Is this Ronnie Browns breakout season (1 Viewer)

[duaneok66]

And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

You're right that SD didn't sprout the offensive talent, A.J. Smith drafted and signed them as free agents. It took years to get where they are now through solid drafts and shrewd signings. Cameron left this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chargers offense improves this year under Turner. Seeing how Miami drafted this year and looking at their roster I don't see the turn around right around the corner.The comparisions to Carter/Priest are stretchs since both moved to prolific offenses/situations and changed teams. Brown is on the same team with the same crappy players and he got a new coach. I don't see a revolutionary offense that Cam will change Miami's fortunes. He's not a Mike Martz type of coach. They don't have a good TE, their QB is average at best, the line is among the worst, they have some decent/good wr's and Brown is a decent/good talent. The only real plus that I see for Brown is that he's among a few backs that the offense will run through and has little to no competition for touch's.

excellent post; but I think Booker gets more touches than most people expect . . .

 

[Cookiemonster]

And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

You're right that SD didn't sprout the offensive talent, A.J. Smith drafted and signed them as free agents. It took years to get where they are now through solid drafts and shrewd signings. Cameron left this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chargers offense improves this year under Turner. Seeing how Miami drafted this year and looking at their roster I don't see the turn around right around the corner.The comparisions to Carter/Priest are stretchs since both moved to prolific offenses/situations and changed teams. Brown is on the same team with the same crappy players and he got a new coach. I don't see a revolutionary offense that Cam will change Miami's fortunes. He's not a Mike Martz type of coach. They don't have a good TE, their QB is average at best, the line is among the worst, they have some decent/good wr's and Brown is a decent/good talent. The only real plus that I see for Brown is that he's among a few backs that the offense will run through and has little to no competition for touch's.

excellent post; but I think Booker gets more touches than most people expect . . .

Sorry to keep taking shots at your posts man. Nothing personal.With the loss of Welker to FA and Ginn probably relegated to the classroom through TC and likely the 1st part of the season, I think Booker is the KR/PR on the team, and will only be in at RB when Brown needs a blow. Now, when Ginn is full-speed and can go D.Hester on special teams, Booker deserves some extra touches on offense. Don't forget about Ricky Williams though. While unlikely, he is revisiting re-instatement in Sept. With the lack of depth on the 'Fins RB chart, this may play a part in either accepting the stoner back, or making a trade (I'm keeping him in hopes of said trade). Very up in the air in Miami for a little while, and Booker is a talented back, but will only be really valuble as a 3rd down back. Only problem is that Brown is probably a better 3rd down back for his hands and blocking ability. Including KR/PR duty, Booker should see 15 or so touches a game but unless you get yardage points from players on special teams, you are looking at maybe 7-8 carries and 2-3 catches and that's not enough to expect fewer carries from Brown. Now, if Ricky stays, Ginn gets healthy and Booker can focus on offense then yes, I'll be worried about Ronnie's touches. That's a few big, unlikely dominoes that start with expecting Williams to contribute to the Miami offense.

 

[gregjcross]

And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

You're right that SD didn't sprout the offensive talent, A.J. Smith drafted and signed them as free agents. It took years to get where they are now through solid drafts and shrewd signings. Cameron left this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chargers offense improves this year under Turner. Seeing how Miami drafted this year and looking at their roster I don't see the turn around right around the corner.The comparisions to Carter/Priest are stretchs since both moved to prolific offenses/situations and changed teams. Brown is on the same team with the same crappy players and he got a new coach. I don't see a revolutionary offense that Cam will change Miami's fortunes. He's not a Mike Martz type of coach. They don't have a good TE, their QB is average at best, the line is among the worst, they have some decent/good wr's and Brown is a decent/good talent. The only real plus that I see for Brown is that he's among a few backs that the offense will run through and has little to no competition for touch's.

excellent post; but I think Booker gets more touches than most people expect . . .

