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Is It Too Soon To Call The 2021 QB Class Overrated? (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Footballguy
The 2021 QB class was supposed to be the class of a generation, with teams jockeying for position to land one of the coveted crown jewels at QB. There were 5 of them drafted in the Top 15 . . .

Lawrence: 5-20, 75.9 passer rating
Wilson: 7-11, 70.0 passer rating
Lance: 2-2, 84.5 passer rating (but out for the season)
Fields: 5-13, 76.2 passer rating
Jones: 12-10, 88.4 passer rating (but looks terrible this year so far)

Others:
Trask: Has not played
Mond: 0-0, 70.1 passer rating
Mills: 3-14-1, 86.2 passer rating
Book: 0-1, 40.6 passer rating
Ehlinger: 0-1, 100.1 passer rating

Combined, they are 34-72-1 (.332) as starting QBs with a 79.7 passer rating.

Now that we are a year and a half into their careers, who can still be a franchise QB? Who can we write off? Who will need a change of scenery to stand a chance?
 

Desert_Power

Footballguy
Not at all. Seemed pretty clear last year this was the case (and we saw how skittish the NFL was on any prospects this year). Mills might be the best of the bunch.
 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
Wilson was never good, Lance still hasn't played, Fields has yet to play for coaches who want to coach his actual game yet, and Jones had a fine rookie season.
Lawrence is really the only big "huh?" and you can blame him on Meyer.
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Wilson was never good, Lance still hasn't played, Fields has yet to play for coaches who want to coach his actual game yet, and Jones had a fine rookie season.
Lawrence is really the only big "huh?" and you can blame him on Meyer.
Odd that you make excuses for everyone but Wilson. They all have been bad including Lance (who looked the worst among them before getting injured).

Mac Jones was protected last season and played adequately but looks like the worst of the bunch in 2022.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Wilson was never good, Lance still hasn't played, Fields has yet to play for coaches who want to coach his actual game yet, and Jones had a fine rookie season.
Lawrence is really the only big "huh?" and you can blame him on Meyer.
Odd that you make excuses for everyone but Wilson. They all have been bad including Lance (who looked the worst among them before getting injured).

Mac Jones was protected last season and played adequately but looks like the worst of the bunch in 2022.
I am the furthest thing from dialed in when it comes to the Raiders, but if Vegas goes 6-11 with all they invested in trades and signings, would they part ways with McDaniels? I can't imagine there would be another team eager to bring him in as a head coach if he got let go. He's left and returned to NE before . . . and they don't have an OC there now. It would be just like BB to usher in someone back again and have the Raiders pay his salary. That would certainly help Jones get more on track.

I am not a huge fan of Jones from what I have seen. He's indecisive on his reads, double pumps, and then brings the ball down. He also has no pocket presence and sense of timing of the pass rush. He will take sacks when he could have taken a dump off pass for positive yardage. Add in that he misses uncovered receivers regularly, and once he is flushed out of the pocket, he will panic and make terrible decisions. I am not sure he can be straightened out.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
I think part of the issue is what we saw from Herbert a few years ago, in which he hit the ground running from the get go and looked like a savvy veteran. The expectations for rookie QBs has been raised since then, even though it remains the toughest position for a rookie.

All that said, you'd like to see some more progress from the rookie crop in general at this point - and for the most part we have seen little progress, or perhaps even regression. This narrative may have been different had Lance not gotten hurt and became a star, but obviously we'll never know. On that note, coaching can't be overlooked - Lawrence has looked a lot better (which isn't saying much) with Pederson and Fields is starting to show signs that he can handle this stage. The others don't seem to be in a great spot coaching wise to realize their promise.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
As a Bears fan, I'm perfectly happy with Fields. He's been ok/good of late and has arguably the worst supporting cast of any QB in the NFL.

Lawrence has had some moments, though he's certainly underachieved as a #1 overall pick. Still pretty confident about him, though he should be showing more improvement than he has.

Wilson has looked pretty rough. He's been hurt a lot though, and maybe he's just not a system fit. He's reminded me of Sam Darnold a lot, albeit with a better team around him. Hopefully he doesn't go down the same path.

Lance had bad luck, I don't think its fair to say he's a bust. I am curious what the 49ers long term QB plan is though, especially if they win the West. I thought SF should have taken Fields at the time, and nothing has changed that for me.

