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Is David Wilson a sell-high? (1 Viewer)

Wilson takes over for Ahmad Bradshaw, who rushed for 1,015 yards last year. Bradshaw was released on Feb. 6. Wilson, who rushed for 358 yards and four touchdowns in limited duty as a rookie last season, is expected to share playing time with Andre Brown. But the 2012 first-round draft choice is the team’s most dynamic player at that position.

The question has been asked the entire offseason: is Wilson ready to be the Giants’ primary ballcarrier this year?

“I think he’s in a position to compete to be the guy,” running backs coach Jerald Ingram said. “He has the talent, has the speed, has a few plays from a year ago underneath his belt.”

Wilson has been an everyday participant in the Giants’ offseason conditioning program and organized team activities. He’ll have a chance to secure the job when training camp begins in late July.

“Once we put the pads on, we’ll see who is physical, who’s determined to make plays out there,” Ingram said. “I think he’s grown. He has a fairly good understanding of the offense right now. He’s definitely in position to be the guy, but I think just like what we’ve done in the past here, we’re going to be a rotation type team and what certain backs do best, we’ll play. I think he’s a playmaker. He’s definitely going to contribute and help us out. There are some goals that he has to accomplish for us. He’s definitely on a better track than he was a year ago in understanding our protections and doing those kinds of things. I think we’ll take advantage of his natural ability as much as we can, but everything will start with me as a coach. I’ve got to do a better job of coaching him and getting him ready to play, just like Andre Brown. We’ve got young guys here. We’ve got a tradition of great running backs here that have established themselves as leaders on this team and that’s where he’s got to be. He’s got to be a guy that Eli (Manning) can trust in every situation possible and we’ll go from there, but right now I think he’s on track.”

Protecting the franchise quarterback, not running the football, is the most important job for a Giants back. Perhaps the most important uncertainty about Wilson is whether he can handle that responsibility.

“I definitely see progress,” Ingram said. “I think he’s got a clear understanding as far as what our protections are, what is expected of him, but until you actually physically ask that individual to do that full speed and full gear, we’re not exactly doing that right now. But I think when we go to camp, he knows what his goals are right now and what he has to accomplish to be a complete running back and contribute on our team. I think we’ll get that out of him. He’ll be a much improved player from that situation this year.” http://www.giants.com/news-and-blogs/article-1/David-Wilson-prepares-for-lead-RB-role/fd701596-7074-4609-885e-19ed476d999d

If you watch the Video the RB coach says a lot more about Andre Brown at the 1:05 mark. He says Brown is healthy. He says the reason they brought Brown in is because he can catch, run he can do a lot of things to be a complete RB here. He is definitely a true every down kind of guy.

Also of note he says Bear Pascoe will be the FB while Henry is out with injury.

Ryan Torain looks like the 3rd guy for now unless rookie Cox beats him out or a veteran is signed. Scott did really bad on the few carries he got last season.

Ryan Torain-

Code:
2008	22	DEN	rb	42	2	1	15	69	1	19	4.6	34.5	7.5								69	2010	24	WAS	RB	46	10	8	164	742	4	54	4.5	74.2	16.4	18	125	6.9	2	20	1.8	12.5	867	2011	25	WAS	rb	46	8	4	59	200	1	39	3.4	25.0	7.4	6	23	3.8	0	7	0.8	2.9	223
 
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Projection:

280 carries, 1250 yards

40 catches, 300 yards

9 combined touchdowns.
This is a real good prediction here, this is about how I see it also.
If he averages under 4.5 yards per carry like this projection, then I will be VERY unhappy. He should not be getting 280 carries...I would be much more happy with something in the 220-240 carry range with 35+ catches.

If he DOES get those ~240 carries and ~35 catches, I also see him with much more than 9 total TDs. He had 5 last year on only 75 offensive touches.
Brown was injured when that happened...

 
Projection:

280 carries, 1250 yards

40 catches, 300 yards

9 combined touchdowns.
This is a real good prediction here, this is about how I see it also.
If he averages under 4.5 yards per carry like this projection, then I will be VERY unhappy. He should not be getting 280 carries...I would be much more happy with something in the 220-240 carry range with 35+ catches.