Sorry to keep taking shots at your posts man. Nothing personal.With the loss of Welker to FA and Ginn probably relegated to the classroom through TC and likely the 1st part of the season, I think Booker is the KR/PR on the team, and will only be in at RB when Brown needs a blow. Now, when Ginn is full-speed and can go D.Hester on special teams, Booker deserves some extra touches on offense. Don't forget about Ricky Williams though. While unlikely, he is revisiting re-instatement in Sept. With the lack of depth on the 'Fins RB chart, this may play a part in either accepting the stoner back, or making a trade (I'm keeping him in hopes of said trade). Very up in the air in Miami for a little while, and Booker is a talented back, but will only be really valuble as a 3rd down back. Only problem is that Brown is probably a better 3rd down back for his hands and blocking ability. Including KR/PR duty, Booker should see 15 or so touches a game but unless you get yardage points from players on special teams, you are looking at maybe 7-8 carries and 2-3 catches and that's not enough to expect fewer carries from Brown. Now, if Ricky stays, Ginn gets healthy and Booker can focus on offense then yes, I'll be worried about Ronnie's touches. That's a few big, unlikely dominoes that start with expecting Williams to contribute to the Miami offense.

There is zero chance of Ricky Williams playing in Miami again. Lorenzo Booker will obviously touch the ball in a few capacities

 

[SSOG]

People who think that Brown's situation is not improved--fair enough. But the assertion that touches are not coach influenced or that having a coach like Cam won't help are just plain wrong. How many touches did Priest Holmes get in BA? How many looks did Chris Carter get in PHI? There are many more examples. And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

I love how all Ronnie Brown needed was a good coach to turn his fortunes around. His OL in front of him sucked, but Cam Cameron will totally change that... where HUDSON HUOCK, the guy who developed that offensive line for Cameron in SD, has already tried and failed. And all Ronnie Brown needs is a coach that knows how to make an RB into a stud, despite the fact that he played for Scott Linehan (the guy who turned Steven Jackson into a stud last year) and never amounted to anything.Yessirree, all Brown needs is some decent coaches, instead of that Linehan/Huock dross he was forced to work with.

 

[LBH]

Not as high on him as Moz. I think he will be the 3rd best back in the afc east behind Jones and Maroney. I think in ppr leagues Booker will really eat into his production

I can see around 1100 8

 

[tribecalledjeff]

People who think that Brown's situation is not improved--fair enough. But the assertion that touches are not coach influenced or that having a coach like Cam won't help are just plain wrong. How many touches did Priest Holmes get in BA? How many looks did Chris Carter get in PHI? There are many more examples. And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

I love how all Ronnie Brown needed was a good coach to turn his fortunes around. His OL in front of him sucked, but Cam Cameron will totally change that... where HUDSON HUOCK, the guy who developed that offensive line for Cameron in SD, has already tried and failed. And all Ronnie Brown needs is a coach that knows how to make an RB into a stud, despite the fact that he played for Scott Linehan (the guy who turned Steven Jackson into a stud last year) and never amounted to anything.Yessirree, all Brown needs is some decent coaches, instead of that Linehan/Huock dross he was forced to work with.

 

[kensat30]

Coaching changes?

What about moving to Trent Green from Joey Harrington?

 

[Liquid Tension]

Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.

Dolphin fan that is not biased toward the players. I will call out players and am one of the few people who thinks Zach Thomas is overrated because he gets dragged 2 yards on every tackle. He is still a good player, but not the top player people make him out to be. Anyway, in regards to RB, I know what people mean when they say he is missing something. There are times where he should just lower his shoulder and gain a few more yards, there are times where a better back would have kept his balance and not been tackled, there are times where I thought he could have gone the other way. However, he also was hit in the backfield OFTEN and did great to gain 1-2 yards. He also did show some great quickness and power on the very few times a big hole was present. he also showed good hands as a receiver. He moves piles very well.There is a very good reason why he wasn't top 20 in the first 2 years. RW year 1 and poor OL early on (and not running) and missing 3 games last year. The top whatever is somewhat arbitrary, but there is NO questions in my mind that if he had the same opportunity as the guys in the top 10 (meaning the same offense and chances around him) he would deliver a top 10 performance. I think he is a top 10 RB talent wise.

