Is it time to re-think the RB-heavy early drafting strategy? (1 Viewer)

[hickbones]

It can be done, but you would have to get lucky in rounds 2-5 to get the RBs you need. The scenario you outline is fine IF you end up with guys like Brown and James. But what if the RBs you end up with are Lendale White and Fred Taylor? Would you still be excited about your chances?

NO!

 

[twistd]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMOI also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

 

[BassNBrew]

Regarding Manning and Brady; I get concerned that Manning sits during the fantasy playoffs and that Brady catches snow at home.

 

[gregjcross]

Would you be comfortable with James and Brown as your starting backfield if you had Romo and Moss (or for that matter either Brady or Peyton with TO, Wayne, Edwards, or Fitzgerald) as your QB and top WR?

Yes. There are maybe 18 guys who I think are "safe" to get the bulk of the work out of the backfield. After that it's full-on RBBC or worse, major confusion. Both of those guys make that short list. Moss and Romo are both major difference makers at their positions (although I'm a little concerned about the Romo hype at this point). If I end up being outside of the top 6 picks in my local league, I will seriously consider waiting on RB until round 3 when the rest of the league starts to focus on WR.

so it comes down to the commitee backs. Who you can get later, are they good enough when paired with a top WR/QBs.... Lets see.....YesMarion Barber Maurice Jones Drew Fred Taylor Willie Parker Lawrence MaroneyMichael Turner Maybe...Brandon JacobsRashard MendenhallSelvin Young Julius JonesLendale WhiteErnest Graham Jonathan StewartMatt ForteKevin SmithCedric Benson Chester TaylorWarrick DunnDeangelo WilliamsRiskyChris JohnsonRay RiceRyan TorrainRicky WilliamsFelix JonesJerrious NorwoodAhman GreenChris BrownSteve Slaton

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Anyone who drafts by predetermined positions is missing the point of the FF hobby. With all the posting and information about "Value Based Drafting" I can't believe people still draft by position.

While I agree to an extent... I also believe that knowing your league thoroughly will often lead to predetermining where some positions get drafted. In fact, I'd call it crucial.

here is the best point. The problem is I see some sharks in this thread teetering from the stud RB wait on QB approach. which is fine, but know your league tendencies. and capitalize on them

I have a spreadsheet of how many players have been drafted at each position through any spot in the draft over the last 6 years. However, there is very little consistency from year to year as people shift with the times. We've had years where 5 QBs were taken in the first two rounds and years where the 3rd QB wasn't drafted until round 4. Here's a sampling :

QB	RB	WR/TE	K	DEF						2006						Round 1		1	10	1	0	0Round 2		1	6	5	0	0Round 3		1	4	7	0	0Round 4		0	6	6	0	0Round 5		4	3	5	0	0Round 6		2	3	7	0	0Round 7		4	6	2	0	0Round 8		1	2	7	1	1Round 9		1	3	4	2	2Round 10		1	1	5	2	3Round 11		8	1	2	1	0Round 12		1	3	4	2	2Round 13		0	2	1	3	6Round 14		1	3	5	3	0Round 15		1	1	1	3	6Round 16		1	0	1	6	4TOTAL		28	54	63	23	24						2005						Round 1		1	10	1	0	0Round 2		0	8	4	0	0Round 3		3	3	6	0	0Round 4		3	2	7	0	0Round 5		2	1	9	0	0Round 6		2	3	7	0	0Round 7		2	7	2	0	1Round 8		0	6	4	1	1Round 9		2	3	1	1	5Round 10		3	1	4	2	2Round 11		1	2	5	4	0Round 12		3	4	3	0	2Round 13		2	1	6	2	1Round 14		0	2	3	3	4Round 15		1	0	2	7	2Round 16		1	1	0	4	6TOTAL		26	54	64	24	24						2004						Round 1		0	10	2	0	0Round 2		2	8	2	0	0Round 3		4	3	5	0	0Round 4		1	4	7	0	0Round 5		0	4	8	0	0Round 6		5	0	5	1	1Round 7		0	5	6	0	1Round 8		2	2	4	1	3Round 9		2	4	2	2	2Round 10		3	1	5	4	0Round 11		0	1	7	1	3Round 12		5	3	1	3	0Round 13		0	3	5	1	3Round 14		1	4	3	1	3Round 15		0	0	3	6	3Round 16		0	2	2	3	5TOTAL		25	54	67	23	24

I apologize for the slow reply.I dont think knowing what their exact position were matters so much....1- As reviewing your draft2- Seeing where you missed 3- Seeing where you should have jumped earlier4- Seeing where you could have waitedIn effect, you should have a game plan for (in this case) 12 team leagues.You then adjust your predraft plan according to the rules and scoring.You then adjust your plan on your own rankings for that year (this is always in flux).Then you adjust your predraft plan according to how your previous drafts went within that league.Its more about what you have done right and wrong within that league - then just about what they did.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Ben's draft position will average behind Brees and Romo, but there will be plenty of juxtaposition between those three in individual drafts. If you want Ben you better move early.

While I tend to agree with you, some of the opinions flying around the shark pool of late seem to have more than a handful folks thinking the Steelers apparently intend to run the ball 600 times this year just because they burnt a #1 on Mendenhall. If that continues to propogate FF-wide(though I see no idea why it should, since I think it's completely bass ackwards, but, I'm just playing the Devil's Advocate) I could see him slipping lower than he should.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Nope. Stud RB Theory is always a good way to draft. The key is to find the right running backs. If you have two then you're that much ahead of the game. You can always find QB's and WR's. That's the way it's been since forever. Why would it change now?

