Jaylen Samuels - Steelers RB/TE Hybrid - Dynasty (1 Viewer)

[cobalt_27]

FF players have a lot of up-to-the-second technology but still have an old reel-to-reel projector and lots of connections with actual NFL teams.

Seriously, we just wait for someone to upload (ie, do all the actual work) to an online resource (youtube, draft breakdown, etc). Watch what someone else submits and call it tape watching analysis. Very few give credit where credit is due.

Siting reference material is almost a lost requirement. Even highlight clip makers should be referencing all the clips they "borrowed" to make the cut-up.

Agreed on all counts.  Certain folks here have made a habit of self-inflating what they do sound more impressive and authoritative. 

 

[the lone star]

Maybe Samuels will play some TE after all, but I kinda like him as RB, H-Back, and slot WR.

 

[gabes1919]

Maybe Samuels will play some TE after all, but I kinda like him as RB, H-Back, and slot WR.

I'd prefer if he played the Duke Johnson position: weapon

 

[the lone star]

I'd prefer if he played the Duke Johnson position: weapon

Yeah, McCaffrey does that too, and the Saints like doing that with their RBs. More teams need to start doing it.

I'm hopeful Tavon Austin can be kinda like that for the Cowboys, but I'm not expecting many touches.

 

[Yenrub]

Based on what? Samuels never had more than 78 carries in a season in college. But you think he would take over as lead back in Bell's absence? I think if Bell departs, he could become a third down/red zone RB, but another RB would handle early down work, whether that is Conner or someone else.

This is laughable. HCs have a responsibility to win, period. They must use their players in a manner that maximizes their chance to win. That is what the NC State coaches did, and they determined that giving Samuels feature RB responsibilities was not their best course of action.

While this is true we don't know why. It could be that they thought as a RB he was just as good as the other guys but his pass catching ability was far superior. Samuels did lead the team in receptions each of his last 3 seasons. 

 

[Tau837]

Hines obviously a faster player than Samuels and Samuels a larger player and thus likely a better blocker than Hines. So deploying them the way they did makes sense.

This is irrelevant. Samuels was not asked to block at State. He carried the ball and ran routes. He did not block. So this is not a valid reason for assigning him to TE/hybrid/all purpose role rather than feature RB.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is irrelevant. Samuels was not asked to block at State. He carried the ball and ran routes. He did not block. So this is not a valid reason for assigning him to TE/hybrid/all purpose role rather than feature RB.

Ok. I was just speculating.

Really just started learning about the guy yesterday.

Do you think Samuels lacks vision or change of direction ability to be a feature RB?

What are his weaknesses? Why was Hines used as a RB more than him?

Or is it because of what Yenrub brings up? That Samuels was their best receiving option (better than Hines?) and so they preferred to use him mostly in this role, instead of as a runner?

 

[JPeso]

Where does everyone get said "tape?"  Is this just a euphemism for "I did a search on YouTube and watched 5 minutes of highlights?" 

Or is there some inside track on actual scouting tape that you chart? 

In Samuels case, watching almost every home game at NCSU live and in-person with non-nosebleeds + highlights on YouTube for the last few months. In Connor’s case, watching let’s say 1/4 of his games on TV + highlights on YouTube.

It’s not that I like Connor, more that I don’t believe Samuels will be a next-level RB. You are entitled to your opinion but no need for the snarkiness.  

 

[cobalt_27]

In Samuels case, watching almost every home game at NCSU live and in-person with non-nosebleeds + highlights on YouTube for the last few months. In Connor’s case, watching let’s say 1/4 of his games on TV + highlights on YouTube.

It’s not that I like Connor, more that I don’t believe Samuels will be a next-level RB. You are entitled to your opinion but no need for the snarkiness.  

I have no opinion on Connor or Samuels, it’s an interesting situation.  But, what’s more interesting is why people here use the phrase “watching tape” on a guy.   To say one watches tape on a guy connotes diligent, repeated study and charting, when in fact, what you and everyone else really mean is your analysis is formed from the nosebleeds of a giant football stadium and from YouTube highlights.

The phrase needs to be retired from this board, full stop.

 

[Football Jones]

College teams do tend to run more plays per game than they do at the pro level. More plays means more rotation of starters to keep offensive players fresh, but yeah they are going to play their best players in such ways that they believe gives them the best chance to win.

Hines obviously a faster player than Samuels and Samuels a larger player and thus likely a better blocker than Hines. So deploying them the way they did makes sense.

Reading some profile reports on Samuels Lance Zierlien says that Samuels doesn't have loose hips (although I do see him making players miss in the cut ups I posted which makes me question that somewhat) and this could be another reason for this if Hines can navigate traffic better than Samuels does.

I still like what I have seen of Samuels so far. He is an interesting player. 

