Jarrett Dillard (1 Viewer)

[Hook Em']

First off, let me say that I have more man love for Dillard than most people. I have been following him since he came to Rice and have always thought that I would be taking him even if I had a top 3 rookie pick. Now, having said that, we need to be honest with ourselves here. Dillard did not go until the 5th round. I think it is bull#### that he went that late, but whatever. Add to that he went to a team that is not known for its juggernaut offensive prowess. Add to that they took Mike Thomas a full round before Dillard, and I happen to think Thomas has the talent to be something special.

All of this adds up to Dillard getting lost in the shuffle and maybe, just maybe, in a few years he will have a chance to be a slot guy or something. Trust me, like I said, I still happen to think that Dillard is right there with guys like Crabtree and the rest, but reality has to hit at some point.

I guess I am hoping that someone in here can change my mind because I have the 2.01 and want to take him. Please post your HONEST thoughts on him, now that the draft is over.

I know that Bloom has him 15th overall, but I think that Bloom may be like me, and still evaluating him off of his talent and not off of the reality of the situation.

 

[FUBAR]

I don't know why he fell that far, but I trust my own opinion enough to rank him higher than most 5th round WRs would be. But not enough to keep him in the top 20 overall when every other team didn't think he was worth more than a 5th round pick.

IIRC, there were 20 WRs taken before him. I probably have him around #12. Just above him are Collie and Knox.

 

[vikingsguy22]

I've seen him go as early as early second round in some of my rookie drafts. If you like him...take him at 2.1. Who is to say all the other 2nd round WR's will end up better than him? Dillard has to beat out another rookie (Thomas), a young guy that can't stay healthy (M. Walker) and an aging veteran with bad knees (Holt).

He could very easily work himself into a starting role there sooner than you would think.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

As has been pointed out, there is opportunity in JAX. However I personally love Mike Thomas and I think he's better than Dillard. He also went 37 picks and 5 WRs ahead of Dillard. So I have tempered my enthusiasm of Dillard.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

It's easy to feel like draft position is everything right now, but by midway through camp, it won't matter. It isn't like we didn't see the NFL's blind spot for guys like Dillard coming.

 

[prymetyme25]

It's easy to feel like draft position is everything right now, but by midway through camp, it won't matter. It isn't like we didn't see the NFL's blind spot for guys like Dillard coming.

Good point. The only problem I have with Dillard is the team he went to.

 

[FUBAR]

It's easy to feel like draft position is everything right now, but by midway through camp, it won't matter. It isn't like we didn't see the NFL's blind spot for guys like Dillard coming.

who's saying that? do you completely discount the fact that 32 teams didn't feel Dillard was worth taking before the 5th? Of course there are guys who prove the NFL scouts wrong (Colston, maybe Bess and others), but I just can't completely discount it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

It's easy to feel like draft position is everything right now, but by midway through camp, it won't matter. It isn't like we didn't see the NFL's blind spot for guys like Dillard coming.

who's saying that? do you completely discount the fact that 32 teams didn't feel Dillard was worth taking before the 5th? Of course there are guys who prove the NFL scouts wrong (Colston, maybe Bess and others), but I just can't completely discount it.

Don't assume that scouts make the call in war rooms. Dillard is still exactly the same guy he was before the draft. Judging by the way the third and fourth round WR picks went, teams that took WRs in those rounds were most concerned with size and speed, the two categories where Dillard grades out as average to below average.Another thing to keep in mind here is that teams are taking guys that are 2nd and 3rd rounders on their board in the 5th. For all we know, Jacksonville had both Thomas and Dillard in their top 5 WRs in the draft. Just because Jacksonville took him in the 5th doesn't mean that they gave him a 5th round grade.

ETA: I dont completely discount it, I moved Dillard down from late first to early second round pick in the 100 - but I think it's important to not overreact to the draft positions. You guys are reading my stuff for my talent evaluations and landing spot analysis - anyone can make a list that is just based on the order the players were drafted.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think this is a tough spot because Thomas landed there, too. I think in dynasty leagues, Dillard's still a fine pick, but I'd definitely temper any redraft enthusiasm you had.