 

[twistd]

Regarding Manning and Brady; I get concerned that Manning sits during the fantasy playoffs and that Brady catches snow at home.

That is a really good point. Although last year Manning was pretty solid during the playoff weeks. Brady had a great week in week 14, but was not so good in weeks 15 and 16. I believe that the Colts were still playing to win the division right up till the end of the year. That wasn't the case in years past. But you have a legitimate point.

 

[wraith5]

Regarding Manning and Brady; I get concerned that Manning sits during the fantasy playoffs and that Brady catches snow at home.

To do well in the fantasy playoffs, you have to get there first... either of those guys can really help you get there.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Regarding Manning and Brady; I get concerned that Manning sits during the fantasy playoffs and that Brady catches snow at home.

To do well in the fantasy playoffs, you have to get there first... either of those guys can really help you get there.

I always plan on being there. Thus when I am, Im prepared and loaded for bear. [Though Im not saying I would or wouldnt take Manning or Brady]

 

[FUBAR]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

 

[wraith5]

Would you be comfortable with James and Brown as your starting backfield if you had Romo and Moss (or for that matter either Brady or Peyton with TO, Wayne, Edwards, or Fitzgerald) as your QB and top WR?

Yes. There are maybe 18 guys who I think are "safe" to get the bulk of the work out of the backfield. After that it's full-on RBBC or worse, major confusion. Both of those guys make that short list. Moss and Romo are both major difference makers at their positions (although I'm a little concerned about the Romo hype at this point). If I end up being outside of the top 6 picks in my local league, I will seriously consider waiting on RB until round 3 when the rest of the league starts to focus on WR.

so it comes down to the commitee backs. Who you can get later, are they good enough when paired with a top WR/QBs....

That's about right, although you can certainly go WR / WR as well as WR / QB (or QB / WR). Especially if there's a running back you like more than most, you can target that guy after the initial RB run, and you may come out on top.

 

[BassNBrew]

Regarding Manning and Brady; I get concerned that Manning sits during the fantasy playoffs and that Brady catches snow at home.

To do well in the fantasy playoffs, you have to get there first... either of those guys can really help you get there.

You get there on the strength of your entire draft. You come up short deciding between a quarter of Manning, three quarters of Sorgi, or Kyle Boller in week 16.

 

[a_troll00]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

:( Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

Let's be real honest here. In many leagues, especially PPR leagues, the most dominant teams were fueled by strong WR and QB play. They may have had strong RB production, but most likely they started one RB they drafted and another they got from the waiver wire. Lets face it, so many "top" level RBs bombed last season. I'm pretty sure that's why this thread was started.Who were the fantasy heroes last season? Sure there were LT2, Grant, Westbrook, Peterson (with C. Taylor) and McGahee. Then there was also Brady, Romo, Witten, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Edwards, Holt, Welker, Whosyourmamma, etc.

I seriously doubt there were many championship teams built on two RBs drafted in rounds one, two, and three.

 

[benbadman]

Nope. Stud RB Theory is always a good way to draft. The key is to find the right running backs. If you have two then you're that much ahead of the game. You can always find QB's and WR's. That's the way it's been since forever. Why would it change now?

I tend to agree that 2RB is a good rule of thumb, or at least RB in round 1 in a 10-12 team league. The idea is that the RB1 you grab in round 1 is capable of being a Top5 RB. Of the FBG redraft top 10 RBs, I would say all have reasonable chances to put up top 5 years, even RB9 Larry Johnson or RB10 Lynch. Now in round2 if you can grab a solid RB2 that is a guy who is capable of having a *top 10 season at the position* your team is really strong. Guys like McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Jones-Drew, Ryan Grant could give your team a 2nd rock-solid RBs. If your team has 2 RBs having top 10 fantasy seasons, you will be consistently in position to win games. Rounding out your lineup wiht a QBBC (play the matchups--read the FBG report weekly!!) or a possible QBBC that overachieves (Rothl / Kurt Warner from 07) isn't as difficult as it would appear.But what if everyone is drafting RBs out of the gate, and you're sitting at pick 2.04 in a 12 team league with 15 RBs off the board--do you take Edgerrin James or that QB/WR? There's a sweet spot, a VBD/tier level where your draft strategy has to shift gears. Let's be realistic, during round 1 and early round 2 this year, owners will draft players like Brady, Moss, Reggie Wayne, Peyton and maybe even TO/Fitzgerald before all of those quality RB2 candidates are gone. The question many of us will face is... Reggie Bush / Jamal Lewis or a stud WR (Fitzg/Housh,etc)?The first and second rounds of the draft won't outright win you a fantasy title, but if you blow 1 or both of those 2 picks (Lamont Jordan '06, Rudi Johnson '07, Shaun Alexander) then your fantasy team will be in catchup mode, and hopefully the depth you drafted pays off.I haven't gotten too down and dirty yet into crunching out the 2008 season, but from the draft scenarios I've run so far, I'd rather have 2 solid RBs out of the gate, a solid WR, then a RB3 like Maroney/Jacobs/Turner as a foundation of a team. If you want to build the team with a stud QB but your RB2 is a guy like DeAngelo Wililams or Ahman Green, hopefully your team can dodge bullets in your fantasy schedule-- play the team with Westbrook & Jones-Drew in week 7.