Jones has been hurt this year but looked good as a rookie. He gives me a bit of a Jared Goff vibe, where he's good when everything is going well around him, but that hasn't been the case much this year. Still think he's a decent prospect though.

Mills has never impressed me much. His rookie year was mostly just putting up decent numbers in the 2nd half against prevent defenses, other than that Chargers upset. I think he's an NFL backup. and not necessarily a high-end one. Think Colt McCoy.

So the question becomes overrated compared to what? Sure, nobody has hit the ground running like Burrow/Herbert did, but I don't think any of these guys (the 1st rounders anyway) are as bad as say, Dwayne Haskins. At this time a year ago, people were writing off Tua, and Eagles fans were calling for Minshew because Hurts couldn't pass. Would it really surprise anyone if Fields followed a similar path as Hurts, or Jones as Tua?
 

zeeshan2

Footballguy
As a Texans fan:ROFLMAO:

I am just thankful Mills was taken with a 3rd and not a high first rounder, even trade ups, for these other guys. I know we blamed Lawrence last year with Meyer but he still makes dumb bone-headed decisions for someone that is supposed to be generational.

Fields....I don't know if it's his team not helping him out or the FO but he's been awful outside of the past couple of weeks. Here's a good article on him: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/10/6/23390391/justin-fields-chicago-bears-quarterback

Mac Jones; do the Pats hate starting him now or just like Zappe better? I don't think Mac is that bad but he's this safe game manager type of guy.

Lance; I still think the 9ers could have used those picks better in that draft like taking Parsons or a CB like Surtain to add to that defense and worry about a QB later. He threw the least amount of passes for a first round pick in decades and now he's on the shelf.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Like real estate, location is key. Who knows how good guys like Fields & Lawrence would be if they were drafted by better teams? Unfortunately it's the worst teams that usually have the top picks.
Sure, that's true a lot of times but:

CIN won 2 games before Burrow and went to the SB in 2 seasons.
LAC won 5 games before Herbert and now look like a playoff team.
ARI won 3 games before Murray and looked great last year (this year not so much).
BUF won 7 games before Allen and look like favorites to go to the SB from the AFC.

These guys didn't go to great teams / situations yet helped turn things around quickly. And there's been times when QBs went to good situations and didn't work out.
 

Brunell4MVP

Footballguy
A change is gonna come. For no other reason than the studs of the last generation recently ended or are at the end of their careers (Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Mannings and throw in Stafford and Big Ben). Dunno the exact number but I think those 7 QBs won 17 of the last 20 Super Bowls

Mahommes and Allen seem to be ahead of the current crop of talent. But others will emerge.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
A change is gonna come. For no other reason than the studs of the last generation recently ended or are at the end of their careers (Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Mannings and throw in Stafford and Big Ben). Dunno the exact number but I think those 7 QBs won 17 of the last 20 Super Bowls

Mahommes and Allen seem to be ahead of the current crop of talent. But others will emerge.
Guys currently 34 or older (to pick a random data point: Brady (45), Rodgers (39), Ryan (37), Cousins (34), Stafford (34), Tannehill (34), and Wilson (34). Only the first three on the list have a limited short-term shelf life. The other ones may not be in as much demand as they once were, but that is likely more performance-based than age-related (unless we try to connect those two somehow).
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Wins and losses are not a QB stat, but there’s no doubt that this draft class for QBs is looking bad. It looked like Lawrence had turned the corner, but he has seemingly regressed. And he was supposedly a can’t miss guy.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Wins and losses are not a QB stat, but there’s no doubt that this draft class for QBs is looking bad. It looked like Lawrence had turned the corner, but he has seemingly regressed. And he was supposedly a can’t miss guy.
Perhaps if Lawrence wasn’t given the generational label, we may not be having this discussion (at least yet).
 

