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Is Hakeem Nicks no longer a WR1? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter WildGeneral
- Start date
pantagrapher
Footballguy
Figure in the YAC and it's a wash. Nicks is not more of a downfield threat than Cruz.
faulkfan
Footballguy
1999 39 passes for 677 yards and eight touchdownsCruz should surpass this, but Hakim was no slouch. And you still can't argue that Cruz is getting the #2 CB at best and not having the safety rolling over to double him in 90% of the cases. Cruz is doing a great job...I wish Nicks would get more love, but each one opens room for the other.
doublavae02
Footballguy
In one league, I have nicks, dez, stevie, fitzgerald and santonio holmes...it has been frustrating owning all 5. Does that mean I will never own any of them again?? No, I understand you have to take the good with the bad as far as #1's go. There are going to be alot of games where burress outscores holmes, cruz/manningham beat out nicks, laurent robinson outscores dez (almost every game actually)...you get the picture. If this is the new trend, we will see #2 WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds over the #1 guy?? Doubtful.
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Well said.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I own Nicks in a start 2 WR 14-team .5ppr league. WR14 is RWhite averaging 13.12 ppg. Nicks is a few spots behind averaging 12.98. (Cruz is WR5 at 15.94). So yes, Nicks has been hurt but when he's in there he is producing bottom tier WR1 numbers. Not what you drafted him for, but good enough to win with if you built a solid team. Good players go average/above-average every year. Deal with it. 
Hank Mardukas
Footballguy
I've been disappointed with Nicks this year, but it's still pretty nice to be able to plug him in and know the 10 pts will be there. Not many players you can say that for.
I drafted Nicks and Manningham and expected big things from both of them. I was lucky enough to grab Cruz off of waivers early in the season. Cruz has been producing like I expected Nicks to, and Nicks has been putting up numbers I expected from Manningham. So I've been happy starting Nicks and Cruz with Manningham on the bench.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
I realize it's only one week, but have to feel a little better seeing Stevie Johnson do well against Revis with the Fitzpatrick/Spiller combo behind him. Eli/Ahmad (to a lesser extent, Jacobs) inspire more confidence than those two
Dought Man
Footballguy
Cruz is going to lead lots of lucky fantasy teams to titles. The guy is going to have an all-time great end to the season.
doowain
Footballguy
Not getting the best corner on the other team isn't a knock on his skills.9/238/3TDThat's what he's done in two games vs. Nnamdi this year. I don't care who is covering him, his separation skills are legit. Not saying he's elite by any means, but you don't have to be in the Giants offense.ETA: You would think the attention that Cruz is drawing would benefit Nicks, but it hasn't. Seems like Eli looks for Cruz any time he needs a big time completion.
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sbonomo
Footballguy
very good point but i could see cruz, J. Nelson, etc being drafted over suspect #1's like rice and Harvin.....
doublavae02
Footballguy
I agree, however, what I meant was that you won't see cruz taken before nicks...nelson before jennings...d nelson before stevie...etc.
Mango
Footballguy
I've owned Cruz since week 3. I also drafted Manningham with confidence. And I owned Nicks in 2009 and 2010 and still believe in his ability. In short, I've followed Manning and the NYG WRs over the past 3 years. Cruz is the real deal. I saw that in the 2010 preseason when as a rookie Cruz torched the Jets starters for 3 TD and 145 yards. (Note that Cruz's rare accomplishment was mostly underreported or dismissed by the press.) We've seen Cruz repeatedly catch the deep ball in 2011. We've seen Cruz successfully play the slot role. We've seen Cruz successfully play Manningham's role. We've seen Cruz beat single and double coverage against good defenders. Cruz has demonstrated impressive versatility as a WR.
I believe the reason Nicks is posting reduced stats is because Cruz is a smarter player, creating more from his opportunities and leaving less for Nicks. Cruz reacts as quickly to a defense as his QB, earning Manning's trust. Cruz makes excellent reads (ala his 72 yard TD play against the Saints). And Cruz has superior physical intelligence, ie, he knows how to use his entire body (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou-WRivyEI8) to make plays. In my opinion, Cruz has a greater football IQ, hence his greater efficiency and productivity.