There’s more to it than simply running more plays. College HCs often have to juggle PT for multiple players at the same position not only to try to win games, but often times (maybe more so), PT was promised or implied due to either recruiting or retaining players.

NC State probably had at least some of that going on. Samuels is a much better NFL feature back prospect than Hines, IMO, but we’ll likely never be privy to the exact reason(s) Samuels wasn’t a feature back in college.

I’m guessing it was a combination of Samuels’ versatility & getting other top players PT.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

While I somewhat agree with you that Connor is technically the better "RB" I think samuels has a ton more potential and with getting a year to learn that if Bell ends up leaving samuels would take over as the lead back but Connor would be involved some.

If Bell leaves, they'd likely sign or draft a better RB than both.

 

[JPeso]

I have no opinion on Connor or Samuels, it’s an interesting situation.  But, what’s more interesting is why people here use the phrase “watching tape” on a guy.   To say one watches tape on a guy connotes diligent, repeated study and charting, when in fact, what you and everyone else really mean is your analysis is formed from the nosebleeds of a giant football stadium and from YouTube highlights. The phrase needs to be retired from this board, full stop.

This comes across as though you followed an opinion you shouldn't have. As for Samuels, I am confident I have seen the guy play more than 99% of the board. Whether I should have said "watched him live" vs. "watching tape", I'm not sorry that you care so much.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Where does everyone get said "tape?"  Is this just a euphemism for "I did a search on YouTube and watched 5 minutes of highlights?" 

Or is there some inside track on actual scouting tape that you chart? 

There are sites like Draft Breakdown where they cut up the game films and you cant watch every carry/reception for the player not just highlights. And yes there are highlight videos as well on YouTube. Saying you like the "tape" is generally just an expression for however you watched the player.

 

[Tau837]

Do you think Samuels lacks vision or change of direction ability to be a feature RB?

What are his weaknesses? Why was Hines used as a RB more than him?

Or is it because of what Yenrub brings up? That Samuels was their best receiving option (better than Hines?) and so they preferred to use him mostly in this role, instead of as a runner?

I don't know where to find college football split stats, but my impression is that a high percentage of Samuels' carries were on jet sweeps, other outside runs, and operating as the wildcat QB. I don't think he ran a lot between the tackles on what would be viewed as normal running plays. Does that mean he can't do that effectively? I don't know that, I only know that the coaching staff didn't seem to use him much that way.

His NFL draft profile claims these weaknesses, among others:

• Play speed and short area quickness are average
  
• Usually gets what is blocked as a running back
  
• Tight hips prevent sharp cuts as running back or receiver
  

I am not a scout, but I can't disagree with any of those.

As for whether or not he was a better receiving option than Hines, I don't really see it that way. They are different receivers, so it's hard to compare. Samuels was more of a TE/H-back receiver, whereas Hines was a true slot WR, a position he played his first two seasons at State. When Hines played that role in his first two seasons, he averaged 12.4 ypr, which is a healthy margin above Samuels' career ypr of 9.2, which is still very good for his role. IMO that illustrates that Hines was used more like a WR than a RB/TE, running deeper routes. On the other hand, Samuels was a bigger target with good hands and a nose for the end zone, which made him a stronger red zone target. Feels like apples and oranges IMO.

 

[Tau837]

While I somewhat agree with you that Connor is technically the better "RB" I think samuels has a ton more potential and with getting a year to learn that if Bell ends up leaving samuels would take over as the lead back but Connor would be involved some.

If Bell leaves, they'd likely sign or draft a better RB than both.

 

 

[Bfrahm3]

Based on what? Samuels never had more than 78 carries in a season in college. But you think he would take over as lead back in Bell's absence? I think if Bell departs, he could become a third down/red zone RB, but another RB would handle early down work, whether that is Conner or someone else.

This is laughable. HCs have a responsibility to win, period. They must use their players in a manner that maximizes their chance to win. That is what the NC State coaches did, and they determined that giving Samuels feature RB responsibilities was not their best course of action.

I guess based on what I think. I do think your overthinking my term of lead back. I'm not saying he would be a 3 down workhorse and never come off the field. Just that I think he would get a 60% share of carries and then like you said he should be a good third down/red zone back so if that happens I'd call that a lead back. I realize he may not have had the huge workload in college but like you said above, coaches play the guys that will help them win and I believe that samuels would do that for the steelers better then Conner would. 

If Bell leaves, they'd likely sign or draft a better RB than both.

Could happen. Or samuels and/or Conner could look good enough so the steelers don't draft or sign someone else. Kinda far out to really have a good idea what's going to happen right now but I think it's crazy to just automatically think that if bell leaves they would need to sign someone else when there's just as much chance that they like one of the guys they already have.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Could happen. Or samuels and/or Conner could look good enough so the steelers don't draft or sign someone else. Kinda far out to really have a good idea what's going to happen right now but I think it's crazy to just automatically think that if bell leaves they would need to sign someone else when there's just as much chance that they like one of the guys they already have.

