Hahahaha. Holy **** that is awesome. How do people make it so far in life without gaining a basic understanding of statistics/probability? DoubleG, if you flip heads two times in a row, what is the probability that you'll flip heads the next time?
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Is David Wilson a sell-high? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
I couldn't imagine accepting that deal to part with Wilson. Jennings is very replaceable and Sproles is a spare part in the NO running game. Gotta go with the potential upside in Wison. But I digress..
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'm not on board with Wilson and even I'd insta-decline Jennings and Sproles for him. And I'm also generally a "win this year" type of dynasty owner.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Carl Eller's Dead Liver
Footballguy
I know this normally would go in the assistant coach forum, but it fits nicely here and I'd appreciate any advice given, since I'm at a loss if I should move Wilson. Tonight I was offered this:
Bernard + 2014 First + 2014 Third for David Wilson.
Is this selling high? I feel like I'm getting a lot, but does Bernard have the upside Wilson does? I am good at RB in this league with TRich, McCoy, Martin long term and Lynch for 2013 only.
What should I do?
Bernard + 2014 First + 2014 Third for David Wilson.
Is this selling high? I feel like I'm getting a lot, but does Bernard have the upside Wilson does? I am good at RB in this league with TRich, McCoy, Martin long term and Lynch for 2013 only.
What should I do?
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I probably value future rookie picks less highly than others but I wouldn't do it, since I believe Wilson has a much higher fantasy upside than Gio.
But really, if you are going to trade Wilson or are otherwise looking to cash in on your excellent depth at RB (remembering in most leagues depth is sometimes a bit overrated as you can't start everyone every week if you have a ton of strength at one position), I'd be looking to improve other areas of your team, rather than getting a RB back.
But really, if you are going to trade Wilson or are otherwise looking to cash in on your excellent depth at RB (remembering in most leagues depth is sometimes a bit overrated as you can't start everyone every week if you have a ton of strength at one position), I'd be looking to improve other areas of your team, rather than getting a RB back.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
2 1st round picks and a 3rd rounder for Wilson (or any player) is a pretty good offer
About the only way I see you getting much more than that is if Wilson becomes a top 5 RB. If he does that then you should keep him.
Then again I think I underestimate what some people would pay sometimes.
The deal really boils down to how much you believe in Wilson compared to how much you like Gio.
About the only way I see you getting much more than that is if Wilson becomes a top 5 RB. If he does that then you should keep him.
Then again I think I underestimate what some people would pay sometimes.
The deal really boils down to how much you believe in Wilson compared to how much you like Gio.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Seems pretty fair, if it is a first offer I would counter it and try to get more but not a ton more.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
It is pretty much even value wise, so I think it comes down to 2 things:-Your gut feeling on Gio vs. Wilson, since the value in the trade is pretty even, which guy you like better?-Your best guess on how early that 2014 1st rounder will be. If you think it is likely to be late, the value may be a little less even. If you think it is likely top half with a decent chance at top 3, then the value tilts more in your favor.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Carl Eller's Dead Liver
Footballguy
Thanks for the advice everyone. I decided to go with my gut and keep David Wilson. There is something about the way he explodes out of the backfield that I haven't seen before. My taxi squad is already filled to the brim so I decided to keep Wilson.....given everyone is saying the trade is fair and not really weighted in my favor.
One fumble in a game. Fumbles were also an issue in college. I'm not worried, though. If Coughlin trusts him to have him as the clear starter now, I'm sure he's going to be fine.
I hope this is a joke. You have a 50% chance of getting heads any flip of the coin. The probability independent of any previous flip. Beyond this, the potential and career of each of those backs is independent of the other. Thus, assuming that one MUST fail because the other two look to be successful is borderline full tard.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Good, so you get it.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
I can understand the lower redraft ranking (as opposed to what should be a much higher dynasty ranking). I am more surprised that Reggie Bush is rated so low for redraft.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Me too. I can't really come up with a reason why Bush shouldn't be a shoe-in for RB1 production.
The fact that the Giants haven't signed any other RBs? Anyone that thinks Andre Brown is a true threat didn't watch the games. Brown is a plodder who can get what is blocked, but that's it. Perfect for short yardage/red zone situations. Bad for Wilson's fantasy value due to lost TDs, but no threat to regular carries.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
I don't disagree with some of what you stated, but there is a difference between what you (or I...or anyone else on this board) thinks should happen and Coughlin trusting Wilson and viewing him as the clear starter. Now, if you could simply provide a link where Coughlin said something like...oh, I don't know.. "I trust David and have him as the clear starter now", then I wouldn't have called the post into question.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think this time next year we are talking about Wilson as the number one overall dynasty back. The top dogs are aging, Rice, Peterson, Foster, Charles. And Wilson is younger than some of the rookies. Think about the season Trent Richardson just had. He rushed for less than 1000 yards. He totaled about 1400 combined and 12 touchdowns. He's hurt again right now and he's still the number one guy on the FBG rankings right now for dynasty.
