Former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer has a keen eye when it comes to assessing and breaking down game film. The ESPN analyst has always had a pretty good handle on Tom Brady and the Patriots offense and what makes them tick, especially after a few hours in the film room. Having studied the tape of last week's 28-14 Pats loss to the Jets, Dilfer was struck by several things. The most compelling?
The Jets were daring Brady to throw to Randy Moss in the second half.
"Usually, it's not that simple, but in this case, it was," Dilfer said in a phone interview Wednesday. "I really believe the Jets forced the ball to be spit out to the outside to Randy Moss. That's where they wanted the ball to go. They played him hard inside with their corner (Antonio) Cromartie, and they chased. ... They said, 'Go ahead, take your shots.' "
The Jets had lost shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis to a hamstring injury in the second quarter and came out of the halftime locker room having made some adjustments to their coverages. In the first half, according to Dilfer, the Jets were playing a lot of combination coverages. They played more zone or "matchup zone profiles," as he called them.
"When the Patriots get those profile of defenses, they are much more efficient working the middle of the field," Dilfer said. "Most of their offense is tailored and built on working between the numbers and getting to (Wes) Welker and (Aaron) Hernandez, who are huge weapons in those profiles. Those guys are just going to torch people in the middle of the field.
"In the second half, the Jets played far fewer of those coverages. They went to a one-high (safety), man-coverage scheme and they pressed Randy almost every single down. They were more aggresive at the line of scrimmage. They decided they were going to try to make Tom throw to the perimeter. You might say, 'Oh, that's Randy Moss.' The Jets were saying, 'That's where we want the ball to go.' "
As for why the Pats didn't combat that strategy when the Jets took away Welker and Hernandez, Dilfer said he understands why did Brady always seem to be looking to Moss first.
Dilfer said that a quarterback typically abandons his usual practice of going through his read progressions when the No. 1 receiver finds himself with man-to-man coverage.
"If that happens, that becomes your first read," Dilfer said. "Everything else is secondary."
Beyond that, Dilfer said it came down to winning one-on-one battles, and Moss either wasn't put in the best position to win them or simply came up on the losing end.
"If you're a quarterback, you have to be a little more accurate, and your receivers have to make plays for you," Dilfer said. "Tom wasn't his most accurate outside. He was very accurate in the middle of the field, but he wasn't very accurate on the perimeter. And his receivers, Randy especially, couldn't get enough separation to make plays."
Moss, in fact, talked after the game about those battles, and having to play better because more is expected of him. The question now is whether more defenses will attempt to duplicate the strategy and bait Brady to go away from the middle of the field.
"I think the dilemma for other teams is, 'How much confidence do we have letting the Patriots take shots to Randy Moss?' " Dilfer said ."If teams keep challenging Randy Moss with aggressive one-on-one bump-and-run coverage, (the Patriots) are going to keep taking shots. And I'll tell you, Tom's not going to miss often. But on the flipside, I don't know of any team that can play matchup zone with Welker and Hernandez."
Dilfer is especially impressed with Hernandez. Watching him on film against the Jets, Dilfer said he was open most of the time, and posed the biggest matchup advantage for the Pats.
"You can't cover him," Dilfer said. "He's going to be as good an interior receiver as this league has. The Jets had no answer for him."
Watching the "all 22" coaches' film, Dilfer was also able to see that Hernandez was wide open right before Jason Taylor's late strip-sack of Brady, which sealed the win.
"If he looked to Hernandez, the sack never would have happened," Dilfer said. "He looks at Welker first. When they bracket Welker, his eyes should go right over the safety to Hernandez as second read. For some reason, Tom goes Welker-Moss, and gets hit backside. If he goes Welker-Hernandez, he throws it, it's a touchdown. I watched it 10 times. Hernandez just smokes his guy off the line of scrimmage. Moss was blanketed."
A multi-SB, championship team with one of the most talented coaches in the league, one of the most talented QBs in the league, with several offensive weapons and you expect them to *force* the ball to one guy all night?Whatever you're smokin', I want some.The one I'm shocked with is Hernandez's 5/29 line. Considering Miami has been one of the poorest teams in the league defending TE's dating back to last year, I expected most of the damage to come from Hernandez tonight, not Moss.
Paging Dr. Yudkin... 
