Is it time to re-think the RB-heavy early drafting strategy? (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

With the proliferation of RBBCs and the tendency of some leagues over the past 5-10 years to devalue the RB spot in an attempt at balance, is this the year that drafting 10 RBs in the first round stops? I just used Dodds' VBD application and plugged in my league's scoring system :

12 teams, 16 rounds, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 PK, 1 DST

QBs - 1 pt/50 yds passing, 1 pt/25 yds rushing, all TDs 6 pts, INT/FL -1

RBs - 1 pt/20 yds rushing, 1 pt/ 20 yds receiving (not combined), all TDs 6 pts, FL -1

WR/TE - 1 pt/15 yds receiving, all TDs 6 pts, FL-1

The switch for WR/TEs from 1 pt/20 yds to 1 pt/15 yds was done 3-4 years ago to help break the over-reliance on RBs.

Anyway, using the VBD app gave me the following top 12 players based on VBD (and FBG projections):

Brady 138

LT 131

Moss 99

A. Peterson 91

P. Manning 83

S. Jackson 80

T. Owens 79

M. Barber 76

J. Addai 74

R. Wayne 74

B. Westbrook 71

T. Romo 70

I'm sitting at 1.06 this year and with ADP showing LT/Peterson/Jackson/Westbrook/Addai as the consensus top 5, I'm starting to wonder if drafting Brady or Moss isn't a decent idea, as strange as it seems. I know FBG had Brady projected for 41 TDs, which is likely too high, but check out Manning sitting at #5 in VBD with only 31 TDs (sounds just about right) projected. Add to this that the usual fear is that drafting a QB and/or WR this high doesn't allow you to get two solid backs, but right now, ADP shows I can use 3.6 and 4.9 and get Ronnie Brown and Edgerrin James, who rank as RB16 and RB14 respectively, in this scoring system. Conversely, a guy like Gore, with a current ADP of 1.07 ranks as #21 in this scoring system, meaning he isn't even worthy of my 2nd round pick by the numbers.

In this format, what would be wrong with this strategy? :

1.6 - Moss

2.9 - Romo

3.6 - R. Brown (or B. Jacobs)

4.9 - E. James

etc... etc.... Would you be comfortable with James and Brown as your starting backfield if you had Romo and Moss (or for that matter either Brady or Peyton with TO, Wayne, Edwards, or Fitzgerald) as your QB and top WR?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

 

[Deranged Hermit]

In my main league, I'm keeping Tomlinson. After that though, unless some insane RB falls to me at 1.11, I'm probably going WR-WR. I've even toyed with the idea of going WR-QB since we score 6 pts per TD.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

 

[wraith5]

Would you be comfortable with James and Brown as your starting backfield if you had Romo and Moss (or for that matter either Brady or Peyton with TO, Wayne, Edwards, or Fitzgerald) as your QB and top WR?

Yes. There are maybe 18 guys who I think are "safe" to get the bulk of the work out of the backfield. After that it's full-on RBBC or worse, major confusion. Both of those guys make that short list. Moss and Romo are both major difference makers at their positions (although I'm a little concerned about the Romo hype at this point). If I end up being outside of the top 6 picks in my local league, I will seriously consider waiting on RB until round 3 when the rest of the league starts to focus on WR.

 

[wraith5]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

It is very possible those two guys won't still on the board in the late 3rd at this point. Maybe Brees. But I agree that's the spot to take them if available.

 

[Abraham]

It can be done, but you would have to get lucky in rounds 2-5 to get the RBs you need. The scenario you outline is fine IF you end up with guys like Brown and James. But what if the RBs you end up with are Lendale White and Fred Taylor? Would you still be excited about your chances?

 

[Phurfur]

Anyone who drafts by predetermined positions is missing the point of the FF hobby. With all the posting and information about "Value Based Drafting" I can't believe people still draft by position.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

not really - You can get the follow at decent value this season:hasslbeckbulgerBigBen (again)PalmerMcNabbtons of talent there

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Anyone who drafts by predetermined positions is missing the point of the FF hobby. With all the posting and information about "Value Based Drafting" I can't believe people still draft by position.

Im not saying that rb-wr-wr-rb is hard and fast, but recently that's were the value has been to draft, especially with a top 5 pick. Bottom of the draft is a little different

 

[gump]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...

Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.