If he DOES get those ~240 carries and ~35 catches, I also see him with much more than 9 total TDs. He had 5 last year on only 75 offensive touches.
Brown was injured when that happened...
Does that change the fact that Wilson scored 5 times on only 75 offensive touches?

 
ty247 said:
Eminence said:
Andre Brown scored 8 touchdowns on 73 touches.
Why would you compare a guy who was a goal line back, to a guy that wasn't when it comes to scores per touches?
Because this is a Fantasy Football forum and a player who scored a touchdown once every 9 touches presents major value. David Wilson's ceiling touchdown-wise is what Andre Brown reached on 73 touches, imo.

 
ty247 said:
Eminence said:
Andre Brown scored 8 touchdowns on 73 touches.
Why would you compare a guy who was a goal line back, to a guy that wasn't when it comes to scores per touches?
Because this is a Fantasy Football forum and a player who scored a touchdown once every 9 touches presents major value. David Wilson's ceiling touchdown-wise is what Andre Brown reached on 73 touches, imo.
Mike Tolbert scored a touchdown every 7.7 touches.. Does he present major value?

On the other topic, I agree.. David Wilson's ceiling, touchdown wise, on the year may be 9 touchdowns.. I might even say it's likely closer to 7-8

Here's a list of other notable running backs last year, and the number of touchdowns they scored.

Ray Rice (9 rushing, 1 receiving)

Frank Gore (8 rushing, 1 receiving)

Chris Johnson (6 rushing)

CJ Spiller (6 rushing, 2 receiving)

Jamaal Charles (5 rushing, 1 receiving)

You still have to accrue yards to be valuable and consistent. Andre Brown is going to get some work in, he's going to get some goalline touches as well.. that's going to diminish Wilson's value in that case, where if he got all of the touches and goal line work than of course he's going to be more valuable..

But, Wilson has the talent, the Giants are behind him, they've put him in the position to be the lead dog and that's big. It's all on him now, if he fails it's because he came up short.

I just don't think you're going to see that happen.

 
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ty247 said:
Eminence said:
Andre Brown scored 8 touchdowns on 73 touches.
Why would you compare a guy who was a goal line back, to a guy that wasn't when it comes to scores per touches?
Just for the record, that "goal line back" also had a higher YPC (5.3 to 5.0) than Wilson last season - and more receptions.

 
Let's not forget also that David Wilson is 22 years old. His best season might not come until he is 24 or 26. It isn't a matter only of if he can improve his value this upcoming season, but whether it will be higher at some point in the future. I think it will. It think it almost assuredly will.

 
ty247 said:
Eminence said:
Andre Brown scored 8 touchdowns on 73 touches.
Why would you compare a guy who was a goal line back, to a guy that wasn't when it comes to scores per touches?
Just for the record, that "goal line back" also had a higher YPC (5.3 to 5.0) than Wilson last season - and more receptions.
Yes he did. He also received more playing time. He was miles ahead with respect to knowledge and comfort with the system, and miles ahead in pass protection.

You can double quote all you want. Brown will more than likely be relegated to a goal line and short yardage situation role this year. As I said, if Wilson proves he can't handle his responsibilities, hence me saying it's up to Wilson and on him to go out and get his job done, then Brown's going to go in and do it for him.

As I also said, I wouldn't bet against Wilson. Kid looks good. But now it's on him to go to work.

 
The Giants have a track record of RB gaining full confidence of the coaching staff at a glacial pace. So I would agree Scott has the longest tenure with the team at this point and so likely the most trust.

Wilson still has the opportunity to be the RB with the most touches I think.

Signing Jacobs could lead to him splitting some time at some point but clearly he is not an answer as a RB to garner many carries. If he plays it will likely be for his pass protection abilities.

Michael Cox might get some action as the season wears on but just like all of the RB, it takes a long time for any RB to establish the trust of the coaching staff which I think makes it unlikely he will see much action as a rookie. Maybe later on he will when he is in similar situation as Scott is right now.

The main problem with Scott is very similar to Brown (who will be coming back after week 10 last I heard), that he cannot stay healthy enough.

Bradshaw would likely still be with the team if he were not so injured all the time leading to him not being able to practice. Brown and Scott are in a similar category as Bradshaw in this regard as was Ware.

I would not pay as much attention to this situation as I do if I did not think it has value. I think it has a lot of value and Wilson has the highest upside of any of them. But to go into that blind to the history and Wilsons struggles in pass protection has caused him to be over valued.

 
So the answer to this question was, "yes", and y'all laughed at me. His value has plummeted.

Might be a good buy-low in Dynasty.

 

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