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Is drafting late round QB's a waste of time for NFL GM's? (1 Viewer)

Warner with Vermeil/Martz is a famous story but is considered an exception, but what happens when the right QB meets the right OC or HC? Fouts with Coryell in SlD, Romo and Brees with Payton, McCown with Trestman, Foles with Kelly, Smith with Harbaugh and Reid, there are QBs who go quite a while without being graded out at all-pro quality until they hit with the right system.
It could be argued that the list of coaches/players above illustrates that the head coach/offensive system is more important than the skill of the quarterbacks selected by GM's.I'd trust a middle of the road QB prospect with Kelly in Philly, Reid in KC, or Harbaugh in SF before I'd trust a 1st round prospect in about half of the other organizations around the league.
well this is a wonderful list of QBs that found that one coach or one system and played great...cmon
Brees was replaced in SD, but became a stud in NO w/Peyton. McCown has bounced all over the league, but went crazy under Trestman and got paid in TB. Foles dropped in the draft and is fortunate Kelly took over in PHI (rather than a slew of other head coaching candidates after Reid was let go). Smith was on the road to complete bustville until Harbaugh took over.All of these quarterbacks have talent, but there is a significant percentage of their success that has come due to their coaches and offensive systems. The proof is on that list. Almost every "c'mon" type great player listed above didn't play nearly as well under different head coaches and/or offensive systems.

BTW - interesting list of percentages in the post above. It makes sense that (overall) quarterbacks did not fare as well in those metrics, but the 2nd/3rd drop seems odd, and seems to fly in the face of the non-1st round portion of Emery's theory.

 
BTW - interesting list of percentages in the post above. It makes sense that (overall) quarterbacks did not fare as well in those metrics, but the 2nd/3rd drop seems odd, and seems to fly in the face of the non-1st round portion of Emery's theory.
I think part of that is just due to sample size. There were only 12 QB drafted in the 47-73 range. The next lowest position drafted was TE who had 27 players taken (I combined RB and LB which are split in the article).

Part of it is just GM philosophy about drafting the QB position. If a QB is highly regarded they are a 1st round pick.

25 QB were drafted in the same time frame at pick 1-13.

7 QB 14-24

10 QB 25-46

12 QB 47-73

29 QB 74-114

41 QB 115-187

54 QB 188+

Considering that there are over twice as many QB drafted in the top 13 than there are picks 14-46 (top half of the 2nd round) there is a clear drop off just based on volume. There becomes kind of a dead zone at picks 47-73 because most of the good prospects get picked before then.

I think Emery's comments are in direct relation to Russell WIlson being the 75th pick (3rd round) and recently winning the Super Bowl.

 
I'll add my opinion FWIW.

Established starting QBs that are relatively unchallengeable for the position can cost upwards of 1/8th of a team's salary cap space. Elite QBs can burn up to 1/6th of that space. That's not on one position - that's on one player. To make the rest of the team competitive teams cannot afford to expend a whole lot more cap space on that single position. The days of Morrall backing up Unitas and then Griese, of Kubiak backing up Elway, etc are long gone.

The closest we've seen is Rodgers picked to back up Favre. Then we've seen NE picking guys like Mallet relatively early to back up Brady - but both those picks were made by far-sighted GMs who saw way too much value drop and refused to think conventionally. Even Rivers being picked in SD with Brees on the roster was due more to questions about Brees to become one of those unchallengeable guys.

So if a team has a QB that they consider unchallengeable - or relatively so - they are reluctant to burn a lot of cap, even at today's rookie cap limits on another QB. Plus it can create dissension if a QB controversy breaks out later.

One can make an argument that a higher draft pick can be trained into a marketable commodity later on, but then the team has to commit to training them and then being able to recover both the draft pick and the training time/cost on a more favorable draft pick. We've seen how difficult that is, though teams can do it at times.

But drafting a QB goes deeper than that. Teams rely on backup QBs to do more than hold a clipboard until an emergency comes up. They have to have credible arms/football intelligence/talent to assist in training other positions in OTAs, TC, and PS when they have to take a lot of reps, and during the season when prepping for next Sunday they may have to credibly run the scout team for the D. These guys are also sounding boards for the starters during practice and games, and do extensive film study looking for flaws in the other team's D. Hell, even holding for the K is an important task. Ask Tony Romo. Those are very important to critical tasks for the team.