 

[wraith5]

Regarding Manning and Brady; I get concerned that Manning sits during the fantasy playoffs and that Brady catches snow at home.

To do well in the fantasy playoffs, you have to get there first... either of those guys can really help you get there.

You get there on the strength of your entire draft. You come up short deciding between a quarter of Manning, three quarters of Sorgi, or Kyle Boller in week 16.

While that's absolutely true, you won't find me avoiding stud players on likely playoff bound teams before week one as a strategy.

 

[the spanker]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

Let's be real honest here. In many leagues, especially PPR leagues, the most dominant teams were fueled by strong WR and QB play. They may have had strong RB production, but most likely they started one RB they drafted and another they got from the waiver wire. Lets face it, so many "top" level RBs bombed last season. I'm pretty sure that's why this thread was started.Who were the fantasy heroes last season? Sure there were LT2, Grant, Westbrook, Peterson (with C. Taylor) and McGahee. Then there was also Brady, Romo, Witten, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Edwards, Holt, Welker, Whosyourmamma, etc.

I seriously doubt there were many championship teams built on two RBs drafted in rounds one, two, and three.

The only thing that scares me about this strategy is if my first round RB pick is injured like SJAX was last year for me then who do I turn to for RB production? I may not be able to pick up the next Grant or Graham to help me because that RB may not have emerged yet. In the meantime I'm desperately fighting for a playoff spot because my only real RB has gone down to injury.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Nope. Stud RB Theory is always a good way to draft. The key is to find the right running backs. If you have two then you're that much ahead of the game. You can always find QB's and WR's. That's the way it's been since forever. Why would it change now?

I tend to agree that 2RB is a good rule of thumb, or at least RB in round 1 in a 10-12 team league. The idea is that the RB1 you grab in round 1 is capable of being a Top5 RB. Of the FBG redraft top 10 RBs, I would say all have reasonable chances to put up top 5 years, even RB9 Larry Johnson or RB10 Lynch. Now in round2 if you can grab a solid RB2 that is a guy who is capable of having a *top 10 season at the position* your team is really strong. Guys like McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Jones-Drew, Ryan Grant could give your team a 2nd rock-solid RBs. If your team has 2 RBs having top 10 fantasy seasons, you will be consistently in position to win games. Rounding out your lineup wiht a QBBC (play the matchups--read the FBG report weekly!!) or a possible QBBC that overachieves (Rothl / Kurt Warner from 07) isn't as difficult as it would appear.But what if everyone is drafting RBs out of the gate, and you're sitting at pick 2.04 in a 12 team league with 15 RBs off the board--do you take Edgerrin James or that QB/WR? There's a sweet spot, a VBD/tier level where your draft strategy has to shift gears. Let's be realistic, during round 1 and early round 2 this year, owners will draft players like Brady, Moss, Reggie Wayne, Peyton and maybe even TO/Fitzgerald before all of those quality RB2 candidates are gone. The question many of us will face is... Reggie Bush / Jamal Lewis or a stud WR (Fitzg/Housh,etc)?

The first and second rounds of the draft won't outright win you a fantasy title, but if you blow 1 or both of those 2 picks (Lamont Jordan '06, Rudi Johnson '07, Shaun Alexander) then your fantasy team will be in catchup mode, and hopefully the depth you drafted pays off.

I haven't gotten too down and dirty yet into crunching out the 2008 season, but from the draft scenarios I've run so far, I'd rather have 2 solid RBs out of the gate, a solid WR, then a RB3 like Maroney/Jacobs/Turner as a foundation of a team. If you want to build the team with a stud QB but your RB2 is a guy like DeAngelo Wililams or Ahman Green, hopefully your team can dodge bullets in your fantasy schedule-- play the team with Westbrook & Jones-Drew in week 7.

That's a good point you make. I'm all but convinced that you must take a rb in the first round. If the choice in the second round however is between a good running back or a great wide receiver that's definitely something to think about. Especially considering that every season RB's from later rounds seem to emerge to put up top level production such as Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, and Adrian Peterson last season. In that situation I'd go RB/WR and hope to pick up another quality RB in the third round. I can't see myself drafting a QB that early though.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are all the players that had value scored of 150 or more since 1990. This should better indicate to people how often (or infrequent) that it actually happens, what positions it happens at, and how those players did value wise the following season. I can't format to save my life, but here are the results . . .