btemp

Footballguy
You can usually tell right away whether a QB is gonna be good or not nowadays. These guys aint good.
Josh Allen looked worse than Justin Fields over their first 18 starts. Worse completion %, worse YPA, worse passer rating, similar TD/INT ratio.
jobarules statement is hyperbolic, but still Allen is an exception. There are very, very few QBs who had his inaccuracy and poor play and turn it around. Accurate ball placement is something that is very, very hard to singificantly improve by the time you hit the NFL. I'm blown away that Allen did it. But that change is just not something you can bet on.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
You can usually tell right away whether a QB is gonna be good or not nowadays. These guys aint good.
Josh Allen looked worse than Justin Fields over their first 18 starts. Worse completion %, worse YPA, worse passer rating, similar TD/INT ratio.
Which goes back to how important coaching/system is. Daboll (and Ken Dorsey) helped remedy so many of Allen’s weaknesses and helped turn him into a superstar. Now we’re seeing him turn Daniel Jones into a credible and winning QB, although hard to imagine him getting anywhere in the stratosphere of Josh’s level.
 

jobarules

Footballguy
You can usually tell right away whether a QB is gonna be good or not nowadays. These guys aint good.
Josh Allen looked worse than Justin Fields over their first 18 starts. Worse completion %, worse YPA, worse passer rating, similar TD/INT ratio.
Well I did say "usually". Allen was the exception but even he went 5-6 on his rookie year. He made the Bills respectable. By his 2nd year he led them to 10-6 season. These guys are all in their 2nd year and all have not improved at all.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
The other thing to consider is that many QBs that don't make it on their original team as a starter don't often make an impact on any subsequent teams (long-established QBs are a different animal).

From the past 10 years or so, have any of these guys done a ton on a second or third team as former 1st or 2nd round picks? Drew Lock, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Brock Osweiler, or Blaine Gabbert?

A couple of guys are doing well so far this year (Geno Smith and Marcus Mariota) and there might be one or two others (Tannehill comes to mind). But once a QB doesn't do well for one team, he usually doesn't do well for others. That seems counter to the argument of players being drafted to bad teams / environments / coaching staffs. A lot of these guys could have signed anywhere and got another chance, but most of them didn't do well then either.
 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
Wilson was never good, Lance still hasn't played, Fields has yet to play for coaches who want to coach his actual game yet, and Jones had a fine rookie season.
Lawrence is really the only big "huh?" and you can blame him on Meyer.
Odd that you make excuses for everyone but Wilson. They all have been bad including Lance (who looked the worst among them before getting injured).

Mac Jones was protected last season and played adequately but looks like the worst of the bunch in 2022.
Because Wilson should never have been drafted in the first round to start with. But look at that Jets team, it's pretty much the best when it comes to surrounding talent this season.
 

Steve Tasker

Footballguy
Sure, that's true a lot of times but:

CIN won 2 games before Burrow and went to the SB in 2 seasons.
LAC won 5 games before Herbert and now look like a playoff team.
ARI won 3 games before Murray and looked great last year (this year not so much).
BUF won 7 games before Allen and look like favorites to go to the SB from the AFC.

These guys didn't go to great teams / situations yet helped turn things around quickly. And there's been times when QBs went to good situations and didn't work out.
For what it's worth, the Bills were 9-7 in 2017 and made the playoffs, before drafting Allen in the 2018 draft. They lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Jaguars. It was McDermott's first year, the season where they bizarrely mismanaged Tyrod Taylor, benching him against the Saints despite having a 5-4 record, in favor of Nathan Peterman. Peterman then had "The Peterman Game" the next week in a blowout loss to the Chargers, prompting the Bills to put Tyrod back in, and ended up making the playoffs.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Wilson was never good, Lance still hasn't played, Fields has yet to play for coaches who want to coach his actual game yet, and Jones had a fine rookie season.
Lawrence is really the only big "huh?" and you can blame him on Meyer.
Odd that you make excuses for everyone but Wilson. They all have been bad including Lance (who looked the worst among them before getting injured).

Mac Jones was protected last season and played adequately but looks like the worst of the bunch in 2022.
Because Wilson should never have been drafted in the first round to start with. But look at that Jets team, it's pretty much the best when it comes to surrounding talent this season.
I would suggest that Lance shouldn't have been drafted in the first round either. He didn't have much experience and faced less than stellar competition on top of it. The Niners will have to figure out pretty quickly if he is their guy after only throwing 420 passes over the past 5 years. He only threw 20 passes a game once in high school, 8 times in college, and 3 times in the pros. That's not a ton of experience with a pretty low bar for attempts per game. I haven't seen him play much, but it almost seems like he is getting on the job training when he plays.
 

btemp

Footballguy
It's actually crazy, look at Allen's stats over his first 3 years: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

That's a wild jump, that's TWO huge leaps in performance in Year 2 and then 3. And it's across the board, you can go down and look at more advanced stats like on target throws, bad throws, expected comp%, etc. and it ALL got better each year.

