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Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Jermichael Finley Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Despite the fact that we (fbg message boarders) have already put him in the Hall of Fame, he has yet to even hit 700 yards or 6 TDs in a season. Im going to assume he stays relatively healthy this year and finally has a season we have been hoping for.

102 targets

77 receptions

76%

1025 yards

13.3 ypc

9 TDs

 
He is one of the favorite targets for one of the best fantasy and real life quarterbacks in the game. Taking Jermichael Finley in this year's draft is a bit of a risk coming off last year's injury however and I suspect he will get off to a slower start but finish the season strong. He's just too good of a player to not put up quality numbers on such a prolific offense when Finley is healthy. There's a bit of Buyer's Beware attached to Finley this season but if there wasn't, he'd most likely be the No.2 TE drafted behind Gates.

67 catches, 850 yards and 7 Td's

 
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Green Bay learned a lesson last year when the lost Finley. One of the coaches (can't remember if it was McCarthy, or another coach) said that they basically designed their offense around him during the 2010 offseason, and clearly they were in disarray for a game or two when he went down-- before they remembered that Jennings was still on the team.

On top of that, Green Bay is concerned they won't be able to afford to keep him next year and couple that with his rather immature Twitter distractions during the playoffs-- I think you're going to see much less Finley than you did the first 5 weeks of 2010.

 
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Green Bay learned a lesson last year when the lost Finley. One of the coaches (can't remember if it was McCarthy, or another coach) said that they basically designed their offense around him during the 2010 offseason, and clearly they were in disarray for a game or two when he went down-- before they remembered that Jennings was still on the team.On top of that, Green Bay is concerned they won't be able to afford to keep him next year and couple that with his rather immature Twitter distractions during the playoffs-- I think you're going to see much less Finley than you did the first 5 weeks of 2010.
Well considering they are the champs I would say they should make him the focus again, whats the worse that can happen he goes down and you still win a super bowl!!!!82 rec 1150 yds 11 TD = #1 Fantasy TE in 2011
 
Green Bay learned a lesson last year when the lost Finley. One of the coaches (can't remember if it was McCarthy, or another coach) said that they basically designed their offense around him during the 2010 offseason, and clearly they were in disarray for a game or two when he went down-- before they remembered that Jennings was still on the team.On top of that, Green Bay is concerned they won't be able to afford to keep him next year and couple that with his rather immature Twitter distractions during the playoffs-- I think you're going to see much less Finley than you did the first 5 weeks of 2010.
Well considering they are the champs I would say they should make him the focus again, whats the worse that can happen he goes down and you still win a super bowl!!!!82 rec 1150 yds 11 TD = #1 Fantasy TE in 2011
I think the worst that can happen is he stays healthy and they dont win the SB. I don't think things are going to be too different either way. There are plenty of balls to go around and Finley/Jennings will see the bulk of that action.
 
245 receptions, 4000 yards, 28 TD's.....oops, thought this was last year's thread.

Healthy, he's a top 5 lock with potential to challenge a healthy Gates for #1 overall TE.

I don't think he stays healthy.

60 receptions

800 yards

8 TD

 
Surprisingly, Finley blocked on 42% of his total snaps last year (7th most in the NFL at TE). I would expect that to go down and Finley be used even more as a 3rd/4th WR in the formations (he did it quite a bit already lining up outside the numbers), but I see the GB offense designed differently to keep him out of harm's way a little more. His value is against LBs and DBs - not runblocking a DE.

I see 100 TGTs (right around his pace in 2010 the first few weeks), 70 REC, 14.5 YPC, 1015 YDs, 9 TDs in 2011.

 
Question - if Finley actually produces a season like some of the hypers suggest (10+ TDs, 90+ catches, 1100+ Yds, something like that), what would his value (redraft/dynasty) actually be? He would be a young, dynamic TE that actually stayed healthy and performed at an elite level on an elite offense with an elite QB. 2nd round in PPR? 3rd round?

 
'drater said:
245 receptions, 4000 yards, 28 TD's.....oops, thought this was last year's thread.Healthy, he's a top 5 lock with potential to challenge a healthy Gates for #1 overall TE.I don't think he stays healthy.60 receptions800 yards8 TD
Owen Daniels was on pace for a 1000+ yard season before he tore his ACL, coming back from the ACL tear he suffered a few different injuries because he was not 100% recovered from the ACL tear. I could see the same thing happening to Finley.
 