 

[Liquid Tension]

And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

You're right that SD didn't sprout the offensive talent, A.J. Smith drafted and signed them as free agents. It took years to get where they are now through solid drafts and shrewd signings. Cameron left this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chargers offense improves this year under Turner. Seeing how Miami drafted this year and looking at their roster I don't see the turn around right around the corner.The comparisions to Carter/Priest are stretchs since both moved to prolific offenses/situations and changed teams. Brown is on the same team with the same crappy players and he got a new coach. I don't see a revolutionary offense that Cam will change Miami's fortunes. He's not a Mike Martz type of coach. They don't have a good TE, their QB is average at best, the line is among the worst, they have some decent/good wr's and Brown is a decent/good talent. The only real plus that I see for Brown is that he's among a few backs that the offense will run through and has little to no competition for touch's.

excellent post; but I think Booker gets more touches than most people expect . . .

I think people are missing the point that Miami has upgraded the offense. While McMichael is gone, I can't tell you how many easy drops he had last year. Chambers can't play worse and they have added speed with Booker and Ginn if nothing else to move the chains (Booker) and open up some lanes (Ginn), Booker is a positive for Brown because anything that gets closer to the goal line is a good thing for Brown. Ginn may keep the safeties from cheating as Miami had very little over the top threat last year. Green helps the offense a lot compared to last year. Mularkey threw WAY too much last year as well. To say the same old players is just wrong.

 

[LBH]

why is everyone thinking Green is going to be this huge boost to the Miami offense. Did anyone see him play last year? He didnt look very good to me

 

[Liquid Tension]

People who think that Brown's situation is not improved--fair enough. But the assertion that touches are not coach influenced or that having a coach like Cam won't help are just plain wrong. How many touches did Priest Holmes get in BA? How many looks did Chris Carter get in PHI? There are many more examples. And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

I love how all Ronnie Brown needed was a good coach to turn his fortunes around. His OL in front of him sucked, but Cam Cameron will totally change that... where HUDSON HUOCK, the guy who developed that offensive line for Cameron in SD, has already tried and failed. And all Ronnie Brown needs is a coach that knows how to make an RB into a stud, despite the fact that he played for Scott Linehan (the guy who turned Steven Jackson into a stud last year) and never amounted to anything.Yessirree, all Brown needs is some decent coaches, instead of that Linehan/Huock dross he was forced to work with.

Houck did a good job both years. The talent was awful. By the end of the year in both years the OL was playing much better. the problem was the changes that were constant in terms of players and styles. This year they will have some of that as well, but they do have a good coach (linehan was good as well) but they have added some talent on offense; that was absent last year. Coaching will help some, but the players will also help.Ronnie only had 242 carries and only 5 td's last year; that TD number just can't be less and the carries will be more if he plays 16 games. RB showed some improvement as the last two games he rushed for 225 yards on 39 carries (5.77 ypc). If he plays 16 games, the floor is top 15 and top 10 is likely. (BTW, that is not a bold statement as playing 16 games for anyone who gets the rock as the featured back should hit those numbers)

 

[Liquid Tension]

why is everyone thinking Green is going to be this huge boost to the Miami offense. Did anyone see him play last year? He didnt look very good to me

Did you see the Harrington last year?

 

[The Duff Man]

Brown is a classic case of ?????????

Those who are focussed on his upside are going to say he has a better QB, better coaching and can hopefully stay healthy, which will combine to give his stats a boost.

Those who are focussed on his downside are looking at that brutal line and thinking that the upgrades in other areas aren't going to make much of a difference with no one to block for him.

I am not that high on him at all, he'll finish around where he did last year on a PPG basis. I have him in dynasty and am looking to shop him to someone focussing on his upside.

 

[LBH]

why is everyone thinking Green is going to be this huge boost to the Miami offense. Did anyone see him play last year? He didnt look very good to me

Did you see the Harrington last year?

Yeah I saw all three qbs for the Dolphins last year. Maybe Green can be an improvement, but he didnt look very good to me, and I think theres a good chance that concussion was the beginning of the end for him

 

[Liquid Tension]

why is everyone thinking Green is going to be this huge boost to the Miami offense. Did anyone see him play last year? He didnt look very good to me

Did you see the Harrington last year?

