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It is a little early but.... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dansav
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Sir Chadwick
Footballguy
Easily a top 10 pick imo (definitely a top 5 RB). I'd also take him over most of the guys you've listed. Not so sure about over Gore or Foster.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Not a chance. This has the feel of a guy who is surprising everyone, but won't come close to doing it again next year once everyone knows who he is. Not saying he won't still be good, but if someone is gonna take him in the first round of a redraft, it sure ain't gonna be me.
Sir Chadwick
Footballguy
Ummm.. wasn't Hillis looking pretty damn good 2 years ago too when he stepped up in DEN? I don't think it's a big surprise. He's a beast. And if anything still underrated. A team finally gave him the keys and he's taking off.
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Dought Man
Footballguy
One of my rules is to never to draft a Cleveland Brown in the first 3 rounds of a fantasy draft....ever...ever.
Its worked well for me. I will not be the guy hoping he can replicate 2010.
Its worked well for me. I will not be the guy hoping he can replicate 2010.
Nah...don't worry about it. Don't let fact get in the way of emotion.
What exactly has Hardesty proven to make it a fact?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Foster and Hillis will have a hard time reproducing these stats next year
Good thread and it will get some nice heated debate. For full disclosure, I own Hillis in all three of my leagues, 1 of which is a keep 3.
I know people throw the Alstott and Riggins comparisons around, but he really reminds me of Marion Barber, in his prime. Can run tough, catch and has a nose for the end zone. Unfortunately, he also shares Barber's belief that on Monday, the body is back to 100% (automatically). Barber caught criticism 2-3 years back that while he ran hard, he also ran needlessly hard and took a lot of unnecessary hits because of it. I think Hillis runs the same way. An absolute beast and I love that I have him, but going into 2011 is a wildcard. In fact, I doubt that anyone will get "true" value for him...it just takes one person per league to reach.
Bottom line, this is the kind of guy you want on your team in real life, but will end up disappointing in fantasy. Rice, Gore, Foster and mcCoy? Yeah, i would trade straight-up and not look back in my Keep 3 league...and it is not close. Plus, Mangini believes in the running game. Although plan has not come to fruition in CLE due to injuries, he would like a 1-2 punch like he had in NY. He sold Harrison for a ham sammich...what makes anyone think he would not do the same to Hillis?
I know people throw the Alstott and Riggins comparisons around, but he really reminds me of Marion Barber, in his prime. Can run tough, catch and has a nose for the end zone. Unfortunately, he also shares Barber's belief that on Monday, the body is back to 100% (automatically). Barber caught criticism 2-3 years back that while he ran hard, he also ran needlessly hard and took a lot of unnecessary hits because of it. I think Hillis runs the same way. An absolute beast and I love that I have him, but going into 2011 is a wildcard. In fact, I doubt that anyone will get "true" value for him...it just takes one person per league to reach.
Bottom line, this is the kind of guy you want on your team in real life, but will end up disappointing in fantasy. Rice, Gore, Foster and mcCoy? Yeah, i would trade straight-up and not look back in my Keep 3 league...and it is not close. Plus, Mangini believes in the running game. Although plan has not come to fruition in CLE due to injuries, he would like a 1-2 punch like he had in NY. He sold Harrison for a ham sammich...what makes anyone think he would not do the same to Hillis?
Cleveland's offensive line today is not Cleveland's offensive line 5 years ago. It's not.If Hillis is still the starter and Hardesty isn't supposed to eat into his role, I'd have no problem drafting him in the top 12 next year. That line is monstrous. I'd just make a point to handcuff him, just in case.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
This has got to be one of the worst guys to speculate about this early, as there might be a coaching change and we have no idea how Hardesty is going to recover and look in training camp.
Ding ding ding. If you're in a keeper league I wouldn't trade him this year, especially if you're in contention. I have him in a keeper league where I can keep him for a 10th round pick next year and am ready to do so, pending whatever happens in the off season.I should also add I wouldn't take him in the first round next year in redraft. He's getting tons more carries than he ever has, including his style of running, could be disastrous.
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Right. And Chris Johnson had a hard time replicating last year's stats. Doesn't mean he wasn't worth a 1st round pick. An RB can struggle to reach 1700/16 or 2200/20 (Hillis and Foster's current paces) and yet still be worthy of a first round pick.
wouldnt be surprised if the browns seek another rb to share the workload. could even be hardesty. ofc, even in rbbc, hillis could be worth a late first rounder.
its not looking likely that mangini will be replaced unless this team implodes down the stretch. they are playing extremely well right now and if not for delololme and some bad luck they would be competing for the playoffs. they smashed 2 top tier teams in the patriots and saints and played the jets to a near draw.
its not looking likely that mangini will be replaced unless this team implodes down the stretch. they are playing extremely well right now and if not for delololme and some bad luck they would be competing for the playoffs. they smashed 2 top tier teams in the patriots and saints and played the jets to a near draw.