How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

 

[MAC_32]

Entirely depends on your league - if you're in a league in which there's talent availbale in free agency going RB heavy may not be a good idea because you can always find replacements. If you're in a league in which RB's are less plentiful and the only way to get the in-season waiver wire wonders is to have a good waiver priority then going RB heavy would more likely be beneficial. It's all about replacement value.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

After LT, Addai. ADP, and Westbrook in PPR leagues...Brady(6 pts pass TD) and Moss are definitely on the table as far as picks.

 

[David Yudkin]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

 

[Yitbos69]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

what he said........

 

[ATC1]

After LT, Addai. ADP, and Westbrook in PPR leagues...Brady(6 pts pass TD) and Moss are definitely on the table as far as picks.

It also depends on the size of the league. Larger leagues, I would feel more pressure to take a RB sooner. 16 team league at 1.05 I take Brady or Moss, I maybe looking at White and Rudi as RBs and I could of had S. Jax and Colston on the way back.

 

[maxwelledison]

I like DY's post re: Brady. I also agree that it may be time to think about WRs in the first round, but it still makes me nervous. Too many variables right now to say exactly what my draft/auction day strategy will be but I get the feeling that many Round 1 RBs are going to disappoint...Addai, S-Jax and even LT have relatively considerable downside this year in my view.

 

[Tanner9919]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

because he isn't throwing anywhere NEAR the 50 TDs he tossed last season.in fact, he's good for about half that.Peyton Manning threw 49 tds a few years ago, slipped back to 28 the following season. Moss or not, there is no way that Brady will repeat that feat. His lifetime avg is 3767 yards, 28 TDs per year..I'd factor THAT number into his 2008 stats, and see where you wind up relative to LT2 and so on..my guess is, Brady is extremely overvalued on most fantasy draft boards..there is no way the Pats can run the pass-happy offense again in 2008, Brady will get killed, you saw it happen in the SB..they'll probably move to a more balanced attack, featuring Maroney..and Moss, however good he is, will NOT come close to 23 TD's again. Factor his lifetime avg's ( 12.4 tds, 1219 yards, 77.4 rec per year) into your system, and see where he comes out....

 

[a_troll00]

Playing around with Draft Dominator, I usually see WRs I'd rather have than RBs in the second and third rounds. It really all depends on who is available in those rounds. I do imagining WRs flying off the board rather quickly this year.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

not really - You can get the follow at decent value this season:hasslbeckbulgerBigBen (again)PalmerMcNabbtons of talent there

I agree with DH for strongly disagreeing with you. Ben's draft position will average behind Brees and Romo, but there will be plenty of juxtaposition between those three in individual drafts. If you want Ben you better move early. I consider a 4th round Qb early, and I'm guessing you do too. I've spent years being last or very near last to take a QB. I've done fine (even won) with that approach. But times change. The projections make sense. I cannot remember seeing a batch of QBs like this -- Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees and Ben -- who's value (vbd approach) matches a strong likelihood (confidence in the projections) of making them worth first and second round picks in 6 pt td pass leagues, and even third rounders the latest in 4 pt leagues. I can't predict my redraft scenario this early, but today it feels like I should take one of those 5 in my first three picks. I've been fiddling with some mocks that make me more comfortable with the teams that have one of those QBs than the teams that don't. It's partially due to my confidence in the QBs separating from the field again, and it's partially due to my confidence in rounding out the rest of the roster adequately with an early QB.

 

[wraith5]

After LT, Addai. ADP, and Westbrook in PPR leagues...Brady(6 pts pass TD) and Moss are definitely on the table as far as picks.

I believe you forgot to mention Gore in your list... and actually I'd put SJax in there as well.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

It can be done, but you would have to get lucky in rounds 2-5 to get the RBs you need. The scenario you outline is fine IF you end up with guys like Brown and James. But what if the RBs you end up with are Lendale White and Fred Taylor? Would you still be excited about your chances?

Therein lies the rub, but I think in round 3, at least, I could get Edge, Parker, or Jacobs if Brown is gone. 4.09 would be where I'd worry about my RB2, but for argument's sake, let's say the worst-case scenario develops and I end up with something that looks like :QB - BradyRB - W. ParkerRB - T. JonesWR - R. WayneWR - C. JohnsonWR - H. WardAs a starting lineup? Would you feel good about that? I'm just not sure, hence the thread... I think that team could compete, but the RB inconsistency would scare the hell out of me.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Anyone who drafts by predetermined positions is missing the point of the FF hobby. With all the posting and information about "Value Based Drafting" I can't believe people still draft by position.