Tom Brady, 2007, 225

Daunte Culpepper, 2004, 192, 0

Peyton Manning, 2004, 187, 45

Daunte Culpepper, 2000, 168, 0

Jeff Garcia, 2000, 163, 107

Kurt Warner, 1999, 177, 0

Steve Beuerlein, 1999, 162, 8

Steve Young, 1998, 200, 0

Brett Favre, 1996, 183, 118

Vinny Testaverde, 1996, 160, 0

Brett Favre, 1995, 178, 183

Steve Young, 1994, 197, 34

Steve Young, 1992, 150, 148

Randall Cunningham, 1990, 198, 0

Warren Moon, 1990, 183, 134

LaDainian Tomlinson, 2007, 173

LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006, 268, 173

Larry Johnson, 2006, 173, 0

Steven Jackson, 2006, 168, 33

Shaun Alexander, 2005, 221, 0

Larry Johnson, 2005, 192, 173

LaDainian Tomlinson, 2005, 177, 268

Tiki Barber , 2005, 162, 82

Priest Holmes, 2003, 231, 41

LaDainian Tomlinson, 2003, 203, 130

Ahman Green, 2003, 203, 40

Jamal Lewis, 2003, 169, 0

Priest Holmes, 2002, 220, 231

Ricky Williams, 2002, 171, 90

LaDainian Tomlinson, 2002, 155, 203

Marshall Faulk, 2001, 206, 57

Marshall Faulk, 2000, 216, 206

Edgerrin James, 2000, 179, 0

Edgerrin James, 1999, 186, 179

Marshall Faulk, 1999, 185, 216

Terrell Davis, 1998, 233, 0

Jamal Anderson, 1998, 185, 0

Marshall Faulk, 1998, 155, 185

Barry Sanders, 1997, 188, 75

Terrell Davis, 1997, 162, 233

Terry Allen , 1996, 155, 0

Emmitt Smith, 1995, 225, 110

Emmitt Smith, 1994, 187, 225

Emmitt Smith, 1992, 209, 138

Thurman Thomas, 1992, 174, 94

Barry Foster, 1992, 160, 35

Barry Sanders, 1991, 169, 108

Thurman Thomas, 1991, 157, 174

Barry Sanders, 1990, 150, 169

Randy Moss, 2007, 170

Randy Moss, 2003, 163, 27

Jerry Rice, 1995, 165, 71

 

[Andy Herron]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

Let's be real honest here. In many leagues, especially PPR leagues, the most dominant teams were fueled by strong WR and QB play. They may have had strong RB production, but most likely they started one RB they drafted and another they got from the waiver wire. Lets face it, so many "top" level RBs bombed last season. I'm pretty sure that's why this thread was started.Who were the fantasy heroes last season? Sure there were LT2, Grant, Westbrook, Peterson (with C. Taylor) and McGahee. Then there was also Brady, Romo, Witten, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Edwards, Holt, Welker, Whosyourmamma, etc.

I seriously doubt there were many championship teams built on two RBs drafted in rounds one, two, and three.

The only thing that scares me about this strategy is if my first round RB pick is injured like SJAX was last year for me then who do I turn to for RB production? I may not be able to pick up the next Grant or Graham to help me because that RB may not have emerged yet. In the meantime I'm desperately fighting for a playoff spot because my only real RB has gone down to injury.

spanker, I wondered if I'd find you in this thread.I actually drafted Sjax first last year (auction draft) and later Maroney. I still survived and came out on top due to the strength of my QB (Romo), WRs (T.J. Housh, Welker, Galloway, Curtis, McDonald), TE (Witten), Steeler D/ST, and Pats K. I kept Sjax on the bench til he got healthy, cut Maroney and picked up DeShaun Foster to ride thru most of the early to mid part of the season. Although I started out 0-2 due to starting both Sjax and Maroney (injuries, big mistake), I adjusted to my 1 RB (Foster) went WR heavy the rest of the way and went 11-0. Nobody could touch me and hardly ever came close. Only one team came within 150 total points of me at the end of the season. A PPR league.

The key here was my insight with Welker. He was my key target for last year's entire draft. Being an auction draft, there was no way I wasn't going to get him. As mentioned, if you can target an undervalued player for late in the draft, the dividends are huge and it frees you up in the early rounds to address other players/ areas. I also got Witten cheap because everybody was too focused on his 1 TD in 2006. Paid $6 for him and got ridiculed for it. They weren't laughing once the season got underway. Gotta use foresight, not hindsight.

Edit to add:

Jamal Lewis had gotten cut due to injury mid-season. I later picked him up while still injured to put on my bench along with Sjax til they both were healthy. Both the Browns and Rams had easy FF playoff schedules. They were both ready when I needed them. Just goes to show, there is always a RB to be had from the WW for one reason or another. But again, I was only able to toy with my RBs because of the strength of my WR/TE corp.

 

[twistd]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

Let's be real honest here. In many leagues, especially PPR leagues, the most dominant teams were fueled by strong WR and QB play. They may have had strong RB production, but most likely they started one RB they drafted and another they got from the waiver wire. Lets face it, so many "top" level RBs bombed last season. I'm pretty sure that's why this thread was started.Who were the fantasy heroes last season? Sure there were LT2, Grant, Westbrook, Peterson (with C. Taylor) and McGahee. Then there was also Brady, Romo, Witten, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Edwards, Holt, Welker, Whosyourmamma, etc.

I seriously doubt there were many championship teams built on two RBs drafted in rounds one, two, and three.

The only thing that scares me about this strategy is if my first round RB pick is injured like SJAX was last year for me then who do I turn to for RB production? I may not be able to pick up the next Grant or Graham to help me because that RB may not have emerged yet. In the meantime I'm desperately fighting for a playoff spot because my only real RB has gone down to injury.

spanker, I wondered if I'd find you in this thread.I actually drafted Sjax first last year (auction draft) and later Maroney. I still survived and came out on top due to the strength of my QB (Romo), WRs (T.J. Housh, Welker, Galloway, Curtis, McDonald), TE (Witten), Steeler D/ST, and Pats K. I kept Sjax on the bench til he got healthy, cut Maroney and picked up DeShaun Foster to ride thru most of the early to mid part of the season. Although I started out 0-2 due to starting both Sjax and Maroney (injuries, big mistake), I adjusted to my 1 RB (Foster) went WR heavy the rest of the way and went 11-0. Nobody could touch me and hardly ever came close. Only one team came within 150 total points of me at the end of the season. A PPR league.