DawgPoundNJ
Footballguy
As someone previously mentioned, he has good hands so he can be counted on as a receiving threat which bodes well for him. Hardesty visited Dr. James Andrews and is ahead in his rehab, but Hardesty already is approaching Kellen Winslow territory on knee injuries. If Hardesty is healthy, I think there's a possibility of RBBC but don't forget, next year will be Hardesty's first year which we'll see the rookie mistakes such as pass protection mishaps, boding well for Hillis. I see Hardesty as a change of pace, give Hillis a breather RB. That can bode well for Hillis as it will keep him fresher come fantasy playoff time.
I think Mangini stays on as the ship is heading in clearly the right direction.
Of course, a coaching change can upset everything.
I think Mangini stays on as the ship is heading in clearly the right direction.
Of course, a coaching change can upset everything.
John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
I hate the race card as much as the next guy, but I have to admit I think a black RB with this kind of history, running style, and production would have no chance of slipping out of the 1st round next year.Lots of veiled racsim in this thread.
Adrian Peterson
Chris Johnson
Arian Foster
Frank Gore
Darren McFadden
MJD
Those 6 players are near locks as 1st round picks in redrafts next year (I'm including MJD because I fully expect his 3 game resurgance to continue for the duration of this season). After that, the following players all would warrent strong consideration:
Rashard Mendenhall
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Ahmad Bradshaw
Jamaal Charles
That's another 5 players. Add in Hillis and that brings the total of 1st round caliber RB's to 12. When you start factoring in a wide receiver or two being drafted in the 1st and a qb or 2, you then realize you need to cut some of these RB's, as all 12 simply won't be 1st round material in a standard 12 team league. While this season has been nice, Peyton Hillis would be the very first player I would cut from the list, as I feel far less confident about his ability to repeat than any of the other 11 names.
Long story longer, no I don't think he is a first round pick. That doesn't mean I don't think he is valuable. I just don't think he is 1st round pick valuable.
Chris Johnson
Arian Foster
Frank Gore
Darren McFadden
MJD
Those 6 players are near locks as 1st round picks in redrafts next year (I'm including MJD because I fully expect his 3 game resurgance to continue for the duration of this season). After that, the following players all would warrent strong consideration:
Rashard Mendenhall
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice
Ahmad Bradshaw
Jamaal Charles
That's another 5 players. Add in Hillis and that brings the total of 1st round caliber RB's to 12. When you start factoring in a wide receiver or two being drafted in the 1st and a qb or 2, you then realize you need to cut some of these RB's, as all 12 simply won't be 1st round material in a standard 12 team league. While this season has been nice, Peyton Hillis would be the very first player I would cut from the list, as I feel far less confident about his ability to repeat than any of the other 11 names.
Long story longer, no I don't think he is a first round pick. That doesn't mean I don't think he is valuable. I just don't think he is 1st round pick valuable.
a black rb that was hardly used in college, drafted in the 7th round, converted to a fb, traded for a 3rd string qb, and whose team actively attempted to find another rb would be getting the same treatment.I hate the race card as much as the next guy, but I have to admit I think a black RB with this kind of history, running style, and production would have no chance of slipping out of the 1st round next year.Lots of veiled racsim in this thread.
TheChairman
Footballguy
Bump Hillis
dansav
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Only white guy I take in the 1st RD is a QB
Barber never went in any of my first rounds and I think he is the closest, recent comparison (IMO). You could make the arguement that Turner is a distant 2nd (faster than Hillis/Barber, with much worse hand than the two), but yes, he did go in the first very recently after his breakout year. Any chance those results are sticking in the minds of owners?I hate the race card as much as the next guy, but I have to admit I think a black RB with this kind of history, running style, and production would have no chance of slipping out of the 1st round next year.Lots of veiled racsim in this thread.
Sammy Traveller
Footballguy
Hardesty will eat into Hillis' role.
He does have an injury history, that's for sure, so he won't completely unseat Hillis.
This will be a RBBC until Hardesty gets hurt again.
He does have an injury history, that's for sure, so he won't completely unseat Hillis.
This will be a RBBC until Hardesty gets hurt again.