 

[EBF]

My advice is simple if you're high on Dillard:

- Don't reach for him over the obvious elite talents (the first round guys and maybe a couple of the 2nd-3rd rounders)

- Take him ahead of the mediocre 3rd-4th round guys

You'll get him on a lot of your teams and you won't overpay. If he flops, it's no big deal because you didn't give up much to get him.

 

[coolnerd]

The biggest issue with draft position is opportunity. No matter what teams say, all things equal the higher the draft choice the more opportuntiy the lower drafted player gets. Dillard is in a good spot in the sense that if he shows well early he can move up the depth chart pretty quickly. That said, if he is showing problems get off the jam (biggest weakenss), how patient are Jags going to be while he develops more strength, or guile?

In rookie (non-idp) drafts looks like anything past about pick 15 or so is getting into players with a lot of questions and unclear opportunity, so in that sense anytime after that is probably no worst than drafting Wallace or Collie or butler.

 

[the branded hand]

My advice is simple if you're high on Dillard:- Don't reach for him over the obvious elite talents (the first round guys and maybe a couple of the 2nd-3rd rounders)- Take him ahead of the mediocre 3rd-4th round guys You'll get him on a lot of your teams and you won't overpay. If he flops, it's no big deal because you didn't give up much to get him.

Reaching, by nature, is always speculative. Allowing value to fall to you is the real discipline.

 

[Matt Waldman]

It's easy to feel like draft position is everything right now, but by midway through camp, it won't matter. It isn't like we didn't see the NFL's blind spot for guys like Dillard coming.

who's saying that? do you completely discount the fact that 32 teams didn't feel Dillard was worth taking before the 5th? Of course there are guys who prove the NFL scouts wrong (Colston, maybe Bess and others), but I just can't completely discount it.

Don't assume that scouts make the call in war rooms. Dillard is still exactly the same guy he was before the draft. Judging by the way the third and fourth round WR picks went, teams that took WRs in those rounds were most concerned with size and speed, the two categories where Dillard grades out as average to below average.Another thing to keep in mind here is that teams are taking guys that are 2nd and 3rd rounders on their board in the 5th. For all we know, Jacksonville had both Thomas and Dillard in their top 5 WRs in the draft. Just because Jacksonville took him in the 5th doesn't mean that they gave him a 5th round grade.

ETA: I dont completely discount it, I moved Dillard down from late first to early second round pick in the 100 - but I think it's important to not overreact to the draft positions. You guys are reading my stuff for my talent evaluations and landing spot analysis - anyone can make a list that is just based on the order the players were drafted.

Well said - if the scouts had their way we would have seen Cutler in Tennessee.

 

[Hook Em']

Thanks for the replies and discussion ya'll. I guess I was just real frustrated with the draft as a whole. I was also frustrated that JAX drafted 3 of the guys that I was looking to take in the 2nd and 3rd round of my rookie draft (Dillard, Thomas, Miller). I am going to go with my gut and take the guy I have been high on for so many years and see what happens. I would love for him to get a chance to learn from Holt and eventually become one of the go to guys there.

Thanks again to you Bloom for you valued insight.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I will preface this with saying I like Dillard more than most. More than most must be defined though. I like him more than most people outside of FBG. I probably like him less than anyone who visits FBG. Dillard by most accounts was not projected to go high, he was a projected 4th-5th round pick in most draft magazines and draft web sites. I was waiting for the draft to come and watch everyone here scratching their heads, he is hyped up on this website more than anywhere else in the draft community. He is ranked as the #21 WR at Scott Wrights draft countdown, probably the site I visit most besides here. He is ranked as the #23 WR in my PFW draft guide. I didn't pick and choose these rankings and find the worst ones, just grabbed the two closest to me.

The truth here is if you're in a league who has never heard of FBG then take this guy in the late 3rd, you'll get him at that point.

If you're in a league that has a bunch of FBGs or even one FBG you'll have to take him in the early 2nd round, if you look at those hyperactive drafts that are full of FBG guys you will see he is going early 2nd round.

I have him ranked somewhere in between these two spots, I guess I will be getting him in my leagues where nobody uses FBG and will not be getting him in leagues with my FBG buddies.

 

[PewterFan]

Add to that he went to a team that is not known for its juggernaut offensive prowess.

