It might be just me...but we've got a TON of buy-low candidates. (1 Viewer)

[Keys Myaths]

It seems like news and speculation has severely lowered the value of certain players, much moreso than the news actually warrants. So, who are you trying to trade for because of this, and why?

A quick list from me:

1. Clinton Portis: Every piece of news is positive right now. He's starting week 1. He seems fine in practice. Yet, everyone still has him very low on their boards. Is the next 5 days the last time we'll be able to get him at such a low price?

2. Ronnie Brown: This would be geared more toward FBG leagues, but Brown is taking a nosedive with the Chatman news, even though this is really nothing new. Backups generally get 25-30% of the carries these days, but a lot of people are overreacting because the coach "doesn't like" Brown (again, speculation).

3. Kevin Jones: Obviously, this is for later in the season, but can we really see Tatum Bell taking the full-time position away from him? I really can't. He's such a bargain right now, because owners don't want to take the "chance".

4. Torry Holt: Yes, his knee is not in fun shape. But he's slowly dipping into WR2 territory, and that's ridiculous for someone who's proven to be as tough and good as Holt. In dynasty, he scares me, but for this year, I'd definitely be buying low.

Who else do you have? Why? How long will we be able to buy low on your player?

 

[BroadwayG]

Desi Arnaz Battle

 

[fsufan]

E James in dynasty

I gave cotchery and 1st in 08 for James and S. Young. did not feel that was alot for a RB that has 2 or 3 solid years left in him. He will be my #4 RB, added James for depth

 

[Jason Wood]

It seems like news and speculation has severely lowered the value of certain players, much moreso than the news actually warrants. So, who are you trying to trade for because of this, and why?

A quick list from me:

1. Clinton Portis: Every piece of news is positive right now. He's starting week 1. He seems fine in practice. Yet, everyone still has him very low on their boards. Is the next 5 days the last time we'll be able to get him at such a low price? He's creeping back up, at least in the last two leagues I've done over the last five days.

2. Ronnie Brown: This would be geared more toward FBG leagues, but Brown is taking a nosedive with the Chatman news, even though this is really nothing new. Backups generally get 25-30% of the carries these days, but a lot of people are overreacting because the coach "doesn't like" Brown (again, speculation). I couldn't agree more, you can roster him in the 3rd or later in almost any draft, yet he'll push for top-15 numbers

3. Kevin Jones: Obviously, this is for later in the season, but can we really see Tatum Bell taking the full-time position away from him? I really can't. He's such a bargain right now, because owners don't want to take the "chance". Depend on your league. He went in the 6th round in last night's staff league, but I got him in the 14th on Friday night.

4. Torry Holt: Yes, his knee is not in fun shape. But he's slowly dipping into WR2 territory, and that's ridiculous for someone who's proven to be as tough and good as Holt. In dynasty, he scares me, but for this year, I'd definitely be buying low. He's one of the main guys that will either be tremendous value or an outright bust. If his knee isn't an issue, you're getting a top 5 wideout two rounds later than he should go. But if that knee isn't right, you're wasting a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

Who else do you have? Why? How long will we be able to buy low on your player?

The real value guys are:*** Isaac Bruce: Already going far too late before Holt's knee concerns, still not being recognized for a top-25 lock with upside beyond

*** LenDale White: Looks like the starter to me in TEN

*** LaMont Jordan: Is the starter and will catch a ton of passes from whoever is under center

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

 

[shredhead]

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

Yeah, I never draft backup kickers, but my starter (Mare) has a bye in week 4. I may drop somebody (Jennings or Adrian Peterson(Chi)) to get Crosby. Then I'll drop one of the kickers to get my bye week defense (week 6).

 

[AngryGorilla]

I agree with all of these, I've been trying to trade for Holt, or Bruce, Battle or KJones.

I drafted Lamont Jordan in the 8th round of a 16 team league. Based in Denver, so Raiders get all the hate. I hope you're right Wood, Jordan could have some of the best value.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year.

Fred Taylor is another guy I'm getting great value on. He's still the starter there and IMO will get more carries than MJD. MJD had a great season and has a nice career ahead of him, but a lot of his value last year was tied into all the TDs that he had.

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

And agreed on Kevin Jones. The fact that the Lions are so desperate to get him back even a game or two earlier, that they didn't put him on the PUP list, speaks volumes about how they feel about Jones compared to Bell.

You're also probably right on Portis. He went obscenely late in my 14 team draft the other night. Although I do think that Gibbs will use Betts a lot more than people think, even if Portis is 100% healthy.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Caddy?

