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Is Now the Time to Sell Calvin Johnson? (1 Viewer)

Lol let's not act like Calvin hasn't been getting double teamed and beating them his whole career. He is falling off and can no longer beat double teams. He has lost a couple steps. Still a WR2/3 for his TD upside. But it's time to abandon ship in the hopes that this guy is an elite WR.
I think you can go back and look at the stats before Caldwell showed up and now and you might find a very interesting directly inversely proportional relationship there.

I will say, after giving it some thought, that it is likely that he is not able to rebound physically from injuries that nag and slow him down as quickly as he once was, but I would bet with confidence that it is the coaching and system holding him down to this level. We will see because if he springs from Detroit, there are some nice landing spots for him where I am sure we will be noticing Megatron once again.
Teams know that if they remove Calvin from the game with a double team, Caldwell will not take a chance. He will try and eak out a herminator style win. Good teams will then beat the Lions because as Caldwell said earlier this year. "we let the defense tell us what we can do'. He's so awesome.

The blueprint to beat the Lions with Caldwell, is take out Megatron. The whole league knows it.
Yeah, wasn't too hard to figure out. I suspected it before Matt Stafford said that he didn't even look Calvin's way last week because the safety was running towards Calvin at the snap of the ball. Stafford confirmed it. It has zero to do with is perceived (by some) decline. That was comical and ridiculous.

This past game made it even more likely that Calvin gets few balls thrown his way and just about zero chance he sees a ball thrown to him in the endzone. Caldwell won't do it as long as this is working...which it does against horrible defenses.

 
FU Caldwell and FU Saints. You'd think when every underneath pass is going for 20 yards, you might think of focusing the safety elsewhere at some point.

 
Rotoworld:

Calvin Johnson secured 10-of-15 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown in the Lions' Week 17 win over the Bears.


And on a high note ends an eyebrow-raising 2015 season; Johnson devoured Tracy Porter relentlessly in this one. Still, Megatron cleared 100 yards in just 2-of-16 games, while his season-long usage was more along the lines of a possession receiver than a big-play weapon. Megatron flopped repeatedly down the stretch, posting three games of three catches or fewer in the final five weeks and more often than not showing an inability to get open against mediocre NFL cornerbacks. Megatron should have a season or two left as a capable NFL starter, but that may be it. We're anxious to see where his fantasy ADP lands in 2016. $9 million of his forthcoming $15.95 million base salary is guaranteed.


Jan 3 - 5:22 PM
 
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
He finished as the #10 WR. 10 points ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Do you think you could have traded Calvin for Demaryius in a dynasty at the beginning of this year? No. Or any younger WR who finished ahead of him? Maybe Doug Baldwin, who scored 15 more points; other than that, no.

So the post you're quoting is correct; anyone who sold Calvin missed out on a top-10 season, and didn't get one in return. Probably won't get one next year either.

 
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
CSTU, you have been thinking about me, havent you? Put down the newspaper from 50 First Dates because its an oldie. Had you visited the thread lately you would find that I'd since shed that skin. Here are my most recent comments before the retirement rumors started:

I typically disagree with most of what you say but man is this true. I was the one making crazy statements "Calvin is different. He will always be the top guy until age 3?" with ? = however long I need him. But once I moved him, I was able to see the decline clearly. Some of the wishful thinking in here is sad. I know its hard to accept but the fact remains that father time is undefeated. Even for Transformers that turn into vending machines. He is no longer a WR1. He is a high end WR2 on a good day. I never thought I would say that. I owned him during his best years. RIP big fella. Moral of the story? Quit getting caught up in your feelings for these players. Stay ahead of the curve.

Ha! I won! Sucker!

 
Sold him 2 years ago. Ended up with a package that turned out to be Eifert, Jameis Winston, Eric Decker and Cody Latimer. I'm not thrilled about the return, but if he does in fact retire this year, I'd have to call it a slight win.