Yeah I saw all three qbs for the Dolphins last year. Maybe Green can be an improvement, but he didnt look very good to me, and I think theres a good chance that concussion was the beginning of the end for him

Fair enough and a reasonable answer. I think that there is a good possibility he doesn't make it through the season, but my feeling is that he will play better than anyone Miami has had in some time until such time he does get hurt.

 

[cstu]

People who think that Brown's situation is not improved--fair enough. But the assertion that touches are not coach influenced or that having a coach like Cam won't help are just plain wrong. How many touches did Priest Holmes get in BA? How many looks did Chris Carter get in PHI? There are many more examples. And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

I love how all Ronnie Brown needed was a good coach to turn his fortunes around. His OL in front of him sucked, but Cam Cameron will totally change that... where HUDSON HUOCK, the guy who developed that offensive line for Cameron in SD, has already tried and failed. And all Ronnie Brown needs is a coach that knows how to make an RB into a stud, despite the fact that he played for Scott Linehan (the guy who turned Steven Jackson into a stud last year) and never amounted to anything.Yessirree, all Brown needs is some decent coaches, instead of that Linehan/Huock dross he was forced to work with.

The Dolphins were 29th in the league in rushing attempts, that needs to change as well as Brown staying healthy for him to have a top 10 season.

 

[Liquid Tension]

People who think that Brown's situation is not improved--fair enough. But the assertion that touches are not coach influenced or that having a coach like Cam won't help are just plain wrong. How many touches did Priest Holmes get in BA? How many looks did Chris Carter get in PHI? There are many more examples. And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

I love how all Ronnie Brown needed was a good coach to turn his fortunes around. His OL in front of him sucked, but Cam Cameron will totally change that... where HUDSON HUOCK, the guy who developed that offensive line for Cameron in SD, has already tried and failed. And all Ronnie Brown needs is a coach that knows how to make an RB into a stud, despite the fact that he played for Scott Linehan (the guy who turned Steven Jackson into a stud last year) and never amounted to anything.Yessirree, all Brown needs is some decent coaches, instead of that Linehan/Huock dross he was forced to work with.

The Dolphins were 29th in the league in rushing attempts, that needs to change as well as Brown staying healthy for him to have a top 10 season.

Stop with all those pesky facts that get in the way of opinions

 

[mdog1967]

 

[The Moz]

Brown is a classic case of ????????? Those who are focussed on his upside are going to say he has a better QB, better coaching and can hopefully stay healthy, which will combine to give his stats a boost.Those who are focussed on his downside are looking at that brutal line and thinking that the upgrades in other areas aren't going to make much of a difference with no one to block for him.I am not that high on him at all, he'll finish around where he did last year on a PPG basis. I have him in dynasty and am looking to shop him to someone focussing on his upside.

I look at it as the line still sucks but so did San Diego's Cam seemed to be able to help LT2 get off. Norve was LT2 offensive coach before that. Ronnie Brown IMO is being really undervalued right now and IMO finishes like a 6-8 pick if not higher

 

[Post Corner]

Probably. And here is my warped reason why: I had Ronnie Brown last year. I suffered through every game with him as "the man" in Miami. Fast, strong, good hands, no Ricky... and nothing. It will kill me once Brown explodes this year! The only way Brown doesn't explode is if I draft him.

 

[Banger]

bump...a lot of Brown supporters were looking for improvement based on the Green/Cam factors. With the news that Green has looked pretty lousy and may be in a battle with Cleo Lemon for the starting QB position does this change the outlook of some of the Ronnie faithful?

Any reason why we won't see Ronnie Brown ver. 2006 in 2007?

 

[Fodasme69]

bump...a lot of Brown supporters were looking for improvement based on the Green/Cam factors. With the news that Green has looked pretty lousy and may be in a battle with Cleo Lemon for the starting QB position does this change the outlook of some of the Ronnie faithful? Any reason why we won't see Ronnie Brown ver. 2006 in 2007?