While that's true, I like his situation due to lack of long-term competition:The depth chart according to FBG's:Torry HoltMike WalkerDennis Northcutt (PR)Mike ThomasJarett DillardTroy Williamson--Tiquan UnderwoodD'Juan WoodsJason EnglishNate HughesDillard will be given every chance to succeed IMO.

 

[The Football Freak]

Don't be surprised if Dillard produces sooner rather than later. Del Rio is a big proponent of putting the best player on the field (recently to the detriment of 1st round underperformers) and Dillard seems to be coming into the league as a semi-polished player who is a good route runner. I watched some clips of him after the Jags picked him up and I really liked what I saw. He has great feet, is a very sudden coming in and out of his brakes, gets his hips low when he catches and puts on a move, and has fantastic hands. He may not be the fastest reciever (around a 4.5 40 time), but he is very quick, and players like that (see Ernest Wilford) can definitely shine on the Jags. For the record, I like Dillard a little more than Thomas.

As for opportunity, I think the stage is set for either him or Thomas to shine this year. There are no other high priced or high pick players that will be forced onto the field (Holt is only tying up about 4 mil this year) and Dillard/Thomas both have the same chance to impress and start as any of the other recievers. I really don't think they care who is on the field, as long as it is the best player. They obviously want to see what they have with Walker, but I don't think they are married to him or will force him into the #2 slot. If one or both of these rookies can push Northcutt and/or Walker to the 4 or 5 WR spot, that is all the better for the Jags.

Also, Garrard has not shown a tendency to lock in on a player, so again, the signs point to a possibilty of good production from one or both of these rookies. With the addition of Tra as a good pass blocking LT, and the other changes through the draft, don't sleep on the Jags passing attack this year. When Garrard is comfortable, he plays very well.

 

[Christo]

First off, let me say that I have more man love for Dillard than most people. I have been following him since he came to Rice and have always thought that I would be taking him even if I had a top 3 rookie pick. Now, having said that, we need to be honest with ourselves here. Dillard did not go until the 5th round. I think it is bull#### that he went that late, but whatever. Add to that he went to a team that is not known for its juggernaut offensive prowess. Add to that they took Mike Thomas a full round before Dillard, and I happen to think Thomas has the talent to be something special.

All of this adds up to Dillard getting lost in the shuffle and maybe, just maybe, in a few years he will have a chance to be a slot guy or something. Trust me, like I said, I still happen to think that Dillard is right there with guys like Crabtree and the rest, but reality has to hit at some point.

I guess I am hoping that someone in here can change my mind because I have the 2.01 and want to take him. Please post your HONEST thoughts on him, now that the draft is over.

I know that Bloom has him 15th overall, but I think that Bloom may be like me, and still evaluating him off of his talent and not off of the reality of the situation.

But "the reality of the situation" is fleeting. Things change quickly in the NFL and the talent always rises to the top. If you believe he has the talent, you should draft him based upon that. He may sit for a year or two. But that's the purpose of deep rosters in dynasty.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Also, Garrard has not shown a tendency to lock in on a player.

I have to disagree with this statement TFF. Garrard gets overly comfortable with a favorite target. In years past, when he filled in for Leftwich, Jimmy Smith was his locked-on target. Last year, it was Matt Jones. 2007 was a bit different, but I think that whole season was odd. Hell, Reggie Williams scored 10 TD's that year, and I don't think it was because he gained excellent separation in the red zone. I'm thinking that the target #'s would back me up on this. I'm hoping that he'll do better going through his progressions this year, given the probable improvement of the O-line.

 

[The Football Freak]

Also, Garrard has not shown a tendency to lock in on a player.

I have to disagree with this statement TFF. Garrard gets overly comfortable with a favorite target. In years past, when he filled in for Leftwich, Jimmy Smith was his locked-on target. Last year, it was Matt Jones. 2007 was a bit different, but I think that whole season was odd. Hell, Reggie Williams scored 10 TD's that year, and I don't think it was because he gained excellent separation in the red zone. I'm thinking that the target #'s would back me up on this. I'm hoping that he'll do better going through his progressions this year, given the probable improvement of the O-line.