I personally don't think I've watched a QB make this kind of leap.
 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
Wilson was never good, Lance still hasn't played, Fields has yet to play for coaches who want to coach his actual game yet, and Jones had a fine rookie season.
Lawrence is really the only big "huh?" and you can blame him on Meyer.
Odd that you make excuses for everyone but Wilson. They all have been bad including Lance (who looked the worst among them before getting injured).

Mac Jones was protected last season and played adequately but looks like the worst of the bunch in 2022.
Because Wilson should never have been drafted in the first round to start with. But look at that Jets team, it's pretty much the best when it comes to surrounding talent this season.
I would suggest that Lance shouldn't have been drafted in the first round either. He didn't have much experience and faced less than stellar competition on top of it. The Niners will have to figure out pretty quickly if he is their guy after only throwing 420 passes over the past 5 years. He only threw 20 passes a game once in high school, 8 times in college, and 3 times in the pros. That's not a ton of experience with a pretty low bar for attempts per game. I haven't seen him play much, but it almost seems like he is getting on the job training when he plays.
I can't disagree with you there.
 

crushedspirit

Footballguy
You can usually tell right away whether a QB is gonna be good or not nowadays. These guys aint good.
Josh Allen looked worse than Justin Fields over their first 18 starts. Worse completion %, worse YPA, worse passer rating, similar TD/INT ratio.
Well I did say "usually". Allen was the exception but even he went 5-6 on his rookie year. He made the Bills respectable. By his 2nd year he led them to 10-6 season. These guys are all in their 2nd year and all have not improved at all.
That's where I'm at as well. Allen was improving before exploding in his second full season. He made the biggest leap for sure, but at least he wasn't dreadful in his first full season.

These guys look like they have regressed, and if everything has to be perfect for them to succeed, then it's time to move on.
 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
Josh Allen played at Wyoming. Nothing against Wyoming, but going to the NFL was bound to be a bigger leap in coaching than normal.
 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
I've always felt Mills was near the top of this group, considering his VOHR (value over Houston replacement). I think he's better than career backup.

The Patriots will have to un-protect Jones in November and December. This will be a great challenge considering o line and receiving limitations, but we will know one way or the other by seasons end.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I think Fields is in the process of turning the corner. By year's end he is the guy we point to as the best of the class. Get him a WR1 next year and he can flourish. Lawrence looks bad but he also needs more help. Kirk is a nice WR2 but he can't carry a passing game with old Marvin Jones, journeyman Zay Jones and converted DB Jamal Agnew. If I am the Jags or Bears, I am aggressively pursuing a WR in the first round next year.
 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
Stating the obvious (but not mentioned so far), a lot of young QBs have to go through multiple head coaches and OCs as teams go through rapid regime changes. I have argued that teams are better off giving a staff 5 years than bail on a coaching staff every 1-2 years. It will mess up a QB, and he may not ever recover.
 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
Rodgers didn't start a game until his 4th year in the league and had a comp % below 64% and didn't go above 65% until his 3rd year as a starter.
Matt Ryan started right away but didn't go above 63% completion until his 5th year.
Kirk Cousins didn't become a starter until his 4th year in the league and had a high comp % right away.
Matt Stafford didn't have a steady high comp % until his 7th year in the league.
Drew Brees didn't take a jump (from 57% to 65%) till his 4th year as a starter.

I think we expect too much from 1st and 2nd year starters. In today's NFL, rookie QBs are expected to come into the league and produce immediately. Its ridiculous, imo, we label players "busts" before they have 25 starts under their belt.
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Rodgers didn't start a game until his 4th year in the league and had a comp % below 64% and didn't go above 65% until his 3rd year as a starter.
Matt Ryan started right away but didn't go above 63% completion until his 5th year.
Kirk Cousins didn't become a starter until his 4th year in the league and had a high comp % right away.
Matt Stafford didn't have a steady high comp % until his 7th year in the league.
Drew Brees didn't take a jump (from 57% to 65%) till his 4th year as a starter.