Seems incredibly unlikely that a team that is perennially in contention with an aging QB that relied heavily on a star RB will go into the season with Samuels/Conner at RB. I think one take is much crazier than the other, but sure anything can happen.

 

[Hankmoody]

I have no opinion on Connor or Samuels, it’s an interesting situation.  But, what’s more interesting is why people here use the phrase “watching tape” on a guy.   To say one watches tape on a guy connotes diligent, repeated study and charting, when in fact, what you and everyone else really mean is your analysis is formed from the nosebleeds of a giant football stadium and from YouTube highlights.

The phrase needs to be retired from this board, full stop.

Or you need to stop inferring what you do and just take it as it is.

 

[Bfrahm3]

Seems incredibly unlikely that a team that is perennially in contention with an aging QB that relied heavily on a star RB will go into the season with Samuels/Conner at RB. I think one take is much crazier than the other, but sure anything can happen.

If neither of them looks good then they definitely will...I believe that samuels will look good enough that they wouldn't worry to much though. I also believe they will end up signing bell but think samuels is one of the biggest lottery tickets of the backup RBs going late in rookie drafts so am happy to have him

 

[Hankmoody]

Seems incredibly unlikely that a team that is perennially in contention with an aging QB that relied heavily on a star RB will go into the season with Samuels/Conner at RB. I think one take is much crazier than the other, but sure anything can happen.

I don't think it's incredibly unlikely, WAS did it with Morris, HOU did it with Foster, BAL is rolling this year with Collins, etc.  It's going to be about comfort level and confidence in him. 

 

[JohnnyU]

James Connor is the better running back. I’m sure Samuels can carve a role but really not seeing a significant upside unless he focuses solely on TE. 

I don't see Connor as being anything special.  Samuels could very easily pass Connor.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't think it's incredibly unlikely, WAS did it with Morris, HOU did it with Foster, BAL is rolling this year with Collins, etc.  It's going to be about comfort level and confidence in him. 

Ok. I'll remove "incredibly" but I do think it's very unlikely - I guess I don't think either are great RBs which adds to it.

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't know where to find college football split stats, but my impression is that a high percentage of Samuels' carries were on jet sweeps, other outside runs, and operating as the wildcat QB. I don't think he ran a lot between the tackles on what would be viewed as normal running plays. Does that mean he can't do that effectively? I don't know that, I only know that the coaching staff didn't seem to use him much that way.

This matches my observation of the cut ups I posted in the thread. He had at least as many jet sweeps as regular runs, if not more.

You can find split information through CFBR here is Samuels page there.or just overall Wolfpack data these may not be the splits you are looking for (where did players line up) but at least it is some information that could be useful. They don't cover some of the smaller schools though.

His NFL draft profile claims these weaknesses, among others:

• Play speed and short area quickness are average
  
• Usually gets what is blocked as a running back
  
• Tight hips prevent sharp cuts as running back or receiver
  

I am not a scout, but I can't disagree with any of those.

I read this as well and I respect LZ's work. He also says this

"Routes lack purpose and route-running is raw"

I know it was only cut ups, but I saw some very nice routes run in those that makes me wonder what LZ is talking about.

Anyhow I look forward to learning more about this guy in the weeks ahead and thanks for your 2 cents on him.

 

[Soulfly3]

Took him with my final pick in our rookie draft 4.07

Was stressing about not getting him. 

 

[steelers1080]

I have no opinion on Connor or Samuels, it’s an interesting situation.  But, what’s more interesting is why people here use the phrase “watching tape” on a guy.   To say one watches tape on a guy connotes diligent, repeated study and charting, when in fact, what you and everyone else really mean is your analysis is formed from the nosebleeds of a giant football stadium and from YouTube highlights.

The phrase needs to be retired from this board, full stop.

Draft Breakdown is better than most. It shows all plays that the player is involved in, and for WRs shows a lot of routes even if they weren't the target. So, you're not just seeing the best of the best for each player, you can see every play.

I can't swear that this is any better than highlights or just reading analysis, but watching tape like this has helped me frame my drafts and I think it's helped because most of my league-mates just watch highlight reels.

 

[gabes1919]

Took him with my final pick in our rookie draft 4.07

Was stressing about not getting him. 

See, this right here is what makes Samuels a great option and someone worth monitoring.