I have to disagree with your disagreement . Last years distribution for targets/receptions went 107/65 (Matt Jones), 75/62 (MJD), 68/44 (Northcutt), 62/37 (Reggie Williams), as well as 112 targets to others WR/RBs, which is a pretty even distribution. You are talking about a 2-3 target difference per game and a 1-2 reception difference between the first and fourth on the receptions list over the course of a season. He spread it around in 2007 as well, and before that he was coming off the bench and understandably throwing to the best target (Jimmy Smith).

 

[FUBAR]

Also, Garrard has not shown a tendency to lock in on a player.

I have to disagree with this statement TFF. Garrard gets overly comfortable with a favorite target. In years past, when he filled in for Leftwich, Jimmy Smith was his locked-on target. Last year, it was Matt Jones. 2007 was a bit different, but I think that whole season was odd. Hell, Reggie Williams scored 10 TD's that year, and I don't think it was because he gained excellent separation in the red zone. I'm thinking that the target #'s would back me up on this. I'm hoping that he'll do better going through his progressions this year, given the probable improvement of the O-line.

I have to disagree with your disagreement . Last years distribution for targets/receptions went 107/65 (Matt Jones), 75/62 (MJD), 68/44 (Northcutt), 62/37 (Reggie Williams), as well as 112 targets to others WR/RBs, which is a pretty even distribution. You are talking about a 2-3 target difference per game and a 1-2 reception difference between the first and fourth on the receptions list over the course of a season. He spread it around in 2007 as well, and before that he was coming off the bench and understandably throwing to the best target (Jimmy Smith).

I know one of these smart staffers has a breakdown of distribution by team. My guess is Jacksonville is better than average on distribution.

 

[coolnerd]

I will preface this with saying I like Dillard more than most. More than most must be defined though. I like him more than most people outside of FBG. I probably like him less than anyone who visits FBG. Dillard by most accounts was not projected to go high, he was a projected 4th-5th round pick in most draft magazines and draft web sites. I was waiting for the draft to come and watch everyone here scratching their heads, he is hyped up on this website more than anywhere else in the draft community. He is ranked as the #21 WR at Scott Wrights draft countdown, probably the site I visit most besides here. He is ranked as the #23 WR in my PFW draft guide. I didn't pick and choose these rankings and find the worst ones, just grabbed the two closest to me. The truth here is if you're in a league who has never heard of FBG then take this guy in the late 3rd, you'll get him at that point.If you're in a league that has a bunch of FBGs or even one FBG you'll have to take him in the early 2nd round, if you look at those hyperactive drafts that are full of FBG guys you will see he is going early 2nd round. I have him ranked somewhere in between these two spots, I guess I will be getting him in my leagues where nobody uses FBG and will not be getting him in leagues with my FBG buddies.

I have found this happens every year with my FBG heavy versus "other" leagues. this is a great site, but individually you do have to be careful of not falling into "group think." We all should investigate when there are gaps between FBGs rankings and other sources or when the pre-draft expectation and post-draft reality are very different.

 

[cstu]

First off, let me say that I have more man love for Dillard than most people. I have been following him since he came to Rice and have always thought that I would be taking him even if I had a top 3 rookie pick. Now, having said that, we need to be honest with ourselves here. Dillard did not go until the 5th round. I think it is bull#### that he went that late, but whatever. Add to that he went to a team that is not known for its juggernaut offensive prowess. Add to that they took Mike Thomas a full round before Dillard, and I happen to think Thomas has the talent to be something special.

All of this adds up to Dillard getting lost in the shuffle and maybe, just maybe, in a few years he will have a chance to be a slot guy or something. Trust me, like I said, I still happen to think that Dillard is right there with guys like Crabtree and the rest, but reality has to hit at some point.

I guess I am hoping that someone in here can change my mind because I have the 2.01 and want to take him. Please post your HONEST thoughts on him, now that the draft is over.

I know that Bloom has him 15th overall, but I think that Bloom may be like me, and still evaluating him off of his talent and not off of the reality of the situation.

But "the reality of the situation" is fleeting. Things change quickly in the NFL and the talent always rises to the top. If you believe he has the talent, you should draft him based upon that. He may sit for a year or two. But that's the purpose of deep rosters in dynasty.

