Is there such a thing as a 1-year bust? (1 Viewer)

[Rev]

You hear alot of chatter that says that a guy like Shelton who spend alot of time of the IR and on the bench last year, is a bust. But the guy was a bruising stud in college.

Arrington now has Edge's shadow to live under, and Shelton now has DW and Foster, but how can you say that a player is a bust after a single season?

I'm curious how this happens. Are guys like Troy Williamson, Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams busts cuz they struggled with injuries or didn't stand out? How about Cedric Benson?

Players like Ben Troupe are showing that 1 season a career does not make.

 

[reg]

Hang around here and you will hear about tons of em.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Shelton's and Arrington's first year was a bust. There's no way around it. Shelton was IRed despite having an injury that would have only sidelined him for part of the season, and Arrington just looked overmatched in the NFL.

Can they overcome the slow starts to their careers? Yes.

Is it right to say that there's a guarantee that they won't pan out now? No.

Is it a lot more likely that they won't pan out? Yes.

 

[Rev]

Shelton's and Arrington's first year was a bust. There's no way around it. Shelton was IRed despite having an injury that would have only sidelined him for part of the season, and Arrington just looked overmatched in the NFL.

Can they overcome the slow starts to their careers? Yes.

Is it right to say that there's a guarantee that they won't pan out now? No.

Is it a lot more likely that they won't pan out? Yes.

But my point is that there is no such thing as a 1 year bust. That's an oxymoron, IMO. Either the player is a straight up bust and demonstrates it over the course of a brief and disappointing career, or he takes a couple seasons to demonstrate the potential for which he was drafted. The latter simply cannot be called a bust in any way.

 

[thayman]

You hear alot of chatter that says that a guy like Shelton who spend alot of time of the IR and on the bench last year, is a bust. But the guy was a bruising stud in college.

Arrington now has Edge's shadow to live under, and Shelton now has DW and Foster, but how can you say that a player is a bust after a single season?

I'm curious how this happens. Are guys like Troy Williamson, Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams busts cuz they struggled with injuries or didn't stand out? How about Cedric Benson?

Players like Ben Troupe are showing that 1 season a career does not make.

Depends on how you define bust I suppose. Taking into consideration when they were drafted, situation, so on and so forth.....Personally I give a guy a couple of years before I'll call him a bust. But I don't think Arrington, or Shelton are going to contribute much of anything......

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Shelton's and Arrington's first year was a bust. There's no way around it. Shelton was IRed despite having an injury that would have only sidelined him for part of the season, and Arrington just looked overmatched in the NFL.

Can they overcome the slow starts to their careers? Yes.

Is it right to say that there's a guarantee that they won't pan out now? No.

Is it a lot more likely that they won't pan out? Yes.

But my point is that there is no such thing as a 1 year bust. That's an oxymoron, IMO. Either the player is a straight up bust and demonstrates it over the course of a brief and disappointing career, or he takes a couple seasons to demonstrate the potential for which he was drafted. The latter simply cannot be called a bust in any way.

Since the most popular format for FF is redraft leagues, the player only has to be bad for one year before he's labeled a bust.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Shelton's and Arrington's first year was a bust. There's no way around it. Shelton was IRed despite having an injury that would have only sidelined him for part of the season, and Arrington just looked overmatched in the NFL.

Can they overcome the slow starts to their careers? Yes.

Is it right to say that there's a guarantee that they won't pan out now? No.

Is it a lot more likely that they won't pan out? Yes.

But my point is that there is no such thing as a 1 year bust. That's an oxymoron, IMO. Either the player is a straight up bust and demonstrates it over the course of a brief and disappointing career, or he takes a couple seasons to demonstrate the potential for which he was drafted. The latter simply cannot be called a bust in any way.

You can still objectively evaluate a player's first year, and use it as an indicator of his future potential. "Bust" does imply some finality, so many we should just be more specific, and say that, as you said, Shelton and Arrington did not "demonstrate the potential for which he was drafted". Im down with that. My main point is that if the players dont demonstrate that potential (unless they were considered a project and not expected to demonstrate potential early on), then they are more likely to be busts in the more ultimate sense. Bad first year = more likely to bust. Good first year = more likely to boom.Edit to add: Good doesnt just mean good stats. Good is how quickly they pick up the offense, how much they learn to correct flaws/holes in their game, how much they exceed expectations (if a guy was a project, but got in the field on 4 WR sets as a rookie, then thats good).