While I agree to an extent... I also believe that knowing your league thoroughly will often lead to predetermining where some positions get drafted. In fact, I'd call it crucial.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

That question is precisely what prompted me to start this thread. Further, if someone drafts Brady in the top 5 (entirely possible) - VBD would tell me Moss or Manning are better picks at #6 than, say, Steven Jackson or Westbrook. Now, obviously, that doesn't factor position scarcity into the equation enough with the VBD baseline unadjusted, but it was enough to make me wonder if grabbing an RB or two in the first two rounds is as big of a no-brainer as it was even just a few years ago.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Entirely depends on your league - if you're in a league in which there's talent availbale in free agency going RB heavy may not be a good idea because you can always find replacements. If you're in a league in which RB's are less plentiful and the only way to get the in-season waiver wire wonders is to have a good waiver priority then going RB heavy would more likely be beneficial. It's all about replacement value.

Open market bidding (real $$) on all free agents. Of course, 90% of the league are physicians, surgeons, and lawyers, so they're not afraid to spend. I think Ryan grant fetched $105 on the open market last year midway through the season (week 8 or 9, whenever he broke out)

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Anyone who drafts by predetermined positions is missing the point of the FF hobby. With all the posting and information about "Value Based Drafting" I can't believe people still draft by position.

While I agree to an extent... I also believe that knowing your league thoroughly will often lead to predetermining where some positions get drafted. In fact, I'd call it crucial.

here is the best point. The problem is I see some sharks in this thread teetering from the stud RB wait on QB approach. which is fine, but know your league tendencies. and capitalize on them

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Agreed. When I do my projections, Brady will be edited down to the low 30s on TD passes, but even Manning as projected (~4100 yds, 31 TDs) still is #5 according to VBD for this scoring system. According to VBD, Manning would be a legit pick at #6 and could finish as the #2 QB and still give me a better value than Westbrook, for example (devalued in our TD-heavy format.)

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

That question is precisely what prompted me to start this thread. Further, if someone drafts Brady in the top 5 (entirely possible) - VBD would tell me Moss or Manning are better picks at #6 than, say, Steven Jackson or Westbrook. Now, obviously, that doesn't factor position scarcity into the equation enough with the VBD baseline unadjusted, but it was enough to make me wonder if grabbing an RB or two in the first two rounds is as big of a no-brainer as it was even just a few years ago.

Grabbing a RB is still a no brainer.But I don't think grabbing 2 RBs as your first two picks has ever been.... not in 12 team leagues. Except for when explaining to a newer player so he/she doesnt get shorted at the key position that is RB.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Anyone who drafts by predetermined positions is missing the point of the FF hobby. With all the posting and information about "Value Based Drafting" I can't believe people still draft by position.

While I agree to an extent... I also believe that knowing your league thoroughly will often lead to predetermining where some positions get drafted. In fact, I'd call it crucial.

here is the best point. The problem is I see some sharks in this thread teetering from the stud RB wait on QB approach. which is fine, but know your league tendencies. and capitalize on them

I have a spreadsheet of how many players have been drafted at each position through any spot in the draft over the last 6 years. However, there is very little consistency from year to year as people shift with the times. We've had years where 5 QBs were taken in the first two rounds and years where the 3rd QB wasn't drafted until round 4. Here's a sampling :

