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Is it just me or is this some of the worst advice (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter sholditch
- Start date
Foosball God
Foos
Corey Dillon isn't the starter in New England?
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diesel7982
Footballguy
"You’ll thank yourself in 2009."
For what? Spending 4 years with a mediocre fantasy team?
For what? Spending 4 years with a mediocre fantasy team?
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
While I agree that you'd be much better off taking a Peyton Manning and being set at QB for YEARS AND YEARS, I disagree about taking those guys in the first round of a start-up dynasty draft.
But that is the challenge of dynasty over redraft. You don't get a "do-over" if the team you drafted doesn't work out. You need to not only have the abaility to draft well, but the foresight to set yourself up for the future. So, yes Terrell Owens (ex.) would be a better pick than say Tatum Bell (ex.).
But that is the challenge of dynasty over redraft. You don't get a "do-over" if the team you drafted doesn't work out. You need to not only have the abaility to draft well, but the foresight to set yourself up for the future. So, yes Terrell Owens (ex.) would be a better pick than say Tatum Bell (ex.).
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Kit Fisto
Footballguy
That's the challenge of dynasty, bro. Build yourself out of mediocrity.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
It's not quite that easy in dynasty, where guys like Tatum Bell, Willie Parker and Sam Gado come and go, but stalwarts like Manning, Brady, Holt, Owens, etc. are the cornerstones of your franchise FOR YEARS AND YEARS...
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
Just to play devil's advocate though...it's a lot easier to find another RB in the rookie draft than it is to find a QB or WR who will produce instant starter points in a couple seasons.
A player could've drafted Peyton Manning, Torry Holt, and a Chris Brown in the first three rounds. With a high enough pick, they could've grabbed Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams in last year's rookie draft and been fine at RB.
A player could've drafted Peyton Manning, Torry Holt, and a Chris Brown in the first three rounds. With a high enough pick, they could've grabbed Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams in last year's rookie draft and been fine at RB.
sholditch
Footballguy
right but this is for this year and he is advocating using a 1.3 on either a QB or WR, which I just don't get. I can maybe understand Manning or Palmer, but actually, no way, not even them. To suggest any WR at that point is lunacy imho.
BTW, for those who asked, this is the "publisher" of fanball.com. He writes a lot of their strategy articles.
BTW, for those who asked, this is the "publisher" of fanball.com. He writes a lot of their strategy articles.
JayMan
Footballguy
Same guy could haved picked JJ Arrington with a top pick last year (out of the top2 picks I mean)... lovely...
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JayMan
Footballguy
Believe me - I know - I've got Palmer / Holt / Heap (TE required) in one of my big money [DYNASTY] league with only James and Portis as my RBs... And I'll be adding BMarshall later on the rookie draft to go along with VJackson...But the simple Supply/Demand laws still apply here... in your initial [DYNASTY] draft - just pick Clinton Portis or Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown or Cadillac Williams or Reggie Bush with your top pick - and place him on the trading block... you'll be offered Holt and Brady fom him (two guys that are "advise here" to be your cornerstones) round 2 and round 5 type...
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Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Yes, the supply/demand theory still works here, but RBs burn out much, much faster, while QBs and WRs have longer "shelf lives". You secure Peyton Manning for example, and you'll never worry about drafting a QB again for years.
JayMan
Footballguy
I concur... but the simple fact that most FF players drool over the possibility of having Shaun Alexander on their team should make you think about drafting him in an initial [DYNASTY] league and deal him for Chad Johnson and Reggie Brown afterwards...It is a well known fact that QB and WR have career spans (and thus elite FF stats) that exceeds their RBs counterparts...Best Post of the Day!
JayMan
Footballguy
I think we are saying the same thing here KF
I'm just stating that one should use leverage by drafting a young stud RB early on and deal him for a QB/WR or WR/WR combo...
I agree with the advice. If you are in a startup dynasty league I would much rather lock up younger stud WRs and QB and grab upside RBs later as there will be a whole new crop of RBs coming along the next year.
RB shelf lives are extremely short.
This is pretty much the opposite advice I would give in a redraft as you are only worrying about the current year.
RB shelf lives are extremely short.