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'drater said:
245 receptions, 4000 yards, 28 TD's.....oops, thought this was last year's thread.Healthy, he's a top 5 lock with potential to challenge a healthy Gates for #1 overall TE.I don't think he stays healthy.60 receptions800 yards8 TD
Owen Daniels was on pace for a 1000+ yard season before he tore his ACL, coming back from the ACL tear he suffered a few different injuries because he was not 100% recovered from the ACL tear. I could see the same thing happening to Finley.
As much as I love JFin, I worry about this also.Clearly he has the potential for being the number one TE FF wise. Clearly he is at the point of having to prove he can do it for 16 games. However I am going to project a full year. 70 rcpt, 900 yards, 6 TD. Great play in a 1.5 ppr league, good in a 1 ppr league, good in a TD league. I think the Pack learned to win without JFin, so the game plan will not be rolled around him like the begining of last year. Also, I think Grant will be collecting some of those red zone TD's so I am not comfortable predicting a 10 TD year, especially considering the other resources Rodgers has. He will finish as a top TE. I hope I am wrong and its 80 rcpt, 1,200 yards and 11 TD.
 
If he stays healthy and they design their offense like they did early last year, he's a near-lock for 1,100 yards and 7 TDs (more likely 1,200 and 9).

 
If he stays healthy and they design their offense like they did early last year, he's a near-lock for 1,100 yards and 7 TDs (more likely 1,200 and 9).
I doubt they design their offense like they did last year when he was healthy...considering the offense looked better at times without him and when Jennings was more involved.As has been pointed out in that thread...Jennings has continued to produce in this offense with 2 different QBs...and no matter who else is on the field, some call that a bust early in the season...I laugh to an extent. Finley was seen as the guy that would take away TDs from Jennings...redzone target right? Yet, how in those games where Finley was healthy did Jennings have 3 TDs to Finley's 1?4 games.Finley had 2 monster receiving games (4-103 against Buffalo and 9-115 against Chicago) and 2 so-so games (4-47 against Philly and 4-36-1 against Detroit)Jennings had a very good opening game (5-82-1) and 3 poor games (2 of which were made better by TDs (3-36, 2-18-1, 2-25-1)Also, people like to focus just on those 4 games.How about the AZ playoff game when Finley was a beast? Jennings delivered 8-130-1 in that game.I just don't think McCarthy is dumb enough to try and not get Jennings involved as much, if not more than Finley this season.
 
I was curious to know exactly what happened to Finley with his injury. From the Lacrosse Tribune.

_____________________________________________________________________

Finley said he injured a hamstring tendon during the Packers' 16-13 overtime loss to the Washington Redskins Sunday at FedExField, but McCarthy said Monday it was a knee injury. A time frame for how long Finley will be out will be determined after the surgery.

_____________________________________________________________________

Finley's post game quote:

_____________________________________________________________________

"Donald (Lee) had fumbled, and I was going after that tackle," Finley said, recalling the second play of the game. "When I was going (after it), I was thinking, 'Should I really tackle that guy?' There's something crazy about that episode. In the back of my mind, I was like, 'I shouldn't do this.'

"I went out there and the back of my leg popped."

_____________________________________________________________________

I found multiple reports that state Finley had a "displaced hamstring ligament". The injury at that location seems to be medically labeled a "distal tendon avulsion". This means the ligament completely tears away from the bone behind the knee, detaching one of your hamstring muscles and having it roll up towards your hip. Immediately after the pop, the shrunken hamstring will try to scar down onto the other muscles as part of our bodies natural healing process. Finley's surgery was on Tuesday, two days after he injured it. The urgency of the surgery now makes sense because immediately after the hamstring is "displaced" the greater the amount of scar tissue will build up. Time is of the essence to re-connect the tendon.

It seems that the Packers publicly downplayed the injury. McCarthy is on record as saying Finley will undergo, "arthroscopic knee surgery". Give this a read if you want to know more about the injury. IMO, this injury is worse than an ACL. I am taking a wait and see approach with Finley in 2011.

 
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Green Bay learned a lesson last year when the lost Finley. One of the coaches (can't remember if it was McCarthy, or another coach) said that they basically designed their offense around him during the 2010 offseason, and clearly they were in disarray for a game or two when he went down-- before they remembered that Jennings was still on the team.