 

[Beaumont]

It seems like news and speculation has severely lowered the value of certain players, much moreso than the news actually warrants. So, who are you trying to trade for because of this, and why?

A quick list from me:

1. Clinton Portis: Every piece of news is positive right now. He's starting week 1. He seems fine in practice. Yet, everyone still has him very low on their boards. Is the next 5 days the last time we'll be able to get him at such a low price? He's creeping back up, at least in the last two leagues I've done over the last five days.

2. Ronnie Brown: This would be geared more toward FBG leagues, but Brown is taking a nosedive with the Chatman news, even though this is really nothing new. Backups generally get 25-30% of the carries these days, but a lot of people are overreacting because the coach "doesn't like" Brown (again, speculation). I couldn't agree more, you can roster him in the 3rd or later in almost any draft, yet he'll push for top-15 numbers

3. Kevin Jones: Obviously, this is for later in the season, but can we really see Tatum Bell taking the full-time position away from him? I really can't. He's such a bargain right now, because owners don't want to take the "chance". Depend on your league. He went in the 6th round in last night's staff league, but I got him in the 14th on Friday night.

4. Torry Holt: Yes, his knee is not in fun shape. But he's slowly dipping into WR2 territory, and that's ridiculous for someone who's proven to be as tough and good as Holt. In dynasty, he scares me, but for this year, I'd definitely be buying low. He's one of the main guys that will either be tremendous value or an outright bust. If his knee isn't an issue, you're getting a top 5 wideout two rounds later than he should go. But if that knee isn't right, you're wasting a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

Who else do you have? Why? How long will we be able to buy low on your player?

The real value guys are:*** Isaac Bruce: Already going far too late before Holt's knee concerns, still not being recognized for a top-25 lock with upside beyond

*** LenDale White: Looks like the starter to me in TEN

*** LaMont Jordan: Is the starter and will catch a ton of passes from whoever is under center

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

Lendale is an excellent pick ...

 

[jonred]

One of my drafts last week felt like a who's who of big-name buy-low players. In an 8 team re-draft I got:

C. Portis (5.4)....Hopefully will be my pick of the draft. When healthy, he's a top 10 back yet was RB18

D. McNabb (6.5)...Had to back him up early, but I love him when he's playing

R. Moss (7.4)...Great value for a guy who could easily light it up with Brady this season

S. Moss (9.4)....Looking for a bounce back with an improving Campbell

F. Taylor (12.5)....Me likey getting a starting RB as my RB5

W. Dunn (15.4)...Ditto with Dunn

There seem to be a number of people such as these guys who have the potential to be great value plays this season.

 

[SSOG]

Ben Roethlisberger. I don't know why, but I've been able to get him as my QB2 in every league I've participated in, generally as the 14th-16th QB off the board. Look, last year was a TERRIBLE season for him- he got hit by a car and had pieces of his body cut out just weeks before the season- and he still finished as QB10. Unless he's been riding around without a helmet again, he's a near LOCK to finish in the same ballpark again, at worst.

Daunte Culpepper. This is more of a sleeper than a "buy low", but this guy is only 30 years old, has performed in the past at an uberstud level without Randy Moss on his team, and has finished as the #1 QB in fantasy football FOUR TIMES (including one finish as the #1 player in fantasy football by VBD at *ANY POSITION*). He holds the record for most total yards in a season, he's one of the most accurate QBs in NFL history, he's a year and a half removed from his injury, and most importantly, he's ACTUALLY LOOKED GOOD this preseason. This isn't to suggest that he's not without his risks, or that I honestly think he's going to match his lofty performances from the past, but I think he'll be a very serviceable backup QB (maybe in the 16-20 range) with out-of-this-world upside. No way in hell should be currently be going as a QB4 (which is what I've rostered him at in all leagues). Hell, he'd be one of the best QB3 options in the league if it really came down to it, and I wouldn't be totally adverse to taking him as my QB2 if my QB1 was dependable and I thought that's what I had to do to land him. Mediocre QB20ish guys are always available on waivers during the season if he winds up busting.

Deshaun Foster. I don't like the guy- AT ALL- and I think he's tremendously overrated, but I'm always a firm believer in the basic idea that, when you aren't dealing with a special-case RBBC where the backup gets added value through receptions or GL carries (Bush and Jones-Drew), the starter should always be drafted BEFORE the backup... and Foster is currently the starter. He actually holds the distinction as being the last clear starter off the board, which presents value.

Kevin Jones. Keys covered this one pretty well. Let me add that KJ was a STUD last season before he got hurt. He was easily in the top 10, despite a below-average rushing effort. People really underrate the value receiving yards can add to an RB (much like they underrate how much of a difference rushing yards can make for a QB).