This is pretty much the opposite advice I would give in a redraft as you are only worrying about the current year.
sholditch
Footballguy
again, this is the advice for what to do with the 1.3, not how to draft. I agree that after a certain number of "sure thing" rbs like LT, Portis, SA, LJ, and a few others are off the board grab a WR. That's why I grabbed CJ with my 2.6 in a startup dynasty 12-teamer (team 1 in sig), but that's my point. You can get a top WR with a 2nd round pick. Or you take Portis or SA and trade them for CJ or Steve Smith or Fitz + someone after the draft. I agree with the basic notion of WRs and QBs having longer shelf lives than RBs. I just think not taking a RB at 1.3 with the choices available is kinda crazy, considering you can find someone in just about any league willing to pay a big price for any of the top 4 RBs. I don't think anyone sane would draft any of the RBs mentioned above at 1.3 overall in a startup dynasty. The question is essentially whether you would draft anyone over LT, LJ, SA, and Portis, when it's a given you have 2 of those 4 to choose from.Do you guys even play in dynasty leagues? Getting a 7-10 year QB is golden. It's not just that he gives you such a long production life, it's that he saves you many drat picks over the years. If you have a Peyton Manning, you don't need to waste higher round picks chasing hit-or-miss QB prospects for years. The problem is even worse at WR, where you can wait for years before knowing whether a guy is worthwhile or not. At RB there is a lot more churn, but at the same time, there's churn for everyone, and hitting the jackpot at RB only pays off for about 3-4 years in 99% of cases. If you can set yourself up with good foundations at QB and WR, you will have enough draft picks left to find RBs. Of course, it's only one strategy, but it's a good one.
EBF
Footballguy
Larry Fitzgerald is my #1 ranked player for PPR dynasty leagues. That said, there's no sense drafting him that high when you can simply trade back. I don't think it's a stretch to say Fitzgerald will be more valuable than Larry Johnson for the next eight years. Johnson's value lies mostly in the short term. It's really a matter of philosophy. If you're a "win now at all costs" type then obviously you don't want to take Chad Johnson over Shaun Alexander. That doesn't mean Johnson isn't the more valuable player.
Advice like this had two folks in front of me in a start up Dynasty Draft take QBs -- somehow dropping Portis to me at 8 -- I got Chad Johnson on the turn.
Dynasty is an interesting strategic pickle. Depending on scoring you could argue jumping of the RB train - just make sure the next picks COUNT -- you want to build for the future, sure -- but you still wanna havce a shot at winning now, IMO.
Dynasty is an interesting strategic pickle. Depending on scoring you could argue jumping of the RB train - just make sure the next picks COUNT -- you want to build for the future, sure -- but you still wanna havce a shot at winning now, IMO.
JayMan
Footballguy
We're all saying the same thing here... grab the stud RB at 1.03 - use leverage provided with that pick later on if you wish to get your combo studQB/goodWR or goodQB/studWR... 2for1 - on a [DYNASTY] roster is very important...
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
fair 'nuff....I think we are saying the same thing here KF
EBF
Footballguy
This is the strategy I've adopted after suffering through a rough season with my "stud" RB crew of Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Deuce McAllister. I really like the stability of QBs and WRs in dynasty leagues, which is why I've begun to build teams around those positions.
JayMan
Footballguy
Three ranking lines are all that is needed to confirm the postings above:
Code:
name ----- '96 -'97-'98-'99--'00-'01--'02--'03--'04--'05PManning --- x - x - 7 - 4 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 2 - 2 - 3RMoss ------ x - x - 1 - 2 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 1 - 19 - 15CMartin ---- 4 - 14 - 7 - 8 - 10 - 5 - 18 - 18 - 4 - 29I think most of us would agree that the "Bad Advice" is that the guy is advocating reaching on a WR or QB in the top 3 picks of an initial dynasty.
NOT the merits of top WR/QB vs. of a lower tier RB.
Edit: Which is why I loved picking in initial drafts last year, Manning going in the top 5 was awesum for anyone picking 6th.
NOT the merits of top WR/QB vs. of a lower tier RB.
Edit: Which is why I loved picking in initial drafts last year, Manning going in the top 5 was awesum for anyone picking 6th.
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EBF
Footballguy
True, but as bad as those Manning picks may have been, wouldn't you rather have Peyton than McGahee, KJ, or JJ? I took Donovan McNabb in the second round of a Misfits draft last year. Could I have done better? Sure. I missed out on guys like LaMont Jordan and Larry Johnson. But you know what? I still have McNabb. With a guy like Manning or McNabb, the risk is almost nonexistent.I'm increasingly leaning towards a risk-aversive dynasty approach. I'll still roll the dice on a freak like Reggie Bush, but for the most part, I'm looking to bet on established talents who are good bets to sustain their productivity.
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I disagree. I MIGHT consider Larry Johnson in the top three, b/c he is young and puts me in position to win now for I'd say 2-3 more years. I would 100% avoid LT2 or Shaun Alexander, who have already played too many of their best seasons. I would probably have Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, and Eli Manning at the top of my wish list. Of course, knowing I could get these guys later, I would most likely trade way down, or out of the first round entirely.