On top of that, Green Bay is concerned they won't be able to afford to keep him next year and couple that with his rather immature Twitter distractions during the playoffs-- I think you're going to see much less Finley than you did the first 5 weeks of 2010.
As true as the statement is coming from the coach, the other side of the coin is still true (and is more important): when Finley IS on the field, it will be VERY difficult to NOT run much of the offense through him. that statement from a coach seems to be "explaining WHY" they struggled a bit after he went down but not sounding a message that things will be different in the future. Its similar to if the Colts lost Manning or the Vikings lost Peterson...those offenses that are designed around those guys and they suffer in their absense. But what is more important to remember is...those offenses are designed around those players FOR VERY GOOD REASONS.

Side note: For those trying to justify Jennings NOT regressing when Finley returns are grasping fro straws. Great talent will get attention, especially from a QB like Rodgers. That's not saying Jennings can't still be really productive; just that he can't continue to receive the lion share when Finley (and Grant), and even a healthy Driver return. Jennings numbers WILL drop when all those guys return healthy. For those saying that Jennings had more TDs in the games Finley played, etc., remember...the other side of the coin is also true. Those TD catches were the only thing that kept Jennings from being death to his teams that first month+ of the season. Everyone else was getting the catches that were moving the chains. Jennings only averaged 2.8 catches a game fro the first 5 weeks of the season, largely due to the fact that it was Finley and Driver, et al, that were moving the chains up and down the field. Jennings big FF numbers came after Grant, Finley, Driver were all gone and he became more of a "Roddy White" type importance for his team.

With everyone healthy, the team will spread it around more and THAT is what makes Finley so valuable: because he IS the mismatch that is easiest to go to and he possesses the ability to take a 8 yard catch all the way down the field, so 4-7 catches for a TE is sweet in a ppr, even if its low yardage. But he always seems to break that one big play every game. Even If I was playing conservatively, I would have NO problem taking Finley after gates, Clark, Vernon Davis...even before Witten and some fo the great players from last year.

 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
over valued and wont be any of my teams due to the hype and ADPbut IF (big IF) he stays healthy all year, top3 TE numbers will be obtained.
"BUMP FINLEY", Can't believe no one said that yet in here that I know of. lolThat is a big "IF", and I agree, he will be over priced.70/1000/10, He is a beast, but hope he can not get hurt for once.
 
The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.

 
The Jennings vs. Finley comparisons are absurd, IMHO. When Finley was in the lineup, Jennings rough start had nothing to do with a lack of targets (they were both targeted 26 times), it had to do with Jennings only catching 12 of those 26 targets. Finley and Jennings will be the focal points of a prolific passing attack, as long as Finley is healthy. While I don't think Finley will sniff 1,000 yards, he and Jennings could both do so with relative ease, as I expect Jones to be gone in free agency and Driver to be limited to a part-time role going forward.
Not sure what Drivers contract looks like, but if Cobb is decent, then I could see this as Drivers last year.
 
Not since Tony Gonzalez appeared on the scene have I seen a tight end with hands this sure. In fact, during Sunday's 7-on-7 drill, Finley did the improbable and caught two passes at once -- one with each hand. I'm serious. He circled to the right flat for a sideline pass when, suddenly, a second ball appeared on his radar. Apparently, quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell got their signals crossed, and both aimed at Finley at the same time. No problem. He simply stabbed one pass with his right hand, one with the left, then continued downfield as if nothing extraordinary occurred. The play went largely unnoticed by fans, but those who saw it looked at each other as if to say, "Naaaaahhhh I didn't just see that ... did I?"
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/15384478/if-healthy-supertalented-te-finley-can-be-best-in-nfl/rssWow.
 
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Not since Tony Gonzalez appeared on the scene have I seen a tight end with hands this sure. In fact, during Sunday's 7-on-7 drill, Finley did the improbable and caught two passes at once -- one with each hand.

I'm serious.

He circled to the right flat for a sideline pass when, suddenly, a second ball appeared on his radar. Apparently, quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell got their signals crossed, and both aimed at Finley at the same time.

No problem. He simply stabbed one pass with his right hand, one with the left, then continued downfield as if nothing extraordinary occurred. The play went largely unnoticed by fans, but those who saw it looked at each other as if to say, "Naaaaahhhh I didn't just see that ... did I?"
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/15384478/if-healthy-supertalented-te-finley-can-be-best-in-nfl/rssWow.
Ya'll suckas late to the party. I told you last year. Anyway, here's the video: http://www.packers.com/media-center/videos/Finleys-double-catch/5f4b16c5-6a70-4e41-97ba-116a46b02821

 
'Hjelle9 said:
'zamboni said:
Not since Tony Gonzalez appeared on the scene have I seen a tight end with hands this sure. In fact, during Sunday's 7-on-7 drill, Finley did the improbable and caught two passes at once -- one with each hand.