Owen Daniels. I feel very confident saying that this is the lowest his value is going to be for a long time.

 

[Sinatrasdead]

Why Mason Crosby? It looks like he might have accuracy issues. I like K's in the last round to but what makes you think he'll be better than someone like Lindell or Hanson?

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8447/news

It seems like news and speculation has severely lowered the value of certain players, much moreso than the news actually warrants. So, who are you trying to trade for because of this, and why?

A quick list from me:

1. Clinton Portis: Every piece of news is positive right now. He's starting week 1. He seems fine in practice. Yet, everyone still has him very low on their boards. Is the next 5 days the last time we'll be able to get him at such a low price? He's creeping back up, at least in the last two leagues I've done over the last five days.

2. Ronnie Brown: This would be geared more toward FBG leagues, but Brown is taking a nosedive with the Chatman news, even though this is really nothing new. Backups generally get 25-30% of the carries these days, but a lot of people are overreacting because the coach "doesn't like" Brown (again, speculation). I couldn't agree more, you can roster him in the 3rd or later in almost any draft, yet he'll push for top-15 numbers

3. Kevin Jones: Obviously, this is for later in the season, but can we really see Tatum Bell taking the full-time position away from him? I really can't. He's such a bargain right now, because owners don't want to take the "chance". Depend on your league. He went in the 6th round in last night's staff league, but I got him in the 14th on Friday night.

4. Torry Holt: Yes, his knee is not in fun shape. But he's slowly dipping into WR2 territory, and that's ridiculous for someone who's proven to be as tough and good as Holt. In dynasty, he scares me, but for this year, I'd definitely be buying low. He's one of the main guys that will either be tremendous value or an outright bust. If his knee isn't an issue, you're getting a top 5 wideout two rounds later than he should go. But if that knee isn't right, you're wasting a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

Who else do you have? Why? How long will we be able to buy low on your player?

The real value guys are:*** Isaac Bruce: Already going far too late before Holt's knee concerns, still not being recognized for a top-25 lock with upside beyond

*** LenDale White: Looks like the starter to me in TEN

*** LaMont Jordan: Is the starter and will catch a ton of passes from whoever is under center

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

 

[Jason Wood]

Ben Roethlisberger. I don't know why, but I've been able to get him as my QB2 in every league I've participated in, generally as the 14th-16th QB off the board. Look, last year was a TERRIBLE season for him- he got hit by a car and had pieces of his body cut out just weeks before the season- and he still finished as QB10. Unless he's been riding around without a helmet again, he's a near LOCK to finish in the same ballpark again, at worst.Daunte Culpepper. This is more of a sleeper than a "buy low", but this guy is only 30 years old, has performed in the past at an uberstud level without Randy Moss on his team, and has finished as the #1 QB in fantasy football FOUR TIMES (including one finish as the #1 player in fantasy football by VBD at *ANY POSITION*, to my knowledge the only time a QB has claimed that honor). He holds the record for most total yards in a season, he's one of the most accurate QBs in NFL history, he's a year and a half removed from his injury, and most importantly, he's ACTUALLY LOOKED GOOD this preseason. This isn't to suggest that he's not without his risks, or that I honestly think he's going to match his lofty performances from the past, but I think he'll be a very serviceable backup QB (maybe in the 16-20 range) with out-of-this-world upside. No way in hell should be currently be going as a QB4 (which is what I've rostered him at in all leagues). Hell, he'd be one of the best QB3 options in the league if it really came down to it, and I wouldn't be totally adverse to taking him as my QB2 if my QB1 was dependable and I thought that's what I had to do to land him. Mediocre QB20ish guys are always available on waivers during the season if he winds up busting.Deshaun Foster. I don't like the guy- AT ALL- and I think he's tremendously overrated, but I'm always a firm believer in the basic idea that, when you aren't dealing with a special-case RBBC where the backup gets added value through receptions or GL carries (Bush and Jones-Drew), the starter should always be drafted BEFORE the backup... and Foster is currently the starter. He actually holds the distinction as being the last clear starter off the board, which presents value.Kevin Jones. Keys covered this one pretty well. Let me add that KJ was a STUD last season before he got hurt. He was easily in the top 10, despite a below-average rushing effort. People really underrate the value receiving yards can add to an RB (much like they underrate how much of a difference rushing yards can make for a QB).Owen Daniels. I feel very confident saying that this is the lowest his value is going to be for a long time.

