Anderson's pro-bowl year in Cleveland and then look at him the next year. Look at Vick's year last year and now how he is doing this year. I might be off a little here but aren't Cam's yards per reception skewed a little by the first 5 weeks of the season when defenses dared him to pass downfield and he and smith burned them. What is his yards per completion over the last 5 games?
This would be my reason for not picking Cam 1.01 overall. I would rather pick Rodgers who has proven it over the last 3 years. I don't think I would ever fault anyone from picking up Cam 1.01 though.
This would be my reason for not picking Cam 1.01 overall. I would rather pick Rodgers who has proven it over the last 3 years. I don't think I would ever fault anyone from picking up Cam 1.01 though.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Here's what Cams averages look like the last 5 weeks:200 yds per game
7.7 yds per completion
6.4 yds per rushing attempt
QB rating 86.3
1 interception per game
50.4 yds rushing
1 passing TD per game
1.2 rushing TD per game
His yards per completion rank number him 7 overall. And he is number one overall in completions over 20 yards. His total yards per game have him at number 8 overall. And if they counted all his touchdowns he'd be number 5 in scoring overall.
I traded Sam bradford and finley for cam and a late first round pick about two weeks ago with a pretty savvy owner and he had brees as his other qb ,, hope that helps
I don't think its possible for me to hate that trade for the Cam owner more.
thehornet
Footballguy
oukurt
Footballguy
Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
The guy's running on the goal line, and when the play breaks down. Other than that he's been a pretty competent pocket passer who happens to be dangerous on the bootleg. He's got a top-5 arm in the league. Your post reads like you haven't actually watched much of Cam. Defenses are already "making him pass", as he's mostly been a passing threat who runs extremely well in the Red Zone.Overall your point of view seems pretty ignorant of Cam's actual skill-set, and seems based on a perceived or assumed skill-set. Have you watched the Panthers much?Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
OnTheReg
Footballguy
Vince Young redux??? Wow.Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
oukurt
Footballguy
Lighten up Francis. Don't want you getting all butt hurt over my opinion that Cam will bust. It is just an opinion. Or maybe you didn't like me referencing Dexy's as a one hit wonder? You may celebrate their entire collection.The guy's running on the goal line, and when the play breaks down. Other than that he's been a pretty competent pocket passer who happens to be dangerous on the bootleg. He's got a top-5 arm in the league. Your post reads like you haven't actually watched much of Cam. Defenses are already "making him pass", as he's mostly been a passing threat who runs extremely well in the Red Zone.Overall your point of view seems pretty ignorant of Cam's actual skill-set, and seems based on a perceived or assumed skill-set. Have you watched the Panthers much?Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
EBF
Footballguy
Cam is from a different planet than Young or Vick. The big difference being that he can actually throw the ball. In Young's first two seasons he averaged 6.2 and 6.7 yards per pass attempt. He didn't break the 7.3 barrier until his fifth season, when he threw only 156 passes (very small sample size). Similar story with Vick. He did manage 7.0 yards per attempt in his first season as a starter, but topped out at 7.2 until he landed in Philly and benefited from their friendly system. Kordell is a horrible comparison for similar reasons. He was always terrible passing the ball. The stats don't lie. A big part of what makes Cam special is that he's not only running extremely well, but also passing extremely well. After yesterday's game, he's averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Here's how that stacks up compared with all the other NFL QBs who have 200+ pass attempts:Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.
Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
Aaron Rodgers - 9.4
Tom Brady - 8.5
Matt Schaub - 8.5
Eli Manning - 8.4
Drew Brees - 8.1
Cam Newton - 8.0
Ben Roethlisberger - 8.0
Tony Romo - 7.9
Kevin Kolb - 7.8
Philip Rivers - 7.7
Alex Smith - 7.4
Jay Cutler - 7.4
Michael Vick - 7.3
Matt Moore - 7.3
Matt Ryan - 7.2
Matthew Stafford - 7.2
Tarvaris Jackson - 7.0
Christian Ponder - 7.0
Rex Grossman - 6.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 6.8
Andy Dalton - 6.8
Joe Flacco - 6.7
Matt Hasselbeck - 6.7
Mark Sanchez - 6.6
Josh Freeman - 6.6
Matt Cassel - 6.4
Curtis Painter - 6.3
Sam Bradford - 6.0
Colt McCoy - 5.9
Blaine Gabbert - 5.2
I think yards per attempt is probably the best overall stat for determining QB performance. The list of players who tend to score high in this category from year to year reads like a list of the league's elite QBs. As we can see, Cam is situated firmly among the league's upper echelon.
The scary thing is that most of the veterans on this list eventually improved their yards per attempt average from their first season numbers. If Cam is anything like the vast majority of QBs on this list, we haven't seen his best YPA season yet.
When you add his prodigious passing skills to his historic running ability, you have a potential recipe for the best FF QB ever.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A lot depends on scoring system, but:I like Cam a lot more than Ingram. More than twice as much.Gronk and Graham, like Newton, are young, talented, athletic, and scoring at alarming rates. I like Gronk and Graham about as much as I like Cam, relative to their positions, so it really all comes down to format. 1.5PPR and we are talking about splitting hairs. 1PPR, and I would go with Cam by a good margin.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't blame anyone that is not ready to rule out the posibility of him busting. But to claim to see signs of it...I just don't get it. Given the circumstances, what more can a rookie QB show? This sounds like there is some bias here.Feels very 1 hit wonder to me.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
1. Not sure I agree with you2. This post is hilarious 3. Pain meds are Wonderful4. I fully Condone all music references of they are relevant.Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
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squistion
Footballguy
Where did he claim to see signs of it? He seemed to be referring to the flavor of how it feels - perhaps something along the lines that this is too good to be true and continue for his entire career, as suggested by the earlier remark of "I just would not feel safe investing a 1st round dynasty pick on a scrambling type QB who is going to take some huge shots."I don't blame anyone that is not ready to rule out the posibility of him busting. But to claim to see signs of it...I just don't get it. Given the circumstances, what more can a rookie QB show? This sounds like there is some bias here.Feels very 1 hit wonder to me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Age certainly will slow him down a little - but also part of the "breaking down" for RBs is because of the years and years of abuse they take running the ball. Cam does not take most of that abuse.
two_dollars
Footballguy
I think Newton is great and wouldn't fault anyone taking him 1.01, however for me personally, I still have to take Rodgers.