So most times higher round picks on QBs indicate a team may be looking for their next starter - with the few notable exceptions, teams drafting QBs late are looking for a cheap but very important cog in the machine. I think some guys like writers don't understand how important the backup QB is to the team even if they don't take a single regular season game time snap. They aren't just the guy who has to step in because the starter got his bell rung - they do a whole lot more, and it is very valuable to the team.

It's critical to get the right guy for the job. Look at a guy like Sorgi who backed up Manning for years. Certainly not starter quality by any stretch, but very valuable to IND. Flynn has shown he struggles being THE guy, but adds great value to GB and can run the system very well in an emergency.

And every once in a great while - certainly the exception to the rule - those late guys can expand into starter/unchallengeable quality players. But that's icing on the cake, and almost certainly not why they were drafted initially.

So just because a team burns a late pick on a QB, it doesn't mean it is throwing that pick away. Only someone unfamiliar and uneducated with football would think that player doesn't add significant value - even if he doesn't play. Teams need the right guy in that role. So they use draft picks on them, even if the players may be more flawed. A guy in Emery's position ought to understand this if lunkheads like me can.

 
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Most late round qb's need coached up and development, it's why they fall so far. Management finds these types interesting, but when they actually get onto the field for camp these guys get easily forgotten about because they do not help coaches win and keep their jobs. If they do get a shot that opportunity may not be more than one game...or even one half...when they haven't really been coached in months because the staff has been focused on getting the teams starter ready.

Emery may have the right conclusion, but I think it is a product of a poor process.
This is my take as well. How much "development" actually goes on? Seems like much of it is running scout teams for the starters and being the understudy to the starter. If he happens to develop by accident, great. If not, draft another JAG next year and see who floats or sinks.

So, I think there's a bit of a false premise involved as well. New England didn't take Brady in the 6th to develop into their starter. Guys taken that late in the draft are taken because the NFL does need bodies at a certain point just for depth. You take a guy that late expecting little more that that he might be able to push last year's #3 off the roster. You aren't taking him with this grand master plan to polish him into your next franchise QB. Had Bledsoe not gotten hurt, would Brady have ever beaten him out of the #1 spot in a training camp? And if the Pats ever got ready to move on from Bledsoe-the-starter due to salary or age, wouldn't they have drafted a guy (early in the draft, BTW) in anticipation of that move rather than saying "Hey, we've got that Brady kid from the 6th round that's never played, let's roll with him"?

 
Bronco Billy said:
...

So most times higher round picks on QBs indicate a team may be looking for their next starter - with the few notable exceptions, teams drafting QBs late are looking for a cheap but very important cog in the machine. I think some guys like writers don't understand how important the backup QB is to the team even if they don't take a single regular season game time snap. They aren't just the guy who has to step in because the starter got his bell rung - they do a whole lot more, and it is very valuable to the team.

It's critical to get the right guy for the job. Look at a guy like Sorgi who backed up Manning for years. Certainly not starter quality by any stretch, but very valuable to IND. Flynn has shown he struggles being THE guy, but adds great value to GB and can run the system very well in an emergency.

...

So just because a team burns a late pick on a QB, it doesn't mean it is throwing that pick away. Only someone unfamiliar and uneducated with football would think that player doesn't add significant value - even if he doesn't play. Teams need the right guy in that role. So they use draft picks on them, even if the players may be more flawed. A guy in Emery's position ought to understand this if lunkheads like me can.
I think you are overestimating the importance of backups a bit in terms of a team's draft day focus. As in-coming rookies, uncertainty exists for all facets of a player's game. So I don't think GM's are drafting guys late in the draft believing that these guys are uniquely suited to be backups or to provide some invaluable off-the-field service to the team 5 years from now as a steady veteran confidant for some future rookie phenom. Flynn came back to GB because he's a known veteran commodity. Ignoring the difference in reasoning between bringing him back and drafting him is a mistake in my mind. I suspect that it's similar with Sorgi. The guys who stick around like that do so because they developed into that AFTER they were drafted. They've proven that they bring some added benefit over some other guy who might also be a candidate to hold the clipboard. But they are completely replaceable from the pool of veteran journeymen who float around the league. There is no reason to spend a draft pick on someone hoping that he might become that down the road. Why would you spend a pick on a guy you are certain lacks starter skill but you hope develops into a reliable journeyman QB when you can take less risk and just go sign one who has proven himself? You instead spend the pick on a guy who hasn't disproven himself as starter quality and might, despite long odds, be that lotto ticket.