The key here was my insight with Welker. He was my key target for last year's entire draft. Being an auction draft, there was no way I wasn't going to get him. As mentioned, if you can target an undervalued player for late in the draft, the dividends are huge and it frees you up in the early rounds to address other players/ areas. I also got Witten cheap because everybody was too focused on his 1 TD in 2006. Paid $6 for him and got ridiculed for it. They weren't laughing once the season got underway. Gotta use foresight, not hindsight.

Edit to add:

Jamal Lewis had gotten cut due to injury mid-season. I later picked him up while still injured to put on my bench along with Sjax til they both were healthy. Both the Browns and Rams had easy FF playoff schedules. They were both ready when I needed them. Just goes to show, there is always a RB to be had from the WW for one reason or another. But again, I was only able to toy with my RBs because of the strength of my WR/TE corp.

I got Witten in my auction league for $1. We had drafted Vernon Davis already because we bought in to his hype. I put up Witten for $1 and no one bid on him. We started him all season long. I drafted him in another league because I thought he was solid, but in the auction league we got lucky.

 

[the spanker]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

Let's be real honest here. In many leagues, especially PPR leagues, the most dominant teams were fueled by strong WR and QB play. They may have had strong RB production, but most likely they started one RB they drafted and another they got from the waiver wire. Lets face it, so many "top" level RBs bombed last season. I'm pretty sure that's why this thread was started.Who were the fantasy heroes last season? Sure there were LT2, Grant, Westbrook, Peterson (with C. Taylor) and McGahee. Then there was also Brady, Romo, Witten, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Edwards, Holt, Welker, Whosyourmamma, etc.

I seriously doubt there were many championship teams built on two RBs drafted in rounds one, two, and three.

The only thing that scares me about this strategy is if my first round RB pick is injured like SJAX was last year for me then who do I turn to for RB production? I may not be able to pick up the next Grant or Graham to help me because that RB may not have emerged yet. In the meantime I'm desperately fighting for a playoff spot because my only real RB has gone down to injury.

spanker, I wondered if I'd find you in this thread.I actually drafted Sjax first last year (auction draft) and later Maroney. I still survived and came out on top due to the strength of my QB (Romo), WRs (T.J. Housh, Welker, Galloway, Curtis, McDonald), TE (Witten), Steeler D/ST, and Pats K. I kept Sjax on the bench til he got healthy, cut Maroney and picked up DeShaun Foster to ride thru most of the early to mid part of the season. Although I started out 0-2 due to starting both Sjax and Maroney (injuries, big mistake), I adjusted to my 1 RB (Foster) went WR heavy the rest of the way and went 11-0. Nobody could touch me and hardly ever came close. Only one team came within 150 total points of me at the end of the season. A PPR league.

The key here was my insight with Welker. He was my key target for last year's entire draft. Being an auction draft, there was no way I wasn't going to get him. As mentioned, if you can target an undervalued player for late in the draft, the dividends are huge and it frees you up in the early rounds to address other players/ areas. I also got Witten cheap because everybody was too focused on his 1 TD in 2006. Paid $6 for him and got ridiculed for it. They weren't laughing once the season got underway. Gotta use foresight, not hindsight.

Edit to add:

Jamal Lewis had gotten cut due to injury mid-season. I later picked him up while still injured to put on my bench along with Sjax til they both were healthy. Both the Browns and Rams had easy FF playoff schedules. They were both ready when I needed them. Just goes to show, there is always a RB to be had from the WW for one reason or another. But again, I was only able to toy with my RBs because of the strength of my WR/TE corp.

Andy thanks for your response. Yes I can see that your starting lineup was very strong to begin with. Interesting that another guy in my league last year had a strong starting lineup (Brees, LJ, Moss, T.O., Colston Jennings, Heap, Dallas D, can't remember K right now) and he cruised to the top of the rankings with a 20-4 record. Even after he lost Heap, and LJ he was still did a lot of damage by putting in Ron Dayne (and a TE I can't remember now) and dominated our league. He didn't win the championship but he came awfully close.I'm going to have to rethink how I approach things this year. I've always been programmed to take 2 RBs in the first two rounds (I had SJAX and MJD last year) however guys in my league LOVE to take QBs (6pts TDs, 1pt per 20 yds passing) in the first and second round. Although I really want a top 5 QB I'm going to try and focus on the WRs and RBs (unless value falls) and not take my QB until later in the draft. Of course I don't know how my draft will go (we don't get our draft slots until day of the draft) but last year QBs went very fast in my league. The only top TE I'm interested in is Witten but he will probably go early in the draft. I like Gonzo to because he is pretty consistent (injury free over the years).

 

[Ace Matherton]

Did we not put to rest the RB heavy draft years ago? I dont think i went into a draft with that as a plausible scenario for years.

 

[Andy Herron]

It is worth giving some thought to EG.

not that I have some kind of crystal ball but I've seen this coming in the last couple years.

I still grab a RB in round 1 but then I've been grabbing WR/WR/RB in rounds 2-3-4. unless a RB target I really like is there.