 

[mightyeskimo]

I throw around the word 'bust' very often so I thought I'd chime in here. I use the term to describe a players performance rather than the player. That said, when I refer to a player as a bust there is the possibility that the player can turn his performance around. A bust to me is any player that doesn't meet the standards set for his performance within a reasonable degree. So I've probably called all these players you mentioned busts at one point or another. However, there are different degrees and circumstances. I don't think of Braylon as as much of a bust as Arrington for instance.

 

[Imedos]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position. Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position. Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Huey Richardson was a one-year bust.

 

[Draftnik]

You hear alot of chatter that says that a guy like Shelton who spend alot of time of the IR and on the bench last year, is a bust. But the guy was a bruising stud in college.

Arrington now has Edge's shadow to live under, and Shelton now has DW and Foster, but how can you say that a player is a bust after a single season?

I'm curious how this happens. Are guys like Troy Williamson, Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams busts cuz they struggled with injuries or didn't stand out? How about Cedric Benson?

Players like Ben Troupe are showing that 1 season a career does not make.

Everybody you mention, Foster included, is a bust to date.

 

[-OZ-]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position. Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

And I'd remove an injury from the bust list. Braylon is not a bust, he was injured, had a few nice plays. Shelton is unknown. As much as I don't like Alex Smith, it's too early to label him anything.

Arrington, if I'm going to call any first year player a bust, gets the label. If he showed anything special, the staff would not have spent the big bucks on Edge.

 

[Banger]

I'd say no you can't be a bust in your 1st year. Underachiever - yes, bust - no.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'd say no you can't be a bust in your 1st year. Underachiever - yes, bust - no.

Huey Richardson is the counter-example. He was a first-round draft pick by the Steelers who was cut after his first year. He wasn't injured or anything. He just sucked, so he was cut. He was out of the league for good the following year. I don't think you had to wait five years or whatever before calling him a bust.

 

[H.K.]

Does Thomas Jones fit into this discussion? He was awful with the Cards in his first three seasons....he sure seemed like a bust at the time...I guess he would fall into the late bloomer/underachiever category now.

 

[jurb26]

I'd say no you can't be a bust in your 1st year. Underachiever - yes, bust - no.

Huey Richardson is the counter-example. He was a first-round draft pick by the Steelers who was cut after his first year. He wasn't injured or anything. He just sucked, so he was cut. He was out of the league for good the following year.

Which makes Richardson a bust... hence he would never go on to become a good football player. I think by labeling "one year bust," you are not lableling them busts at all. Being a bust would indicate to me that the ability was just never there in the 1st place and we along with NFL scouts/GMs just missed it. Being a bust implies to me a career or several seasons of disapointments. Being so bad that you are cut and no team wnats you would also qualitfy. Having one year as a down year but coming along in later years (which can still happen with these guys) would be underachieving IMO. I agree with Banger. I seem to be doing that a lot lately, WTF?

 

[Kit Fisto]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position.  Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

You mean guys like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis, Priest Holmes, Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker, Reuben Droughns, Ahman Green, and Thomas Jones for example?I'd say you've got it backwards. There are some examples of guys who were great from the get-go (Tomlinson, Portis, James), but most need to be shown a little patience.

 

[jurb26]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position. Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

You mean guys like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis, Priest Holmes, Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker, Reuben Droughns, Ahman Green, and Thomas Jones for example?I'd say you've got it backwards. There are some examples of guys who were great from the get-go (Tomlinson, Portis, James), but most need to be shown a little patience.

I'm not sure that a lot of those guys needed to be shown patience as much as they needed to have a very talented and productive incumbant break down or move on before they could show their skills. With RB's, usually the talent is there right away.LJ - Holmes

SA - Watters

Davis - Allen

Holmes - Lewis

Rudi - Dillon

Taylor - Lewis

Parker - Bettis/Staley

Droughns - Portis

 

[wannabee]

I'd say no you can't be a bust in your 1st year. Underachiever - yes, bust - no.

How about Maurice Clarett? Is he an underachiever?

 

[Banger]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position.  Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

You mean guys like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis, Priest Holmes, Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker, Reuben Droughns, Ahman Green, and Thomas Jones for example?I'd say you've got it backwards. There are some examples of guys who were great from the get-go (Tomlinson, Portis, James), but most need to be shown a little patience.

