To me, the giant, glaring, flashing flaw with this argument is that it is predicated on Cam Newton HAVING to sustain his current rushing production and end each season with 12+ rushing touchdowns. This argument isn't based on the fact that he COULD sustain the pace and it would be a bonus if he did, it literally must happen for it to have merit. If it was a mere matter of Cam Newton only needing to maintain 5-8 rushing touchdowns per season to realistically consider him the best fantasy quarterback, let alone overall player, it would be a very realistic discussion. However, that wouldn't be the case- given any historical context and assigning incredibly optimistic passing assumptions for Newton over his career, 5-8 rushing touchdowns wouldn't make him better than Aaron Rodgers given the track record Rodgers has provided over his career, let alone some of the other very young and very productive players that would be options at 1.01.
Another myth that needs to be dispelled is that Cam Newton is the true goal line back of the Panthers. Over the first 5 games of the season, this is exactly how he functioned. A look at the game logs reveals the following Newton rushing touchdowns:
Game 1 = 1 touchdown (1 yard)
Game 2 = 1 touchdown (4 yards)
Game 3 = 0 touchdowns
Game 4 = 2 touchdowns (1 yard and 2 yards)
Game 5 = 1 touchdown (1 yard)
That gave Newton 5 touchdowns in 5 games, a rate of 1 touchdown per game and a per season pace of 16 touchdowns, with all of them coming from within the 4 yard line (and all but 1 being right at the goal line). One would have to assume that he was the goal line back during this 5 game stretch and watching the games confirms this assumption- nearly every time the Panthers got near the stripe, the play call was some form of a Cam Newton run (broken up only rarely by a Stewart run).
However, starting in game 6, the Panthers stopped using Cam as the only goal line back of choice. In the following 6 games, Newton's game log played out like this:
Game 6 = 1 touchdown (14 yards)
Game 7 = 1 touchdown (16 yards)
Game 8 = 0 touchdowns
Game 9 = 0 touchdowns
Game 10 = 2 touchdowns (11 yards and 6 yards)
Game 11 = 1 touchdown (14 yards)
That 6 game stretch left Newton with 5 touchdowns in 6 games, a rate of .83 touchdowns per game and a per season pace of 13, with none of them coming from within 6 yards. One would have to assume that he was not the goal line back during this 6 game stretch and watching the games somewhat confirms this, as Jonathan Stewart notched touchdown runs of 1 and 2 yards in 2 different games and DeAngelo Williams notched a touchdown of 2 yards in a 3rd game. While Cam was still involved at the goal line, he no longer was the sole ball carrier and watching the games actually confirms that he was the clear second running option behind whichever running back was in the game at the stripe.
While he still maintained a fantastic touchdown rate over this 6 game stretch, it did drop from his first 5 game rate, and it suddenly becomes a VERY risky proposition to have to begin relying on touchdowns of 14, 16, 11, and 14 yards to maintain the rushing pace necessary to reach the expectations many are setting for him. I find it very curious that many are already settling in on the fact that Cam Newton will be the goal line back for the panthers for the next 7-8 seasons (perhaps even more according to some) when the data shows he didn't even make it past 5 games of his FIRST SEASON as the feature goal line back. Something there doesn't quite add up for me.
That last point is exactly why I don't see the sense in Newton at 1.01 in a new dynasty league (or above several players for that matter). He is a fantastic player and I like him a lot, but there is far too much unknown and risk involved to possibly feel comfortable wit him or make it a smart move. Sure, he could continue to average 14.5 rushing touchdowns per season, which is his current pace. However, if we are going to speak in hyperbole about Cam Newton, then we must also do the same of Aaron Rodgers- it is possible that Rodgers could average 40+ touchdowns over the remainder of his career, as Rodgers is to precision passing and perfectly timed running what Cam Newton is to rushing (meaning while people are saying Cam Newton is revolutionizing the position and running like we have never seen a quarterback run before, the same must be said of Rodgers. We have never seen a quarterback play this smartly, be this accurate, have this much passing ability, be able to run when necessary, etc...). This still makes Rodgers the player to own, even when speaking in hyperbole.
The reality is that neither of these players will likely ever do what the hyperbole rants are suggesting. Rodgers isn't likely to average 40+ touchdowns per season and neither is Cam. The difference is that Rodgers is still quite young and has a track record that establishes himself as the highest scoring quarterback in the league and a player you can bank on. While the early returns for Cam do the same, it's still VERY early and his game logs trouble me. If the Panthers continue to operate with Cam as only a secondary option at the goal line instead of the primary option (as they HAVE been doing over the last 6 games), then suddenly Cam loses a TON of value. He simply isn't going to continue to consistently produce 10+ yard rushing touchdowns at the rate that would be necessary to maintain the value some are assigning (based on the assumption that he would be the goal line back). This suddenly places a huge emphasis on the need to improve his passing production to achieve that value. I think he is a great player and absolutely could reach the passing production necessary, but I also acknowledge there is a very real possibility he won't (he has looked both great and terrible in the passing game at points this season). When there are so many other very young, very proven, very talented players that are options at 1.01, why would you want to take the giant risk that either Cam Newton's passing production will increase substantially or the Panthers will revert back to using him as the primary option at the goal line? Additionally, why would you want to take that risk when even if everything goes right and it happens like you wanted, the likely result is the production level that Aaron Rodgers already provides with essentially no risk assigned at all?
Like I said earlier, I own Cam in a dynasty and I'm happy, but if we redrafted tomorrow then Rodgers would top my QB list easily.
assing: 3,020 yards, 7.0ypa, 21td, 17intRushing: 476yds, 11tdIt's a lot more comparable than you would think. His completion percentage was down but everything else was good.Meanwhile, Culpepper's first year blew both Kordell AND Cam out of the water from a passing standpoint.It seems like with these guys (young QBs that can run) we're always saying "imagine if he improves xxxx just a little bit". Yet, it rarely works out. Even if they do improve xxxx, their rushing stats taper off and cancel it out, or they disappear for a couple of seasons at a time. It's been mentioned that Aaron Rodgers is having a career year. I'm not convinced that Cam isn't having the same from a rushing TDs standpoint.It seems like not that long ago we were having this same discussion with Culpepper vs Peyton. These erratic running QBs always tease us with impressions of long-term FF dominance and we never learn. Cam could just as easily finish QB12 next year like Kordell/Culpepper did after their hot starts. Take Rodgers and enjoy an "off" year being a year where he finishes as QB3.