To the naysayers, I state this: He can be gotten in the late 3rd or 4th round. Nobody here is saying he is a world beater or an underrated David Johnson in disguise. But he was an all purpose type weapon in college and there is a chance, however small, that he can fill the shoes Bell will almost inevitably leave next year. Couple that with uninspired competition for the back up role (Ridley, Conner, Toussant), a chance to get significant reps this summer with Bell gone, and an almost negligible draft cost, why wouldn’t you want him on your team if you have deep rosters. If he works out just based on opportunity, then he’s a king maker in any league you drafted him. If he doesn’t, nobody stresses over losing a nickel.

 

[massraider]

I think a more realistic hope is that he fills a Theo Riddick role long term. Which would be great.

 

[barackdhouse]

I wouldn't hold a ton of hope for him replacing Bell if Bell leaves. But as a handcuff in season, he might be the most valuable one right now. I would cerrainly think about flipping him to Bell owners. In the one league I own Bell I targeted Samuels and traded up to get him. 5.01 though. If he is truly named Bell's direct backup his value will definitely go up.

 

[gabes1919]

There’s more to it than simply running more plays. College HCs often have to juggle PT for multiple players at the same position not only to try to win games, but often times (maybe more so), PT was promised or implied due to either recruiting or retaining players.

NC State probably had at least some of that going on. Samuels is a much better NFL feature back prospect than Hines, IMO, but we’ll likely never be privy to the exact reason(s) Samuels wasn’t a feature back in college.

I’m guessing it was a combination of Samuels’ versatility & getting other top players PT.

I actually tend to agree with the concept of promised playing time. Let's be honest, prospects won't want to come to your school if they see that you don't give guys an equal shake to showcase themselves. Nobody wants to ride the pine for 2 years and then only get 1 year to showcase themselves unless they are going to the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world, places where 1 year of good production could get you drafted. Case in point, you have Matt Dayes in front of both of these players for 2 years. He was drafted in the 7th round by the Browns. Dayes never had a higher ypc on a season than Samuels and was more inefficient as a 2 year starter than Hines was in his 1 year. A player the NFL deemed inferior starting for 2 years over better options reeks of A. a patient player getting his due or B. bad coaching.

I think Hines and Samuels are similar dual threat weapons but Hines is obviously much smaller and faster than Samuels. The reason why they chose Hines appears quite obvious to me though: Samuels was simply too important as a receiver for them. In his final 3 years, Samuels led the team each year in receptions and led them in yards in 2015. I say Hines is a similar player because in 2016, both players ended up 1 and 2 in receptions on the team and 2 and 3 in yards. Maybe Hines was the better option for their offense, maybe the coach sucked. Either way, it seems they couldn't afford to keep him out of the receiving game

 

[Hankmoody]

Ok. I'll remove "incredibly" but I do think it's very unlikely - I guess I don't think either are great RBs which adds to it.

That may be, but they don't need to be great, just good enough for them to believe they can get it done.  I don't think the word "great" was ever used to describe Morris, but he worked for what they wanted.  That allowed them to spend assets in other spots they want to, and PIT has plenty of those still.  And at the cost of a 4th round rookie pick it's fine it it doesn't work out.

I don't know where to find college football split stats, but my impression is that a high percentage of Samuels' carries were on jet sweeps, other outside runs, and operating as the wildcat QB. I don't think he ran a lot between the tackles on what would be viewed as normal running plays. Does that mean he can't do that effectively? I don't know that, I only know that the coaching staff didn't seem to use him much that way.

This matches my observation of the cut ups I posted in the thread. He had at least as many jet sweeps as regular runs, if not more.

That's not causal though.  I can't tell you how often I've seen college coaches, (and NFL) that do what they do simply because that's what they do.  They run X system and that's what they know, that's their playbook, and that's what they call.  Re-writing a playbook isn't something trivial.  Some of them don't recruit guys that don't fit that and some look specifically for guys that do.  It used to drive me nuts when Ohio State would go into Tresselball when they had such dynamic playmakers, but that was their system.  Brady was benched in college for Drew Henson.  Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were massively underutilized at Alabama because of their system.  Fournette was rarely thrown to.

 

[Biabreakable]

That may be, but they don't need to be great, just good enough for them to believe they can get it done.  I don't think the word "great" was ever used to describe Morris, but he worked for what they wanted.  That allowed them to spend assets in other spots they want to, and PIT has plenty of those still.  And at the cost of a 4th round rookie pick it's fine it it doesn't work out.

That's not causal though.  I can't tell you how often I've seen college coaches, (and NFL) that do what they do simply because that's what they do.  They run X system and that's what they know, that's their playbook, and that's what they call.  Re-writing a playbook isn't something trivial.  Some of them don't recruit guys that don't fit that and some look specifically for guys that do.  It used to drive me nuts when Ohio State would go into Tresselball when they had such dynamic playmakers, but that was their system.  Brady was benched in college for Drew Henson.  Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were massively underutilized at Alabama because of their system.  Fournette was rarely thrown to.