The GM's know the odds are long on these late round players emerging. But that doesn't mean they still aren't deciding between these guys based on which one they think has an even slightly better chance of emerging as a contributor on the field. Slightly better chance being the operative phrase. The GM's know that they are likely drafting backups or future cuts at this point simply because the odds favor that. But the ranks of the backups are comprised of nothing more than guys who have shown they aren't good enough to start but are better than the guys who weren't even that good and got cut. So at the end of the day, the teams are still drafting guys in the 7th round based on their potential for on-the-field contribution...it's much longer odds. But it's relative. A guy with a 0.5% of becoming a starter is twice as likely as a guy with a 0.25%, chance.

 
Bronco Billy said:
So just because a team burns a late pick on a QB, it doesn't mean it is throwing that pick away. Only someone unfamiliar and uneducated with football would think that player doesn't add significant value - even if he doesn't play. Teams need the right guy in that role. So they use draft picks on them, even if the players may be more flawed. A guy in Emery's position ought to understand this if lunkheads like me can.
Solid post BB.A part of the equation you do not address is the opportunity cost of selecting that late round quarterback that a GM is bringing in primarily or largely for his intangibles. Also, wouldn't a veteran QB have a much better "success rate" in all of the non-playing roles that a quarterback is expected to fill?

The main reason, not discussed much in this thread thus far, that these late round quarterbacks may be less appealing to GM's than they were a decade ago is the roster crunch many head coaches face on game days with the need for more defensive backs (and wide receivers, defenive lineman, etc) being needed on the field. How many teams only kept two quarterbacks on their roster a decade ago?

 
You make some good points, but a lot of your post seems to be focused on how it was under the old CBA. Whiffing on a first round QB is nowhere near as financially crippling as it was a few years ago, and it can be huge salary cap advantage if you hit on one.

Teams have been overdrafting QBs for the last few years and I expect that it will continue under the new CBA. If that is Emery's point, I can see it. When a position is overdrafted, it often presents less value to draft that position.
Right. I expect smart teams to move up from the 2nd to the late 1st to grab their QB so they can get that cheap 5th year option. If the 49ers and Bengals had done that they would have an extra year to decide what to do with Kaepernick and Dalton.
Nice job Vikings. :thumbup:

 
I find it interesting that this year there are a significant number of Day 3 QB prospects who have development potential:

A.J. McCarron

Zach Mettenberger

Tom Savage

Tajh Boyd

Logan Thomas

Stephen Morris

David Fales

Aaron Murray

Brett Smith

Bryn Renner

Jeff Mathews

Garrett Gilbert

Obviously not all of these players will be drafted; however Emery's study from 2006 onward concluded that it was a waste of time to attempt to develop a QB drafted after Round 3, so it will be interesting to see if any of these players can be developed.

 
Bears pick David Fales in 6th

By Michael C. Wright | ESPN.com May, 10, 2014

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bears/post/_/id/4692111/bears-pick-david-fales-in-6th

LAKE FOREST, Ill. -- The Chicago Bears used the first of their two sixth-round picks Saturday to add a developmental quarterback in San Jose State’s David Fales with the 183rd overall pick.

My take: Perhaps general manager Phil Emery threw up the smokescreen during a pre-draft press conference recently saying that based on a study he recently conducted, the developmental quarterback theory doesn’t “hold water.” Emery mentioned that if a team is looking to take a quarterback, it should do it in the first and second rounds. So Emery went against his own logic in selecting Fales, and for good reason: the quarterback is a talented player.

Fales lacks arm strength, but like former backup Josh McCown, he makes up for it with strong anticipation skills and football smarts.

Fales also possesses some mobility and the courage to stand in the pocket and deliver in heavy pressure. Another attribute that likely attracted the Bears to Fales is his reputation for being coachable and having a strong work ethic, which would make the pairing with head coach Marc Trestman ideal considering Fales is a developmental prospect.

Because of the Fales’ good-to-average arm, smarts and anticipation skills, scouts projected him to be a fit in more of a West Coast type of system, which is exactly what the Bears utilize under Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer. Interestingly, Fales and Derek Carr, a second-round pick of the Oakland Raiders, are the only NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks to throw for more than 4,000 during the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Durability/productivity: The first quarterback drafted by the Bears since 2011, Fales started in all 45 games he played in during college, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 12,727 yards, 101 touchdowns and 35 interceptions. Fales played just two seasons at San Jose State (played two years before at Monterey Peninsula College), but shares or owns 28 school, game, season or career records.