I traded up to draft Dilliard at 2.06 since I think he has a better than even chance of being the #1 in Jax in a couple. I like Thomas as well so either of them could emerge, but Thomas went a lot earlier than Dillard. If you are looking at WR's in the middle of the 2nd you're other options are Tate, Collie and Iglesius. Tate was tough to pass on since he could do very well once he recovers from his ACL.

 

[Scooby1974]

Any updated thoughts on Dilliard? Anyone know how he is looking?

 

[stevegamer]

Any updated thoughts on Dilliard? Anyone know how he is looking?

I like what I've seen in the games I caught. He's got a decent shot, i think.

 

[Scooby1974]

Decent shot at what? Starting? Making the team?

I play in a dynasty league and he's available. Thinking about dropping Ricky Williams or Mike Bell for him.

 

[stevegamer]

Decent shot at what? Starting? Making the team?I play in a dynasty league and he's available. Thinking about dropping Ricky Williams or Mike Bell for him.

Soory to not complete that thought. Being Jacksonville's #1 WR in 2-3 years. I think he has a good shot at starting or being the #3 this season, Holt is #1.

 

[dschuler]

Hook'em: I remember watching Dillard play in college against teams like Texas and some others and thinking that this guy is a stud. And after the NFL draft, my opinion still has not changed. Dillard holds the NCAA record for career touchdown receptions with 60, and that is saying something. However, he is undersized in both height and weight. It could also be argued that he played less competition than if he were to be in a conference such as the SEC, Big 12, etc. Add to it that he was redshirted for a year and played through his senior season, which puts a couple extra years on him than some other receivers in this years draft. He will be 24 by the end of this year, and we all know that receivers can be late bloomers in the NFL. Taking all this into consideration, I think that he could have easily been a 4th round pick, but just too many different things against him for teams to really jump on him and take him earlier at say a late 2nd or early 3rd. Just my .02 though.

 

[lyon812]

I think the biggest problem with Dillard is that Williamson had such a strong preseason. If the light bulb actually did turn on (and the jury is out on that) for Troy, then his path may be slowed until Holt's contract runs out.

 

[dschuler]

I think the biggest problem with Dillard is that Williamson had such a strong preseason. If the light bulb actually did turn on (and the jury is out on that) for Troy, then his path may be slowed until Holt's contract runs out.

Williamson has had a good preseason. Would it look bad for Minnesota if this guy got his #### together and became a #1WR on a different team?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think the biggest problem with Dillard is that Williamson had such a strong preseason. If the light bulb actually did turn on (and the jury is out on that) for Troy, then his path may be slowed until Holt's contract runs out.

Williamson has had a good preseason. Would it look bad for Minnesota if this guy got his #### together and became a #1WR on a different team?

No worse than the Twins letting David Ortiz go. Both were crappy when let go by their respective teams.

 

[Max Power]

I think this is the end. He was cut from the Jags today. We had such high hopes, didn't we?

(Rotoworld) Jaguars waived WR Jarett Dillard. Analysis: Dillard was on the roster bubble even before Jacksonville brought aboard Laurent Robinson, Lee Evans and Justin Blackmon, so his release is hardly a surprise. The 2009 fifth-round pick was given a chance to start down the stretch last season, but responded by catching more than three passes just twice. Dillard finished the year with 29 grabs for 292 yards and a score after missing all of 2010 with a toe injury. His NFL future is dim.

 

[identikit]

He's done IMO.

 

[cstu]

I think this is the end. He was cut from the Jags today. We had such high hopes, didn't we?

(Rotoworld) Jaguars waived WR Jarett Dillard. Analysis: Dillard was on the roster bubble even before Jacksonville brought aboard Laurent Robinson, Lee Evans and Justin Blackmon, so his release is hardly a surprise. The 2009 fifth-round pick was given a chance to start down the stretch last season, but responded by catching more than three passes just twice. Dillard finished the year with 29 grabs for 292 yards and a score after missing all of 2010 with a toe injury. His NFL future is dim.

I was a big fan of his, but I see a lot of Dilliard in Kendall Wright.

 

[Wadsworth]

Poor guy could not say healthy until last season when the Jags passing game was a total mess.