I agree with all of these save for Foster; who I think is going at FAIR value (not overvalued per se, but not a steal either).Owen Daniels' rookie numbers were as good, or better than most of the elite TEs in the league today. Do I think he'll have Shockey/Gonzo/Gates numbers in '07? No, but I think he'll be the 2nd most targeted player in Houston and will easily pus for top 8-10 TE numbers. We've already discussed my feelings on KJ. I LOVE Big Ben as value this year. Think he's a fringe top-10 fantasy passer and can be had often after the QB2 run starts in your league. I've seen several cases where Cutler, Leinart, Favre, etc...go ahead of him. Culpepper is still risky in leagues where you are only rostering 2QBs, but in deeper leagues he's astonishingly great risk/reward. I rostered Culpep as my QB3 in our Footballguys staff league last night very late. Worst case I drop him and either go with 2 QBs or pickup someone else off waivers. Best case I have a top 15 fantasy QB as my 3rd stringer.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I'm intrigued with Lamont Jordan. I hope I can snag him late. Draft is tonight and I am having a real hard time working today.

 

[ckalltheway]

Lee Evans has a tough schedule the first few weeks. The guy who owns him in our league also has TO so I may target an Evans trade in a few wweks.

 

[corpcow]

3. Kevin Jones: Obviously, this is for later in the season, but can we really see Tatum Bell taking the full-time position away from him? I really can't. He's such a bargain right now, because owners don't want to take the "chance".

I've actually seen him dropped entirely in a few leagues. Either way he's a good guy to target and stash away as an RB5 who could eventually be a stud again for a playoff run.

 

[corpcow]

Lee Evans has a tough schedule the first few weeks. The guy who owns him in our league also has TO so I may target an Evans trade in a few wweks.

Not to mention Evans has always been a bit of a slow starter... and he's Mr. December

 

[corpcow]

Ben Roethlisberger. I don't know why, but I've been able to get him as my QB2 in every league I've participated in, generally as the 14th-16th QB off the board. Look, last year was a TERRIBLE season for him- he got hit by a car and had pieces of his body cut out just weeks before the season- and he still finished as QB10. Unless he's been riding around without a helmet again, he's a near LOCK to finish in the same ballpark again, at worst.

Let's also not forget that he started terrible, and really turned it on towards the end of the season. It's not a coincidence that this was about the time Santonio started to really emerge as a playmaker. Bruce Arians is going to open up the offense and let him run more no-huddle. I've targeted Ben in nearly every league, and he's a great value with top 10 or better upside.There was a great (guest) article written on FBG laying out why he would exceed his QB10 finish last year, but I can't seem to find the link now.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Hines Ward is a perenial undervalued WR and from all of the rankings charts I've seen, is once again this year. He's not over the hill yet.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I expect one or both of Culpepper and Brady to finish ahead of Manning in end-of-year stats.

I expect Addai to finish with 400 more yards from scrimmage than LT or SJAX; the issue will be if he does or does not achieve SJAX expectations on TDs. If so, Addai finishes as the #1 fantasy back. I took SJAX at 1.02 but if I truly had a sac I would have taken Addai.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Off topic:

Keys, I always looked at your username as "keys mathis", even though it isn't spelled that way.

Now that you have

"I was driving home from work last week when the brilliance that is your User Name finally hit me.

honetic:"

in your sig, I had to figure out what the significance is.... thought about it for about a minute, didn't come up with anything, moved on to other threads.

It just hit me. I laughed.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I expect one or both of Culpepper and Brady to finish ahead of Manning in end-of-year stats.I expect Addai to finish with 400 more yards from scrimmage than LT or SJAX; the issue will be if he does or does not achieve SJAX expectations on TDs. If so, Addai finishes as the #1 fantasy back. I took SJAX at 1.02 but if I truly had a sac I would have taken Addai.

Bold, but..... Culpepper? Are we talking about PEYTON Manning?Also, Addai is going to have to finish with 2400-2800 yards to prove your second expectation correct. That's a lot of yards.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

Why Mason Crosby? It looks like he might have accuracy issues. I like K's in the last round to but what makes you think he'll be better than someone like Lindell or Hanson?

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8447/news

I wouldn't base your thoughts on Crosby on that new tidbit. Over the entire preseason, he was more accurate than incumbent Dave Rayner. So much so that Rayner was cut, and Rayner had a good preseason. Green Bay's defense should be pretty good, and they still look like they may have some issues in the red zone. That makes a strong legged kicker very attractive.

 

[zamboni]

Hines Ward is a perenial undervalued WR and from all of the rankings charts I've seen, is once again this year. He's not over the hill yet.