QB	RB	WR/TE	K	DEF						2006						Round 1		1	10	1	0	0Round 2		1	6	5	0	0Round 3		1	4	7	0	0Round 4		0	6	6	0	0Round 5		4	3	5	0	0Round 6		2	3	7	0	0Round 7		4	6	2	0	0Round 8		1	2	7	1	1Round 9		1	3	4	2	2Round 10		1	1	5	2	3Round 11		8	1	2	1	0Round 12		1	3	4	2	2Round 13		0	2	1	3	6Round 14		1	3	5	3	0Round 15		1	1	1	3	6Round 16		1	0	1	6	4TOTAL		28	54	63	23	24						2005						Round 1		1	10	1	0	0Round 2		0	8	4	0	0Round 3		3	3	6	0	0Round 4		3	2	7	0	0Round 5		2	1	9	0	0Round 6		2	3	7	0	0Round 7		2	7	2	0	1Round 8		0	6	4	1	1Round 9		2	3	1	1	5Round 10		3	1	4	2	2Round 11		1	2	5	4	0Round 12		3	4	3	0	2Round 13		2	1	6	2	1Round 14		0	2	3	3	4Round 15		1	0	2	7	2Round 16		1	1	0	4	6TOTAL		26	54	64	24	24						2004						Round 1		0	10	2	0	0Round 2		2	8	2	0	0Round 3		4	3	5	0	0Round 4		1	4	7	0	0Round 5		0	4	8	0	0Round 6		5	0	5	1	1Round 7		0	5	6	0	1Round 8		2	2	4	1	3Round 9		2	4	2	2	2Round 10		3	1	5	4	0Round 11		0	1	7	1	3Round 12		5	3	1	3	0Round 13		0	3	5	1	3Round 14		1	4	3	1	3Round 15		0	0	3	6	3Round 16		0	2	2	3	5TOTAL		25	54	67	23	24

 

[Evilgrin 72]

As you can see from the above, 10 RBs get grabbed in round 1 in most years - I'm wondering if that is going to change this year...

 

[FUBAR]

I've never been a fan of going RB-RB. I like to get one RB in the 1st or 2nd, then another in the top 5 rounds. I've had luck with this strategy when drafting late in the 1st. It depends on the person, some people are better able to find later WR gems, I've been able to get RBs later.

Really it comes down to drafting value when it's there and getting lucky late.

 

[a_troll00]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

not really - You can get the follow at decent value this season:hasslbeckbulgerBigBen (again)PalmerMcNabbtons of talent there

I agree with DH for strongly disagreeing with you. Ben's draft position will average behind Brees and Romo, but there will be plenty of juxtaposition between those three in individual drafts. If you want Ben you better move early. I consider a 4th round Qb early, and I'm guessing you do too. I've spent years being last or very near last to take a QB. I've done fine (even won) with that approach. But times change. The projections make sense. I cannot remember seeing a batch of QBs like this -- Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees and Ben -- who's value (vbd approach) matches a strong likelihood (confidence in the projections) of making them worth first and second round picks in 6 pt td pass leagues, and even third rounders the latest in 4 pt leagues. I can't predict my redraft scenario this early, but today it feels like I should take one of those 5 in my first three picks. I've been fiddling with some mocks that make me more comfortable with the teams that have one of those QBs than the teams that don't. It's partially due to my confidence in the QBs separating from the field again, and it's partially due to my confidence in rounding out the rest of the roster adequately with an early QB.

I've normally been an advocate for taking a top ranked QB, but this season I just see too much value at QB later on. A lot of people have given up on Bulger and washed him off their hands. To me, he is huge value this season as I see the Rams having a big comeback year. Also, Cutler could be a big play if he's available late in the 6th round or beyond. If Marshall and Scheffler are healthy, I see Cutler having his big breakout season.

 

[LTsharks]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

not really - You can get the follow at decent value this season:hasslbeck

bulger

BigBen (again)

Palmer

McNabb

tons of talent there

I agree with DH for strongly disagreeing with you. Ben's draft position will average behind Brees and Romo, but there will be plenty of juxtaposition between those three in individual drafts. If you want Ben you better move early. I consider a 4th round Qb early, and I'm guessing you do too. I've spent years being last or very near last to take a QB. I've done fine (even won) with that approach. But times change. The projections make sense. I cannot remember seeing a batch of QBs like this -- Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees and Ben -- who's value (vbd approach) matches a strong likelihood (confidence in the projections) of making them worth first and second round picks in 6 pt td pass leagues, and even third rounders the latest in 4 pt leagues. I can't predict my redraft scenario this early, but today it feels like I should take one of those 5 in my first three picks. I've been fiddling with some mocks that make me more comfortable with the teams that have one of those QBs than the teams that don't. It's partially due to my confidence in the QBs separating from the field again, and it's partially due to my confidence in rounding out the rest of the roster adequately with an early QB.

You mean like last year when there were 5 QBs going in the top 37 (essentially first 3 rounds) according to FBGs last ADP from 2007? Or where FBGs last set of projections had the #1 QB almost 90 points ahead of the #6 QB and the #5 was 21 points ahead of the #6 QB?Of last years top 5 you would have likely been happy with Manning, Brady and Brees but not so much with Bulger and Palmer.