I'm serious.

He circled to the right flat for a sideline pass when, suddenly, a second ball appeared on his radar. Apparently, quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell got their signals crossed, and both aimed at Finley at the same time.

No problem. He simply stabbed one pass with his right hand, one with the left, then continued downfield as if nothing extraordinary occurred. The play went largely unnoticed by fans, but those who saw it looked at each other as if to say, "Naaaaahhhh I didn't just see that ... did I?"
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/15384478/if-healthy-supertalented-te-finley-can-be-best-in-nfl/rssWow.
Ya'll suckas late to the party. I told you last year. Anyway, here's the video: http://www.packers.com/media-center/videos/Finleys-double-catch/5f4b16c5-6a70-4e41-97ba-116a46b02821
I don't think anyone is late to the party - last preseason, everyone knew what he could do. All comes down to him staying healthy.
 
For Finley, he lasted 4 games last season. But the most amazing stat he compiled in those 4 games was that he had 7 receptions of 20+ yards. To compare, Mike Wallace led the NFL in 20+ yard receptions with 26, and only 5 players had more than 20 (Greg Jennings was one of them with 21). Vernon Davis, a fairly explosive player himself (without a legit QB) led TE's with 16 although Gates had 15 in 10 games.

Finley appears very capable of hitting 1200/10. While he had a slow start from a TD perspective last season (only 1 in 4 games), we know that TD production can come in spurts. So IMO, I'm buying the hype. When Finley was out on the field, he was the dominant force along with Gates at the TE position. Now, there appears to be some concern about Finley's knee, but if you are looking at both TE's...I would be more concerned with Gates. He also had a season ending injury and at the moment he is still dealing with after effects of it. Certainly it could be precautionary, but from all accounts, it appears Finley is at 100%. Gates...? Seems like that foot issue could crop up at any time.

Some might lump in Clark & Witten with this group. But he seems to have settled into more of a safety valve role and has only exceeded 1000 yards receiving once in his career (through 6 games, he was NBOT on pace to do this in 2010). As for Witten, he squeaked by 1000 (1002) yards last year, and while his TD production was up, LHUCKS does point out that a signifcant amount of those came with Kitna at the helm. He's never had more than 7 with Romo.

For me, I just don't see Finley as much of a risk. He got injured. The official diagnosis was torn right lateral meniscus complicated by a staph infection which had a significant role in slowing down his rehab, BUT is not a long term issue.

The biggest concern might be how can the Packers offense allow for both Jennings and Finley to be top tier performers? In the last 8 games of 2009, if you include the playoff game with Arizona, Jennings & Finley's stat lines looked like this...

Jennings: 38 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 3 TD's

Finley: 44 receptions, 575 receiving yards, 4 TD's

...or a combined averaged of 10.25 receptions, 159.375 yards & .875 TD's per game. I do think there is enough production to go around and with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, I think the sky is the limit for this offense. Rodgers should be in the 5000 yard conversation. If Philip Rivers can throw for 4700 yards, Rodgers can certainly produce 2 1200 yard receivers.

Prediction: 87 Receptions; 1235 Receiving Yards, 10 TD's.

 
Finley really doesn't have much more risk than the other top TEs:

Gates -- Still dealing with the nagging foot injury

Clark -- Injured last year; Colts receivers all healthy so maybe less balls to go around

Davis -- Still has Alex Smith throwing him the ball. Ugh.

Witten -- Consistent (at least in PPR) but not overly exciting; limited upside

And Finley's upside is likely higher than most of these (except Gates perhaps). At this point I am probably targeting Davis or Finley. Failing those, I will settle with Owen Daniels.

 
While I don't doubt Finley's ability, the risk involved with takig him at his current ADP is too rich for my blood.

The question that I will ask all of the supporters in this thread...

What are your expectation for Jimmy Graham, and if they aren't as high, why?

Both TEs have a very small sample size, albeit good stats, to pull from. Both have elite QBs and play for high powered offenses. They also both seem to be very athletic similar body style. Yet Graham can be had multiple round later in drafts, which to me seems like the value play.