Early QB still makes no sense,but especially in PPR RB/WR/WR/Rb is the way to go IMO

I also have a feeling if Ronnie Brown is healthy come August he wont be available in round3 anymore and you'll have to rethink your strategy anyway

Two things I wanted to throw in. In my auction league we went after Peyton Manning last year. I have never drafted Manning. But I did it for two reasons, this league is 6 pts per TD pass, so you have got to get good production out of the QB position or you are done. The other reason is that Manning never gets hurt. So we were able to go most of the season with Manning as our only QB on the roster. It is a ten team league and many team had three QBs on the roster. We left the auction with at least one extra WR and one extra RB, compared with most of the other teams. That meant we could take a flyer on a guy who might work out. Two of our late WRs were Marshall and Kevin Curtis. They both helped us a lot. We also were able to pick up players during the season that other teams didn't have room for because they were carrying three QBs. I think that is almost never mentioned as far as considering Brady or Manning as your QB. The other thing I wanted to mention is that it is much easier to get a productive player in free agency at RB. Because of injuries unknown players get thrust into the starting job at RB and are very productive. Two examples last year were Ryan Grant and Ernest Graham. You will seldom find an unknown player at the beginning of the year at WR who jumps into the top ten by the end of the year. Colston is one example in his rookie year, but it seems very unusual. So if you draft studs at WR you have more of a chance to find production through free agency at RB then you do at WR if you are weak there. And in a PPR league a lot of WRs are outscoring RBs. In my draft league, a standard PPR league, there were only two RBs amongst the top 20 while there were 10 WRs. So it would seem that drafting WRs high isn't such a bad idea.

Really, during the playoffs, of the 1st round RBs, only LT, Westbrook, Gore, and SJax did all that well.

OTOH, Grant, Graham, Stecker, Peterson (CHI), Watson, Kolby Smith, Fargas and Dayne were startable.

OTOH, Only the first two would have helped you get there.

Of course, the trick here is to actually pick up the right RBs in free agency. If you were lucky or in position to pickup Grant/Graham, and had top WRs and a QB, you may have easily won the league with no RBs picked in the first few rounds. That's just not going to happen often enough to count on during the draft.

Let's be real honest here. In many leagues, especially PPR leagues, the most dominant teams were fueled by strong WR and QB play. They may have had strong RB production, but most likely they started one RB they drafted and another they got from the waiver wire. Lets face it, so many "top" level RBs bombed last season. I'm pretty sure that's why this thread was started.Who were the fantasy heroes last season? Sure there were LT2, Grant, Westbrook, Peterson (with C. Taylor) and McGahee. Then there was also Brady, Romo, Witten, Moss, Wayne, Marshall, Edwards, Holt, Welker, Whosyourmamma, etc.

I seriously doubt there were many championship teams built on two RBs drafted in rounds one, two, and three.

The only thing that scares me about this strategy is if my first round RB pick is injured like SJAX was last year for me then who do I turn to for RB production? I may not be able to pick up the next Grant or Graham to help me because that RB may not have emerged yet. In the meantime I'm desperately fighting for a playoff spot because my only real RB has gone down to injury.

spanker, I wondered if I'd find you in this thread.I actually drafted Sjax first last year (auction draft) and later Maroney. I still survived and came out on top due to the strength of my QB (Romo), WRs (T.J. Housh, Welker, Galloway, Curtis, McDonald), TE (Witten), Steeler D/ST, and Pats K. I kept Sjax on the bench til he got healthy, cut Maroney and picked up DeShaun Foster to ride thru most of the early to mid part of the season. Although I started out 0-2 due to starting both Sjax and Maroney (injuries, big mistake), I adjusted to my 1 RB (Foster) went WR heavy the rest of the way and went 11-0. Nobody could touch me and hardly ever came close. Only one team came within 150 total points of me at the end of the season. A PPR league.

The key here was my insight with Welker. He was my key target for last year's entire draft. Being an auction draft, there was no way I wasn't going to get him. As mentioned, if you can target an undervalued player for late in the draft, the dividends are huge and it frees you up in the early rounds to address other players/ areas. I also got Witten cheap because everybody was too focused on his 1 TD in 2006. Paid $6 for him and got ridiculed for it. They weren't laughing once the season got underway. Gotta use foresight, not hindsight.

Edit to add:

Jamal Lewis had gotten cut due to injury mid-season. I later picked him up while still injured to put on my bench along with Sjax til they both were healthy. Both the Browns and Rams had easy FF playoff schedules. They were both ready when I needed them. Just goes to show, there is always a RB to be had from the WW for one reason or another. But again, I was only able to toy with my RBs because of the strength of my WR/TE corp.

I got Witten in my auction league for $1. We had drafted Vernon Davis already because we bought in to his hype. I put up Witten for $1 and no one bid on him. We started him all season long. I drafted him in another league because I thought he was solid, but in the auction league we got lucky.

That's what I ended up paying for Welker...$1. Near the end of the draft, just filling out my roster. Nobody else made a bid, although most still had money.I was surprised, to say the least.

For auction drafts, I've made a habit of listing players on what I call my "dollar menu". Whether it be players, kickers, defenses, backup QBs.

The more I can effectively use it, the more money I have to bargain with for the higher bidded on players and such. I think of it as increasing my cap dollars. Works brilliantly.

The thing on a backup QB. If you get a solid starter (as I had in Romo last year), there is no point in spending more than a $1, if that, on a backup. Romo's my starter every week. If a bye or injury comes up, chances are there is a more lucritive QB available on the WW that week anyway. (As my QB's bye week approaches, I'll begin tracking who's playing well and available that week and pick him up 2 or 3 weeks in advance so as to be sure somebody else doesn't get there first to do the same thing for "their" QB.