I don't think Ward has been undervalued over the past few years - if anything, based on his declining production, I'd say he may have been overvalued.But this year, I think he may have moved to undervalued territory. Many are assuming that Holmes will take over the #1 WR spot, but Ward isn't going anywhere for awhile IMO. Kind of reminds me several years ago when people thought the same thing about Burress, yet Ward kept out-producing the would-be upstart.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

I can get a kicker with top 10 upside in the last round of my draft?

 

[TheFanatic]

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

I do not like Ahman Green. I just don't see the him getting any goal line carries due to his age. They aren't going to wear the guy down at the goal line when they have other options that can take those carries and the wear and tear...

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Daunte Culpepper. This is more of a sleeper than a "buy low", but this guy is only 30 years old, has performed in the past at an uberstud level without Randy Moss on his team

When? Culpepper's last good year was 2004, when Moss was on the Vikings.(BTW, I like all of your picks, including Culpepper)

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

I do not like Ahman Green. I just don't see the him getting any goal line carries due to his age. They aren't going to wear the guy down at the goal line when they have other options that can take those carries and the wear and tear...

Why wouldn't they ride Green into the ground? It's not like he's their future.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

A lot of good picks here. Some guys not mentioned:

Ronald Curry. Not a deep sleeper, but I'm seeing him around WR40 with top 20 upside in PPR. Culpepper is a huge upgrade over prior Raiders QB's.

Joe Horn. Color me confused on this one. He was a WR2 last year when healthy, with a burgeoning stud across from him taking most of the targets. Big downgrade at QB, but he should easily lead the team in targets. Seems like a prime candidate for a McCardell-like top 15 season, and you can get him for a song.

Kevin Curtis. I don't know how much I like him in Dynasty due to all of the uncertainty at PHI QB, but I've always loved his talent. He seems like Stallworth with good hands. Top 15 upside for 30-40 ADP.

Between these guys, and Bruce/Clayton/Berrian/Holmes/Edwards, I think there is crazy amounts of value in the WR20-40 ADP range.

Not so hot on the late-round RB's this year. There are a bunch of RB's with top 10 upside and bust downside (KJ, Bell, Foster, Betts, Norwood, Jordan, MBIII, Julius Jones...). Seems that if you're in an RB-heavy league, they will go too early, and if you're in an RB-light league, they're not worth the pick when there are solid WR's on the board.

EDIT: says the guy who just took Norwood over Curtis in a 1RB-2WR-1Flex PPR league...

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

I can get a kicker with top 10 upside in the last round of my draft?

yes, and his name is Nick Folk

 

[TheFanatic]

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

I do not like Ahman Green. I just don't see the him getting any goal line carries due to his age. They aren't going to wear the guy down at the goal line when they have other options that can take those carries and the wear and tear...

Why wouldn't they ride Green into the ground? It's not like he's their future.

He's not the future, but I believe he is this year and possibly next. They will want to keep him healthy this year and have him around next year to teach whichever rook they select in the first couple of rounds in the draft. Give him goal line carries and I doubt he makes it through this year....

 

[PatsFan72]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

 

[zamboni]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him. For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

I do not like Ahman Green. I just don't see the him getting any goal line carries due to his age. They aren't going to wear the guy down at the goal line when they have other options that can take those carries and the wear and tear...

Has Green ever really been a goalline RB though? I always thought of him as being a guy that got most of his TDs by breaking somewhat longer runs and slipping out to make catches in the endzone.

 

[zamboni]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him. For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

Then again, I did read this, so who knows...Panthers | Foster to start season as No. 1 running back

Tue, 4 Sep 2007 09:17:39 -0700

Carolina Panthers RB DeShaun Foster has held onto the team's starting running back spot. However, Foster will split carries with RB DeAngelo Williams. Foster will likely receive the goal-line carries for the team.

 

[PatsFan72]

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him.

For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

More of a late first round pick (27th), but still 1st round. I haven't seen him do better then Foster in the old scheme, and now they are changing things to better suit Foster's running style, I think. I know it was what Williams ran in college, but I think Foster will be a better back in it too.As the 30-something RB taken, I like value, and he will get a good chance to start off strong against one of the worst run Ds in St. Louis, then mediocre ones in HOU, ATL and TB.

It is a risk, and Williams could very well unseat him, but again, at where he's being taken, I like the value, and from what I've seen of them, I like Foster in the new system more.

 

[corpcow]

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him.

For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

More of a late first round pick (27th), but still 1st round. I haven't seen him do better then Foster in the old scheme, and now they are changing things to better suit Foster's running style.As the 30-something RB taken, I like value, and he will get a good chance to start off strong against one of the worst run Ds in St. Louis, then mediocre ones in HOU, ATL and TB.

