TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK TWO SCOUTING REPORTS: BILLS AT JAGUARSPosted by Mike Florio on September 12, 2008, 11:25 a.m. EDT [Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist breaks down three games each week, exclusively for PFT. Here’s his first entry for Week Two.]This is the classic “Tale of Two Cities” game as Buffalo looks to continue its rise as an NFL contender and Jacksonville is faced with an early “must” win to avoid being labeled a pretender. The Bills face the Jags for the third straight year, having split the past two seasons; Buffalo winning at home 27-24 in ’06 and Jacksonville taking last year’s game, 36-14. As with the rest of the AFC East, the Bills see a crack in the door with the injury to Tom Brady, and the Jags just don’t want to fall too far behind in the ultra-competitive AFC South, having just dropped a close game to division rival Tennessee.Offensively, the Bills have to be pleased with continued development of QB Trent Edwards. Edwards was thrust into the starting role in ’07 after a knee injury sidelined J.P. Losman in Week 3. Against Seattle last week he was an efficient 19-30, 215 yards and 1 TD. However Buffalo got off to a snail’s-pace start in the first half. The Bills have five three-and-outs (four to start the game), and a sixth was avoided by a defensive penalty. The only thing keeping the Bills on pace with Seattle was the Seahawks’ own inability to move the chains (five three-and-outs, mixed with two drives of four plays). KEY #1 must be staying out of third down and long on the road. The Bills’ running game needs to get established early, and that could be a tall order versus the likes of Paul Spicer, John Henderson, Rob Meier, and Reggie Hayward. Though normally a bit left-handed, I see the Bills going behind their right side of Kris Chambers and Brad Butler, with added support from TE strength. The Bills statistically are a more efficient rushing team off the right tackle. This pits Chambers and Butler up against Henderson & Spicer. If the Bills can create short yardage on second or third down, it will take the pressure off Edwards and open up the ability to move the chains off the high percentage swing pass, or even allow for some shots downfield.Defensively, the Bills have a chance to pick up where they left off on Sunday. Buffalo recorded five sacks and nine hurries, keeping Matt Hasselbeck off balance and out of rhythm all day (17 of 41, 53.9 rating). Tennessee came after Jags QB David Garrard as well. The Titans defense sacked Garrard seven times, and hurried him 11. He forced two interceptions and finished with a 68.2 rating. The loss of both Vince Manuwai and Mo Williams at the OG positions puts added pressure on center Dennis Norman. Interior stunts and blitz package pick-ups have to be well coordinated. That’s why at times it’s easier to lose an offensive tackle than a center or guard. Look for former Jag DT Marcus Stroud and DT Kyle Williams to create some inside push, which will put pressure in the face of Garrard (KEY #2) and assist both DE’s Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel off the edge in getting to the QB. The Jags have penciled in Uche Nwaneri and Tuten Reyes as replacements at OG.Losing two starters on the O-Line at this point is going to be tough on Jacksonville. Continuity is critical up front, blocking schemes being carefully choreographed to accommodate for pressure from all angles. The best O-Lines are built after years of playing side by side and developing a certain chemistry with each other. Players reach a point where they instinctively know what the man next to them is going to do, when he’s in trouble, when he might rub off to a second level block, etc. Jacksonville couldn’t protect their QB in Week 1 and never established a run game (33 yards and 1.9 average). KEY #3 will be getting RB’s Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew out on the edge and into open space. Jones-Drew was heavily employed off the screen pass in ’07 (third in NFL). To slow down the rush and take advantage of an aggressive Bills front, the Jags might be served well to mix this into their game plan. Also, look for the running game to attack the perimeter more. Buffalo has struggled a bit in stopping the outside run, especially to their right side. Both backs have big-play speed and can hit the home run once in the secondary, another category that has plagued the Bills defense (26th in ’07 giving up runs of 10+ yards). Seattle had 4 runs of 10+ yards this past Sunday.In Jacksonville’s 36-14 victory over Buffalo last season, the defense forced three turnovers (2 picks and 1 fumble recovery). Look for safeties Reggie Nelson and Brian Williams forcing the Bills to cough up the ball as KEY #4 to the game. Williams has CB ball skills and Nelson has shown a knack for opponents’ passes with five interceptions in ’07. He also forced two fumbles last season. Buffalo’s WR’s Josh Reed and Lee Evans are solid, but should be handled with man coverage by the Jags’ corner tandem of Drayton Florence and Rashean Mathis. The two WR’s weren’t much of a factor in last season’s outcome and this should free up the safeties to create some plays in both phases of the game. Getting Williams on the field was a shrewd move by the Jags coaching staff. He’s excellent in pass defense and one of the better (if not the best) tacklers against the run for the Jacksonville secondary. I see these two having big games. KEY #5 will be the ability of Jacksonville’s special teams unit to hang with the explosiveness of Buffalo’s. Last week the Bills ran back a punt for a TD, threw for a TD out of FG formation and then forced and recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff. Buffalo scored on a 30-yard pass the very next play. This productivity was the single biggest reason the Bills opened 2008 with a win.