Wild Turkies
Footballguy
I see that James Harrison is ranked 45 in the IDP linebacker projections. I'm just wondering why he is rated so low after last year? Is everyone expecting a Bart Scott kind of dropoff, if so, based on what?
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James Harrison rated #45 of IDP LB's (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Wild Turkies
- Start date
Harrison will be hard pressed to have another season like last year. His week 9 blow up game vs Baltimore was almost 25% of his total points for the year.Plus they have some very talented young backers in Woodley and Timmons.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Outside LBs who play in a 3-4 defense rarely put up top 20 numbers and are usually inconsistent from year to year. I don't see Harrison as being an elite talent at OLB like Merriman and Ware, and I have those two ranked around 30 or so. I can't justify Harrison any higher than maybe 40. He had a ridiculous 77 solo tackles (extremely high for a 3-4 OLB), and I highly doubt he is close to that this year, nor do I see him having 7 forced fumbles.
Norton has him projected as OLB15 with 64 solos, 20 assists, 10 sacks, 4 FF, 2 FR, 1 INT, and 5 PDs (187.50 points)
I have him projected as OLB25 with 54 solos, 16 assists, 8 sacks, 3 FF, 1 FR, 1 INT, and 2 PDs (149.00 points)
so that's a pretty big range and probably represents the lower and upper limits of his potential production this year. The 77 solos and 7 FF from last year look like numbers that will be very difficult for him to replicate.
I have him projected as OLB25 with 54 solos, 16 assists, 8 sacks, 3 FF, 1 FR, 1 INT, and 2 PDs (149.00 points)
so that's a pretty big range and probably represents the lower and upper limits of his potential production this year. The 77 solos and 7 FF from last year look like numbers that will be very difficult for him to replicate.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
We were pimping Harrison as a potential rare 3-4 OLB who could have value in all leagues last year, but we were pimping him as a LB3-4 caliber guy (in the 40-50) range in tackle-heavy to standard systems. To be fair, the Pittsburgh zone blitz scheme gives the OLBs there more tackle opportunity than the usual big name edge rushing 3-4 OLBs. However, Tony's point still applies. Check out the player pages for guys like Chad Brown, Joey Porter, Jason Gildon and Greg Lloyd over the years on pro-football-reference. There'll be plenty of 65+ solo, big sack seasons in there. Even a 90 solo tackle performance from Chad Brown in one season if I'm remembering correctly. But there's no year-to-year consistency to be found.
As a result, expecting Harrison to repeat a top 20 finish is asking a lot. But, like Shaun Phillips and guys like Willie McGinest years ago, the all-around 3-4 OLBs that have both 70 solo and 8-10 sack potential are the guys you can safely target in non-big play leagues. I've got him again squarely in that LB4 tier again this year. If you're in a big play system, or have an open LB3 slot behind two consistent studs, Harrison is among the best OLB targets again this year.
As a result, expecting Harrison to repeat a top 20 finish is asking a lot. But, like Shaun Phillips and guys like Willie McGinest years ago, the all-around 3-4 OLBs that have both 70 solo and 8-10 sack potential are the guys you can safely target in non-big play leagues. I've got him again squarely in that LB4 tier again this year. If you're in a big play system, or have an open LB3 slot behind two consistent studs, Harrison is among the best OLB targets again this year.
massraider
Footballguy
In one league that I do, Harrison was the #15 LB last year.take away week 9, and you know where he was ranked?
#45.
corpcow
Footballguy
While I understand your point, you can't just "take away" a week... (I'm using my scoring for the rest of this, which is 1pt per tackle, 0.5 per solo, 3 pts per big play, and 1pt per pass defense)The big thing we can use here to understand consistency is standard deviation. If you look at the top 20 LBs, the average st.dev is 4.35. Harrison is the highest at 7.55 which suggests that the 35 is a huge outlier - the next closest is David Harris at 6.6 mostly because I'm using those early weeks where he didn't start/play a big role.massraider said:
Interestingly, Willis, Ray Lewis, and Demeco Ryans are also above average at 5.7-6.0. In Ryans case, it was because of his huge 28 pt week 7. Ray Lewis had a 27 pt explosion.
Among the most consistet were EJ Henderson (SDev 2.1, never below 5.5 and never above 13.5), Beason at 2.99 SD, and Morrison at 2.86.
But let's dig into Harrison for a minute... his 35 point (in my scoring) outburst is what put him squarely in the top 10 - without it, he's nowhere near an LB1. That said, he was actually very conssitent otherwise. If you just take that big game out entirely, he has a standard deviation of 2.86. If we give him his otherwise average score of 7pts that week, it gives him 110 for the year, which puts him around LB40 in my scoring. If you look at some of the guys in that range (Farrior, Gerald Hayes, Phillips, Adalius Thomas), he would have gotten those numbers with far more consistent week-to-week performances.