Wilson could simply put up a good season such as that, nothing spectacular. In fact Richardson was the 8th ranked RB last year. Say Wilson just cracks the top 10. He will be right in there with Richardson. Both are very young (22 heading into the season). But the one advantage the Wilson has is that he plays for a much stronger organization. They are better at just about every position than Trent. I know sometimes that works against a player but I believe that Wilson will benefit from the rising tide there.
Now, if he has a great season and reaches his potential, we are looking at the next Chris Johnson or Lesean McCoy. Think about the value those two cats had coming off their phenomenal sophomore campaigns. Wilson has that type of potential.
Wilson could simply put up a good season such as that, nothing spectacular. In fact Richardson was the 8th ranked RB last year. Say Wilson just cracks the top 10. He will be right in there with Richardson. Both are very young (22 heading into the season). But the one advantage the Wilson has is that he plays for a much stronger organization. They are better at just about every position than Trent. I know sometimes that works against a player but I believe that Wilson will benefit from the rising tide there.
Now, if he has a great season and reaches his potential, we are looking at the next Chris Johnson or Lesean McCoy. Think about the value those two cats had coming off their phenomenal sophomore campaigns. Wilson has that type of potential.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
ESPN's Ed Werder stated on NFL 32 Thursday that David Wilson will "absolutely" be the Giants' lead runner in 2013.
Analysis: Werder anticipates Wilson being the "feature back" for the G-Men. Expect the 2012 first-round pick's Average Draft Position to rise steadily as August approaches. Wilson's upside could be capped a bit by goal-line vulture Andre Brown, but he can compensate with sizable workloads and explosive plays.
Analysis: Werder anticipates Wilson being the "feature back" for the G-Men. Expect the 2012 first-round pick's Average Draft Position to rise steadily as August approaches. Wilson's upside could be capped a bit by goal-line vulture Andre Brown, but he can compensate with sizable workloads and explosive plays.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Projection:
280 carries, 1250 yards
40 catches, 300 yards
9 combined touchdowns.
280 carries, 1250 yards
40 catches, 300 yards
9 combined touchdowns.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
gandalas
Footballguy
If he averages under 4.5 yards per carry like this projection, then I will be VERY unhappy. He should not be getting 280 carries...I would be much more happy with something in the 220-240 carry range with 35+ catches.
If he DOES get those ~240 carries and ~35 catches, I also see him with much more than 9 total TDs. He had 5 last year on only 75 offensive touches.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What are your projections for Brown? I think Brown is going to be the GL/Short distance back, as well as the 3rd down back. I don't see Wilson getting those numbers, if that's the case.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
People love shiny new toys, sure. But why would a 1500 YFS 9 TD season out of Wilson put him in the conversation for RB1 assuming the similarly young Doug Martin doesn't crap the bed this year? I'm not a huge fan of arguing draft pedigree over a significant sample of actual NFL touches, but many people are -- and that is why Richardson's fantasy value is what it is despite his relatively mediocre showing last year. People expected him to be the next Adrian Peterson (some said even better LOL), invested in him as if he were guaranteed to be that guy, and see what they want to see due to confirmation bias. If Richardson stumbles for under 1K with a crappy YPC again and doesn't have another TD % outlier year in 2013 I guarantee he won't be too many people's RB1 in 2014. Wilson, as a late 1st rounder, simply (and justifiably based on history) doesn't carry that type of expectation for most people.Now if he rocks out a 2000 YFS year, then we'll have a discussion IMO. And with Wilson's explosiveness, Brown's injury history, and the Giants' good offense, it looks within the realm of (remote) possibility. But I'm not about to say it's likely to happen...
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Brown will get the leftovers, if he can stay healthy.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Could be the case. Wilson will have had to make major strides in the 3rd down role. Players usually make big jumps in that area from year 1 to 2. Like another poster mentioned, I'd like - and think it more likely - fewer touches with a higher YPC. I don't think 280 carries is going to happen.
There's an almost 2.5 year gap between the two in age. That will be 23 and 25.5 going into the season next year. To me, that is not insignificant for dynasty.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It would be a good argument but the reason a lot of people would rather have Wilson if this season played out like this is because Wilson is 2.5 years younger than Martin.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Should have looked that up -- thx.
My general point stands tho -- is that age gap more significant than the track record and production gap assuming Wilson goes for 1500 / 9 and Martin hits 1900 / 12 again (or close to it)? There's a pretty huge difference in real value between those two sets of #s...
In a 10 team x 2 RB league 1900 / 12 is more than twice as valuable as 1500 / 9. In a 12 x 2 RB league it's almost twice -- in leagues with only one mandatory starting RB it's not even comparable.
My general point stands tho -- is that age gap more significant than the track record and production gap assuming Wilson goes for 1500 / 9 and Martin hits 1900 / 12 again (or close to it)? There's a pretty huge difference in real value between those two sets of #s...
In a 10 team x 2 RB league 1900 / 12 is more than twice as valuable as 1500 / 9. In a 12 x 2 RB league it's almost twice -- in leagues with only one mandatory starting RB it's not even comparable.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Brown at maybe 150 carries, 650 yards, 20 catches, 250 yards, 8 touchdowns.