Are we letting Brady's big year change the way we look at all of the QBs this year? Is it really that different then it was last year. I tend to think it isn't as different as you might think. But I am asking the above questions sincerely in addition to using them to make a point.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I strongly disagree with this. IMO, if you could get Romo or Brees in the very late 3rd, early 4th, especially in 6 pt per TD leagues, I think you have to do it. I see a HUGE drop in talent after them.

not really - You can get the follow at decent value this season:hasslbeck

bulger

BigBen (again)

Palmer

McNabb

tons of talent there

I agree with DH for strongly disagreeing with you. Ben's draft position will average behind Brees and Romo, but there will be plenty of juxtaposition between those three in individual drafts. If you want Ben you better move early. I consider a 4th round Qb early, and I'm guessing you do too. I've spent years being last or very near last to take a QB. I've done fine (even won) with that approach. But times change. The projections make sense. I cannot remember seeing a batch of QBs like this -- Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees and Ben -- who's value (vbd approach) matches a strong likelihood (confidence in the projections) of making them worth first and second round picks in 6 pt td pass leagues, and even third rounders the latest in 4 pt leagues. I can't predict my redraft scenario this early, but today it feels like I should take one of those 5 in my first three picks. I've been fiddling with some mocks that make me more comfortable with the teams that have one of those QBs than the teams that don't. It's partially due to my confidence in the QBs separating from the field again, and it's partially due to my confidence in rounding out the rest of the roster adequately with an early QB.

You mean like last year when there were 5 QBs going in the top 37 (essentially first 3 rounds) according to FBGs last ADP from 2007? Or where FBGs last set of projections had the #1 QB almost 90 points ahead of the #6 QB and the #5 was 21 points ahead of the #6 QB?Of last years top 5 you would have likely been happy with Manning, Brady and Brees but not so much with Bulger and Palmer.

Are we letting Brady's big year change the way we look at all of the QBs this year? Is it really that different then it was last year. I tend to think it isn't as different as you might think. But I am asking the above questions sincerely in addition to using them to make a point.

That's a great summation of what this thread is all about..

 

[JaxBill]

EG, according to your first post, it's a 12-team 16 round draft. Shouldn't your even round picks be x.7 not x.9? Or is it a 16-team 12-round draft?

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

in addition to the other points raised in this thread, you have a somewhat TD-heavy scoring system. most leagues award twice as many points for yardage relative to TDs than you do. this skews everything. for example, 5000 yards passing is worth 100 points on the season, which is less than 17 passing TDs in your scoring system. the difference between a 5000 yard passer and a 2500 yard passer is less than a 40 TD vs. 30 TD QB!

this is a byproduct of that fact, making guys you think will break TD records or come close be worth more than other setups.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

EG, according to your first post, it's a 12-team 16 round draft. Shouldn't your even round picks be x.7 not x.9? Or is it a 16-team 12-round draft?

Yes, x.7 - my bad. Pick 19 is my 2nd rounder and I guess somehow I got that confused in my head and started posting all my even round picks as x.9.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

in addition to the other points raised in this thread, you have a somewhat TD-heavy scoring system. most leagues award twice as many points for yardage relative to TDs than you do. this skews everything. for example, 5000 yards passing is worth 100 points on the season, which is less than 17 passing TDs in your scoring system. the difference between a 5000 yard passer and a 2500 yard passer is less than a 40 TD vs. 30 TD QB!this is a byproduct of that fact, making guys you think will break TD records or come close be worth more than other setups.

It's definitely skewed towards TDs, but the one of the 138 cheatsheets it most resembles is low-performance, not TD-heavy. I would think any league that has 15-20 yds/point receiving rather than 10 and/or 6 pt TD passes would experience a similar dilemma, and I'd bet more than 50% of leagues have one or the other or both (probably more like 60-70%)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

After LT, Addai. ADP, and Westbrook in PPR leagues...Brady(6 pts pass TD) and Moss are definitely on the table as far as picks.

I believe you forgot to mention Gore in your list... and actually I'd put SJax in there as well.

No Gore, but SJax I overlooked. Till SF can establish a decent passing attack, defenses will shut down Gore running behind mediocre OL.

 

[wraith5]

After LT, Addai. ADP, and Westbrook in PPR leagues...Brady(6 pts pass TD) and Moss are definitely on the table as far as picks.