 

[gump]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

If you understand the concept of value, then you'll understand that just because a player has a high ranking doe not always translate into being a better value for early picks. For example, Culpepper was the #1 QB in 2003 but had a value score of 69. Travis Henry was the #11 RB that year but had a value of 73. (Both of those for standard scoring leagues.)We have debated FOR YEARS where Peyton Manning should be drafted, with the main argument being that you know what you are getting from him. However, in terms of vaue, he has only ranked as a #1 pick 3 times in 10 years. He, has however, ranked in the Top 30 in terms oif value for 9 straight years. So the question becomes even if he ranks #1 iss he worth it, as there could be years where he could rank #1 at QB and still not earn a first round value score.

I do understand value. Where I am having a problem is defining the value of any RB outside the top 5....more specifically the difference in value from RBs 6 to 15. I thought this last year also. Why reach for someone like Parker or Bush at #6 when I can get the "same guy" at 15?So for '08, why reach for someone like Barber when I can get a top position player (QB or WR) and get the "same guy" at 15?

 

[Sabertooth]

With the proliferation of RBBCs

Is this truly even the case? I thought I read that this was one of those "myths."

 

[Andy Herron]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...

Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.

How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?

And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?

(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

If you understand the concept of value, then you'll understand that just because a player has a high ranking doe not always translate into being a better value for early picks. For example, Culpepper was the #1 QB in 2003 but had a value score of 69. Travis Henry was the #11 RB that year but had a value of 73. (Both of those for standard scoring leagues.)

We have debated FOR YEARS where Peyton Manning should be drafted, with the main argument being that you know what you are getting from him. However, in terms of vaue, he has only ranked as a #1 pick 3 times in 10 years. He, has however, ranked in the Top 30 in terms oif value for 9 straight years. So the question becomes even if he ranks #1 iss he worth it, as there could be years where he could rank #1 at QB and still not earn a first round value score.

I do understand value. Where I am having a problem is defining the value of any RB outside the top 5....more specifically the difference in value from RBs 6 to 15. I thought this last year also. Why reach for someone like Parker or Bush at #6 when I can get the "same guy" at 15?

So for '08, why reach for someone like Barber when I can get a top position player (QB or WR) and get the "same guy" at 15?

Exactly.spanker, take notice, as we've discussed this.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...

Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.

How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?

And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?

(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

If you understand the concept of value, then you'll understand that just because a player has a high ranking doe not always translate into being a better value for early picks. For example, Culpepper was the #1 QB in 2003 but had a value score of 69. Travis Henry was the #11 RB that year but had a value of 73. (Both of those for standard scoring leagues.)

We have debated FOR YEARS where Peyton Manning should be drafted, with the main argument being that you know what you are getting from him. However, in terms of vaue, he has only ranked as a #1 pick 3 times in 10 years. He, has however, ranked in the Top 30 in terms oif value for 9 straight years. So the question becomes even if he ranks #1 iss he worth it, as there could be years where he could rank #1 at QB and still not earn a first round value score.

I do understand value. Where I am having a problem is defining the value of any RB outside the top 5....more specifically the difference in value from RBs 6 to 15. I thought this last year also. Why reach for someone like Parker or Bush at #6 when I can get the "same guy" at 15?

So for '08, why reach for someone like Barber when I can get a top position player (QB or WR) and get the "same guy" at 15?

Exactly.spanker, take notice, as we've discussed this.

Why? Because you get to pick the RB you conclude is the best choice between RBs from 6 to 15. Not someone else. Thats huge.And increasing your chances to hit it out of the park. Think Steven Jackson two years ago. Bryan Westbrook last year.

RBs make powerhouse teams, so why not let your fantasy acumen work for you, instead of just going the safe route with a top 3 WR.

Im not saying the safe route doesnt work, but you may also get another Top 15 RB (and one you personally have as a #12 or so) with your next pick and dominate. If you really cant find enough of a difference between back #6-7 (super options every year) and those outside the top 10, I would be left questioning your tiers/rankings.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[David Yudkin]

Wow...just ran it for the first time...

Brady is 50 points clear of QB #2, and Brady/Tomlinson are 30 pts clear of everyone else in the Overall.

How could I not take Brady with the 6 pick?

Any of the predraft applications/strategies are totally dependent on the accuracy of the projections. Sure, Brady is a great option if you think he will come close to his 2008 numbers. What if he comes closer to his 2006 numbers? I'm not saying he will do that, but you still need to make the call on how well each player will do and then stand by those projections.For example, Dodds is projecting Brady at 41 TD. Noone has ever had back-to-back 40 TD seasons. In fact, there have only been five 40 TD seasons. He never had more than 28 TDs in any other season. Guess wrong on his TDs and Brady could be a pretty big draft day disappointment. Historically, taking QBs in the Top 5 overall picks has generally not worked out particularly well, as most times there is not a consensus #1 QB that you can guarantee will deliver the value to take that early. It's possible Brady could be the #1 QB again but still not be worth taking that early.

Should have mentioned I am going to use my own projections...but I don't see them that far off for Brady.What about weighing probability of a top position finish? Wouldn't Brady be much more likely to finish as the #1 QB than any of the post-top-5 RBs have in finishing in the top 10 RBs?

And if so, why wouldn't I want a "safer" player for a top position finish with the risky 6th pick?

(I haven't gone QB in 11 years.)