I don't think that you pull the most explosive player on your team in third down situations. If Wilson can block, I think he's a three down back. His ability to gash a defense on draws would be tough to pass up. He's got rare burst, like McCoy.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
netnalp
Footballguy
Khy
Footballguy
No, I'm with him... what? You're right, because John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino didn't all come out of the same draft class. Marino was drafted 27th that year, clearly he couldn't be good if the other two were QB1's. 2004 didn't give us Big Ben, Eli and Phillip Rivers (two of these three are hall of famers and Rivers had the talent to be if he wasn't stuck on the worst managed team in football). Last year didn't have Andrew Luck, RG3, Russell Wilson. My point being to imply that there cannot be three complete 100% studs of the same position drafted in the same year is ridiculous.
Wilson arguably has the most upside, speaking in dynasty terms, of any RB in the NFL right now. People are complaining about his size... Barry Sanders was what like 5' 8" 200lbs? Raw talent trumps size, almost always. Wilson's combination of balance, speed, power, vision and agility is easily one of the higher physical talents at the position. Personally I don't see his downside being anything less than a high RB2 for the majority of his career. Short of a career ending injury. His upside is the #1 dynasty RB in the league though.
I made a post like this last season and I'm sticking to it, watch his films from college and his highlights from last year. Then go watch the highlights of guys like Sanders and Peterson, their running styles are very similar. They all just sort of 'glide' across a field, he makes cuts so fast they don't even look like cuts. Half of his returns last year looked like that scene in Star Wars where Han Solo has to thread the Millennium Falcon through the bay doors closing. It never looks like he's going to make it through the two defenders and somehow he does it, while hurdling over a guy on the way there.
Honestly, the only people I'm trading Wilson for right now would someone like Andrew Luck or CJ Spiller. And even with Spiller he has a small history of injuries already. I wish I could find someone who would trade me Wilson for Peterson in dynasty like some people in here are talking. I'd drop Peterson faster than a fat dude drops a carrot when desert comes out.
Depends on your outlook for Wilson. 1500/9 would be plenty validation for me that Wilson is on track for greater things and would put him above Martin given the 2.5 year age gap. If you think he's reached his max at 1500/9, then no, the age gap is probably not enough at ages 23 and 25.5 to put him over the top. If you're somewhere in between, Wilson should at least be in that conversation for the #1 along with TRich and Martin.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
We have a pretty strong philosophical difference here I'm guessing. There's no way I'd ever take a "might be elite" over a guy who has proven that he will produce elite numbers based on two possible extra years of shelf life at the end of a young guys' career. Paying for guys at their upside value as opposed to at their median expected value is a low percentage play. Once in a while you can hit on a guy that proves to be a big outlier (whose value blows away even the normal elite RB) like a Tomlinson or something. But more often you end up ruining your team going all in on Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, Ricky Williams, etc (all of whom were significantly stronger prospects this David Wilson by the way). Most of those guys were at least non-horrible 1.01 rookie picks, but that's not what we're talking about here. Expending 1.01 overall value on a player who ends up merely decent puts you behind the 8-ball for years.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
If we're talking about a standard scoring league starting 20 RBs or fewer each week Peterson's 2012 was indeed worth more points over baseline than three 1500 / 9 RB seasons. Chris Johnson's 2009 and Arian Foster's 2010 were worth four 1500 / 9 seasons. Tons of people continue to underestimate the value provided by the true stud RB1s.
Of course, we are not playing with 2009-2012 stats (but I get your point). Still, I'd prefer a 22 year old Wilson (even today, without the 1500/9) over a 28 year old Peterson (or a 27 year old Foster) as well.
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True, I don’t place as much weight on past performance as others.
However, a 1500 yard / 9 TD season in essentially a RB’s rookie year (with Wilson not having played much in 2012), if corroborated with what my eyes see and the rest of my evaluation, can make a player a “proven” one in my book (and a safe choice). I think it will be enough for many others as well (at which time, he will no longer be the great value he is today).
That said, one size does not fit all. That same or better performance from another back (e.g., Alfred Morris’ superior rookie stats) will not warrant nearly as high a ranking on my board.
I am not uncomfortable at all projecting elite numbers from a player like Wilson if I think the talent warrants the projection (and particularly when the player in questions already put up a 1500/9 in his first year starting or co-starting). I am not one to take past numbers and simply rank my dynasty players (or redraft in many cases) based on where players finished in the prior year (not saying you are), which may be the traditional “percentage play”. A 1500 yard / 9 TD performance from David Wilson in 2013 could possibly make him the safest RB to own in dynasty in 2014 imo.
Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson and Ricky Williams and how highly they were regarded or not regarded have very little to do with David Wilson imo. I can name “proven” guys that busted as well (like the aforementioned Ricky Williams after his 2200+ yard 17 TD year), but that really would have little to nothing to do with Doug Martin as well. Each player warrants a case by case analysis unless one is systematically going after a certain type of player based solely on profile without regard to a talent evaluation.
Moreover, paying for guys at “upside value” vs “median expected value” is all subjective. What is upside to you may be expected for me and vice versa. Most have a good sense of how good (or not good) they are at evaluating players. What is a “percentage play” for one, may not be the percentage play for another.