JayMan
Footballguy
Then why not pick LT with the 1.03... trade him after the draft for Larry Fitzgerald and Eli Manning (they both won't go in the 1st round)... and still pick at your turn (2.10)?Just asking...
FUBAR
Footballguy
I have a much shorter window than that. For the next 3-5, no WR ranks in my top 5. After that, I'd definetly consider 2 QBs and 2 WRs among the top 12.Larry Fitzgerald is my #1 ranked player for PPR dynasty leagues. That said, there's no sense drafting him that high when you can simply trade back. I don't think it's a stretch to say Fitzgerald will be more valuable than Larry Johnson for the next eight years. Johnson's value lies mostly in the short term. It's really a matter of philosophy. If you're a "win now at all costs" type then obviously you don't want to take Chad Johnson over Shaun Alexander. That doesn't mean Johnson isn't the more valuable player.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't draft with an eight year window either. However, if we're talking hypothetical dynasty value then I'd certainly venture to guess that guys like Fitzgerald and Roethlisberger will still be playing in eight years.I have a much shorter window than that. For the next 3-5, no WR ranks in my top 5. After that, I'd definetly consider 2 QBs and 2 WRs among the top 12.Larry Fitzgerald is my #1 ranked player for PPR dynasty leagues. That said, there's no sense drafting him that high when you can simply trade back. I don't think it's a stretch to say Fitzgerald will be more valuable than Larry Johnson for the next eight years. Johnson's value lies mostly in the short term. It's really a matter of philosophy. If you're a "win now at all costs" type then obviously you don't want to take Chad Johnson over Shaun Alexander. That doesn't mean Johnson isn't the more valuable player.
redman
Footballguy
Weeeeeeeeeeeell, that advice certainly doesn't fall into this category.I can't beleive this comes from a publisher of a fantasy site. It's in response to a question of who to take at 1.3 in a startup dynasty.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Ok, I guess I can see that. I don't see how Fitz is the #1 player, but to each their own.EBF said:I don't draft with an eight year window either. However, if we're talking hypothetical dynasty value then I'd certainly venture to guess that guys like Fitzgerald and Roethlisberger will still be playing in eight years.FUBAR said:I have a much shorter window than that. For the next 3-5, no WR ranks in my top 5. After that, I'd definetly consider 2 QBs and 2 WRs among the top 12.EBF said:Larry Fitzgerald is my #1 ranked player for PPR dynasty leagues. That said, there's no sense drafting him that high when you can simply trade back. I don't think it's a stretch to say Fitzgerald will be more valuable than Larry Johnson for the next eight years. Johnson's value lies mostly in the short term. It's really a matter of philosophy. If you're a "win now at all costs" type then obviously you don't want to take Chad Johnson over Shaun Alexander. That doesn't mean Johnson isn't the more valuable player.sholditch said:
PackAttack
Footballguy
To argue that point, in order to have obtained Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, or Cedric Benson, they had to be at the bottom of their league the previous year...in other words their QB / WR theory will only work if you want to finish at the bottom the first few years.
That's fine too. I never said I was trading 2.10 along with 1.03. I guess I don't understand what you're saying - how is trading down from 1.03 so I can select guys like Fitz and Manning closer to where they league values them different from selecting LT and then trading him for Fitz or Mannning?JayMan said:
Well, you did pass up SA, Portis and Edge for KJ last year.
Those were all solid, proven performers with the likes of McGahee, KJ & JJ going before them. This year, guys like SJAX, Ronnie & Caddy are going before other proven performers who lack the flash and upside, but I feel are safer picks. Unfortunately, even the proven guys can fall off a cliff quickly. Look at Edge this year, lots of risk there.I'm starting to think the best thing is trading back if you don't land a top pick in an initial draft, there's such a glut of talent after the top tier is gone that if you can accumulate extra picks in the 15-40 range, you are much better off than staying put.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
The dynasty league I commish is in Year 13.
JayMan
Footballguy
We're saying the same thing here then... to either pick LT at 1.03 and trade him with leverage... or to trade down and grab both with your "new" picks...One way or the other - It's still the same - the initial thread "advice" was bad...
You'd get eaten up in my dynasty league with that mentality. This is how the team with Peyton Manning has fared:2002: 4 - 92003: 9 - 42004: 5 - 82005: 5 - 8 Bottom line is rbs win ff championships
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Not necessarily true.I've always had the RBs. It wasn't until my QB became elite that my team got over the hump and won me the title. Leaving QB points on the table with a mediocre QB only means you have to own RBs that can make up the difference. The guy who owns Peyton Manning in that league figured Manning would cover for his mediocre RBs. Nope.FTRWRTR said:
The bottom line is: Balanced teams win championships.
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