 
As I mentioned earlier, most teams don't draft late round QBs with the intent for them to step in and become a starter, so those that end up starting become more of a windfall than anything else. Similarly, without comparing the hit rate for late round picks at other positions (and if we want to take it another level, how they fared vs. earlier round picks as well), all of this is only a puzzle piece of a much bigger picture. And those QBs that do pan out and start can save HUGE money compared to top of the draft picks.

 
Following up on what I posted before, here's what I researched. I went back to the drafts from 2000-2013 and looked at CareerAV for each player drafted per PFR. The first bucket is those players drafted in rounds 4 or later.

Position, Total CareerAV, # Players Drafted, Average CareerAV per player

G 1431 106 13.5T 1361 137 9.93P 245 25 9.8DE 1751 181 9.67C 529 55 9.62LB 2095 259 8.09DT 1264 160 7.9K 224 30 7.47RB 1067 177 6.03QB 571 106 5.39WR 1395 271 5.15DB 1535 424 3.62TE 504 143 3.52FB 89 35 2.54The other bucket are players drafted in rounds 1-3 over the same timeframe . . .

Position, Total CareerAV, # Players Drafted, Average CareerAV per player

C 740 19 38.9T 3026 93 32.5G 1450 46 31.5QB 1975 71 27.8RB 2705 105 25.8K 73 3 24.3LB 4099 173 23.7DE 3200 139 23.0DT 2364 111 21.3WR 3812 183 20.8DB 5428 278 19.5TE 1077 70 15.4FB 37 4 9.25P 25 3 8.33We can debate whether CareerAV is a so so metric, but those are the numbers. Will have to let this sink in to see what it shows . . .

 
95% of 6th and 7th round QB's will be absolutely worthless, but it's that other 5% that is like winning the lottery. The average looks bad but if you hit it's a jackpot.

 
Interesting stuff Anarchy.

My interpretation of this is similar to what I saw from the other study, which is that offensive linemen have the highest probability of all positions to be long term starters for the team drafting them. Defensive Ends had .05 higher career av then the centers, which is nearly identical.

For skill players drafted after round 3 the RB were more successful than the QB, WR or TE (TE was the worst of all positions besides FB) but in the 1st 3 rounds the QB do better than the other positions followed by RB.

The TE do poorly in both ranges but a TE drafted in the 1st 3 rounds is on average going to produce 4 times as much AV as a TE drafted later than this.

 
Scouting must be getting better because these are the QB's with at least 5 career TD's drafted in the 4th or later since 2006 (sorted by most career TD's):

From To Draft Tm Lg G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Y/A Yds AY/A ANY/A Y/G W L T1 B. Gradkowski 2006 2014 6-194 TOT NFL 37 20 375 709 52.89 4057 21 24 65.8 53 5.72 333 4.79 4.02 109.6 6 14 02 Tyler Thigpen 2007 2014 7-217 TOT NFL 29 12 275 509 54.03 3222 21 18 72.5 35 6.33 221 5.56 4.80 111.1 1 11 03 Kirk Cousins 2012 2014 4-102 WAS NFL 14 9 240 407 58.97 3030 18 19 77.5 16 7.44 129 6.23 5.69 216.4 2 7 04 Matt Flynn 2008 2014 7-209 TOT NFL 53 7 219 357 61.34 2541 17 11 85.9 39 7.12 209 6.68 5.50 47.9 3 4 05 John Skelton 2010 2013 5-155 TOT NFL 20 17 320 602 53.16 3707 15 25 63.0 47 6.16 325 4.79 3.94 185.4 8 9 06 Z.Mettenberger 2014 2014 6-178 OTI NFL 7 6 107 179 59.78 1412 8 7 83.4 18 7.89 138 7.02 5.68 201.7 0 6 07 Troy Smith 2007 2010 5-174 TOT NFL 20 8 121 234 51.71 1734 8 5 78.5 23 7.41 142 7.13 5.94 86.7 4 4 08 Curtis Painter 2009 2013 6-201 TOT NFL 14 8 148 287 51.57 1681 6 13 57.6 20 5.86 126 4.24 3.55 120.1 0 8 09 Josh Johnson 2009 2014 5-160 TOT NFL 29 5 96 177 54.24 1042 5 10 57.7 17 5.89 99 3.91 3.06 35.9 0 5 0http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1920&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=Y&is_hof=&pos_is_qb=Y&pos_is_rb=Y&pos_is_wr=Y&pos_is_te=Y&pos_is_e=Y&pos_is_t=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_ol=Y&pos_is_dt=Y&pos_is_de=Y&pos_is_dl=Y&pos_is_ilb=Y&pos_is_olb=Y&pos_is_lb=Y&pos_is_cb=Y&pos_is_s=Y&pos_is_db=Y&pos_is_k=Y&pos_is_p=Y&c1stat=pass_td&c1comp=gt&c1val=0&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5comp=&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=&order_by=pass_td&draft=1&draft_year_min=2006&draft_year_max=2015&type=&draft_round_min=4&draft_round_max=7&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=0&draft_league_id=&draft_team_id=&college_id=all&conference=any&draft_pos_is_qb=Y