It is a risk, and Williams could very well unseat him, but again, at where he's being taken, I like the value, and from what I've seen of them, I like Foster in the new system more.

When they first made the transition to the new zone blocking scheme, it was looking good for DeAngelo, who put up HUGE numbers at Memphis in that scheme. Then in mid-August, it seemed Foster was doing very well in the zone-blocking while DeAngelo struggled.The simple fact is, Foster is value as a starting RB coming off the board well after many backup RBs (including his own). I'd put Julius Jones in the same camp, with Barber often going several rounds earlier.

 

[zamboni]

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him.

For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

More of a late first round pick (27th), but still 1st round. I haven't seen him do better then Foster in the old scheme, and now they are changing things to better suit Foster's running style, I think. I know it was what Williams ran in college, but I think Foster will be a better back in it too.As the 30-something RB taken, I like value, and he will get a good chance to start off strong against one of the worst run Ds in St. Louis, then mediocre ones in HOU, ATL and TB.

It is a risk, and Williams could very well unseat him, but again, at where he's being taken, I like the value, and from what I've seen of them, I like Foster in the new system more.

Can't argue with you there. He's my RB4, so I'm hoping for the best as well.

 

[1huskerfan]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him. For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

I never buy into this line of thinking. The HC has his own self preservation as higher priority than the GM's and he will play whomever gives him the best shot to win. This has made Tom Jones and D Foster great value picks for the last couple years.

 

[zamboni]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him. For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

I never buy into this line of thinking. The HC has his own self preservation as higher priority than the GM's and he will play whomever gives him the best shot to win. This has made Tom Jones and D Foster great value picks for the last couple years.

I don't think Foster has been a tremendous value pick to date. As for TJ, I don't view that as a good example of coaching self-preservation. He obviously became a huge value pick once Benson held out and set back his timetable, and clearly TJ earned it. But here we are a few years later, with the Bears having gotten rid of Jones to enable Benson to get a shot.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

As the 30-something RB taken, I like value, and he will get a good chance to start off strong against one of the worst run Ds in St. Louis, then mediocre ones in HOU, ATL and TB.

IMO ST. Louis run D will be much improved this year.

 

[Willowdoc]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him. For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

Why in the world do you say this? Foster outplayed Williams in the preseason, won the job. foster is going to have to get injured or fall on his face for Williams to be the starter. Foster is not old and teams don't play yougn guys in the season to see what they've got unless they are out of contention or the coach is Mike Shanahan. Williams had an opportunity last year when Foster got hurt (though he was also hurting) and in the preseason and hasn't impressed anyone either time. He'll probably have another opportunity when Foster gets his inevitable injury. but until then Foster will be the guy.

 

[zamboni]

I was able to get DeShaun Foster low in all 3 of my leagues. Williams went before him all 3 times. It's ridiculous. Foster was the starter last year and Fox has made it clear that he's their starter this year...

This is the sleeper I'm targeting in all drafts/auctions. Looking at the changes they are making to the offense, it just seems like a good situation for him to have a breakout year. He's always been a decent runner, over 4 YPC career, and now with the zone blocking, and less of a proven WR group, I see him getting more then his usual 30+ receptions this year. They have a decent run schedule too, and, although it is preseason, he does have a 6.1 YPC it limited work. They have some soft run D's to start the season as they're getting used to the new scheme, so he shouldn't lose his spot to Williams, and may even gain more percentage of carries by starting off strong.He's going very late in drafts, mostly because of Williams and injury risk, but as the starter for CAR, he looks great as a flex, and could end the season as a solid RB2. His injury risk is high, but at where you can get him, he has a great upside.

While Foster may be the starter now, a key thing to remember is that Williams was a mid-1st round pick and I'm sure the organization will want to see what they've got in him. For Foster to be a major value pick, he's going to have to really outperform D-Will and keep the younger guy off the field, or Willliams will have to get hurt. I'm not sure I'd bank on either prospect.

Why in the world do you say this? Foster outplayed Williams in the preseason, won the job. foster is going to have to get injured or fall on his face for Williams to be the starter. Foster is not old and teams don't play yougn guys in the season to see what they've got unless they are out of contention or the coach is Mike Shanahan. Williams had an opportunity last year when Foster got hurt (though he was also hurting) and in the preseason and hasn't impressed anyone either time. He'll probably have another opportunity when Foster gets his inevitable injury. but until then Foster will be the guy.

I think you're overestimating the hold Foster has on the starting role. If he does well, he'll certainly remain the starter, but if Foster has a couple of stinkers, Williams may very well get a chance.

 

[PatsFan72]

IMO ST. Louis run D will be much improved this year.