 
Sold him 2 years ago. Ended up with a package that turned out to be Eifert, Jameis Winston, Eric Decker and Cody Latimer. I'm not thrilled about the return, but if he does in fact retire this year, I'd have to call it a slight win.
Not the greatest haul, but Decker actually outperformed Calvin on PPG basis this year and Eifert was the #5 TE in PPG.

 
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CalBear said:
cstu said:
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
He finished as the #10 WR. 10 points ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Do you think you could have traded Calvin for Demaryius in a dynasty at the beginning of this year? No. Or any younger WR who finished ahead of him? Maybe Doug Baldwin, who scored 15 more points; other than that, no.

So the post you're quoting is correct; anyone who sold Calvin missed out on a top-10 season, and didn't get one in return. Probably won't get one next year either.
Could have got a number of young WR's for Calvin before the season Cooks, Hopkins, A. Robinson, Watkins, Cooper, etc.

 
CalBear said:
cstu said:
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
He finished as the #10 WR. 10 points ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Do you think you could have traded Calvin for Demaryius in a dynasty at the beginning of this year? No. Or any younger WR who finished ahead of him? Maybe Doug Baldwin, who scored 15 more points; other than that, no.

So the post you're quoting is correct; anyone who sold Calvin missed out on a top-10 season, and didn't get one in return. Probably won't get one next year either.
Could have got a number of young WR's for Calvin before the season Cooks, Hopkins, A. Robinson, Watkins, Cooper, etc.
Crazy talk. No dynasty owner would have sold Hopkins, Watkins, or Cooper for Calvin before this season. Maybe Cooks. Probably Robinson, but Robinson was a pretty iffy pick prior to this year.

 
Rotoworld:

A source told ESPN's Ed Werder that Calvin Johnson told his mother "he wasn't sure wanted to play any more," and cleaned out his locker unlike other Lions veterans.

A source told Werder that "Calvin is the kind of guy who says, 'If I don't feel I'm into this 100 percent, then I need to decide if want to be in at all.'" These are indications Megatron is seriously contemplating retirement, though the season just ended. It's entirely possible Johnson gets the "itch" again in a matter of months, if not weeks or days. Our bet is still that Megatron will keep playing, but it'll be a big story for at least the rest of January.

Source: Ed Werder on Twitter

Jan 6 - 10:48 PM
 
Rotoworld:

The Lions can save $11 million in cap space by releasing Calvin Johnson.

They could also seek to recoup $9.7 million in bonus money if Megatron retires. According to the Detroit Free Press, some in the Lions' organization still "doubt he will follow through" on Johnson's consideration of retirement, but that doesn't mean Johnson won't be released outright under Detroit's new GM.

Source: Detroit Free Press

Jan 6 - 9:27 PM
 
CalBear said:
cstu said:
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
He finished as the #10 WR. 10 points ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Do you think you could have traded Calvin for Demaryius in a dynasty at the beginning of this year? No. Or any younger WR who finished ahead of him? Maybe Doug Baldwin, who scored 15 more points; other than that, no.

So the post you're quoting is correct; anyone who sold Calvin missed out on a top-10 season, and didn't get one in return. Probably won't get one next year either.
Could have got a number of young WR's for Calvin before the season Cooks, Hopkins, A. Robinson, Watkins, Cooper, etc.
Crazy talk. No dynasty owner would have sold Hopkins, Watkins, or Cooper for Calvin before this season. Maybe Cooks. Probably Robinson, but Robinson was a pretty iffy pick prior to this year.
Check the DLF rankings from that time. People still believed in Calvin before the season started.

 
CalBear said:
cstu said:
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
He finished as the #10 WR. 10 points ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Do you think you could have traded Calvin for Demaryius in a dynasty at the beginning of this year? No. Or any younger WR who finished ahead of him? Maybe Doug Baldwin, who scored 15 more points; other than that, no.