In a heartbeat and without thinking twice. I was skeptical about McFadden coming into this season, but have been mostly converted at this point. From a talent standpoint, McFadden is better and it isn't close. From a productivity on the field standpoint, McFadden is better. There are injury concerns with McFadden, but there are those same concerns with Hillis due to his running style. I'm not sure I find any reason to value Hillis over McFadden, to be honest.You would take McFadden over Hillis
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Guys like Hillis tend to have shorter careers and briefer periods of dominance.
And by "guys like Hillis", I mean white guys.
And by "guys like Hillis", I mean white guys.
The lack of respect generally for Hillis is amazing. Assuming all things are equal with the coaching situation/philosophy etc, how on earth do you give this guy a reduced role next year after what he's done? "Thanks Peyton, you had a great year, were the heart and soul of our team, the focal point of our entire offense.....but would you mind just taking 50% of the carries next year? It's our priority to work in our black, injury prone RB with no NFL experience."
Face it, the kid took his opportunity and literally ran with it. Giving him a big workload gives the Browns the best chance to win and at this stage there is zero evidence that Hardesty is or will be an upgrade over him in any way. At some point you have to put him in that top bracket of fantasy guys - I agree there's a big race element here and it's unfortunate.
Face it, the kid took his opportunity and literally ran with it. Giving him a big workload gives the Browns the best chance to win and at this stage there is zero evidence that Hardesty is or will be an upgrade over him in any way. At some point you have to put him in that top bracket of fantasy guys - I agree there's a big race element here and it's unfortunate.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Hillis would probably end up a mid to late first rounder. Call me crazy but I'm taking Rivers or Peyton there instead next year.....maybe even Vick if he remains the starter in Philly.
thatguy
Footballguy
I think it's more than just a little early. It's a lot too early. Last I heard out of Cleveland was that Hillis would still be a big part of a committee in 2011 WITH Hardesty. Now, granted, we have no idea how good Hardesty will be, and how the split will work out, but there is far too little information at this point to answer this question.
Irish Chaos
Footballguy
yeah overrated imo, but its funny this comes from a broncos fan..
it happens all the time.jerome harrisonjamaal charlessteve slatondenver rb du jourjulius jonesjustin fargas
Wait a second, unfortunate or fortunate? If people are underrating him due to his race it means that there is an inefficiency, and when there is an inefficiency it means that people can take advantage. Perhaps the Hillis backerrs can pick him up at a later draft pick, a draft pick where he is being undervalued. This is a fortunate thing instead of an unfortunate thing i think.
dansav
Footballguy
I guess this is what makes the world go round.. Talent wise are you referring to speed and vision? If so maybe. If you are referring to hands and being able to move the chains? its very very close. Just looking a pure stats I would take Hillis over McFadden in a landslide.In a heartbeat and without thinking twice. I was skeptical about McFadden coming into this season, but have been mostly converted at this point. From a talent standpoint, McFadden is better and it isn't close. From a productivity on the field standpoint, McFadden is better. There are injury concerns with McFadden, but there are those same concerns with Hillis due to his running style. I'm not sure I find any reason to value Hillis over McFadden, to be honest.You would take McFadden over Hillis
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
This.His situation smacks of a Natrone Means/Marion Butts/Christian Okoye/Barry Word kind of a deal. May have value beyond this year, but he likely won't come close to what he's doing now in my opinion.Ride that lottery ticket to a championship this year for sure, but don't be expecting that same ticket to still be a winner next year.
Football Jones
Footballguy
It's really pretty simple. When in doubt, look at the player's talent...& Hillis is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL. Road grader with quick feet, athletic, good vision, & probably has the best hands of any RB in the league.
I'm buying...& buying BIG.
I'm buying...& buying BIG.
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two_dollars
Footballguy
He'll slip because he's white, making a good value pick for someone in the 2nd round.
Islander
Footballguy
He may or may not finish top 5 next year. It can depend a lot on injuries or lack of, among other things. However predicting his ADP is far easier. There is close to zero probability that in early September 2011 his ADP is top 5. I would bet a very large amount with anybody interested, and I would not break a sweat.
Heck, depending on how players perform in weeks 11-17, which team drafts who in April, free agent signings, preseason injuries, coaching changes, etc., I would not fall off my chair if even a guy like Moreno had an ADP higher than Hillis next year. There is still lots to happen before the 2011 fantasy drafts: Moreno could have a huge 2nd half, Hillis might slow down or get injured, the Broncos might draft a big lineman, backup RB for Broncos might get injured in preseason, Hardesty might impress in camp, etc.
Masked Vigilante
Footballguy
Is anyone else concerned with his fumbles?
