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The projections for Ellsbury's counting stats are falling in the general range of B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings. Ellsbury is being drafted well before them. Ellsbury will be a better contributor in AVG/OBP but it's hard to get past the injury risk.
Jennings had 13 HR, 31 SB and 85 R in 132 games last season. The RBI target isn't likely for him if he bats leadoff but that's the case with Ellsbury as well.
The projections for Ellsbury's counting stats are falling in the general range of B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings. Ellsbury is being drafted well before them. Ellsbury will be a better contributor in AVG/OBP but it's hard to get past the injury risk.
Last year's injury seemed a little bit on the fluky side, to me anyway. Since his avg/obp should be significantly higher than Upton/Jennings his R count should be too. He's also not batting behind the pitcher like Upton will. Add in contract year motivation and I think he deserves a loftier ranking. Haven't been getting him in drafts, keep just missing him and settling for Jennings actually, but he is a priority inmy auction.
So this is where my brain is. If I had to bet if JE would hit over X amount of HR or Y amount of SB I'm not sure I'd do it because of the injury risk. But the fact is when you are playing in a 10 team AL only legg picking up someone like JE if he does in fact bounce back in his big contract year can single handedly give you the edge you need to win a title. He hasn't done it often, but he has every reason to do it again this year.If I was the Red Sox, I'd give him a copy of the Mike Bourn contract 30 minutes before each game.
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