Cruz has demonstrated this week after week. Consequently, Nicks value and upside have diminished.
Dylude
Footballguy
To answer the original question, I'll ask a question: What other WR-1's get outproduced by a teammate 5 weeks in a row?
Add Mike Wallace to this discussion because Antonio Brown is much more complete as a WR and finally the Steelers are gameplanning that way.
I sold on Nicks two weeks ago and traded for Lloyd. To me, Nicks has taken a double negative, he has a #2 getting #1 production and on top of that Nicks is still drawing the better coverage. Week 16 I bet Revis still locks up Nicks and Victor Cruz abuses Cromartie or the 2nd year Boise State corner.
Add Mike Wallace to this discussion because Antonio Brown is much more complete as a WR and finally the Steelers are gameplanning that way.
I sold on Nicks two weeks ago and traded for Lloyd. To me, Nicks has taken a double negative, he has a #2 getting #1 production and on top of that Nicks is still drawing the better coverage. Week 16 I bet Revis still locks up Nicks and Victor Cruz abuses Cromartie or the 2nd year Boise State corner.
Shutout
Footballguy
biggamer3
Footballguy
Yeah, extremely clear
Jed
Footballguy
Smith and Cruz are completely different receivers. Smith is a possession/slot receiver that was forced into a bigger role in his big year. Cruz is dynamic. Dynamic enough to hurt Nicks value. Nicks is an absolute stud and will still have games like today, but he won't get force fed by Eli like he was in 2010. I think they will sign Smith next year for the slot, and Cruz and Nicks on the outside. Get any semblance of a running game and this offense will rival GB's in 2012.
TheFootballJesus
Footballguy
They'd be potent but Eli Manning is not Aaron Rodgers and probably never will be.
Jed
Footballguy
That's why they would need a running game, Rodgers doesn't need one. Eli is improving though.
biggamer3
Footballguy
Unless Eli learns how to run for 4 first downs a game as Rodgers routinely does, he will never be near the threat that these Packers are.
im only talking redraft. but i think the answer is obvious this year. just look at the stats
shadyridr
Footballguy
they both seem like wr1s to me'cvnpoka said:im only talking redraft. but i think the answer is obvious this year. just look at the stats
faulkfan
Footballguy
I'm hoping every defense in the league thinks Cruz is the WR 1 so Nicks gets the crappy CB2 on him with no safety help. He will go crazy and as good as you think Cruz is when he gets the weakest defender on him every play, Nicks will be even better with that kind of coverage. Granted he still needs to stop dropping passes, but I would love to see teams make it a point to stop Cruz and give Nicks some room.
Mr. Mojo
Footballguy
I agree that Cruz will likely be overrated next year.When I see a lot of fluky, long scoring plays, they often don't happen the next year.We'll see.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Just an FYI for the "I won't take him ever again, no way now how!!" crowd...
Nicks has almost identical targets, catches, yards per game and total yards as he had a year ago(more yardage on less catches, actually) when he was everyone's darling. The primary difference between this year and last? He has roughly half the TD catches he had at present.
TDs are difficult to project under the best of circumstances and it's been pointed out repeatedly how close he's been to another handful of touchdowns in '11. Would all this hand wringing be going on if he had, say, another 3 TDs and another 6 catches overall? Answer: Unlikely.
His catch% has went down some for certain this year(55% so far, down from 61% a year ago on similar targets), but the facts remain: the Giants are pretty much built to pass, Nicks is their best WR and he's being heavily tageted(5th most per game in the league and ahead of Cruz, coming in to week 16), and if given similar targets/similar scheme going forward the TDs chances should be there for him. In any given year he's capable of double digits TDs if he converts on most of the looks he gets in the RZ. He hasn't done that as efficiently this year, but he did in '10. No reason to think he isn't a candidate to do it again.
Nicks has almost identical targets, catches, yards per game and total yards as he had a year ago(more yardage on less catches, actually) when he was everyone's darling. The primary difference between this year and last? He has roughly half the TD catches he had at present.