Yeah I get that,

The comments about the jet sweeps just saying that this isn't a traditional run from behind the LOS so even fewer of those types of runs by which to evaluate him by.

The more traditional runs that I have seen, he looks good on those, its just a smaller sample size that his total rushing attempts, which as JWB points out is also not very many.

 

[nirad3]

:intrigued:

trying to jump into the 6th in my 12-teamer to grab him

 

[Tau837]

I don't know where to find college football split stats, but my impression is that a high percentage of Samuels' carries were on jet sweeps, other outside runs, and operating as the wildcat QB. I don't think he ran a lot between the tackles on what would be viewed as normal running plays. Does that mean he can't do that effectively? I don't know that, I only know that the coaching staff didn't seem to use him much that way.

This matches my observation of the cut ups I posted in the thread. He had at least as many jet sweeps as regular runs, if not more.

That's not causal though.  I can't tell you how often I've seen college coaches, (and NFL) that do what they do simply because that's what they do.  They run X system and that's what they know, that's their playbook, and that's what they call.  Re-writing a playbook isn't something trivial.  Some of them don't recruit guys that don't fit that and some look specifically for guys that do.  It used to drive me nuts when Ohio State would go into Tresselball when they had such dynamic playmakers, but that was their system.  Brady was benched in college for Drew Henson.  Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were massively underutilized at Alabama because of their system.  Fournette was rarely thrown to.

When Dayes and Hines were the feature RB under the same coaching staff and in the same offense as Samuels, they mostly ran traditional running plays, not jet sweeps, wildcat, etc. So I don't agree with the suggestion that the fact that Samuels had a high number of non-traditional plays when he carried the ball was "simply because that's what they do."

Let me put it this way. I doubt they will be putting a player in Samuels' all purpose role this year and utilizing him like Samuels. IMO that is because Samuels was an unusual talent who happened to be better at a non-traditional role with plenty of non-traditional plays than Dayes and Hines, so utilizing him that way both maximized the talent on the field and kept defenses off balance. But that non-traditional role does not exist in the NFL.

So everyone banking on him to succeed is likely banking on him doing something successfully in the NFL that he did not show in 4 years of college. I assume that happens occasionally, but I can't think of any comparable examples off the top of my head.

 

[Football Jones]

When Dayes and Hines were the feature RB under the same coaching staff and in the same offense as Samuels, they mostly ran traditional running plays, not jet sweeps, wildcat, etc. So I don't agree with the suggestion that the fact that Samuels had a high number of non-traditional plays when he carried the ball was "simply because that's what they do."

Let me put it this way. I doubt they will be putting a player in Samuels' all purpose role this year and utilizing him like Samuels. IMO that is because Samuels was an unusual talent who happened to be better at a non-traditional role with plenty of non-traditional plays than Dayes and Hines, so utilizing him that way both maximized the talent on the field and kept defenses off balance. But that non-traditional role does not exist in the NFL.

So everyone banking on him to succeed is likely banking on him doing something successfully in the NFL that he did not show in 4 years of college. I assume that happens occasionally, but I can't think of any comparable examples off the top of my head.

To be fair, there's been a lot of successful players who switched positions in the pros. Even more of a transition that what Samuels will be going through.

Besides, he looked really good as a RB. The NFL is all about projecting & I think the Steelers nailed his position. Samuels' best position in the NFL will be RB & it's not close, IMO.

 

[Tau837]

Besides, he looked really good as a RB. The NFL is all about projecting & I think the Steelers nailed his position. Samuels' best position in the NFL will be RB & it's not close, IMO.

I agree with this. But being his best position does not equate to a significant NFL role, at least for fantasy purposes.

 

[Nero]

When I watch the tape, I see a receiver.  Just like his prototype Ty Montgomery, I think he'd flop as a lead back.  I think he'd flourish as a pass catching back though.  I've drafted him a couple of times, but I recognize he'll be pretty useless if Leveon stays.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That may be, but they don't need to be great, just good enough for them to believe they can get it done.  I don't think the word "great" was ever used to describe Morris, but he worked for what they wanted.  That allowed them to spend assets in other spots they want to, and PIT has plenty of those still.  And at the cost of a 4th round rookie pick it's fine it it doesn't work out.

That's not causal though.  I can't tell you how often I've seen college coaches, (and NFL) that do what they do simply because that's what they do.  They run X system and that's what they know, that's their playbook, and that's what they call.  Re-writing a playbook isn't something trivial.  Some of them don't recruit guys that don't fit that and some look specifically for guys that do.  It used to drive me nuts when Ohio State would go into Tresselball when they had such dynamic playmakers, but that was their system.  Brady was benched in college for Drew Henson.  Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley were massively underutilized at Alabama because of their system.  Fournette was rarely thrown to.