If you understand the concept of value, then you'll understand that just because a player has a high ranking doe not always translate into being a better value for early picks. For example, Culpepper was the #1 QB in 2003 but had a value score of 69. Travis Henry was the #11 RB that year but had a value of 73. (Both of those for standard scoring leagues.)

We have debated FOR YEARS where Peyton Manning should be drafted, with the main argument being that you know what you are getting from him. However, in terms of vaue, he has only ranked as a #1 pick 3 times in 10 years. He, has however, ranked in the Top 30 in terms oif value for 9 straight years. So the question becomes even if he ranks #1 iss he worth it, as there could be years where he could rank #1 at QB and still not earn a first round value score.

I do understand value. Where I am having a problem is defining the value of any RB outside the top 5....more specifically the difference in value from RBs 6 to 15. I thought this last year also. Why reach for someone like Parker or Bush at #6 when I can get the "same guy" at 15?

So for '08, why reach for someone like Barber when I can get a top position player (QB or WR) and get the "same guy" at 15?

Exactly.spanker, take notice, as we've discussed this.

We've all debated this before and on many occasions, but the one thing to consider is that in recent seasons there have not been really sure things at QB or WR.At QB, the one tried and true QB has been Manning. For a few years there was also Culpepper. MAnning has had 3 seasons where he ended up being worth a first round pick value wise. Culpepper had 2 such seasons. So in most years, even if these guys ranked in the Top few spots at QB, they returned value at a 2nd or 3rd round level. Is that terrible? No. But to take a QB in the first round many times will thin out the RB herd for your options later on.

As for WR, which WRs have really been open for debate as first round picks in recent seasons? Moss, Harrison, and Owens come to mind and maybe Steve Smith. SMithe earned a first round value grade once . . . meaning that he was not worthy of a first round pick that year (mostly unproven) and he was taken as one AFTER that season. Harrison had a stretch of 4 years in a row where he was worth a first round pick, but he only was worth that 1 time in the past 5 years and certainly is not an option at this point. Moss has had two of the best seasons of all time in the last 7 seasons, but those other 5 seasons were not that great. If you take a WR in the first, you won't be happy if he ranks near the WR20. Even though Owens has never ranked as the #1 WR, he actually has been more consistent than Moss has (with the exception the year he was a cancer in PHI). He's been a decent value bet and could be an option.

The point being, taking a non-RB can be just as risky as taking a RB. That non-RB might not bust entirely, but there may or may not be value in who you pick and it's just a dicey proposition. The year after Peyton Manning's mega season, he was the #3 QB and 25th best value on the season, but some folks took him in the Top 5 picks overall. Would that be considered a good investment, given that those who took him would have to chase RBs still?

Last year was a down year for RBs, so it's easy to point fingers and say players were bad picks. Jackson, Johnson, Alexander, and Rudi getting banged up. People that took those players would have been very disappointed.

But look at the non-RB options last year. Steve Smith was the #1 WR ADP wise. Ocho Cinco was #2 and Harrison #3. Would you have felt any better if you took Smith or Harrison. According to MFL, Manning was the consensus #8 pick last year. Value wise he ended up ranked 14th. That was probably a decent pick, but again opens the debate for what to do at RB.

To be clear, I am not advocating taking RB-RB or any other strategy, I am only fueling discussion on what to consider and what the impact may be. The one league I tanked in last year I started out drafting Larry Johnson and Steve Smith and thought I was on my way to a great team. When you add in a half dozen guys that went on IR and another handful of players that were complete disappointments, you end up with a 4-10 team even if it looked great on paper to start the season. It's always easy to say who to pick AFTER the season, it's another thing to have to guess before it though.

 

[Restricted]

High end QBs and WRs can get you into your FF playoffs. RBs are what win championships in December when teams buckle down and run the ball.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I find that the trick to staying very competative in fantasy football (outside of a tremendous amount of research) is recognizing the over-reactions when they occur from year to year. As others here have said, I shift my draft strategy based upon what I think others in my league will do. The general concensus has definately shifted from running back heavy teams to teams built around strong QB-WR combos.

Everyone remembers last year and says the RB-RB strategy is dead. I think that last year was somewhat of an aberation. Teams that drafted running backs in the first couple of rounds last year were loaded with the following players: S Jackson, LJ, Gore, Parker, Henry, Alexander, Rudy Johnson, Maroney, Bush, MJD and Benson. All of these guys were disapointments for one reason or other. Some were injured. Some started slowly, some struggled and some flat out stunk. With two of these guys on your roster, you were not going anywhere.

Those that waited for running backs ended up with Barber, Peterson, Lewis, White and Taylor. Peterson and Barber were top perfomers last year and the other three drastically outproduced their draft position. Many of these guys were paired with Tom Brady & a couple of the top recievers. It seems like last year, the consensus projections were much more accurate for the top wide recievers and quarterbacks as compared to the top running backs.

As always, if you are right about your projections, you will dominate. If you are wrong, then not so much. Last year almost seemed somewhat like a random event. In my leagues it boiled down to who "reached" for Brady. Who picked up Randy Moss in the 5th round. Who got Edwards in the 6th. If you paired any of these guys with Peterson or Barber you were assured a top 3 finish. In the end, these guys were right about those players.

If this years consensus top running backs actually perform as well as projected, I suspect that many of this years top teams will be formed by using the RB-RB strategy and pairing them with under-rated receivers.