TDs are difficult to project under the best of circumstances and it's been pointed out repeatedly how close he's been to another handful of touchdowns in '11. Would all this hand wringing be going on if he had, say, another 3 TDs and another 6 catches overall? Answer: Unlikely.
His catch% has went down some for certain this year(55% so far, down from 61% a year ago on similar targets), but the facts remain: the Giants are pretty much built to pass, Nicks is their best WR and he's being heavily tageted(5th most per game in the league and ahead of Cruz, coming in to week 16), and if given similar targets/similar scheme going forward the TDs chances should be there for him. In any given year he's capable of double digits TDs if he converts on most of the looks he gets in the RZ. He hasn't done that as efficiently this year, but he did in '10. No reason to think he isn't a candidate to do it again.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Is part of one game all it takes?
flapgreen
Footballguy
An entire season? Total fantasy points between Nicks and Cruz aren't even close.
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Are you arguing that Nicks isn't covered by the #1 cornerback or that Cruz has scored way more fantasy points?
flapgreen
Footballguy
The reason Nicks hasn't played as well as Cruz isn't because Niicks was covered by the top corner.
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I've watched every Giants game and I think your partly right -- there is also the fact that Cruz has been absolutely lights out and has frankly outplayed Nicks for much of the season. Nicks has had concentration lapses and has dropped several TDs, which is strange because he hasn't really done that before. But Nicks is going to be undervalued going into next year, I think he'll have a nice bounce back season.
Wait...Did I just see Cruz beat a double coverage? Whey would they double him if they can double the more dangerous Nicks?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Interesting that in order to build Cruz up, many feel that they need to tear Nicks down. Can't they both be elite WR's (if you believe that Cruz is one)?
What has changed between this year and last for Nicks, other than TD grabs? Nothing. If you ranked him as a top-5 or top-10 dynasty WR and move him down after this season, I think you're kind of missing the point of dynasty. He still has that talent. Cruz being talented and a threat to take it to the house at any time does nothing to Nicks' talent.
What has changed between this year and last for Nicks, other than TD grabs? Nothing. If you ranked him as a top-5 or top-10 dynasty WR and move him down after this season, I think you're kind of missing the point of dynasty. He still has that talent. Cruz being talented and a threat to take it to the house at any time does nothing to Nicks' talent.
I think Nicks is an elite talent; however, Cruz being there may affect Nick's production - Nicks just doesn't see quite as many targets, so I can't knock someone for dropping Nicks a few spots. I do think things will even out a bit next year with Nicks performing as well or better than Cruz.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
He has almost identical targets per game as last year. Giants are built to throw now. I don't think his targets will suffer much with Cruz on the team(since they haven't so far).As you pointed out, the only real difference between this year and last with Nicks is the lack of TDs(and slight downgrade in his catch%). Cruz being on the team doesn't change his value in the slightest in my mind. He was productive a year ago with Smith/Manningham playing opposite him and scoring well. He was productive the year prior, as a rookie, playing with busted toes and sharing looks with 2-3 other guys. He's generally been productive this year with Cruz going nuts opposite him and dealing with leg issues most of the year, etc. etc. etc. As long as the Giants continue with their current scheme on offense Nicks is going to be just fine. He's talented and he's heavily targeted in an offense that throws a lot. Even if Cruz maintains his level of play, that in no way automatically precludes Nicks from improving on his 2011 production.Bottom line: If Nicks had caught half the TDs he's dropped this year we wouldn't be hearing half the b#@$ing that's been going on about him. That's pretty much the only significant difference between is '10 and his '11.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Exactly. Cruz is proving to be an excellent and exciting WR for the Giants. But it doesn't have any effect on Nicks' talent, and shouldn't negatively impact his opportunities. He's still a top-5 dynasty WR in my book.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Nicks!!!
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I hope that this proves to be a popular decision. I think Nicks will have a huge bounce back year, as Cruz rightfully draws more and more coverage away from him. I think Cruz will get his, but will become less consistent. This will be a tough season to follow up, honestly.Oh, and I'd like to throw in that this gives some merit to paying attention to preseason games. I remember watching Cruz carve up the Jets (possibly) in preseason before getting injured last year.
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