Das Boot said:
I recommend reading and re-reading the below post as many times as it takes to sink in...
If you remove the veil of fantasy football this isn't hard to understand:KC/Haley liked what they saw out Charles last year, but can't ignore the fact that he has never taken the pounding that being a RB1 for a full season inflicts. There is the possibility that they simply don't think his slight frame could handle anywhere near 250 carries.They brought in a veteran back who they know can withstand the pounding and get tough yards when needed. This was a great signing for their team and added a missing dimension to their backfield that they knew they would be in trouble without.The back they brought in has been a productive lead back for the last 5 years in this league, and is a warrior in terms of work ethic and a leader. They knew this would add an element of competition in camp that would raise the effort they get from all their backs.So now in camp the expected is happening: the veteran workhorse leader is performing like a veteran workhorse leader and producing the expected competition and raised effort in the backfield. The most likely scenario is that the KC backfield is a mixed bag this year, with Jones starting and taking the up-the-middle and short-yardage carries (yes, that means Goal line). They will use Charles on stretch plays, end arounds, and passing plays, assuming he can block (no reason to think he can't as far as I know). McCluster will also be worked in on similar plays and run some wildcat like he did at Ole Miss (probably a big reason why they drafted him).Bottom line is the addition and regular use of Thomas Jones gives the Chiefs a much more balanced and potentially more effective running game. They have Jones who can take the pounding and get tough yards, who they can run into the dirt if needed, and Charles who adds a completely different element in terms of big-play ability, who they can be careful with because of Jones. And they will use both.It may be a headache for fantasy but it makes perfect sense in real football, and it will only be a headache for those who cling to their own projections and analysis and refuse to acknowledge the obvious: both backs will get theirs, but neither will be a RB1 option on most teams. Both are probably RB2 optiions, with Charles having a drastically higher ceiling, and Jones having a higher floor.
I appreciate and respect this, but I don't necessarily agree with it. Regardless of what Jones has done in the past, I have to look at this season on this team. This is not the 2009 Jets, this is the 2010 Chiefs. Disagree with my conclusions, that is fine, but I anticipate Jones struggling to run effectively on this team. I think opposing defensive coordinators hope Jones is on the field as much as possible. He is not a bad rb, but there are reasons Jones was as effective as he was last year, and many of those reasons don't exist this season in KC. Jones ran a lot last season behind a very good offensive line. He had the best defense in the NFL keeping his team competitive, offensive gameplans were designed in part to protect the rookie qb, his competition for carries was an unproven rookie rb who did, eventually, take over. Understand, I'm not suggesting that Jones won't be used. He should get most of the goal line and short yardage work. There are legitimate concerns over Charles' ability to handle a heavy workload, so Jones has a significant role. Last season, Charles/Johnson combined for 320 carries. If the Chiefs are a little better this year, I think it is reasonable for the 2 lead backs to combine for 350. Charles should get 200 and Jones should get 150. Regardless of who is called the starter, I just don't think Jones can average much more than 3.5 ypc on this team. Charles should average around a yard per carry more than Jones, so Haley would have to be a moron to give Jones more carries. Charles also should be good for 50ish receptions.While I don't think it really matters who is called the starter in terms how the workload is ultimately distributed, I do question Haley in how he has handled the situation. Charles was the 2nd half MVP last season and I'm not aware of anything he has done to justify the apparent slight he has received. I'm fine with Haley making it clear to Charles that nothing is guaranteed and that he has to continue to work and earn what he gets. I'm not so thrilled with Haley making that point by awarding Jones with something he hasn't earned any moreso than Charles. That part of it seems a bit hypocritical. It's jut not possible for Jones to have proven more in 1 month of practice and preseason games than Charles proved over the 2nd half of last season.