I wouldn’t tell anyone that they shouldn’t “waste” a 4th round rookie pick on Samuels. Those picks are mostly fliers anyway and of course there’s a chance he becomes the Steelers future lead back or maybe he has some fantasy value as a jack of all trades type. I was merely responding to some one that thought that he would be the starting back next year. That seems unlikely. So if you want to tell me it’s possible again, that’s cool. It is possible.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

For whatever reason, maybe its the injuries, many career carries, the weed history, his attitude, his contract demands, their philosophy about paying RBs, franchise tags, or for whatever reason, the Steelers front office and LeVeon Bell sure don't seem to be on the same page about his future in Pittsburgh. I would estimate the odds to be maybe 50/50 that they sign Bell long-term and ultimately Bell leaves Pittsburgh. So there is a possible RB opportunity in 2019 and beyond.

Assume Samuels' backers get lucky and Bell leaves in 2019, Samuels' primary competition is James Conner and possibly some future highly drafted RB in 2019. By then, it will either be Samuels or Conner leading the way.

In 2017, James Conner had 32 total carries (7.3% of team carries) for 144 yards and 0 TDs and 0 catches in very limited action. 14.4 fantasy points on the entire season and then he suffered a season-ending MCL injury. No matter how you slice it, that is pretty poor production and a single target in the passing game. Earning 7% of team carries, even with Bell as a starter, doesn't seem like the Steeler's organization feels that Conner is destined to carry the Pitt lead RB job. Or even be the backup honestly. 

Samuels has significant positives. He has prototypical RB size at 5'11" 225. Ran a 4.54 40 at the combine. A 4.93 three-cone drill at that size is very good to excellent. (Bell was elite at 6.75). His production in college was impressive. Career average of 6.1 per carry on limited carries in a power 5 conference compares to guys like RoJo and Chubb. Samuels has scored a touchdown on 12.2% of his career touches...an incredible stat. (Barkley at 6.5%, RoJo 6.7%). He obviously is a very talented receiver, averaging 65 catches per season his last 3 years with 18 TDs on 195 catches. Julio Jones would be jealous of that TD production.

Pittsburgh immediately listed Samuels at RB after they drafted him. They moved him all over the place at minicamp. The RB coach loves him and the team had to address other positions before RB due to the Bryant trade and defensive needs.

The Steelers have a luxury, assuming Bell signs the tag and they do not intend to sign him long-term. They can get Bell for a year while using Samuels as the backup to see if he can become the guy. Conner had all of last year to show something and he failed. If Samuels fails, Bell walks and they spend early round draft capital on a running back. But if Samuels, a player with similar size, speed, agility, nose-for-end-zone and receiving skills to LeVeon Bell, can become 80% of what LeVeon has been for 20% of the price, then they can comfortably lose Bell, start Samuels and look to other positions in the 2019 draft. And dynasty owners that had the foresight to spend a 4th round rookie pick on Samuels can yield the reward. 

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Yeah I get that,

The comments about the jet sweeps just saying that this isn't a traditional run from behind the LOS so even fewer of those types of runs by which to evaluate him by.

The more traditional runs that I have seen, he looks good on those, its just a smaller sample size that his total rushing attempts, which as JWB points out is also not very many.

I've seen a lot of guys that play primarily on passing downs get high YPC because half the time they end up getting a rushing attempt it is a draw play for 7 yards on 3rd and 12 with the defense playing back.  You put them on early downs and all of a sudden things aren't as wide open.  Not certain of the breakdowns of the carries in this case but I'd certainly be hesitant to expect that they are expecting him to be a 3 down back when he has absolute no track record of doing so.  He'd be a lot more valuable if he was a TE getting some work at RB than he is going to be as a RB getting a few touches a game.  The fact of the matter is that there are a lot of RB's with more experience carrying the rock, he's worth a flyer but if you think you're getting a future bell cow you are probably going to be disappointed.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Did he handle short yardage duty at NCST?

 

[EBF]

Good athlete, but I don't think he's a good enough runner to be a starting RB in the NFL. If he can't block then he can't play TE full-time and he's too big to be a WR. I like his talent, but he'll be reliant on a creative OC to get the most out of him because he doesn't have a real position. If it were me I'd try to use him like Hernandez or Reed. He's not as shifty in space, but he's a comparable athlete.

 

[Football Jones]

I see a RB when scouting Samuels, albeit one with elite receiving skills. He's not a typical anything except RB, IMO. Perfect frame for it & his raw physical traits line up well with what we know works at the NFL level.