Wasn't Ronnie Brown top 10 last year before the injury?

 

[dgreen]

Any reason why we won't see Ronnie Brown ver. 2006 in 2007?

Project his 2006 numbers to 16 games and he scores 194 fp (1580 yards, 6 TDs), good for RB10 last year. I'd be fine with those yards. I'd like him to score a couple more TDs, though. IOW, version 2006 wasn't as bad as most people make it out to be.

 

[Bonzai]

Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.

I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.

OK, so I ran the numbers using the Historical Data Dominator. Here's what I found.....Since 1960, there have been only 40 RB's to have at least 200 carries in their first two seasons in the league, that includes R. Brown & C. Williams who are both entering their 3rd year.

-NONE of the RB's that had at least 200 carries in their first two seasons did NOT finished in the top 20 in fantasy scoring in either of those years EXCEPT for Ronnie Brown. The next closest was Cadillac, but he finished #19 his rookie year.

-Only 4 of these backs besides Brown & Williams have finished below 15th in each of their first two years. Here's how they finished in their 3rd year:

Sammie Smith - #68

Ricky Williams - #8

John Stephens - #25

Ronald Moore - #74

-As you can see, Ricky Williams is the only back to have cracked the top 10 after two sub 15 seasons (he was 27 & 18 his first two).

Some other analysis of the 3rd year of these other 38 RB's:

The average ranking in year 3 is 10.92 spots LOWER than their year 2 rankings.

The average year 3 point totals are 21% LOWER than the point totals in year 2.

It doesn't look good for any 3rd year back who has carried a significant load in their first two seasons. The numbers do not appear to be in favor of Ronnie Brown, but then again there is always a chance he is the second to really step it up in year 3.

wow, i was just bringing this up in the caddy thread.good job.

 

[Neo]

Well his teammates think so:

Brown's Breakout Season?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

what's his ADP right now?

 

[The Kansas Comet]

what's his ADP right now?

16th overall per Myfantasyleague.com stats

 

[-Crippler-]

Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.

While you're at it, only include RBs who shared carries with Ricky Williams in their first year and broke a hand in their second year. I hate this kind of analysis and I see it in every single thread. Only focusing on the past while using completely different situations means that you will never draft a breakout star...only ones on the downturn.

 

[SSOG]

Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.

While you're at it, only include RBs who shared carries with Ricky Williams in their first year and broke a hand in their second year. I hate this kind of analysis and I see it in every single thread. Only focusing on the past while using completely different situations means that you will never draft a breakout star...only ones on the downturn.

Situations differ, but not by as much as you'd think. Who cares if he shared with Williams or broke his hand- the only way to get 200 carries and fail to crack the top-20 is to not do anything with the carries you DO get. What I'm saying is that we should perhaps worry less about the carries he lost to Williams or broken hands, and worry more about what he does (or doesn't do) with the carries he DOES get.

 

[Jayrod]

Well his teammates think so:

Brown's Breakout Season?

After offseason concerns about the kind of shape he was in, he has dropped to a rock solid 230 pounds and dropped his body-fat ratio to 11%. Brown played around 237 pounds last season, and his body-fat ratio was significantly higher — perhaps as high as 16%.

That takes some serious, serious effort to go from 16% - 11% body fat.

 

[Lash]

Miami OLine is ranked last or near last in every OLine ranking I have read

so my answer would be no

 

[dgreen]

Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.

While you're at it, only include RBs who shared carries with Ricky Williams in their first year and broke a hand in their second year. I hate this kind of analysis and I see it in every single thread. Only focusing on the past while using completely different situations means that you will never draft a breakout star...only ones on the downturn.

Situations differ, but not by as much as you'd think. Who cares if he shared with Williams or broke his hand- the only way to get 200 carries and fail to crack the top-20 is to not do anything with the carries you DO get. What I'm saying is that we should perhaps worry less about the carries he lost to Williams or broken hands, and worry more about what he does (or doesn't do) with the carries he DOES get.

He averages 4.3 yds/att, so I think he does okay with the carries he does get. His problem, so far, is TDs.