 
Teams do appear to be hitting on 3rd round QB - two, possibly three (Mallett) starters out of the 9 drafted since 2006:

Code:
 	                From 	To 	Draft 	Tm 	Lg 	G 	GS 	Cmp 	Att 	Cmp% 	Yds 	TD 	Int 	Rate 	Sk 	Y/A 	Yds 	AY/A 	ANY/A 	Y/G 	W 	L 	T1 	Russell Wilson 	2012 	2014 	3-75 	SEA 	NFL 	48 	48 	794 	1252 	63.42 	9950 	72 	26 	98.6 	119 	7.95 	717 	8.16 	6.93 	207.3 	36 	12 	02 	Nick Foles 	2012 	2014 	3-88 	PHI 	NFL 	28 	24 	550 	893 	61.59 	6753 	46 	17 	94.2 	57 	7.56 	378 	7.74 	6.87 	241.2 	15 	9 	03 	Mike Glennon 	2013 	2014 	3-73 	TAM 	NFL 	19 	18 	364 	619 	58.80 	4025 	29 	15 	83.7 	56 	6.50 	405 	6.35 	5.22 	211.8 	5 	13 	04 	Trent Edwards 	2007 	2012 	3-92 	TOT 	NFL 	38 	33 	563 	929 	60.60 	6033 	26 	30 	75.5 	69 	6.49 	482 	5.60 	4.73 	158.8 	14 	19 	05 	Colt McCoy 	2010 	2014 	3-85 	TOT 	NFL 	33 	25 	501 	831 	60.29 	5458 	25 	23 	78.2 	76 	6.57 	447 	5.92 	4.93 	165.4 	7 	18 	06 	C. Whitehurst 	2006 	2014 	3-81 	TOT 	NFL 	20 	9 	189 	340 	55.59 	2131 	10 	6 	77.0 	31 	6.27 	162 	6.06 	5.12 	106.6 	2 	7 	07 	Brodie Croyle 	2006 	2010 	3-85 	KAN 	NFL 	18 	10 	181 	319 	56.74 	1669 	8 	9 	67.8 	26 	5.23 	168 	4.46 	3.64 	92.7 	0 	10 	08 	Ryan Mallett 	2011 	2014 	3-74 	TOT 	NFL 	7 	2 	42 	79 	53.16 	417 	2 	3 	61.0 	1 	5.28 	5 	4.08 	3.96 	59.6 	1 	1 	09 	K. O'Connell 	2008 	2011 	3-94 	TOT 	NFL 	2 	0 	4 	6 	66.67 	23 	0 	0 	73.6 	1 	3.83 	2 	3.83 	3.00 	11.5 	0 	0 	0
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=1920&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_qb=Y&pos_is_rb=Y&pos_is_wr=Y&pos_is_te=Y&pos_is_e=Y&pos_is_t=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_ol=Y&pos_is_dt=Y&pos_is_de=Y&pos_is_dl=Y&pos_is_ilb=Y&pos_is_olb=Y&pos_is_lb=Y&pos_is_cb=Y&pos_is_s=Y&pos_is_db=Y&pos_is_k=Y&pos_is_p=Y&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5comp=&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=&order_by=pass_td&draft=1&draft_year_min=2006&draft_year_max=2015&type=&draft_round_min=3&draft_round_max=3&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=0&draft_league_id=&draft_team_id=&college_id=all&conference=any&draft_pos_is_qb=Y
 

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