I'm not sure that a lot of those guys needed to be shown patience as much as they needed to have a very talented and productive incumbant break down or move on before they could show their skills. With RB's, usually the talent is there right away.

Exactly. Along with talent you need opportunity. Without the opportunity I don't see how you can label a guy one way or the other. Phillip Rivers, for instance, can't really be judged since he hasn't had the opportunity to prove his ability one way or the other (even though I believe I've read people calling him a bust - not in this thread).

 

[Banger]

I'd say no you can't be a bust in your 1st year.  Underachiever - yes, bust - no.

How about Maurice Clarett? Is he an underachiever?

That goes without saying but I guess that I should clarify to state that if a player is still playing in the NFL the term bust shouldn't apply. As someone wrote earlier in the thread I equate the word bust as a final judgement and if they are still playing it doesn't apply. Take Ron Dayne, by all accounts he'd be a bust till now but what if he goes onto be a top 5 RB for the next 3 years? I know it's crazy but he is playing in Denver. I don't think you could characterize him as a bust, certainly an under achiever for the 1st few years, mis-used, etc. but not a bust.

 

[JohnnyTitan]

LJ - HolmesSA - WattersDavis - AllenHolmes - LewisRudi - DillonTaylor - LewisParker - Bettis/StaleyDroughns - Portis

Boy. That list really makes me think Tatum Bell is primed for greatness!

 

[Rev]

I'd say no you can't be a bust in your 1st year.  Underachiever - yes, bust - no.

How about Maurice Clarett? Is he an underachiever?

I think that when you play 1 year and then find yourself flipping pancakes at the Wafflehouse, it's safe to say you're a bust.... but for those who still have a roster spot and a few seasons left to prove themselves, the term bust isn't appropriate.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

the most disturbing thing i heard about arrington last year was that he ran sort of soft and tentatively, & reportedly seem to avoid contact (i liked his highlights, in which he reminded me in stature & running style of JJ)...

the other big problem is that he may not see the light of day for the next three seasons with edge there... hard to hold a roster spot (though i know many burned a high first rounder on him, which may compel them to keep him) for a guy who may not see any substantive playing time (barring injury to edge) until the year 2009-2010?

who knows what will happen that far ahead... planet earth may have been invaded by aliens by that time?

 

[-OZ-]

the most disturbing thing i heard about arrington last year was that he ran sort of soft and tentatively, & reportedly seem to avoid contact (i liked his highlights, in which he reminded me in stature & running style of JJ)...

So does Tomlinson Nothing wrong with avoiding contact when you have the ball.

(the bolded portion, not the soft/tentatively part)

 

[DropKick]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position.  Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

You mean guys like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis, Priest Holmes, Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker, Reuben Droughns, Ahman Green, and Thomas Jones for example?I'd say you've got it backwards. There are some examples of guys who were great from the get-go (Tomlinson, Portis, James), but most need to be shown a little patience.

The majority of these guys were behind established backs and not really expected to be an immediate impact. With the exception of Jones and maybe Taylor (we'll see), I wouldn't classify them as late bloomers. Arrington, on the other hand, ...

 

[-OZ-]

I think it's much easier to label rookie rbs as busts because they are supposed to adjust a lot more quickly to the NFL than any other position. Doesn't mean they can't bounce back, but the odds are stacked against them.

qbs, wrs, and tes I hold off on making any judgements til I believe they are as good as they are going to get.

There are some examples of late bloomers, but most of the good RBs were good from the get-go.

You mean guys like Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Stephen Davis, Priest Holmes, Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker, Reuben Droughns, Ahman Green, and Thomas Jones for example?I'd say you've got it backwards. There are some examples of guys who were great from the get-go (Tomlinson, Portis, James), but most need to be shown a little patience.

The majority of these guys were behind established backs and not really expected to be an immediate impact. With the exception of Jones and maybe Taylor (we'll see), I wouldn't classify them as late bloomers. Arrington, on the other hand, ...

People like to lump Priest in with the late bloomers, but they forget he gained 1,000 yards in his 2nd season.Droughns was most certainly a late bloomer. He played worse than Aveion Cason and Lamont Warren while in Detroit.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Of course.