You can't argue that Rodgers can't keep up what he is doing because Manning and Brady regressed, then on the next breath argue Cam can keep doing what no one else has ever done.
You can't argue that Rodgers can't keep up what he is doing because Manning and Brady regressed, then on the next breath argue Cam can keep doing what no one else has ever done.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why do people say things like this? Defenses don't have to make Newton pass. He already does that on his own. Unlike the early years of Vick and Young, Cam does not look to run at the first chance he gets. Other than at the goal-line where there are designed runs, Newton generally only runs as a last resort when he doesn't have anyone open and/or the pass rush is getting to him. As far as the GL - all teams generally play to stop the run at the goal-line anyway - are teams going to try extra hard to not let Cam run it in down there?Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.
matttyl
Footballguy
I agree with the above. It's not like he's a bad passer by any stretch of the imagination. He's currently 8th in the league in passing yards with 3,297 - AS A ROOKIE! He's currently only 442 passing yards away from what Peyton Manning did in his rookie year....with 4 games to go. Now while I don't want to go so far as to fully compare Cam Newton to Peyton Manning....I think it's safe to say that Manning had far better targets his rookie year than Cam does in his. Now I'd still take Rodgers over Cam (depending on scoring system), but Cam in my mind is still a very good first round dynasty pick.Why do people say things like this? Defenses don't have to make Newton pass. He already does that on his own. Unlike the early years of Vick and Young, Cam does not look to run at the first chance he gets. Other than at the goal-line where there are designed runs, Newton generally only runs as a last resort when he doesn't have anyone open and/or the pass rush is getting to him. As far as the GL - all teams generally play to stop the run at the goal-line anyway - are teams going to try extra hard to not let Cam run it in down there?Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: “Come on Eileen” one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
True. I very easily could have misunderstood him.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
He does have the tendency to run when his first read is covered. There are designed runs in the middle of the field. The big yardage runs on Sunday, one the first read was covered so he took off very fast, the other was an option play. I don't see him going through progressions too much. Early Vick and Young, I think they had the mentality that they didn't even want to trust their WRs. They would abandon the pass if they saw a lane even without considering a read and try to win the game all on their own. If that's the line to draw between the two I agree. Early Vick would never throw the ball to Legedu Naanee.
But to say "last resort" is an overstatement. Probably everyone agrees there is room for maturation so not to belabor it too much.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Unlike Vince Young, Cam is a good passer too.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Cam Newton Is basically Vince Young with Confidence... I feel like people forget how dominant of an athlete Young was at Texas. He just ended up listening to everyone about not being able to run and has been trying to be a pocket passer ever since. I watched the eagles game last week and what I saw was a Shell of Young's former self. One play in particular where he just needed to beat one guy to get to the endzone and he got tackled and looked extra timid doing so. Cam may have the slight edge as a passer, but the ultimate advantage having the confidence to play his own game. Newton looks like hes going to be a stud and I think he has to be 1.3 behind Rodgers and Calvin in dynasty startups.
solorca
Footballguy
Defenses have forced Cam to pass on them. That's when he's thrown 400 yards.Newton is on pace for over 4000 yards this season...I think he's proven that he can pass. For some reason though, people only see him running and think he can't pass. The only time Cam has really been a "run first" QB this season is when Carolina is in goal line situations that would typically go to running backs anyway. He runs in situations where a typical pocket passer would throw the ball away or take a sack. Very rarely does he just decide to run when there are open passing options, unlike a Vick or Young would.Not the least concerned of a sophomore jinx or what I see coming (Vince Young redux)? Feels very 1 hit wonder to me. Not Dexys Midnight Runners: Come on Eileen one hit wonder bad, but the Macarena one hit wonder bad. Defenses are going to make him pass at some point. As soon as there is a recipe for this, it will be copied by every Carolina opponent.The fall will be harder and further than what Tim Tebow has coming.Reading over this I am not sure where I was going with the music references. Aren't pain meds wonderful?
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Instinctive
Footballguy
I like the opening dynasty draft of Cam and Graham
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I was just thinking the same thing. I don't think I have ever gone 2 rounds without picking a RB. I am having a hard time thinking of a startup in which I haven't grabbed a top 5 RB. But, drafting out of the 6 spot, I would be very happy with:1 - Cam2 - Graham3 - RB4 - RB
Concept Coop
Footballguy
To take it a step further - I think Graham and Cam both offer unique skill sets for their position. Graham is a walking mismatch in a way very few other offensive players are, and Cam is a LB sized, accurate QB with a canon, who is a threat to be towards the league leaders in rushing TDs. Very fun players to own, as well advantageous.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
True. It would be more accurate to say that generally he does look to pass first and runs if its not there.
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
If you have 1.01 and want a QB, then Rodgers is your man. You can then trade Rodgers to the owner that has Cam, and pick up some extra value most likely. Cam can be had cheaper than Rodgers (although he is also expensive), is younger, and is showing that he could put up similar numbers. Although he has a lower floor and is more of a wild card at this point, due to the extreme value of Rodgers, I would go after Cam first.