 
While I don't doubt Finley's ability, the risk involved with takig him at his current ADP is too rich for my blood.The question that I will ask all of the supporters in this thread... What are your expectation for Jimmy Graham, and if they aren't as high, why?Both TEs have a very small sample size, albeit good stats, to pull from. Both have elite QBs and play for high powered offenses. They also both seem to be very athletic similar body style. Yet Graham can be had multiple round later in drafts, which to me seems like the value play.
Agree. One big issue though is what appears GBs gameplan focusing around Finley where Graham right now seems at least option three. I havent seen enough of Graham though, I know hes physically dominant in the short yardage game, how does he equate to Finley in the longball area?
 
While I don't doubt Finley's ability, the risk involved with takig him at his current ADP is too rich for my blood.The question that I will ask all of the supporters in this thread... What are your expectation for Jimmy Graham, and if they aren't as high, why?Both TEs have a very small sample size, albeit good stats, to pull from. Both have elite QBs and play for high powered offenses. They also both seem to be very athletic similar body style. Yet Graham can be had multiple round later in drafts, which to me seems like the value play.
3 reasons:1. Graham's sample size of the final 8 games of the season gives him a 616/10 projection. Not bad, but it does not show a passing offense built around his talents. Simply his ability to be a target in the red zone.2. Drew Brees MO on spreading the ball around to all of his targets. 9 players had 29 or more receptions for the Saints last year. The year before that, 7 had more than 39. Despite the fact that Brees has averaged 4692 passing yards/season the last 3 seasons, the Saints have produced but 2 1000 receiving seasons (both by Colston and the highest was 1074).3. Eye test - I've actually seen Finley take over games. Haven't seen that with Graham yet. My exposure may be limited, but Graham has really yet to show that he can dominate so we don't necessarily know if he will. Finley already has.
 
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'zamboni said:
Not since Tony Gonzalez appeared on the scene have I seen a tight end with hands this sure. In fact, during Sunday's 7-on-7 drill, Finley did the improbable and caught two passes at once -- one with each hand.

I'm serious.

He circled to the right flat for a sideline pass when, suddenly, a second ball appeared on his radar. Apparently, quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell got their signals crossed, and both aimed at Finley at the same time.

No problem. He simply stabbed one pass with his right hand, one with the left, then continued downfield as if nothing extraordinary occurred. The play went largely unnoticed by fans, but those who saw it looked at each other as if to say, "Naaaaahhhh I didn't just see that ... did I?"
http://www.cbssports...best-in-nfl/rssWow.
I like Finley but this write-up is a bit over the top. The writer made it sound like he caught two balls at the same time, one in each hand. He caught the first ball with both hands and was able to stick his left hand out to bat at the second ball, tipping it in the air, then caught it with one hand. Nice play but not god-like.
 
While I don't doubt Finley's ability, the risk involved with takig him at his current ADP is too rich for my blood.

The question that I will ask all of the supporters in this thread...

What are your expectation for Jimmy Graham, and if they aren't as high, why?

Both TEs have a very small sample size, albeit good stats, to pull from. Both have elite QBs and play for high powered offenses. They also both seem to be very athletic similar body style. Yet Graham can be had multiple round later in drafts, which to me seems like the value play.
3 reasons:1. Graham's sample size of the final 8 games of the season gives him a 616/10 projection. Not bad, but it does not show a passing offense built around his talents. Simply his ability to be a target in the red zone.

2. Drew Brees MO on spreading the ball around to all of his targets. 9 players had 29 or more receptions for the Saints last year. The year before that, 7 had more than 39. Despite the fact that Brees has averaged 4692 passing yards/season the last 3 seasons, the Saints have produced but 2 1000 receiving seasons (both by Colston and the highest was 1074).

3. Eye test - I've actually seen Finley take over games. Haven't seen that with Graham yet. My exposure may be limited, but Graham has really yet to show that he can dominate so we don't necessarily know if he will. Finley already has.
Just to clarify with everyone stating about how Graham has only played in 8 games...

Finley's Career Stats:

Career Statistics

YR TM G TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK

2008 GB 14 12 6 74 12.3 1 13 56

2009 GB 13 71 55 676 12.3 5 98 13

2010 GB 5 26 21 301 14.3 1 36 36

TOT 32 109 82 1051 12.8 7 147

Graham:

Career Statistics

YR TM G TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK

2010 NO 15 44 31 356 11.5 5 66 23

TOT 15 44 31 356 11.5 5 66

Graham has played in a total of 15 games, although he was not a big part of the offense early. Finley, has played for 3 years, and only played in 32 games. While I agree that Finley is a great reciever, I just don't see how 2 players as similar as these 2 are, are looked upon sooo differently.