I believe you forgot to mention Gore in your list... and actually I'd put SJax in there as well.

No Gore, but SJax I overlooked. Till SF can establish a decent passing attack, defenses will shut down Gore running behind mediocre OL.

Do you honestly believe Martz will fail to establish a decent passing attack? Gore is going to be the focus of that offense in 2008. The only concern I have about him in the first round is injury.

 

[NoFBinLA]

After LT, Addai. ADP, and Westbrook in PPR leagues...Brady(6 pts pass TD) and Moss are definitely on the table as far as picks.

I believe you forgot to mention Gore in your list... and actually I'd put SJax in there as well.

No Gore, but SJax I overlooked. Till SF can establish a decent passing attack, defenses will shut down Gore running behind mediocre OL.

Well, the jury is still out on what the Sf offense will look like - and as 'the jury is still out' means I have doubts, I could definitely agree with you that Brady and to some extent Moss are in the conversation for sure. And yes I think you overlooked SJax - many are I think. But I believe the oline will be better than it was last year and he will be as productive as he was just a short time ago.

 

[gump]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

 

[css2373]

I've never been a fan of going RB-RB. I like to get one RB in the 1st or 2nd, then another in the top 5 rounds. I've had luck with this strategy when drafting late in the 1st. It depends on the person, some people are better able to find later WR gems, I've been able to get RBs later. Really it comes down to drafting value when it's there and getting lucky late.

Fubar hit the nail on the head for me. I am pretty confident in my ability at finding RB's later in the draft and I SUCK at picking WRs. Not only do I need to know the tendencies of the other owners, but I have to be aware of my abilities/liabilities. I feel more confident with RB's, so during the year I will play the RB2 shuffle and hold my WRs pat most of the time.So I draft for value while I am aware of who I think I can get later in the draft and pick accordingly. And wish that my analysis of RBs and QBs would translate elsewhere.

 

[a_troll00]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

I will agree with you on that point. Your first round pick should be a "PLAY MAKER". Not necessarily just a RB who you're praying doesn't bust. If you feel that Brady is your guy to be that safe play maker pick, then go for it. A lot of people have laughed at taking Manning in the 1st round, but he's one of the safest picks one can make.

 

[Andy Herron]

Is it time to re-think the RB-heavy early drafting strategy?

It's "past" that time, catch up.

 

[David Yudkin]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

If you understand the concept of value, then you'll understand that just because a player has a high ranking doe not always translate into being a better value for early picks. For example, Culpepper was the #1 QB in 2003 but had a value score of 69. Travis Henry was the #11 RB that year but had a value of 73. (Both of those for standard scoring leagues.)We have debated FOR YEARS where Peyton Manning should be drafted, with the main argument being that you know what you are getting from him. However, in terms of vaue, he has only ranked as a #1 pick 3 times in 10 years. He, has however, ranked in the Top 30 in terms oif value for 9 straight years. So the question becomes even if he ranks #1 iss he worth it, as there could be years where he could rank #1 at QB and still not earn a first round value score.

 

[massraider]

Brady could drop down to 35 TDs, putting him close to Manning and others, and I still think Moss could be the #1 WR.

I think Moss is the power move.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brady could drop down to 35 TDs, putting him close to Manning and others, and I still think Moss could be the #1 WR.I think Moss is the power move.

See my post above. If Moss loses half his TDs, he could still be the #1 WR but not be worth the pick. (I'm not saying what he will do here, only that it is an option.)This is where the individual league rules, scoring systems, tendancies of other owners, how well you can draft, etc. come into play.I still play in a lot of leagues where RB are going to fly off the board, so you almost have to conform somewhat to that strategy or you will end up without starting RBs. If you are happy having only RBBC guys as your starting RBs you can wait and take higher ranked QB, WR, or TE, but the advantage gained there could be erased having terrible RBs.In my case, I am generally very good at finding decent value at QB and WR in later rounds. I personally have not had much luck hitting on later round TEs, so I am the type that will take one earlier than most. If you know what you are good at and draft accordingly, you generally can have success using some varying strategies.

 

[teamroc]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

You guys are using the stats from last year for your 2008 league?Cool.

 

[Rockchild]

Interesting discussion with lots of good opinions. One advantage of drafting RB's early and often is the trade value later. It's easier to trade a RB for WR or QB help than the other way.