Is drafting a TE late going to be automatic next year? (1 Viewer)

[The Ref]

I am taking the time to look ahead to what "should" happen next year, based on this seasons numbers to date. I participate in an Auction/Keeper league with performance scoring and PPR.

I was rather surprised to look at the points scored by TE's through week 12. There is only a 36 point difference between the #1 TE (Winslow 145) and TE #9 (Cooley 109). That's only 3 points a week on average.

Difference between QB 1 and QB 12 = 114 or 9.5 points per week (also 6 pts Per TD)

Difference between WR 1 and WR 24 = 93 or 7.75 points per week

Difference between RB 1 and RB 24 = 259 or 22 Points per week !

Granted LT2 and LJ are silly so..

Difference between RB 3 and RB 24 = 137 or 11 Points per week !

To add to this, there are definable tiers in all the positions. But in TE, I can't look at it and say wow player X is going to be so much more valuable then the rest next year.

I can see myself waiting until the late/middle rounds before I draft a TE next year - or at auction I will probably be spending a minimum bid.

Thoughts?

 

[CalBear]

I am taking the time to look ahead to what "should" happen next year, based on this seasons numbers to date. I participate in an Auction/Keeper league with performance scoring and PPR.I was rather surprised to look at the points scored by TE's through week 12. There is only a 36 point difference between the #1 TE (Winslow 145) and TE #9 (Cooley 109). That's only 3 points a week on average.Thoughts?

It depends whether you think 2007 will be like 2006, or whether it will be more like 2002-2005, where the top two or three TEs had a huge advantage over the rest of the field.

 

[Marc Levin]

My first thought is that 3 points a week from the TE spot is a pretty big deal.

My second thought is that, while Gates had an INSANE year last year, and was more than 5 points better per game than the #9 guy, the #2 TE last year was 2.8 PPG better than the #9 guy.

My third thought is that you should examine this display:

TEs since 2000

This is all the TEs with more than 50 and less than 300 fantasy points since 2000.

You will be surprised at how few times there are more than 2.5 FP difference between the #9 and #2 TE per year.

 

[The Ref]

My first thought is that 3 points a week from the TE spot is a pretty big deal.

My second thought is that, while Gates had an INSANE year last year, and was more than 5 points better per game than the #9 guy, the #2 TE last year was 2.8 PPG better than the #9 guy.

My third thought is that you should examine this display:

TEs since 2000

This is all the TEs with more than 50 and less than 300 fantasy points since 2000.

You will be surprised at how few times there are more than 2.5 FP difference between the #9 and #2 TE per year.

Good stuff there.

 

[Marc Levin]

Thanks - TE drafting is one of the things I examine closely every year.

I can't begin to tell you how many times I decide to draft one early, and then debate whether to break the cherry or wiat until someone else does.

I also can';t begin to tell you how many tiomes I have decided to wait and take two decent ones with upside hoping one or the other would pan out (Watson/Troupe was my upside combo this year), and then debating which two to take and when.

The only strategy I NEVER employ is "wait until everyone else takes one and then grab a couple b/c they don't matter"

In short, I like talking about TE drafting.

 

[The Ref]

My first thought is that 3 points a week from the TE spot is a pretty big deal.

Well, I gues it is. But then again if I can get a WR or RB late that is a starter before I draft a TE, there is a higher point differential then 3 points.Of course, if I had a strong feeling that if I could draft "TE - X" and he would get me 3 points more then the back end of the starting TE's I guess it would be worth an earlier pick. But the thing is, who is that player for next year. I don't have much confidance in being able to say who it would be. I also think it's fair to say we won't have a 3 Round TE in 2007. Unless someone goes off the last few weeks of 2006.

 

[Marc Levin]

It's walking a tight rope - and if you have the advantage of knowing your league well, you can kind of "game" the TE spot.

 

[Marc Levin]

BTW, drafting a TE late will not be automatic next year.

Drafting a TE "sometime after 4 are selected" might be.