If a guy is a bust, he's a bust the minute his name is called out at the draft. However, I'd never label someone a bust after one year just based on statistics. If I watched a player a good bit in college and watched him for most of his games in the pros, then I'd feel comfortable labeling him a bust. But someone like Arrington, who I have seen very little of him playing, I'd like to think more people are smart enough to hold their opinion until they watch the kid play for a lot of games.

 

[Lobo237]

Personally I break "Busts" into 7 categories.

Injury Busts - As the title implies these guys are busts because they get

hurt. I'm willing to cut players more slack as long as it doesn't become

a chronic problem. Examples include Edge when he tore his acl, and of

course "Fragile" Fred Taylor as notable examples. Some injuries are just

flukes and once the player recovers they pick up where they left off.

Other guys become late round flyers because the spend more time in

the infirmary than on the field.

Situational Busts - Guys who are just put in poor situations but have

shown flashes of talent are some of the hardest players to judge. David

Carr is a perfect example. The guy is still as much of an enigma as his

rookie year due to a crappy o-line. Other examples would be Chris Perry

stuck behind Rudi Johnson, prior to this season Phillip Rivers was also

one because it's hard to produce without opurtunities on the field. WR's

who have the talent but don't have a qb who can get them the ball. If

the situation changes enough these guys can be bargains.

Flash in the Pans - Brandon Stokley is a poster child for this category.

For whatever reason a guy gets into a situation where everything goes

perfectly but are unlikely to be repeated, such as a #3 wr gaining over

1000 yards and 10 td's. It's a fluke occurence and the odds of getting

those numbers in that situation again are low.

Carreer Year Busts - Peyton Manning is the first player who comes to mind

in this category. While he put up solid numbers last year, they weren't

good enough to justify the high first round pick many used on him after

his amazing 49 td season. Guys coming off record years are inevitably going

to disappoint owners when the can't repeat the feat. Their numbers aren't

bad, but they don't live up to the lofty expectations that are established.

1st 2nd and 3rd year Underachievers - I don't expect rookies to produce right

away, but if after year 3 they don't start showing me that they're getting "it"

then I'm going to be more inclined to stay away. "It" doesn't mean they have

to put up big stats, but I need to see progress that indicates long term

success is likely. If a rb can't manage to establish himself as the primary

back-up or a wr can't lock down the #3 spot I'm going to have doubts. A qb

has to show me that he can make smart decisions and at least manage the offense.

Of course all this depends on who the incumbents are in the top spots on the

depth chart. I won't start handing out a total bust label until after year 3

unless the player drops out of the league prior to that.

Attitude Busts - Ricky and the Whizzinator getting suspended for drugs, Owens

being suspended for his mouth. Guys who have all the tools, but just don't

have the head for it. Headcases provide headaches and can often cost owners

dearly for their indiscretions.

and finally...

The Total Package - these are guys who have the talent, oppurtunity, and situation

excell, but fail to capitalize on it. For whatever reason they never put it together

on the field of play and join the long legions of "what if's?" As noted it takes a

lot for a guy to land himself in this category.

 

[SoloMatisse]

You can absolutely 'bust' for a season, but to label someone a 'failure' after a single year or even 1 or 2 years is a little harsh. There have been too many players who proven that given time, and often a change of scenary, they can get it done at the pro level. Some of these so called 'bust' players are just guys I wouldnt ever touch until they prove theyre worthy.

 

[WisWolvrns]

Sometimes players are viewed as busts because their value was over hyped in the first place, which put them in a no-win situation. Arrington falls heavily in this category I believe. He was drafted early in alot of dynasty leagues last year based more on his opportunity than RB skills.

If you drink too much player koolaid... you start forgetting the fact that some players were later round NFL picks for a reason. If they were the total package, they would have been drafted higher by teams and thus have more scoring impacts. It's not to say there aren't some diamonds in the rough in the later rounds, but more times than not, later round NFL selections take awhile to get their chance or never pan out at all, fantasy-wise.

 

[perry147]

You hear alot of chatter that says that a guy like Shelton who spend alot of time of the IR and on the bench last year, is a bust. But the guy was a bruising stud in college.

Arrington now has Edge's shadow to live under, and Shelton now has DW and Foster, but how can you say that a player is a bust after a single season?

I'm curious how this happens. Are guys like Troy Williamson, Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams busts cuz they struggled with injuries or didn't stand out? How about Cedric Benson?

Players like Ben Troupe are showing that 1 season a career does not make.

For someone to be labeled a bust they need to be bad for over 1 year IMHO.