I think we expect too much from 1st and 2nd year starters. In today's NFL, rookie QBs are expected to come into the league and produce immediately. Its ridiculous, imo, we label players "busts" before they have 25 starts under their belt.
Times change. The game has changed. Expectations change. Most of the players referenced above are older. Burrow was at 65% as a rookie. Hebert was at 66% as a rookie. Mahomes was at 66% as a first year starter. Prescott was at 67% as a rookie. Murray was at 64% his first season. Even Mac Jones was at 67% last year.

Sure, it's tough to have a great read on a QB after 25 starts . . . but that's the world we live in. If a guy doesn't flash after a year and a half or two years, teams will consider moving on (fair or unfair). Teams don't give coaching staffs longer than that many times . . . and those two being in alignment aren't a coincidence.
 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
Rodgers didn't start a game until his 4th year in the league and had a comp % below 64% and didn't go above 65% until his 3rd year as a starter.
Matt Ryan started right away but didn't go above 63% completion until his 5th year.
Kirk Cousins didn't become a starter until his 4th year in the league and had a high comp % right away.
Matt Stafford didn't have a steady high comp % until his 7th year in the league.
Drew Brees didn't take a jump (from 57% to 65%) till his 4th year as a starter.

I think we expect too much from 1st and 2nd year starters. In today's NFL, rookie QBs are expected to come into the league and produce immediately. Its ridiculous, imo, we label players "busts" before they have 25 starts under their belt.
Times change. The game has changed. Expectations change. Most of the players referenced above are older. Burrow was at 65% as a rookie. Hebert was at 66% as a rookie. Mahomes was at 66% as a first year starter. Prescott was at 67% as a rookie. Murray was at 64% his first season. Even Mac Jones was at 67% last year.

Sure, it's tough to have a great read on a QB after 25 starts . . . but that's the world we live in. If a guy doesn't flash after a year and a half or two years, teams will consider moving on (fair or unfair). Teams don't give coaching staffs longer than that many times . . . and those two being in alignment aren't a coincidence.
Sure, some rookie QBs have come in and put up numbers right away. Some take longer. Shame to label them "busts" with only a season and a half in the league. Zach Wilson has only played 18 games.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Rodgers didn't start a game until his 4th year in the league and had a comp % below 64% and didn't go above 65% until his 3rd year as a starter.
Matt Ryan started right away but didn't go above 63% completion until his 5th year.
Kirk Cousins didn't become a starter until his 4th year in the league and had a high comp % right away.
Matt Stafford didn't have a steady high comp % until his 7th year in the league.
Drew Brees didn't take a jump (from 57% to 65%) till his 4th year as a starter.

I think we expect too much from 1st and 2nd year starters. In today's NFL, rookie QBs are expected to come into the league and produce immediately. Its ridiculous, imo, we label players "busts" before they have 25 starts under their belt.
Times change. The game has changed. Expectations change. Most of the players referenced above are older. Burrow was at 65% as a rookie. Hebert was at 66% as a rookie. Mahomes was at 66% as a first year starter. Prescott was at 67% as a rookie. Murray was at 64% his first season. Even Mac Jones was at 67% last year.

Sure, it's tough to have a great read on a QB after 25 starts . . . but that's the world we live in. If a guy doesn't flash after a year and a half or two years, teams will consider moving on (fair or unfair). Teams don't give coaching staffs longer than that many times . . . and those two being in alignment aren't a coincidence.
Sure, some rookie QBs have come in and put up numbers right away. Some take longer. Shame to label them "busts" with only a season and a half in the league. Zach Wilson has only played 18 games.
I'm not labeling anyone anything, but the issue for some folks will be that guys like Wilson and Jones look like they are getting worse not better. It would be one thing if they improved from poor to below average to average. But they seem to be regressing more than they are improving.
 
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Uruk-Hai

Footballguy
Stating the obvious (but not mentioned so far), a lot of young QBs have to go through multiple head coaches and OCs as teams go through rapid regime changes. I have argued that teams are better off giving a staff 5 years than bail on a coaching staff every 1-2 years. It will mess up a QB, and he may not ever recover.
I think that's what happened with Jason Campbell. He had a bunch of OCs (& HCs) his first few years, and they were all wildly different. I'm not sure how good he could've become, but he never had a chance.
 

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