 
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While I don't doubt Finley's ability, the risk involved with takig him at his current ADP is too rich for my blood.

The question that I will ask all of the supporters in this thread...

What are your expectation for Jimmy Graham, and if they aren't as high, why?

Both TEs have a very small sample size, albeit good stats, to pull from. Both have elite QBs and play for high powered offenses. They also both seem to be very athletic similar body style. Yet Graham can be had multiple round later in drafts, which to me seems like the value play.
3 reasons:1. Graham's sample size of the final 8 games of the season gives him a 616/10 projection. Not bad, but it does not show a passing offense built around his talents. Simply his ability to be a target in the red zone.

2. Drew Brees MO on spreading the ball around to all of his targets. 9 players had 29 or more receptions for the Saints last year. The year before that, 7 had more than 39. Despite the fact that Brees has averaged 4692 passing yards/season the last 3 seasons, the Saints have produced but 2 1000 receiving seasons (both by Colston and the highest was 1074).

3. Eye test - I've actually seen Finley take over games. Haven't seen that with Graham yet. My exposure may be limited, but Graham has really yet to show that he can dominate so we don't necessarily know if he will. Finley already has.
Just to clarify with everyone stating about how Graham has only played in 8 games...

Finley's Career Stats:

Career Statistics

YR TM G TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK

2008 GB 14 12 6 74 12.3 1 13 56

2009 GB 13 71 55 676 12.3 5 98 13

2010 GB 5 26 21 301 14.3 1 36 36

TOT 32 109 82 1051 12.8 7 147

Graham:

Career Statistics

YR TM G TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK

2010 NO 15 44 31 356 11.5 5 66 23

TOT 15 44 31 356 11.5 5 66

Graham has played in a total of 15 games, although he was not a big part of the offense early. Finley, has played for 3 years, and only played in 32 games. While I agree that Finley is a great reciever, I just don't see how 2 players as similar as these 2 are, are looked upon sooo differently.
Would you agree that the elite TE's...the ones that drive the big numbers are the ones that can 1) consistently provide match-up issues downfield for the defense based on their size/speed/catching ability? I'm talking about the Gates/Gonzo (in his prime) type players OR 2) Accumulators who will get 90-100 receptions like Clark/Witten?What I would say is that Graham to me hasn't shown either ability and as far as two is concerned, I don't think he ever will with Brees as his QB based on Brees M-O. He never slants the field to any particular player.

Graham had 31 receptions last season. He had 3 20+ receptions.

In the last 2 seasons, Finley has 76 receptions of which 16 have gone for 20+ yards.

That's a significant delta and really shows that at this juncture...while Graham has some nice size dimensions, he has to demonstrate improvement to reach a level at which Finley was already producing at, and producing at an elite level (not many WR's or TE's can claim a 1 out of 6 percentage here). Has Graham proved he can beat a LB up the seam and make the catch consistently enough to where it's become a main staple of the NO offense? I would say no...for Finley, it was clear until he got injured that this was a major part of his game and the GB offensive attack.

Now you can argue that maybe the offense has changed in Finley's absense...and perhaps that's true. But if you have a guy like Finley who has this as part of his arsenal, it's easy to work back in the game plan.

 
Everything I'm reading on him makes it seem like he's 100% healthy. Has there been any reporting anywhere that may indicate he's not 100%?

 
Anyone plan on having the Rodgers/Finley or Rodgers/Jennings connection? If so which do you go with?
I already have Rodgers in a 10 team keeper PPR and I have the 9th pick and would love to add him. I know the hype was so big last year that almost any mention of elite numbers this year kind of gets laughed at but its almost as if this is a 'buy low' oppertunity with him this season as a TE4 or 5. I could see him posting 75-1000-9 this season and being the star everyone thought he was going to be last season.
 
Vastly overrated. I'd dump him if I could but everybody in my league is watching this game and nobody's going to take him after this performance.

To think I could've had Jimmy Graham two rounds later and have my TE starter for the next 5 years makes me sick.

 
'Luke Skywalker said:
Vastly overrated. I'd dump him if I could but everybody in my league is watching this game and nobody's going to take him after this performance.To think I could've had Jimmy Graham two rounds later and have my TE starter for the next 5 years makes me sick.
I'd give you Dallas Clark for him :hophead:Seriously, he's still a top 5 WR. Witten, Gronk, Graham, Finley, who else?
 

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