OK, they were what, 31st last year? Much improved makes them mediocre.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

I do not like Ahman Green. I just don't see the him getting any goal line carries due to his age. They aren't going to wear the guy down at the goal line when they have other options that can take those carries and the wear and tear...

Why wouldn't they ride Green into the ground? It's not like he's their future.

He's not the future, but I believe he is this year and possibly next. They will want to keep him healthy this year and have him around next year to teach whichever rook they select in the first couple of rounds in the draft. Give him goal line carries and I doubt he makes it through this year....

Don't really understand this line of thinking... Ahman is easily the best back on the team, and is certainly the best goalline back on the team as well... He was signed to a large contract and will be used in all situations, they are not saving him for anything... Expect big things out of Ahman this year!

 

[Unlucky]

I agree with most of these, and have been landing them in quite a few leagues the past couple of days.

Portis, L. Jordan, A. Green, White, and Foster are undervalued. I'm not high on White or Foster, but they are still undervalued. I don't know about Ronnie Brown - I know Chatman will get a bunch of carries, but Brown hasn't blown me away with his numbers thus far in his career, so I think he's about right, in the RB 15 to 20 range.

At WR, Bruce is definitely undervalued, but I'm not sure Holt is yet - he is still the 5th WR off the board in the leagues I've done the past few days. Curry is a nice sleeper pick as well. I hate K. Curtis - I don't think he's that good.

Owen Daniels is a TE that I do like quite a bit, but with so many quality TEs out there, he'd really have to outperform my expectations to be considered undervalued. Dallas Clark is another underrated TE. His injury last year put a damper on his numbers, and I think Gonzalez has scared many away as well.

 

[Gopher State]

It seems like news and speculation has severely lowered the value of certain players, much moreso than the news actually warrants. So, who are you trying to trade for because of this, and why?

A quick list from me:

1. Clinton Portis: Every piece of news is positive right now. He's starting week 1. He seems fine in practice. Yet, everyone still has him very low on their boards. Is the next 5 days the last time we'll be able to get him at such a low price? He's creeping back up, at least in the last two leagues I've done over the last five days.

2. Ronnie Brown: This would be geared more toward FBG leagues, but Brown is taking a nosedive with the Chatman news, even though this is really nothing new. Backups generally get 25-30% of the carries these days, but a lot of people are overreacting because the coach "doesn't like" Brown (again, speculation). I couldn't agree more, you can roster him in the 3rd or later in almost any draft, yet he'll push for top-15 numbers

3. Kevin Jones: Obviously, this is for later in the season, but can we really see Tatum Bell taking the full-time position away from him? I really can't. He's such a bargain right now, because owners don't want to take the "chance". Depend on your league. He went in the 6th round in last night's staff league, but I got him in the 14th on Friday night.

4. Torry Holt: Yes, his knee is not in fun shape. But he's slowly dipping into WR2 territory, and that's ridiculous for someone who's proven to be as tough and good as Holt. In dynasty, he scares me, but for this year, I'd definitely be buying low. He's one of the main guys that will either be tremendous value or an outright bust. If his knee isn't an issue, you're getting a top 5 wideout two rounds later than he should go. But if that knee isn't right, you're wasting a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

Who else do you have? Why? How long will we be able to buy low on your player?

The real value guys are:*** Isaac Bruce: Already going far too late before Holt's knee concerns, still not being recognized for a top-25 lock with upside beyond

*** LenDale White: Looks like the starter to me in TEN

*** LaMont Jordan: Is the starter and will catch a ton of passes from whoever is under center

*** Mason Crosby: Yes, you read that right. Could easily be a top 8-10 kicker this year and you can grab him in the last round of your draft

Great posting on Holt, he could end up being one of the biggest busts this year. The value Bruce presents is shocking based on where he is being drafted.

 

[SSOG]

Daunte Culpepper. This is more of a sleeper than a "buy low", but this guy is only 30 years old, has performed in the past at an uberstud level without Randy Moss on his team

When? Culpepper's last good year was 2004, when Moss was on the Vikings.(BTW, I like all of your picks, including Culpepper)