That said, I'm not pounding the table for Samuels like with Forte, CJ, & DJ, but I feel confident he could've been a quality feature back in college in a power 5 conference. While Samuels isn't a sure thing, my point is at his current ADP, he's an extraordinary value.

Maybe Samuels' ADP rises substantially towards the start of the season, but right now he's one of the better bargains I can remember. You can typically get him in the "throwaway" rounds.

 

[gabes1919]

Did he handle short yardage duty at NCST?

12 TDs on 78 carries last year and 6 TDs on 33 carries the year before says he at least handled a lot of the goal line stuff. He averaged 1 TD/8 touches in his college career with almost an even split on carries and receptions. That's silly

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

12 TDs on 78 carries last year and 6 TDs on 33 carries the year before says he at least handled a lot of the goal line stuff. He averaged 1 TD/8 touches in his college career with almost an even split on carries and receptions. That's silly

Yeah.  That's why I asked.  Short yardage + wide runs + receiving skills and I'm supposed to believe he can't handle the simple stuff despite excellent size and average NFL RB athleticism?  Seems lazy and I'm not buying.

 

[Biabreakable]

I've seen a lot of guys that play primarily on passing downs get high YPC because half the time they end up getting a rushing attempt it is a draw play for 7 yards on 3rd and 12 with the defense playing back.  You put them on early downs and all of a sudden things aren't as wide open.  Not certain of the breakdowns of the carries in this case but I'd certainly be hesitant to expect that they are expecting him to be a 3 down back when he has absolute no track record of doing so.  He'd be a lot more valuable if he was a TE getting some work at RB than he is going to be as a RB getting a few touches a game.  The fact of the matter is that there are a lot of RB's with more experience carrying the rock, he's worth a flyer but if you think you're getting a future bell cow you are probably going to be disappointed.

Oh absolutely. The down and distance is very relevant to a players ypc as is volume. If the player doesn't get the ball much all it takes is one big play to really pad a stat like that.

This is kind of why I like success rate which takes these factors into consideration. a 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 is still moving the chains even though it brings the players ypc down.

I don't have a opinion about how the Steelers envision Samuels in their offense yet. I am still learning about the guy.

 

[Tau837]

12 TDs on 78 carries last year and 6 TDs on 33 carries the year before says he at least handled a lot of the goal line stuff. He averaged 1 TD/8 touches in his college career with almost an even split on carries and receptions. That's silly

Yeah.  That's why I asked.  Short yardage + wide runs + receiving skills and I'm supposed to believe he can't handle the simple stuff despite excellent size and average NFL RB athleticism?  Seems lazy and I'm not buying.

For some reason, ESPN doesn't have split stats for 2017, but they do for 2016.

• He had 2 carries with 1 or 2 yards to go, for -1 yard and 0 TDs.
  
• He had 7 carries with less than 6 yards to go for 25 yards and 4 TDs. So, combining with the previous point, he had 5/26/4 with 3-5 yards to go.
  
• He had 9 carries inside the opponent's 10 yard line for 31 yards and 5 TDs. I assume this wholly overlaps with the 5/26/4 from the previous point.
  

None of that shows that he had a significant role in short yardage, but he did have a big role near the goal line. It should also be noted that he was used as a wildcat QB near the goal line quite a bit, which once again makes some of those carries non-traditional.

Regarding the bolded, if your read of this thread is that all of the comments that have recommended tempering expectations are lazy, I think you are the one being lazy.  

 

[Football Jones]

For whatever reason, maybe its the injuries, many career carries, the weed history, his attitude, his contract demands, their philosophy about paying RBs, franchise tags, or for whatever reason, the Steelers front office and LeVeon Bell sure don't seem to be on the same page about his future in Pittsburgh. I would estimate the odds to be maybe 50/50 that they sign Bell long-term and ultimately Bell leaves Pittsburgh. So there is a possible RB opportunity in 2019 and beyond.

Assume Samuels' backers get lucky and Bell leaves in 2019, Samuels' primary competition is James Conner and possibly some future highly drafted RB in 2019. By then, it will either be Samuels or Conner leading the way.

In 2017, James Conner had 32 total carries (7.3% of team carries) for 144 yards and 0 TDs and 0 catches in very limited action. 14.4 fantasy points on the entire season and then he suffered a season-ending MCL injury. No matter how you slice it, that is pretty poor production and a single target in the passing game. Earning 7% of team carries, even with Bell as a starter, doesn't seem like the Steeler's organization feels that Conner is destined to carry the Pitt lead RB job. Or even be the backup honestly. 