SO, while you probably shouldn't expect the same top 10 LB performance from him overall (though as an owner I would certainly love it!), I think his floor isn't as low as it's being made out to be.
Then consider that all of the top LBs had one or two weeks that were real outliers and padded their stats - Ryans had the 28pts, Fletcher had a 22.5 week, Witherspoon had an 18.5 week, Brackett had a 17 pt week, Howard had a 20.5 week. Let's say that Harrison, on top of his relatively consistent week-to-week performance, has one big week - not as big as his 2007 explosion, but scoring 2.13 (the average of those big weeks I previously mentioned).
This gives him 124.3 pts, which would be around #24 on the list...
Anyway thought this might be an interesting look at the reality here
massraider
Footballguy
No you can't just take weeks away, not really. But when looking at how a player helps my team, yes I can take weeks away. It's the same reason I don't like Chad Johnson as my #1 guy if he scores half his points in 3 games. Now, a #3 WR? Sure.And it sounds like the original poster looked at total points from last year, and is thinking, "Hey, that makes no sense...."While I understand your point, you can't just "take away" a week... (I'm using my scoring for the rest of this, which is 1pt per tackle, 0.5 per solo, 3 pts per big play, and 1pt per pass defense)The big thing we can use here to understand consistency is standard deviation. If you look at the top 20 LBs, the average st.dev is 4.35. Harrison is the highest at 7.55 which suggests that the 35 is a huge outlier - the next closest is David Harris at 6.6 mostly because I'm using those early weeks where he didn't start/play a big role.massraider said:
Interestingly, Willis, Ray Lewis, and Demeco Ryans are also above average at 5.7-6.0. In Ryans case, it was because of his huge 28 pt week 7. Ray Lewis had a 27 pt explosion.
Among the most consistet were EJ Henderson (SDev 2.1, never below 5.5 and never above 13.5), Beason at 2.99 SD, and Morrison at 2.86.
But let's dig into Harrison for a minute... his 35 point (in my scoring) outburst is what put him squarely in the top 10 - without it, he's nowhere near an LB1. That said, he was actually very conssitent otherwise. If you just take that big game out entirely, he has a standard deviation of 2.86. If we give him his otherwise average score of 7pts that week, it gives him 110 for the year, which puts him around LB40 in my scoring. If you look at some of the guys in that range (Farrior, Gerald Hayes, Phillips, Adalius Thomas), he would have gotten those numbers with far more consistent week-to-week performances.
SO, while you probably shouldn't expect the same top 10 LB performance from him overall (though as an owner I would certainly love it!), I think his floor isn't as low as it's being made out to be.
Then consider that all of the top LBs had one or two weeks that were real outliers and padded their stats - Ryans had the 28pts, Fletcher had a 22.5 week, Witherspoon had an 18.5 week, Brackett had a 17 pt week, Howard had a 20.5 week. Let's say that Harrison, on top of his relatively consistent week-to-week performance, has one big week - not as big as his 2007 explosion, but scoring 2.13 (the average of those big weeks I previously mentioned).
This gives him 124.3 pts, which would be around #24 on the list...
Anyway thought this might be an interesting look at the reality here
My only point is that Harrison won a game for everyone that had him last year. But the rest of the year, he was just decent. That 45 ranking might be a bit low, but I'm not so sure.
You have to look at the players situation as well, and with Timmons and Woodley, I think there are enough questions to drop him a bit. I don't think harrison's situation is as good as it was last year.
Wild Turkies
Footballguy
"And it sounds like the original poster looked at total points from last year, and is thinking, "Hey, that makes no sense....""
I did look at total points and was surprised there, but that is because I had him in my league last year and he was one of the more consistent players I had.
I did look at total points and was surprised there, but that is because I had him in my league last year and he was one of the more consistent players I had.
massraider
Footballguy
Sorry, didn't mean to put words in your mouth.
corpcow
Footballguy
It's looking like Timmons will move inside and is challenging Foote (perhaps because Harrison has a lock on the SLB role?). Woodley is the starting WLB (and was most of last year). I don't see how his situation has really changed all that much... ??If you read through the numbers I laid out above, the point is that the majority of LBs are relying on a big week or two. It's wrong to discount his big week and not discount others' big weeks simply because his big week was a little bigger. Take out Ryans big game and he's scoring in that LB30 range... and yet he's ranked in the top 3 in almost all formats. (I'm not suggesting that Ryans SHOULDN'T be ranked so high, only that this reasoning is faulty when applied only to Harrison). And as I showed above, Harrison was actually one of the more consistent and reliable options aside from the big week - moreso than many of those ranked ahead of him and especially for an SLB. The fact is, without that ridiculous game we're not having this discussion. I don't think ANYONE here is suggesting that you should consider Harrison an LB1, and I hope no one is holding their breath for another top 10 finish. And certainly, particularly as an SLB, big-play rush guy, you expect fluctuation. The OP simply suggested that LB45 seems low...