Read this thread for full details, but here are a few highlights:Randy Moss got hurt in the first half of week 6 of 2004, and didn't return until week 12. Pro-rate Culpepper's numbers from the second half of week 6 on through week 11 and you know what C'Pep was on pace for without Moss? 4145/35/8, and that's ignoring the rushing numbers (which were, needless to say, significant)- Now, some people subscribe to this theory that Randy Moss possessed magical, mystical powers that somehow made Daunte Culpepper a better QB if Moss even set foot on the field, whether he was targeted or not. Personally, I find this assertion positively ludicrous, but we might as well address this while we're at it. Randy Moss appeared in the week 8 game, where he was the target of one pass (which he failed to catch). He was also on the field in week 7, although he wasn't targeted once. If you take out those two games out and then re-prorate the numbers based entirely on games where Randy Moss wasn't on the field- namely, the latter half of week 6, and all of weeks 9, 10, and 11- then instead of being on pace for 4145/35/8, Culpepper was actually on pace for 4145/41/4.5. That's right, by removing the games where Randy Moss played but was ineffective, Daunte Culpepper actually INCREASED HIS TOUCHDOWN PACE BY 6 AND ALMOST CUT HIS INTERCEPTIONS IN HALF. Daunte Culpepper was actually on pace for more TDs in the time that Randy Moss missed than during the time when Moss was actually on the field!

As for 2005, everyone likes to call 2005 a horrible season for Culpepper, but the reality is that it was just a horrible first two games, followed by a dominant next 4 games. Outside of Culpepper and Brad Johnson, guess how many pro bowls the Minnesota Vikings offensive players in 2005 have accounted for in their ENTIRE CAREERS. Stumped? The answer is one. Michael Bennett was a pro bowler in 2002. Outside of that, there wasn't a single Minnesota offensive player on the entire team who has made a pro bowl in his entire career (except for K-Rob, but he made the pro bowl as a special teamer). That's 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 4 TEs, and 5 offensive linemen, none of whom has ever been sent to honolulu. That offense was BAD, and to be honest, outside of the first two games, Culpepper wasn't as bad as everyone made him out to be. In the first two games, he was brutal, throwing 8 INTs and 0 TDs. Over the 4 games after that, he had 6 TDs, 4 INTs, 267 yards passing per game, and 25 yards rushing per game. Over a full season, that projects out to 24 TDs, 16 INTs, 4272 yards passing, and 400 yards rushing. Pretty spectacular numbers, if you ask me. The big problem is that he got injured before he had a chance to show erase that horrible start from everyone's mind.

Now, I understand that you can't just pretend the first two games of 2005 didn't happen, but I blame Culpepper's performance there more on the loss of Birk than the loss of Moss. Minny's o-line was an absolute mess and C'Pep was getting absolutely killed. By week 3, the line had started to come together, and Culpepper was back to his usual dominant ways until he lost the season to injury. And even the first two games weren't AS horrible as they seem if you take them in context. In week 1, he had a 40 yard touchdown pass negated by a phantom offensive pi call, and at least one interception was a ball that hit the receiver right in the hands and bounced in the air. Also, Cincinnati had the most interceptions in the league that season, and the Vikings played chuck and duck for the whole 2nd half. It's easy to lose sight of the details and just look at the end-of-year stats and call 2005 a miserable season, but the reality is that it was nothing more than a garden-variety bad season with the potential to become a good season before Culpepper got injured. Remember, in 2003 McNabb averaged 142 yards per game with 3 TDs and 7 INTs over his first 7 games… and 247 yards per game with with 14 TDs and 4 INTs over the last 9 games. Even great QBs go through some rocky stretches sometimes, but that doesn't automatically mean they're chopped liver.

 

[Chaka]

I also like Ahman Green as a nice value pick. Of course the biggest question with Green is can he stay healthy? If he can, he's a top 15 RB pretty easily IMO. Projecting his stats from his 14 games last year, over 16 games it would have been 1636 total yards and about 7 TDs. And I may actually like Houston's O-line and offensive weapons more than GB's at this point.

I do not like Ahman Green. I just don't see the him getting any goal line carries due to his age. They aren't going to wear the guy down at the goal line when they have other options that can take those carries and the wear and tear...

Why wouldn't they ride Green into the ground? It's not like he's their future.

He's not the future, but I believe he is this year and possibly next. They will want to keep him healthy this year and have him around next year to teach whichever rook they select in the first couple of rounds in the draft. Give him goal line carries and I doubt he makes it through this year....

Where is the data that says goal line carries are harder on the body then carries between the 20s?Historically Ahman is also one of the best short yardage backs in the league. I can't imagine why Kubiak would pull him for Ron Dayne, the softest running big man in the history of the game.

 

[EBF]

I like Bernard Berrian as a value pick this year. He's now the clear #1 in Chicago and has reportedly been uncoverable in training camp. Grossman isn't a great QB, but he throws a nice long ball and Berrian is his favorite target. If Berrian stays healthy he should have a top 15-20 season and jump up about 15 spots in the dynasty WR rankings. It's worth noting that he's a free agent after this season, so he has considerable incentive to play well.