Samuels has significant positives. He has prototypical RB size at 5'11" 225. Ran a 4.54 40 at the combine. A 4.93 three-cone drill at that size is very good to excellent. (Bell was elite at 6.75). His production in college was impressive. Career average of 6.1 per carry on limited carries in a power 5 conference compares to guys like RoJo and Chubb. Samuels has scored a touchdown on 12.2% of his career touches...an incredible stat. (Barkley at 6.5%, RoJo 6.7%). He obviously is a very talented receiver, averaging 65 catches per season his last 3 years with 18 TDs on 195 catches. Julio Jones would be jealous of that TD production.

Pittsburgh immediately listed Samuels at RB after they drafted him. They moved him all over the place at minicamp. The RB coach loves him and the team had to address other positions before RB due to the Bryant trade and defensive needs.

The Steelers have a luxury, assuming Bell signs the tag and they do not intend to sign him long-term. They can get Bell for a year while using Samuels as the backup to see if he can become the guy. Conner had all of last year to show something and he failed. If Samuels fails, Bell walks and they spend early round draft capital on a running back. But if Samuels, a player with similar size, speed, agility, nose-for-end-zone and receiving skills to LeVeon Bell, can become 80% of what LeVeon has been for 20% of the price, then they can comfortably lose Bell, start Samuels and look to other positions in the 2019 draft. And dynasty owners that had the foresight to spend a 4th round rookie pick on Samuels can yield the reward. 

Yeah, the Steelers made it quite clear Samuels is considered a RB. The alternative would've been saying something like, "we'll see where he fits in". I wanted to hear them say "RB" & they did. It made his stock go up, IMO.

I expect Samuels to be their main backup in short order, but certainly by the end of the season. Samuels will get more PT than Connor simply because of vastly superior versatility, but I'm confident he'll also beat out Connor at some point in 2018 for top backup duties. 

 

[gabes1919]

Regarding the bolded, if your read of this thread is that all of the comments that have recommended tempering expectations are lazy, I think you are the one being lazy.  

On this point, I would like to think that all this excitement over Samuels is more than anything about the possibilty of getting a guy in the 4th with a real shot to be something. I would hope that the 4th round price tag alone would be enough to give anyone drafting him the perspective that this guy is nothing more than a gamble. Players in that range of the draft are like parlay bets in Vegas, so much needs to happen for the bet to pay out that it's ridiculous to expect it. In this case though, more than a few of the pieces look to be lining up to at least give us a chance of making it big. I'm enthusiatic about his opportunity and his talent but realistically, I know he could be dropped this time next season. The excitement level cannot be allowed to become Joe Williams of yesteryear please...

 

[Leroy's Aces]

On this point, I would like to think that all this excitement over Samuels is more than anything about the possibilty of getting a guy in the 4th with a real shot to be something. I would hope that the 4th round price tag alone would be enough to give anyone drafting him the perspective that this guy is nothing more than a gamble. Players in that range of the draft are like parlay bets in Vegas, so much needs to happen for the bet to pay out that it's ridiculous to expect it. In this case though, more than a few of the pieces look to be lining up to at least give us a chance of making it big. I'm enthusiatic about his opportunity and his talent but realistically, I know he could be dropped this time next season. The excitement level cannot be allowed to become Joe Williams of yesteryear please...

Good points made. For me, it is about basic probability. I don't think any Samuels' supporters "expect it". Ronald Jones has maybe a 60% chance to be successful, and we are talking about a rookie pick between 37 and 48. Kind of letting betting on a horse paying 10-1 that you feel is more like 4-1 in reality. 

My point is that Samuels:

- cost to roster = cheap.

- chance to hit = low, but far superior to an average 4th round rookie dynasty RB pick.

- upside if he hits = massive.

All that has to happen:

1. Bell does not sign long-term deal and leaves.

2. Samuels earns the backup job and does well.

3. Pitt does not draft nor sign a top-end RB in 2019.

That isn't an easy path, but since Bell is a PITA, Conner is meh/Samuels is talented, and Pitt front office is smart/frugal, it isn't so hard to see through my rose-colored glasses.  

 

[Football Jones]

Good athlete, but I don't think he's a good enough runner to be a starting RB in the NFL. If he can't block then he can't play TE full-time and he's too big to be a WR. I like his talent, but he'll be reliant on a creative OC to get the most out of him because he doesn't have a real position. If it were me I'd try to use him like Hernandez or Reed. He's not as shifty in space, but he's a comparable athlete.

With the right skill set, TEs don't need to be good blockers. Guys like Reed are essentially big WRs. Reed can't block his way out of a wet paper bag. Gesicki can't block a lick & Mark Andrews, drafted on day-2, is a notorious poor blocker.

I think what's keeping Samuels from being considered as a legit TE is height/weight. It helps to have some size at TE, both for blocking & as a target over the middle. However, his size is ideal for a RB.

I'm convinced Samuels has the athleticism to be a starting caliber NFL RB. The one & only question I have is vision at the next level, but I see nothing that indicates he doesn't have it.