So the post you're quoting is correct; anyone who sold Calvin missed out on a top-10 season, and didn't get one in return. Probably won't get one next year either.
Could have got a number of young WR's for Calvin before the season Cooks, Hopkins, A. Robinson, Watkins, Cooper, etc.
Crazy talk. No dynasty owner would have sold Hopkins, Watkins, or Cooper for Calvin before this season. Maybe Cooks. Probably Robinson, but Robinson was a pretty iffy pick prior to this year.
Check the DLF rankings from that time. People still believed in Calvin before the season started.
Well, I would say that in a dynasty, if you could have traded Calvin Johnson for Deandre Hopkins, who at age 22 scored one point less than Johnson in 2014, you probably should have done that.

But I don't think you could have. I think a lot more likely trades would have been for guys who have a low probability of ever having a top-10 fantasy season like Johnson just did in 2015. And if Johnson doesn't retire, he probably has two or three more top-10 seasons in him.

 
Rotoworld:

The Lions can save $11 million in cap space by releasing Calvin Johnson.

They could also seek to recoup $9.7 million in bonus money if Megatron retires. According to the Detroit Free Press, some in the Lions' organization still "doubt he will follow through" on Johnson's consideration of retirement, but that doesn't mean Johnson won't be released outright under Detroit's new GM.

Source: Detroit Free Press

Jan 6 - 9:27 PM
It would seem releasing Calvin makes sense for both sides. Detroit gets the cap space. Calvin can retire without having to potentially repay a portion of his bonus or he can pick who he would like to play for if he wants to sign a new contract with another team.
 
If the Lions did release him they would gain just over $11M in cap space, but that would include almost $13M in dead money for 2016. Currently they have ~$20M in cap space for 2016, with 23 free agents on their roster. They absolutely could cut him, but it's hard to build a team with that much dead money (accounts for almost 10% of cap) to start the offseason.

 
The guy is understandably jaded. Between the injuries, the weekly beating he routinely gets in multiple coverage, and the overall mightily depressing results on the field for a decade, it's hardly possible to keep the enthusiasm up. So no wonder he feels like calling it a day.

That said, no way he retires. He is too much of a competitor to just walk away without even having had a shot a playoff run. The more likely outcome for me is he reaches a deal with the Lions to cut him or trade him in a financially engineered way that minimizes the cap damage to all parties involved.

If I were the Patriots, I would be sniffing around.

 
I would buy him cheap right now if I could.

Season just ended, this is the time where guys are hurting and want to retire. 16 million. One more year. I can easily see him say to himself "lets do a fairwell tour one more year for 16 million".

It would not be the slightest bit surprising to see him change his mind when the season is closing in.

However if he plays, I would trade him again at the start of the season cause I can also see him playing half assed or missing games with "injuries"

 
Anyone selling low on Calvin or expecting a decline in performance will be sorry after this year. Book it.
:popcorn:
He finished as the #10 WR. 10 points ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Do you think you could have traded Calvin for Demaryius in a dynasty at the beginning of this year? No. Or any younger WR who finished ahead of him? Maybe Doug Baldwin, who scored 15 more points; other than that, no.

So the post you're quoting is correct; anyone who sold Calvin missed out on a top-10 season, and didn't get one in return. Probably won't get one next year either.
Could have got a number of young WR's for Calvin before the season Cooks, Hopkins, A. Robinson, Watkins, Cooper, etc.
Crazy talk. No dynasty owner would have sold Hopkins, Watkins, or Cooper for Calvin before this season. Maybe Cooks. Probably Robinson, but Robinson was a pretty iffy pick prior to this year.
Check the DLF rankings from that time. People still believed in Calvin before the season started.
Well, I would say that in a dynasty, if you could have traded Calvin Johnson for Deandre Hopkins, who at age 22 scored one point less than Johnson in 2014, you probably should have done that.

But I don't think you could have. I think a lot more likely trades would have been for guys who have a low probability of ever having a top-10 fantasy season like Johnson just did in 2015. And if Johnson doesn't retire, he probably has two or three more top-10 seasons in him.
I own Calvin in one league, nobody would trade you any of those guys for Calvin. For example, I went hard after Cooper, 1.01 owner wanted Calvin plus my future first. If only I had known Calvin was gonna pull a Barry.
 
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