Terpman22
Footballguy
A lesson for the teams that might have a QB that isn't quite elite, but serviceable/very good.
A crap shoot to find one of the 12 guys that can be called "A True Franchise QB" going into each NFL season.
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Is It Too Soon To Call The 2021 QB Class Overrated? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Anarchy99
- Start date
A crap shoot to find one of the 12 guys that can be called "A True Franchise QB" going into each NFL season.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yes. And the times it does work out early, those guys get extended before their 5 years are finished, thus negating some of that advantage.
Max Power
Footballguy
I think you're being kind with "12".
-OZ-
Footballguy
I count 14. But yeah it’s fewer than half the league.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think we need to figure out what a franchise QB even is. Sure, I get that it's a long-term starter that can (hopefully) stick with a team for years. But IMO, it also has to be a guy that can at least get to the league championship game and get to the playoffs regularly. That probably trims the herd down to a lot fewer than 12 QBs.
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Max Power
Footballguy
I was looking at it through the lens of a true franchise QB is an unmovable staple of your team. After about the top 7-8 I see Teams and QBs who could part ways.
The Tua thread was eye opening to see a winning QB with solid passing stats and see fans who think they'd be better off moving on from him and not giving him a top 5 payday.
Or another way to look at it would be how many teams WOULDN'T trade their starting QB for the #1 overall pick this year?
hmm..
Bills Y ---- WAsh N
Mia Y(?) ---- Phil Y
NYJ N ---- NYG N
NEP N ---- DAL Y(?)
Cle (?) ---- GB Y
Cinn Y --- DET Y(?)
Bal Y ----- Minn N
Pitt (?) ---- Chi N
Hou Y ---- TB N(?)
Jax Y(?) ---- NO N
Tenn (?) ---- ATL N
Ind (?) Car N(?)
LV N ---- SF Y
KC YYYYY ---- LAR Y
Den N ---- Ari N(?)
LAC Y(?) ---- Sea N
My opinion on franchise qb's is there are 8 definite and 5 yes with questions, age or play. So 13 with the possibility of Pitt and Cle being also yeses.
Bills Y ---- WAsh N
Mia Y(?) ---- Phil Y
NYJ N ---- NYG N
NEP N ---- DAL Y(?)
Cle (?) ---- GB Y
Cinn Y --- DET Y(?)
Bal Y ----- Minn N
Pitt (?) ---- Chi N
Hou Y ---- TB N(?)
Jax Y(?) ---- NO N
Tenn (?) ---- ATL N
Ind (?) Car N(?)
LV N ---- SF Y
KC YYYYY ---- LAR Y
Den N ---- Ari N(?)
LAC Y(?) ---- Sea N
My opinion on franchise qb's is there are 8 definite and 5 yes with questions, age or play. So 13 with the possibility of Pitt and Cle being also yeses.
-OZ-
Footballguy
In that case,
Bills Y WAsh N
Mia Y Phil Y
NYJ # NYG N
NEP N DAL #
Cle N GB Y
Cinn Y DET N
Bal Y Minn N
Pitt N Chi N
Hou Y TB N
Jax Y NO N
Tenn * ATL N
Ind * Car *
LV N SF Y
KC Y LAR #
Den N Ari Y
LAC Y Sea N
Looking at this as a redraft.
Y = keep their guy over 1.01 and is a franchise QB.
N = neither
* = the 1 is probably better but probably wouldn’t make the move (and probably trade out) because the guy can become a franchise QB
# = would give up their guy for the 1, due to age only.
Surprisingly, the
were the hardest for me to decide.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I like the direction this discussion is taking. And while "unmovable" might be a bit too much, I would be Ok with defining it as a guy that is "Worth 3 contracts" and/or being on the team for a decade. Not every "franchise" QB is going to be a perennial All Pro/MVP candidate/Take-us-to-the-Super Bowl kinda guy. There was an article I read recently basically stating franchises are too impatient these days, trying to get the best bang for their buck with that cheap 1st contract, but not developing guys properly, etc. Not every guy starts right out the gate. I mean hell, Mahomes is the best QB in the league and its not even debatable, yet he didn't start a single game his rookie year. So team by team, this is what I got:
Bills/Allen - yes
Dolphins/Tua - yes
Jets/Rodgers - yes, although he's obviously at the tale end of his career
Patriots/Zappe - No
Ravens/Lamar - yes
Browns/Watson - tough one. but I'm gonna say Yes, even if its just the Browns that believe this haha
Steelers/Russ - I'm gonna say yes
Bengals/Burrow - yes
Texans/Stroud - yes
Jags/Lawrence - TBD
Colts/Richardson - TBD
Titans/Levis - TBD
Chiefs/Mahomes - yes
Raiders/OConnell - gonna say no
Chargers/Herbert - yes
Cowboys/Dak - yes
Eagles/Hurts - yes
Giants/Jones - no
Washington/Mariota - no
Lions/Goff - no
Packers/Love - Yes on my own opinion/judgement
Vikings/Hall - no
Bears/Caleb (assuming) - TBD
Bucs/Baker - no
Saints/Carr - no
Falcons/Kurt - no
Panthers/Bryce - such a bad rookie season, could turn it around, but that's gonna be a "no" for me dog...
Niners/Purdy - yes
Rams/Stafford - gonna say yes. Detroit just screws up good players
Seahawks/Geno - no
Cardinals/Murray - no
So by my count/personal opinion there are 15 "franchise" QBs, with the majority of them residing in the AFC. NFC is lacking but that's about to change with the Bears and Commanders going 1/2 and certainly taking QBs this draft.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
You mean it "might be about to change".
Terpman22
Footballguy
I mean, I could be wrong, but I'm gonna guess that 1 of these top 2 guys will turn into a franchise QB.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Well that and the QB position is overvalued in the draft every year even if the class is weak.
Look at the 2022 QB draft class, one of the weakest of all time and it was easy to see before the draft. It's not really a development issue in many cases, most of these prospects are slotted in way too highly by experts and evaluators because it's the most valuable of all positions. That's how a QB from Liberty is touted as a potential first rounder. Sam Howell and Pickett have already been traded. Brock Purdy saved this class from being the biggest dumpster fire of all time.
This year Drake Maye is somehow a top 2 prospect because "upside". And Lance still got the highest trade value because "upside". And even multiple seasons and a body of evidence on the field and people are still holding out hope for some of these guys that are simply not franchise QBs.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
One of the worst QB classes of all time especially given Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant. It also speaks to how these scouts and talent evaluators and experts are usually not very good at what they do and nobody should listen to them. Trust what your eyes see.
Terpman22
Footballguy
It's a supply/demand issue and that's really it in my opinion. So we could debate about it, but I kinda put my list out hinting that for the most part, at any given point, there are maybe 10-12 teams that can't upgrade at QB, which leaves 2/3 of the league constantly in some sort of scramble mode b/c they don' the have "The Guy" at QB and everyone knows that you basically do not win in the NFL unless you have one of these guys. Couple that with the fact that there is now a rookie salary cap/slotting system, but even when it wasn't, teams were willing to both draft a guy like Jamarcus Russell 1st overall, but also pay him as if he is already a franchise QB. Remember those days when you just didn't know both if the guy you drafted was good and also if he would even be present for training camp because a holdout was a big possibility? The position drives the sport, it kind of just how it is now.
As far as Drake Maye goes, I don't watch college ball, but I know a little bit and I remember watching a game 2 years ago while waiting somewhere and was like "North Carolina is ranked? When did this happen? Since then I've kind of been following his progress, I think he has the IT factor along with the physical talent you need to play the game today. I'm IN on him for sure as a prospect.
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